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Future of Mooney


bill98

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On 2/18/2019 at 2:13 PM, M016576 said:

The GA fleet kind of reminds me of the auto situation on Cuba.... some REALLY cherry, fully restored ‘57 chevy’s and fords over there... and some others.. well... that run.  But not a whole lot in the newer model years....

i suppose that’s changing now, though (Cuba, not GA...)

This cracks me up!   There are some truly amazing bondo artists in Cuba, and most of those REALLY cherry '57 Chevy's and Fords are mostly bondo, with Subaru engines and Hyundai transmissions.   Ford and Chevy parts have been unobtainable in Cuba forever.  They get their used asian cars from the D.R. and Jamaica, who got them used from Japan and REALLY used them up- throw in lack of oil changes and tons of salty warm rainwater and you have a serious case of autocanibalism supported by Bondo!  Luckily our GA situation is not so bad, or we would be figuring out how to attach a radiator to our Mooney's.  :D

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1 hour ago, Fred₂O said:

This cracks me up!   There are some truly amazing bondo artists in Cuba, and most of those REALLY cherry '57 Chevy's and Fords are mostly bondo, with Subaru engines and Hyundai transmissions.   Ford and Chevy parts have been unobtainable in Cuba forever.  They get their used asian cars from the D.R. and Jamaica, who got them used from Japan and REALLY used them up- throw in lack of oil changes and tons of salty warm rainwater and you have a serious case of autocanibalism supported by Bondo!  Luckily our GA situation is not so bad, or we would be figuring out how to attach a radiator to our Mooney's.  :D

Not particularly on point but I always tell people who are inclined toward socialism that they should take a socialist vacation in a place like Cuba or Venezuela and come back and tell me how it works out in real life. Folks in such places  can’t get or afford new Chevys, and they certainly aren’t making or flying Mooneys any time they want in free airspace. It is certainly ironic that it is supposed to be an egalitarian system but the only ones who can afford life’s  luxuries are the party elites and their cronies.

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I wonder if the state of things in Cuba has anything to do with an almost 60 year old embargo?
Clarence

No embargo in Venezuela. Same results. That being said I’m not sure I would categorize either country as socialist. Both have communist dictatorships with zero democracy. The people and military in power have all the wealth. The rest of the country starves.


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The Future of Mooney depends a lot on the Present of Mooney...

China is a big place.  With a lot of people...

Their middle class is growing in a SIMILAR fashion to the US...

Their middle class can benefit from GA in a similar way as we do...

Anyone seen the latest on trade deals between China and The US?

Our president and theirs are getting together soon... as the discussions have been going on for a while at a pretty high level...

Its at the Billions stage, and commodities... it hasn’t reached Millions and GA planes...

Expect this to go on for a while...

Last I checked... Mooney is a privately held company, headquartered in China...

At least one MSer CFII has been to China to train Mooney pilots...

Keep in mind... anything written on MS, is possibly read by anyone, anywhere in the world... we have MSers around the world...

PP thoughts only, not a world economist...

Best regards,

-a-

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4 minutes ago, carusoam said:

The Future of Mooney depends a lot on the Present of Mooney...

China is a big place.  With a lot of people...

Their middle class is growing in a SIMILAR fashion to the US...

Their middle class can benefit from GA in a similar way as we do...

Anyone seen the latest on trade deals between China and The US?

Our president and theirs are getting together soon... as the discussions have been going on for a while at a pretty high level...

Its at the Billions stage, and commodities... it hasn’t reached Millions and GA planes...

Expect this to go on for a while...

Last I checked... Mooney is a privately held company, headquartered in China...

At least one MSer CFII has been to China to train Mooney pilots...

Keep in mind... anything written on MS, is possibly read by anyone in the world... we have MSers around the world...

PP thoughts only, not a world economist...

Best regards,

-a-

Don’t have to go to China to find Chinese pilots training... every pilot mill in the country is cranking them out.  I know the pattern at DVT is often full of students with thick Chinese accents.

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China is in need of pilots and engineers (two topics I am familiar with)... many study in the US... and other countries...

Not sure if any of those people are buying Mooneys, yet.... or for a while... or how long until...?

It takes a long time to go from school to work to saving dough to having a Mooney...

 

Where is the future of Mooney...? That is my interpretation of the title of this here fine thread...

I’m not sure why this topic came up... but, since we had a discussion on private vs. public companies the other day...

Present day Mooney is an interesting topic...

