Discussion: Getting better at long term weather planning and products

[autopatch]

Late yesterday afternoon, I was told that I need to be in Baton Rouge on Tuesday, so I am taking this as an learning opportunity and exercise which gave me five days to plan. I've blocked off Sunday afternoon and all day Monday to make the four and a half hour trip. Last night, looking at the Day 4 and Day 5 Surface Prog charts, there is a high/low boundary that extends from the Oklahoma panhandle to the VA/NC border and that line continues to march steadily south in the subsequent days. Looking again this morning, not much has changed.

The last available product to show both prog and forecast combined is the 60 hour which shows chance of rain from Maine to Arizona encompassing the entire SE to the Florida Keys. Since I don't find kind of "blanket" forecast all that helpful in making this decision, I'm looking to this group and more experienced folks for help to figure out what I'm not seeing that I should be seeing.

Given the weather products available now, planning for a potential 8/14 from Dayton (DAY) to Baton Rouge (BTR) on VFR, what would be your thought process and what products would you be looking at and why. I'm also aware from the Weather Channel about Invest 99L which right now has a 10% chance of turning into a hurricane later next week.

Thanks in advance for your feedback.

Edited August 10, 2017 by autopatch

[ArtVandelay]

I use this for big picture outlook

http://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

and search for Skew-T soundings , I use an app SkewTLogPro, great for deciding on what altitude you need to fly.

and 12 hours before, I check TAFs/generic forecasts along the route.

[carusoam]

AP,

Important question for setting a base line for discussion....

are you VFR only?

Do you have the ability to get graphic weather while in flight?  ADSB in on an iPad?

If VFR only, you have the power to turn around... 

Three levels of weather knowledge used around here....

1) online weather continues to improve...

2) ADSB and XM in the cockpit is pretty good... caution: can have a delay in delivery and still show an up to date time stamp.

3) lightning detector for avoiding thunderstorms... a no fly area...

4) +1 Skew T... your weather skills are top notch when you have this level of tool in your box.

Best regards,

-a-

[PaulM]

It is too far out to really know, keep watching, and when you get to the < 60 hour prog charts you will have better information.   Remember that all of those light green areas are "some rain/storms"  Dark green is "definitely storms"
 

www.windy.com does some nice visualization with time forecast. 

AOPA

https://www.aopa.org/wx/#chart=usceilviswind

Good graphic visualization of VFR,MVFR,IFR,LIFR.  

Foreflight MOS

https://www.aviationweather.gov/gfa

So, Day 5 prog chart, large high over IL... you will have no problem getting to southern AR (Monroe, Vicksburg).   Watch the overnight cycling of IFR/fog in LA which will preclude early morning VFR, but have midday-afternoon VFR.. Today you probably would want to bend to the west via LittleRock.. coming in behind the Low. 

Look every day and say "could I have made it today?  How about tomorrow?"    There is a cold front across OK-NC all week... but it isn't embedded with low ceilings.   What are those t-storms?.. are they afternoon cyclical?

This would be a go for me.. IFR,  XM weather + ADSB + Strikefinder.   Fly as far as you can up to the storms, and with VFR ceilings below the clouds you can  work your way in.

This flight was IFR only for the last 20 mins or so, and I was in VMC with a view of the ground and good "turn around" options most of the way:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N98JT/history/20170519/1730Z/1N7/KGYY

 

 

Edited August 10, 2017 by PaulM

[Jeff_S]

Anthony raises a good point...are you IFR certified?  If so, there's not much to do right now as it's too far out.  I would keep an eye on Prog Charts and as you get closer they will be more meaningful.  I also look at the MOS extended ceiling and precipitation charts, but they mostly just follow what the prog charts are saying.

Really, it's the day before when you'll start to formulate a meaningful plan...absent some massive front moving through which can be obvious a bit earlier. What we're getting this time of year are just standard summertime buildups from a ton of moisture being sucked up out of the Gulf, and those are hit or miss.  If you've got any sort of in-cockpit weather, then the strategy is to stay out of the clouds, ask ATC for deviations around the buildups, and go about your merry way.

If you're VFR, then it's even easier really.  Just look at the storm buildups and the general ceiling and visibility for your route on the day of the flight. If the ceilings are overall VFR, then just plan to fly beneath the ceiling and avoid the rain showers and t-storm buildups.  And always know where you can turn around to if things start to close in.

Summertime flying can seem scary...I know I was intimidated initially, but it's actually not as bad as your imagination makes it out to be. Really, the simple answer is, stay out of the clouds, fly around the storms, and enjoy the extra air time you get with any detours!

[autopatch]

AP, Important question for setting a base line for discussion....

are you VFR only?

Do you have the ability to get graphic weather while in flight?  ADSB in on an iPad?

If VFR only, you have the power to turn around... 

Three levels of weather knowledge used around here....

1) online weather continues to improve...

2) ADSB and XM in the cockpit is pretty good... caution: can have a delay in delivery and still show an up to date time stamp.

3) lightning detector for avoiding thunderstorms... a no fly area...

4) +1 Skew T... your weather skills are top notch when you have this level of tool in your box.

Best regards,

-a-

 

 

I am currently VFR only, I do have ADS-B weather in the cockpit with Stratus/ForeFlight, and yes, I can certainly turn around. The 15 minute delay on the cockpit weather helps avoid but certainly can't be used tactically.

 

On the other hand, I'm actively working on my IFR; I want to become more weather savvy around decision making and make sure I'm looking at the right products; I see these types of trip requests becoming commonplace over the next year or two.

 

What I'm gleaning so far is that there isn't any magic around long term planning, just more learning to do. I'll definitely study up on SkewT.

 

Thanks.

 

Chris

 

[ArtVandelay]

I'm IFR, and I start 7 days out, but I have the freedom to reschedule, if it looks bad i have left 2 days earlier and 2 days later. Waiting until the day or two before is not enough time. I look for consistency in the forecasts, I use weather.com and accuweather because they seem to use different models.

[WilliamR]

For longer range planning in addition to the advice given above, I'm partial to http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namsvrfcst/ and http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi

William

[Danb]

Unfortunately AP, there's no magic when dealing with Mother Nature, a great big dose of being conservative until your experience elevates, acquiring the ability to look at the big picture then fly as much as your experience allows. Your flying a real personal airliner over potentially lots of ever changing weather systems. You have the ability to fly 1000 miles plus in 5-6 hours enveloping a ton of changing systems. My recommendation would be to look at your flying as building blocks as you build so should your confidence and ability. Fire up that fire breathing beast in short order you'll be answering all those questions.

[gsxrpilot]

This is the easiest to read for a quick three day forecast. Everything is plotted in 3 hour increments and gives you everything a pilot would want to know. From the home page click Weather than Aviation.

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?state=TX&sta=KAUS

 

[Jeff_S]

Just one more point on the OP's comment about not using NEXRAD "tactically" and that is I would say "it depends." Certainly you can't use it to try to thread your way through small gaps, as they can close up quickly. But you absolutely CAN use it tactically during a flight, in combination with your eyeballs, to pick a path around the build ups during your flight and make it to your destination. That's what we all do down here in the South this time of year.

The main question of the OP was about long term forecasting tools to use for a flight early next week. Given the weather pattern that we're in, my point is those tools aren't going to help much for this trip. There's just going to be a good chance of buildups every day. So that is where experience and comfort flying around them come into play. But it sounds like a fun trip, so I wish you good luck and tail winds!