Uber’s Pipedream

[NotarPilot]

I couldn’t help wanting to share this article about Uber’s delusions of grandeur about trying to get an aircraft designed, certified and running a 135 operation in two years.  I couldn’t help but shake my head (Hate to use that phrase} while reading this.  Am I the only one that thinks they’re off by about 10 years?  Uber has obviously done ZERO research about the FAA.

https://phys.org/news/2017-11-uber-sleek-taxi.html?utm_source=vertical-daily-news-news-from-the-web&utm_campaign=vertical-daily-news&utm_medium=email&utm_term=news-from-the-web&utm_content=V1

Uber says it will bring its flying taxis to Los Angeles in 2020 (Update)

November 8, 2017 by Tracey Lien, Los Angeles Times

In just over two years, Uber says it will let commuters soar over Los Angeles' snarled traffic in flying taxis.

 

The ride-hailing firm announced Wednesday that L.A. will be one of the first cities served by UberAir, which it says will begin ferrying passengers across the region in electric aircraft in 2020.

Aviation manufacturers such as Embraer, Bell Helicopter, Pipistrel, Aurora Flight Sciences, and Mooney Aviation will supply and pilot the aircraft. Uber will operate the software that passengers use to book a trip and take a commission, much like with Uber rides on the ground.

"We're trying to work with cities in the early days who are interested in partnering to make it happen, while knowing that there will be pitfalls along the way," said Jeff Holden, Uber's chief product officer, explaining why the company chose Los Angeles and Dallas as the first cities to test the service.

"L.A. is a model city for this in that it's highly congested from a traffic perspective, and there's not a great mass transit relief on the horizon," Holden said.

UberAir differs from UberChopper, a helicopter service the company has in the past offered during events such as the Coachella music festival, or during summertime for trips between New York City and the Hamptons. Rather than offering the service as a luxury product (trips to Coachella Valley from Los Angeles cost passengers $4,170 each way), Uber envisions UberAir as a commuter option, with fares comparable to taking an UberX car ride.

The efficiency of electric aircraft brings "the price point down dramatically" compared with helicopters, Holden said.

Just like with self-driving vehicles, Uber says it plans to eventually develop aircraft that fly themselves - removing the cost of a pilot and subsequently lowering fares.

By the 2028 Olympics, Holden said, the company believes Angelenos will be making "heavy use" of UberAir. When the service is in full swing, he anticipates that "tens of thousands" of flights will be performed each day across the city.

The city of Los Angeles has shown initial support for the project, with Mayor Eric Garcetti saying L.A. is the "perfect testing ground for this new technology." But a spokesperson for the mayor said conversations about regulation, environmental effects and zoning had not yet started.

Designs for the aircraft - which differ from helicopters in appearance, technical features, efficiency and fuel consumption - are yet to be finalized. Proposed take-off and landing zones equipped with aircraft charging stations have not yet been built.

In a white paper published last year, Uber outlined hurdles the company is likely to face, including infrastructure challenges, pilot training and certification and air traffic concerns.

The company has taken steps to address some of those issues: It announced Wednesday that it signed an agreement with real estate developer Sandstone Properties to build take-off and landing hubs at Los Angeles International Airport and in downtown L.A., Santa Monica and Sherman Oaks in time for a 2020 launch.

The company has also partnered with NASA to develop new unmanned traffic management systems intended to enable appropriate air traffic control for aircraft flying at low altitudes in urban environments.

Despite the momentum behind the project, Jim Harris, a partner at Bain & Co. who leads the firm's aerospace and defense practice, said the regulatory timeline tends to be longer than companies expect.

Certification from the Federal Aviation Administration for commercial aircraft can include two years of rigorous testing. On top of that the company must ensure the safety and stability of the batteries that will power the aircraft. And then the company will need to win over consumers, Harris said.

"When you have a pilot in the aircraft, you'll see consumer adoption pretty fast," he said. "But for some autonomous experiments, it's going to take awhile for consumers to be comfortable being in an air taxi without a pilot."

Harris said he could see a commercial electric aircraft service launch within the next 10 years. But for a larger-scale service that's economically viable?

"More like 15," Harris said.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-11-uber-sleek-taxi.html#jCp

 

[Jerry 5TJ]

Who says Uber will bother with certification?   That doesn't sound like their business model so far.  

