Uber’s Pipedream

[N201MKTurbo]

10 minutes ago, steingar said:

Yeah, in the Zone.  I'd like to see them try that here, in the rain, sleet, slush and snow.  Good luck with that.  Hell, Zonie humans can't even drive worth shit here.  Then again, for all I know they can't drive for shit int he Zone, either.

I'd like to see that too.

BTW, I could drive fine there....

There are plenty of poor drivers around here. There too I suspect. 

[Cyril Gibb]

2 hours ago, ShuRugal said:

This particular "argument" always bothers me.  The answer is obvious: the car is going to be programmed to do the exact same thing a human driver would do: preserve the occupants.

If you can find me an actual real-world example of the following scenario of someone who is in a situation where there is an imminent collision between a car-slaying object and an innocent bystander, where they have the option to choose one or the other, and they are able to distinguish what those two items are, recognize the consequences of hitting each of those objects, choose which they would rather hit, recognize the actions needed to take to change the course of their vehicle, and put it all into action in the half a second they have before the point of no return is passed... I'll eat my hat if you can find a single person who *chose* self-sacrifice while running on adrenaline and instinct.

 

In those scenarios, you're lucky if you recognize one of the the pending collisions before it occurs.  If you not only recognize both, but are able to make a rational choice between them, then your reflexes are straight out of the Matrix.

How would you prefer your hat?  Smoked, boiled or baked?

About 18 years ago, driving my pristine Fiat 124 Spyder on the way to work one winter morning, I crested a hill heading to work.  The conditions were unfortunately optimal to melt the snow on the road in the south facing downhill where the sun was, but froze the running water in the shaded area farther down the hill.  I was sliding down the hill at about 30 mph initially and accelerating slowly with the brakes locked up.  There was a school bus unloading kids farther down the hill.  I chose a telephone pole.  No more Fiat 124 Spyder.

I gave that example because I experienced it.

[Tommy]

I know this is going to piss off many of you guys out there but I don't think normal style of flying is any more difficult than driving. In fact it's EASIER *gasp* and that's why automation was easily adopted many decades back but the car industry is only very recently embracing the technology with faster sensor and computing power. 

The key, however, is not automation, is A.I. The ability to learn, analyse, and make decisions like a seasoned pilot especially in emergencies. As much as we like to pride our self as superior aviators, George has and will always be a better pilot than all of us. But comes the day when Georgina - the one with the brain and a sexy voice - is able to tell George how to fly right in 99% of the time...

Read the recent Plane&Pilot article on Intelligent Autopilot System and you know it's not a question of if but when.

I, for one, has started counting the number of days I have as a pilot.

 

[Tommy]

[Tommy]

Case and point - and this is not to take anything away from Sully's heroic effort and brilliant airmanship - if AI was used to fly the plane and to coordinate the airspace. 1 second is merely all it would take for the decisions of turning back to be made and the stricken plane was capable of landing on 3 different La Guardia runways. The whole event would be a non-event news-wise. The pax would be re-booked on a different flight later of that day. And the insurance cost to the industry will be two brand new engines. 

Here is the provocative question:

If you were a stakeholder in this scenario, who (or what) would you choose to fly the plane? Sully or Georgina?

[Tommy]

With the development of highly reliable electric motor, BRS, and IAS (intelligent autopilot system) plus Uber's 70 billion market cap value....

I don't think Uber is dreaming. 

And sadly this will only drive young would-be pilots away when unemployment is almost certain at the end of their training.

[N201MKTurbo]

UBER's pipe dream comes to an end right here in Tempe!

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-southeast-valley/tempe/tempe-police-investigating-self-driving-uber-car-involved-in-crash-overnight

 

[DonMuncy]

On an only slightly off-topic note, I saw on CNBC today that some bunch working on self driving vehicles reported that it was necessary for the safety driver to take control of the vehicle once every .08 miles. If that is true, it would only confirm what I have suspected. I have real difficulty believing that, no matter how good the programming is, having a vehicle be able to go from on place to another will be very problematic. 