Stay strong Mooney... Stay strong! :)

Best regards,

-a-

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Mooney doesn't ask my advice, but if they had, I'd have told them the weight savings from the new composite fuselage components should have been used to add a BRS option instead of a second door.  Whether anyone actually bought the BRS option or not is immaterial - it's about staying in the conversation with people who equate a chute with safety and lack of a chute with danger.


It’s true that Cirrus sold hundreds of planes with chutes, but such airframe modifications are extremely expensive and time-consuming.

Focus on those buyers—do we think 100% of them only bought because of that feature? That’s unlikely. But even if only 10% of those buyers would consider an airplane without a chute, and bought a Mooney, that would double or triple Mooney sales.

Based on how many of us choose to fly planes without chutes, I’ll bet the number of Cirrus buyers who would consider an un-chuted plane to be much more than 10%. Mooney has to reach those people looking at a new Cirrus in 2019 and 2020, and close them.
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So at high volume the manufacturing cost per unit would decrease.  Say you triple volume and cut unit loss by 50%, overall loss still increased by 50%.
It's a joke from SNL, from long ago (when they were funny). The skit had a "money changer". Two 5's for a ten, four a 20, and so on. Someone asked him how he made money. His reply, "volume, volume, volume."
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6 hours ago, M016576 said:

Don’t have to go to China to find Chinese pilots training... every pilot mill in the country is cranking them out.  I know the pattern at DVT is often full of students with thick Chinese accents.

also go to my airport in Florida, HWO and you’ll hear plenty.  In fact, s Chinese company even bought my flight school so they could keep as many coming out of the pilot puppy mill as possible.  They will literally go from passing their final checkride here to right seat on an airbus/Boeing.

It’s too bad GA flying in China is almost non-existent due to a lack of small airports.

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2 hours ago, neilpilot said:

So at high volume the manufacturing cost per unit would decrease.  Say you triple volume and cut unit loss by 50%, overall loss still increased by 50%.

In  a similar situation I had a first class hoagie shop (submarine sandwich for those unaware), who was busy as heck making the best sandwiches in south Wilmington De, I kept telling owner to increase cost per item,nooo, or cut out some product, can't do that I'll lose business, Bill it seems as you do more business your monthly loss increase's then who is stealing. let me know your lining your pockets I'll leave you alone, I decided to order about 6 different types of hoagies, went to the store to pick them up, went over to the scale took  the sandwich's apart and presto Bill your losing $$$ on each sandwich, cut you product or raise prices or close your doors before your broke.  Fast forward 4-5 years, Bill is bankrupt, house is second mortgaged credit's in the toilet. Moral or this story, hell if I know? Mooney can't be competitive with their  current style of costing. 

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11 hours ago, carusoam said:

The Future of Mooney depends a lot on the Present of Mooney...

China is a big place.  With a lot of people...

Their middle class is growing in a SIMILAR fashion to the US...

Their middle class can benefit from GA in a similar way as we do...

Anyone seen the latest on trade deals between China and The US?

Our president and theirs are getting together soon... as the discussions have been going on for a while at a pretty high level...

Its at the Billions stage, and commodities... it hasn’t reached Millions and GA planes...

Expect this to go on for a while...

Last I checked... Mooney is a privately held company, headquartered in China...

At least one MSer CFII has been to China to train Mooney pilots...

Keep in mind... anything written on MS, is possibly read by anyone, anywhere in the world... we have MSers around the world...

PP thoughts only, not a world economist...

Best regards,

-a-

 China is a perfect example in my opinion because it is unquestionably a capitalist economic system and has been for some time which accounts for their growing to the world economic power that they are today. It has always struck me as amazing though that they continue to call themselves communist, because communism is principally a form of economic system ( it of course is also a political system) which is antithetical to capitalism. They recognized long ago that  communism and it’s  little brother socialism does not work as an economic system.  China’s government is really a form of centralized dictatorship that calls itself communist  so that the ruling elite can continue to retain power. 

Edited by Bravoman
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13 hours ago, M20Doc said:

I wonder if the state of things in Cuba has anything to do with an almost 60 year old embargo?

Clarence

No more so as the situation in Iran, Venezuela, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Sudan, and others.  

A really interesting read to share   

https://www.amazon.com/The-Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Politics/dp/1610391845?ie=UTF8&dpID=51rJWjD28HL&dpSrc=sims&preST=_AC_UL160_SR107%2C160_

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How many of you have been to Cuba? I have.

How many of you have been to Sudan or Somalia? I have.

How many of you have been to China, or worked in China? I have.