[201er]

1 hour ago, NotarPilot said:

Aviation manufacturers such as Embraer, Bell Helicopter, Pipistrel, Aurora Flight Sciences, and Mooney Aviation will supply and pilot the aircraft. Uber will operate the software that passengers use to book a trip and take a commission, much like with Uber rides on the ground.

ROFLMAO! 

Does Mooney even know they've been volunteered for certifying an aircraft in 2 years?

[steingar]

I have been told that without autonomous vehicles Uber looses and will continue to loose money on every fare. But agreed, this sounds utterly farcical.

[gsxrpilot]

Autonomous vehicles are coming and coming quickly. And once they get here, they will quickly take over. I do believe that once autonomous vehicles become the norm, it will quickly happen for aircraft which will allow for this type of air taxi service. I agree that 2020 sounds very optimistic, but it won't be long after that.

[N201MKTurbo]

Last night I saw two UBER self driving cars that appeared to be racing!

A few months ago they seemed to drive very cautiously, they seem to be getting more aggressive lately. Maybe they are learning from the local drivers.

The east valley of the Phoenix area is the Mecca of self driving cars. I probably saw 50 of them last night.

I know we have large operations from Google, UBER, GM, Ford, Intel and I keep seeing more that I can't identify. The external sensors are changing at a fantastic rate. Almost weekly they seem to get smaller and more production looking.

[carusoam]

Uber recently got a new CEO.  The fun times and party atmosphere is coming to an end....

Extending this business model to different cities is a challenge.  Different states and countries is even a larger challenge.

Extending the model to Different modes of transportation, with different government onlookers....

I wouldn't be an investor, unless Using uber currency, like bitcoin....  (need to be ready to accept a complete loss, while swinging for the fences...)

Reading how much an air taxi service costs from Manhattan out to Long Island.... The half hour flight was in the multiple amu range....using a helicopter...

the efficiency brought by Uber is nice, but probably isn't going to be enough to bring air taxi services to the blue collar working class...

People that want to travel efficiently by small airplane, purchase a Mooney...  

Anyone have an automatic braking sensor/system on their car?  If yes, have you used it yet?

Best regards,

-a-

 

[N201MKTurbo]

So, nobody has ever built an electric tilt rotor, but UBER thinks they are going build one, perfect it, certify it and put it into widespread service in two years?

This would make the Apollo Moon Mission look like child's play.

It sounds a lot like the Muller SkyCar which has been two years away from production for the last 50 years!

 

[gsxrpilot]

Full disclosure here... I'm a big fan of Uber. I know they've got their problems, but I use them every week in some country somewhere in the world. Last week it was Poland, this week Saudi Arabia and next week it will be Bolivia/Argentina. I don't have to worry about cash in the local currency. I can see where the car is on the map and how long it will take to get to me. If the directions aren't clear, with a push of a button I can call or text the driver my location, i.e. hotel entrance. By using Uber Black or Uber Lux, I'm assured of a limo like car and a very professional driver.

We can see autonomous vehicles all over the world. I'm in Dubai tonight and Tesla has just opened up here and is very popular, primarily because of the autonomous mode. In the land of Lambo's, Ferraris, Bentley's and Rolls, $100K+ for a car is not a big deal. The automation is a big deal.

Finally, think of remote controlled flying machines just 5 or 10 years ago. I remember when it was much more difficult to fly RC airplanes than the real thing. But now, drones/quadcopters are super easy to fly, largely automated, and very safe with safety increasing with leaps and bounds every day. I got a DJI Spark a couple of weeks ago. It took me 5 minutes to learn to fly it. It won't let me fly it into obstacles and warns me if I'm within 5 miles of an airport or controlled airspace. It didn't even come with a controller, just use your phone or tablet.

You can be sure the flying taxi's won't be airplanes or helicopters that we're used to today. Again, 2 years is aggressive, but 20 years isn't.

[flyboy0681]

Exactly what I said about Uber's plans earlier in the year, even using the word "pipe dream".

 

 

[Cyril Gibb]

I really can't see a future for self-driving cars unless the technology improves beyond imagination and the legislative framework changes dramatically.  

Technology: I'd love to see a video example of how well the sensors would adapt to being salt and slush covered at night in blowing snow through a construction zone where the lane lines crisscross.  Add to that our neighborhood in downtown Toronto with pedestrians jaywalking, cyclists not paying attention, motorcycles driving between lanes of traffic and electric wheelchairs buzzing about.  What about a self-driving car tooling along at 60-70 mph on a multilane highway getting a technical error.  Does it just stop?  Carnage.