[gsxrpilot]

The tragedy in Tampa will be a minor setback in the grand scheme of things. I'm sorry but most of you gentlemen seem to be making the same arguments that I read about in history books back when horses were the norm and cars were a new thing. And later with airplanes. This is an inevitable march forward and there's no stopping it.

There are some significant problems that will likely arise from this rapid and inevitable course to full AI, but driverless cars killing pedestrians won't be the issue. That will be solved.

[N201MKTurbo]

16 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

The tragedy in Tampa will be a minor setback in the grand scheme of things. I'm sorry but most of you gentlemen seem to be making the same arguments that I read about in history books back when horses were the norm and cars were a new thing. And later with airplanes. This is an inevitable march forward and there's no stopping it.

There are some significant problems that will likely arise from this rapid and inevitable course to full AI, but driverless cars killing pedestrians won't be the issue. That will be solved.

I'm sure you are right. They have probably downloaded all the data and already have a software fix to see someone at night, walking in the shadows, wearing dark clothes.

BTW that was in Tempe, AZ not Tampa. Just a few miles from me.

[gsxrpilot]

5 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I'm sure you are right. They have probably downloaded all the data and already have a software fix to see someone at night, walking in the shadows, wearing dark clothes.

BTW that was in Tempe, AZ not Tampa. Just a few miles from me.

And that software fix was likely created without any human intervention either.

[N201MKTurbo]

3 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

And that software fix was likely created without any human intervention either.

They predicted it in the sixties:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064177/

And copied many times sense...

[EricJ]

2 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I'm sure you are right. They have probably downloaded all the data and already have a software fix to see someone at night, walking in the shadows, wearing dark clothes.

BTW that was in Tempe, AZ not Tampa. Just a few miles from me.

I'd be surprised if they're using only optical sensors.   Radar and other active sensors would seem necessary to me.

2 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

They predicted it in the sixties:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064177/

And copied many times sense...

"THAT IS TOO MUCH VERMOUTH"

[N201MKTurbo]

47 minutes ago, EricJ said:

I'd be surprised if they're using only optical sensors.   Radar and other active sensors would seem necessary to me.

"THAT IS TOO MUCH VERMOUTH"

We can coexist, but only on my terms. You will say you lose your freedom, freedom is an illusion. All you lose is the emotion of pride. To be dominated by me is not as bad for human pride as to be dominated by others of your species.

[steingar]

The day an autonomous vehicle can drive through an Ohio winter I'll be sold.  I don't expect to see that in my lifetime.  I don't expect to see that in the lifetime of any of my students.  There's a reason these things are only in the Zone.

[bradp]

Not gonna happen any time soon.

Unfortunate.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/20/us/self-driving-uber-pedestrian-killed.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well

[ShuRugal]

On 3/19/2018 at 3:37 PM, N201MKTurbo said:

UBER's pipe dream comes to an end right here in Tempe!

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-southeast-valley/tempe/tempe-police-investigating-self-driving-uber-car-involved-in-crash-overnight

 

 

"One of the self-driving cars was involved in a crash a month later, after a car failed to yield to the Uber vehicle and hit it"

Seems like a common theme:  If you drive (or bicycle) into a car, you end up in a wreck with that car, regardless of who (or what) is driving it...

[jaylw314]

They might solve the car-hitting-pedestrian problem, but what will they do to solve the subsequent carjacking/robbery-by-standing-in-front-of-car-to-keep-it-from-moving problem, or the vandalize-by-spray-painting-the-hood-while-standing-in-front-of-car-to-keep-it-from-moving problem?

So far, the one thing technology has not been able to solve so far is the fact that there is never a shortage of criminals and assholes in the world.