How many of you have lived in a country under a Communist dictatorship? I have, five years.

How many of you talk about stuff you know nothing about...?

*BTW this is all as a private citizen, not a member of the US military or government.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Danb said:

In  a similar situation I had a first class hoagie shop (submarine sandwich for those unaware), who was busy as heck making the best sandwiches in south Wilmington De, I kept telling owner to increase cost per item,nooo, or cut out some product, can't do that I'll lose business, Bill it seems as you do more business your monthly loss increase's then who is stealing. let me know your lining your pockets I'll leave you alone, I decided to order about 6 different types of hoagies, went to the store to pick them up, went over to the scale took  the sandwich's apart and presto Bill your losing $$$ on each sandwich, cut you product or raise prices or close your doors before your broke.  Fast forward 4-5 years, Bill is bankrupt, house is second mortgaged credit's in the toilet. Moral or this story, hell if I know? Mooney can't be competitive with their  current style of costing. 

Their cost is in line with the others. So it leaves it to inferior marketing or an inferior product... You decide.

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1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

How many of you have been to Cuba? I have.

How many of you have been to Sudan or Somalia? I have.

How many of you have been to China, or worked in China? I have.

How many of you have lived in a country under a Communist dictatorship? I have, five years.

How many of you talk about stuff you know nothing about...?

*BTW this is all as a private citizen, not a member of the US military or government.

 

 

How many of you have flown a lawnmower? I have. 

Sorry could not resist. A little humor before this thread gets out of control. 

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Mooney will never dig out of their hole. I spent weeks and weeks at mooney. I’ve said it before - it’s like clockwork. Work starts and ends exactly on time. So do breaks. Breaks go longer than assigned. Nice people, ok work ethic, lots of bad morale from frequent layoffs and changes in ownership. “Here comes someone new to tell us how to do it better...” common thought. There some exceptional and genuinely nice and decent people. They’re just too battered and their model is about 40 years out of date.

The company is now Chinese owned. Many American aviation companies are. As a patriot, I don’t like it, but it is what it is.

As for Mooney’s for $200k: never happen. I recently studied Icon A5’s as an example: carbon fiber plane, Rotax engines, Garmin 796 avionics, you couldn’t make it much more cheaply. The price? It exploded from $160k to a present $360k and growing. Even if you could manufacture for a lower cost, the market wouldn’t allow the lower price. Even Ocasio Cortez would tell you that’s not happening. I believe the right number of sales for Cirrus last year was 180 SR22T’s. Regular sr22s were only 135. How many 200k mooney’s do you think you want to sell to make it worthwhile?

1. Employees at Mooney would have to be far more efficient. Expect a Chinese made Mooney, for less, in China, not certificated.

2. Your composite airplane, 4 seater, would have to go through certification. Too many government employees at the FAA have a vested interest in keeping the cost high.

3. You would have to find a certificated power plant that would be substantially less than the current Lycoming and Continental prices; Rotax isn’t much better. Diesel engines? Diamond thought about it as did Cessna. If you hold your breath too long you will pass out.

4. While the new world of experimental avionics is making huge inroads in General aviation, no one has stepped up to give Gar-Min a run for their money. Not yet.

5. Electric engines in the world of drones are making huge improvements; battery improvements have also come about. That said, the days of Tesla and ideally better batteries with enough time to keep a GA airplane aloft for a while are still a ways out.


Mooney is its own worst enemy. I remember when the price point was at $500k and the marketing people there tried to bend their heads to talk about the return of the J model for $200k. Our American economy, complete with “free this”, “free that”, and college teacher making north of $100k along with every other increased cost will just not let it happen in America.




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7 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

How many of you have been to Cuba? I have.

How many of you have been to Sudan or Somalia? I have.

How many of you have been to China, or worked in China? I have.

How many of you have lived in a country under a Communist dictatorship? I have, five years.

How many of you talk about stuff you know nothing about...?

*BTW this is all as a private citizen, not a member of the US military or government.

 

 

Does flying over the top of these places in an American warplane count?

just kidding!  Kind of.... 

Edited by M016576
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On 2/18/2019 at 6:26 PM, M20Doc said:

A Van’s RV-10 quick build kit is north of $60K, no engine, propeller, avionics or instruments, paint or interior.  Many owners bump into $200 with them doing the building of a simple airplane.  Hoping a manufacturer could build and sell a 4 seat airplane for the same is a pipe dream.

Clarence

 

And that expense is with experimental avionics and an experimental engine (both of which are often made side by side with their certified counter parts), right?

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