Legislative/Liability:  When a self-driving car is sliding on ice with a choice of running over a bunch of school kids or hitting a telephone pole, which does it choose?  Somebody somewhere has to write that decision tree. When people purchase a self-driving car, will they be able to select either altruistic software (hit the pole) or selfish software (hit the kids)?  Would you buy a car that chose strangers over your own family?

I realise that some (many?) human drivers are even worse but it's clear who's responsible/liable for accidents.  Inevitably, a self driving car will kill an innocent person.  Who is liable?  The car owner?  Th programmer? The sensor manufacturer?  Before these are allowed, somebody will have to step up to being liable... tough call.

[N201MKTurbo]

 

I don't think I would fly any of these things higher then I'm willing to fall.

How would like to fly with 16 lawnmower blades right next to you?

[flyboy0681]

Just now, Cyril Gibb said:

I really can't see a future for self-driving cars unless the technology improves beyond imagination and the legislative framework changes dramatically.  

 

I agree with most of what you said, but technology does have a way of advancing to the point where we eat our words. I wonder what was said when Whittle was working on the jet engine in the 30's. But one thing I do remember from a little over 40 years ago was when Airbus introduced the A-300 and mentioned extended over water flights in it, Boeing put out a full page ad in a major paper stating that the flying public would never fly over open water in a twin jet. That I remember vividly.

However, I still can't see this Uber enterprise working as described.

 

 

[Garryowen]

5 hours ago, NotarPilot said:

 

I couldn’t help wanting to share this article about Uber’s delusions of grandeur about trying to get an aircraft designed, certified and running a 135 operation in two years.  I couldn’t help but shake my head (Hate to use that phrase} while reading this.  Am I the only one that thinks they’re off by about 10 years?  Uber has obviously done ZERO research about the FAA

 

Blade is doing just this in NYC right now much to the chagrin of Uber and Lyft. Blade is using local part 135 charter outfits to staff and fly the aircraft and they are taking taking a percentage of the 'charter'.  They pretty much sprung up overnight. 

It works for the NYC area because of the gluttenous supply of helicopters available for charter.  Other markets might be more challenging. I can see it working in LA and maybe Chicago. 

How many charter companies out there are flying Mooney's? There are a few with Bo's and Cirrus'. 

Here is the link to Blade: http://www.flyblade.com

[gsxrpilot]

42 minutes ago, Cyril Gibb said:

I realise that some (many?) human drivers are even worse but it's clear who's responsible/liable for accidents.  Inevitably, a self driving car will kill an innocent person.  Who is liable?  The car owner?  Th programmer? The sensor manufacturer?  Before these are allowed, somebody will have to step up to being liable... tough call.

This has already happened and it was shocking how it was a non-event with regards to the sales of Tesla's, news coverage, etc. While not in every little country town, but it seems that people are already accepting that autonomous vehicles are here and even with their flaws, they are better drivers than humans.  It's inevitable and I fully expect that over the road truckers to start loosing jobs to autonomous trucks within the next 20 years.

41 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I don't think I would fly any of these things higher then I'm willing to fall.

How would like to fly with 16 lawnmower blades right next to you?

I'm pretty sure everyone looked at the Wright brothers the same way.

[flyboy0681]

Not sure where I read it, but a study concluded that if all cars on the road were self-driving, fatalities would be cut by over 96%. On the surface that sounds outrageous, but if you think about it, nearly all accidents are caused by a bad human judgement. Take away those judgement calls and you remove most of the accidents, whether driving under the influence, slamming on the brakes on a very slick road or plowing into the car in front of you. I think there's something to it.

[johncuyle]

I seriously doubt we'll see self driving cars within the next decade.  They're hard to get working under ideal circumstances.  Cars need to operate under sub-optimal circumstances.  Like at night in fog and driving rain with half the sensors broken.  I doubt anyone is going to get close to that level of reliable autonomy anytime soon.  Self-flying aircraft are easier in some ways since the only non-fixed obstacles are other aircraft and most (but not all) of them will be reporting their position within a few years so there's less to hit, and the regulatory structure is already built around grounding them if there's a meaningful equipment failure.  But the FAA won't even certify 60 year old ignition and fuel injection technologies for our aircraft on grounds they require electricity.  They won't certify an all electric aircraft for at least another 200 years.