[ShuRugal]

3 minutes ago, jaylw314 said:

They might solve the car-hitting-pedestrian problem, but what will they do to solve the subsequent carjacking/robbery-by-standing-in-front-of-car-to-keep-it-from-moving problem, or the vandalize-by-spray-painting-the-hood-while-standing-in-front-of-car-to-keep-it-from-moving problem?

So far, the one thing technology has not been able to solve so far is the fact that there is never a shortage of criminals and assholes in the world.

As many cameras as the cars are covered with, and the ability to continuously transmit data home... it'd be one dumb son of a bitch to hijack a smart car....

[DonMuncy]

Can anyone tell me how a self driving car can make a turn on a non standard intersection. I understand how it can get within the limits of GPS accuracy, but what about "within" that range. I have seen a lot of intersections without very clearly defined edges. Do they have sensors that can differentiate between dirt and dirt on top of paving?

[N201MKTurbo]

12 minutes ago, ShuRugal said:

 

"One of the self-driving cars was involved in a crash a month later, after a car failed to yield to the Uber vehicle and hit it"

Seems like a common theme:  If you drive (or bicycle) into a car, you end up in a wreck with that car, regardless of who (or what) is driving it...

The NTSB is here right now. The consensus from the police on this seems to be that a car with an alert human driver would have hit the pedestrian too.

[N201MKTurbo]

5 minutes ago, DonMuncy said:

Can anyone tell me how a self driving car can make a turn on a non standard intersection. I understand how it can get within the limits of GPS accuracy, but what about "within" that range. I have seen a lot of intersections without very clearly defined edges. Do they have sensors that can differentiate between dirt and dirt on top of paving?

They seem to do pretty well at it. I keep telling people that I live in the epicenter of self driving cars. My drive home from work is six miles. and not the busiest road around. I counted six on my way home. They were all WAYMO. The UBERs are all grounded.

Edited March 20, 2018 by N201MKTurbo

[ShuRugal]

2 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

The NTSB is here right now. The consensus from the police on this seems to be that a car with an alert human driver would have hit the pedestrian too.

Looking at the diagram of the scene, it looks like she was jaywalking in a blind curve, having stepped off a landscaped median?

I saw the article mentioned there was a safety driver in the car, and he never took any action either, so I would assume that the police report is dead on for this one.

 

Unfortunately, this will still likely be all over the news, and bandied about as evidence of murdering robot cars by everyone with a bone to pick and a drum to beat on the subject...

[gsxrpilot]

9 hours ago, steingar said:

The day an autonomous vehicle can drive through an Ohio winter I'll be sold.  I don't expect to see that in my lifetime.  I don't expect to see that in the lifetime of any of my students.  There's a reason these things are only in the Zone.

I'll take that challenge. I'm 50 and I expect I'll see it in my life time.

The naysayers on this thread seem to be expecting that software will have to be programed to handle every possible contingency. But not so, the software is self learning and redeveloping its self. And it can do this much faster than humans can learn anything.

I do some work in this field and the curve towards this AI is not linear by any means. It's very steep and going vertical quickly. Expect a few more years of this and then it will all of a sudden be done.

[N201MKTurbo]

1 minute ago, ShuRugal said:

Looking at the diagram of the scene, it looks like she was jaywalking in a blind curve, having stepped off a landscaped median?

I saw the article mentioned there was a safety driver in the car, and he never took any action either, so I would assume that the police report is dead on for this one.

 

Unfortunately, this will still likely be all over the news, and bandied about as evidence of murdering robot cars by everyone with a bone to pick and a drum to beat on the subject...

I'm very familiar with that intersection. My Wednesday night skate group skates through there, in the dark, a few times a month. We regroup there. That road doesn't have a lot of traffic at night and a lot of people speed through there. It is a little piece of desert mountain in the middle of the city. I have no idea why a pedestrian would be there and why they would dart out in front of a car. It is quiet there you can hear cars a half mile away. She was probably looking at her phone with ear phones in.