Bye Bye AREA FORECASTS (FA)

[Cabanaboy]

AREA FORECAST (FA) TO BE DISCONTINUED 12/31/2015

Taken from AOPA Pilot Magazine:

"...advantages of area forecasts summarize weather by region with a quick overview fronts, lows, highs AND provide cloud layer and cloud top info, and summarize areas or precipitation both current and 6 hour forecast...."

'''wants to move to more graphic breifings..."

"....opponents of Area Forecast cite high metrorogist workload and other realignments...."

I liked using the Area Forecast, particular the cloud layer, cloud ceiling, and top info.

Where else can one find the cloud info forecast?

 

example:

NC
MTNS...BKN050 LYRD FL280. OCNL VIS 3-5SM SCT -SHRA BR. OTLK...IFR
CIG SHRA BR.
PIEDMONT...BKN025 LYRD FL280. OCNL VIS 3-5SM SCT -SHRA BR.
OTLK...IFR CIG SHRA BR.
CSTL PLAIN...BKN050 LYRD FL280. ISOL -SHRA. BECMG 1417 BKN030.
OCNL VIS 3-5SM WDLY SCT -SHRA BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG SHRA BR.
.
SC
MTNS...BKN030 LYRD FL280. OCNL VIS 3-5SM SCT -SHRA BR/ISOL -TSRA.
CB TOP FL350. OTLK...IFR CIG SHRA BR.
PIEDMONT...BKN050 LYRD FL280. ISOL -SHRA. BECMG 1114 BKN030. OCNL
VIS 3-5SM SCT -SHRA BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG SHRA BR.
CSTL PLAIN...SCT050 BKN CI. BECMG 1215 BKN045 LYRD FL280. ISOL
-SHRA. OTLK...VFR SHRA BECMG 2301 MVFR CIG SHRA BR.

[DXB]

Good question.  I found learning FAs a nuisance during PPL training.  But now as I head into instrument, I actually want to know some more cloud info.  

[gsengle]

How bout a graphical cloud layers/tops forcast which they can generate automatically... They have the data, I use the adds flight plan tool to get it now.

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[M20F]

Pirep, Skew-T, or http://midwestflyer.com/?p=3828

When it really matters to me I call local departure on phone and ask them what the tops are and they ask somebody, advantages to be close to a major airport.  

[gsengle]

Pireps are spotty, few bother with a simple tops reports, the airliners don't care. Skew t is only specific locations and requires interpretation - and inputs to their available computer models already - they just need to graphically present the data... IMHO. Not sure why they don't.

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[M20F]

Pireps are spotty, few bother with a simple tops reports, the airliners don't care. Skew t is only specific locations and requires interpretation - and inputs to their available computer models already - they just need to graphically present the data... IMHO. Not sure why they don't.

 

 

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I don't disagree with any of that but you asked what the options are.  

[gsengle]

I actually didn't ask, not that this isn't helpful. I just don't get why they won't put out a graphical tops forecast, since we know they have it.

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[M20F]

I actually didn't ask, not that this isn't helpful. I just don't get why they won't put out a graphical tops forecast, since we know they have it.

Apologies, I confused you with the original poster. 

[gsengle]

Yup, and I like the last link. But why do you think they don't put out a graphical tops forecast? Not enough confidence?

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[M20F]

Yup, and I like the last link. But why do you think they don't put out a graphical tops forecast? Not enough confidence?

 

 

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It is coming according to the articles I read, just not ready yet. 

http://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2015/October/06/Area-forecasts-to-be-discontinued-during-2016

[gsengle]

Oh cool, will send in comments. They didn't mention tops explicitly that I saw...

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[aviatoreb]

I always found our textual area forecasts to be archaic compared to anything graphical, such as the Canadian Graphical Area Forecasts products such as this:

https://flightplanning.navcanada.ca/Latest/gfa/anglais/Latest-gfacn33_cldwx_000-e.html?Produit=GFA&Region=33&Langue=anglais&NoSession=&Mode=graph

and

https://flightplanning.navcanada.ca/Latest/gfa/anglais/Latest-gfacn33_turbc_000-e.html?Produit=GFA&Region=33&Langue=anglais&NoSession=&Mode=graph

available at

https://flightplanning.navcanada.ca/cgi-bin/CreePage.pl?Langue=anglais&NoSession=&Page=Fore-obs%2Fgfacn-map&TypeDoc=html

[gsengle]

I like those a lot

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[Robert C.]

SkewT plots will have to be the solution if they don't incorporate the Tops/Clg info on other charts/pages.

There are several but https://skewt.meteor.com/ is the one I use the most.

Robert

[gsengle]

Much prefer the adds flight plan tool, which shows you relative humidity for the vertical cross section of the atmosphere your route cuts up to something like 18 hours out... Hint if it's not 90%+ relative humidity, you're not in a cloud...

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[Deb]

From Scott Dennstaedt, posted on Beechtalk:

Bob Gardner wrote:

Much has been said in this forum about the future demise of the area forecast and the concurrent loss of tops forecasts. Poking around in the LockMart weather pages I found a color-coded Mosaic Echo Tops chart. Is anyone using this resource?

I keep hearing pilots talk about the "loss" of a tops forecast when the area forecast is finally retired. Not sure why they think a tops forecast it being tossed aside?
 

Anyway, the new product called the GFA will essentially resemble something like the HEMST. You'll be able to find all of the details of the legacy area forecast integrated within a tool such as this. That will include a tops forecast of some sort.  
 

Echo tops are great for understanding the magnitude of a convective event and is not a good representation of cloud tops. It's more useful for those pilots flying in the upper flight levels. In other words, it's not going to tell you that you can fly over a stratus deck that has tops at 12,000 ft.

 

Complete thread here:

http://www.beechtalk.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=42&t=114398

Scott is well respected in the weather world. He now works with ForeFlight.

[Cabanaboy]

my example shows more than just tops, i am a VFR flyer and the cloud layer info is pretty useful.

example:

NC
MTNS...BKN050 LYRD FL280. OCNL VIS 3-5SM SCT -SHRA BR. OTLK...IFR
CIG SHRA BR.
PIEDMONT...BKN025 LYRD FL280. OCNL VIS 3-5SM SCT -SHRA BR.
OTLK...IFR CIG SHRA BR.
CSTL PLAIN...BKN050 LYRD FL280. ISOL -SHRA. BECMG 1417 BKN030.
OCNL VIS 3-5SM WDLY SCT -SHRA BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG SHRA BR.

 

i love these low level prog charts for cloud/turb/fronts etc info

Edited November 2, 2015 by Cabanaboy

[Robert C.]

Much prefer the adds flight plan tool, which shows you relative humidity for the vertical cross section of the atmosphere your route cuts up to something like 18 hours out... Hint if it's not 90%+ relative humidity, you're not in a cloud...

 

 

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Good point, had forgotten about that...clunky as it is it does give you the info. 

Thanks for reminding me

[gsengle]

It's also no longer the "experimental" adds tool, it's been released I guess...

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