[N201MKTurbo]

Just now, johncuyle said:

I seriously doubt we'll see self driving cars within the next decade.  They're hard to get working under ideal circumstances.  Cars need to operate under sub-optimal circumstances.  Like at night in fog and driving rain with half the sensors broken.  I doubt anyone is going to get close to that level of reliable autonomy anytime soon.  Self-flying aircraft are easier in some ways since the only non-fixed obstacles are other aircraft and most (but not all) of them will be reporting their position within a few years so there's less to hit, and the regulatory structure is already built around grounding them if there's a meaningful equipment failure.  But the FAA won't even certify 60 year old ignition and fuel injection technologies for our aircraft on grounds they require electricity.  They won't certify an all electric aircraft for at least another 200 years.

Come to Tempe. You can see them right now. They are everywhere. They are in heavy traffic with lots of pedestrians.

I have screwed with them with my bicycle and I'm still alive.

If you don't think they are coming you are wrong! They are already here.

[johncuyle]

Just now, N201MKTurbo said:

Come to Tempe. You can see them right now. They are everywhere. They are in heavy traffic with lots of pedestrians.

I have screwed with them with my bicycle and I'm still alive.

If you don't think they are coming you are wrong! They are already here.

Don't need to.  We have one in our parking garage at work.  I don't work on that project, but I am a programmer, and I've seen other people's code.  I'll take my chances with my own reflexes, thanks.

[flyboy0681]

Just now, johncuyle said:

Don't need to.  We have one in our parking garage at work.  I don't work on that project, but I am a programmer, and I've seen other people's code.  I'll take my chances with my own reflexes, thanks.

Although meant as a defense mechanism, reflexes get people killed. Look no further than a person who swerves to miss hitting a cat and wraps the car around a tree. 

[gsxrpilot]

12 minutes ago, johncuyle said:

I seriously doubt we'll see self driving cars within the next decade.  They're hard to get working under ideal circumstances.  

 

2 minutes ago, johncuyle said:

Don't need to.  We have one in our parking garage at work.

These two posts don't make sense. First you say we won't have self driving cars, then say there is one at your office?

Self driving cars are here. You don't have to buy one yet, but they are very much here. I've seen them many times at various places in California and Arizona. Technology is rapidly improving and the issues you raise have either been addressed, or will be within a few years easily.

[johncuyle]

Just now, flyboy0681 said:

Although meant as a defense mechanism, reflexes get people killed. Look no further than a person who swerves to miss hitting a cat and wraps the car around a tree. 

You're not thinking of this from a human error perspective.  Driving a car gives you, personally, a lot of opportunities for error.  Software gives hundreds of people millions of chances for error.  Even though a lot of the technology behind self driving cars relies on machine learning, results from those trained algorithms aren't perfect and the learning process itself requires data which is marked up by humans.  Or data marked up by machine driven processes which has been trained using machine data marked up by humans.  With self driving cars you're making a choice between who to trust your life to, yourself or a few hundred programmers.  It isn't that the programmers are necessarily bad, most are very good, it's just that they're human and software provides massive room for error. 

Also, keep in mind that one of the major companies working on self driving cars is Google, and Google is an advertising company.  You going to trust your life to software written by an advertising company?  Hard pass.

[johncuyle]

1 minute ago, gsxrpilot said:

 

These two posts don't make sense. First you say we won't have self driving cars, then say there is one at your office?

Self driving cars are here. You don't have to buy one yet, but they are very much here. I've seen them many times at various places in California and Arizona. Technology is rapidly improving and the issues you raise have either been addressed, or will be within a few years easily.

Makes perfect sense.  Self driving cars exist.  Self driving cars which any sane person would trust with their life don't.

[N201MKTurbo]

I must say they behave better than the human drivers....

They are more courteous when changing lanes (if you signal).

They don't spend all their time driving looking at their phones.

They go the speed limit.

They will yield to other cars in almost all circumstances.

They actually stop for pedestrians in crosswalks.

They never drink and drive.

They seem to notice everything around them. They never have inattention.

[gsxrpilot]

Just now, johncuyle said:

Makes perfect sense.  Self driving cars exist.  Self driving cars which any sane person would trust with their life don't.

Ok, but that wasn't in your original statement. 

And for making gross generalizations about "any sane person", I'm pretty sure people have been making the same claim about every new technology for probably millennia. People certainly said that about cars and airplanes when they were both new and untested.