Monday Moring Quarterbacks

[MyNameIsNobody]

Why do pilots always immediately try to dissect what was the cause of an aviation mishap?

I believe it comes from a strange place.  Doesn't make me angry.  Just makes me scratch my head and wonder why?  Most pilots know how to fly an airplane and know there are a lot of reasons/contributing factors (often in the same event) that result in a crash.  Do you do the same thing when there is an auto accident on the news?  A shooting?  A stabbing.  Those events are also likely complicated and worthy of introspection...I personally feel badly when aviation accidents and national events occur, but I don't try and dissect the why?  It strikes me as a little dark when the body is not yet even cold.  Am I the only one that feels this way?  Not judging.  Just trying to understand why, perhaps the same as you all ultimately are with the event...

[gsengle]

Many of us are engineering types. We live in a world of cause and effect however complex. Understanding how things work and how they go wrong is key to risk management. Seems entirely normal to me. After all it's the same reason we have the NTSB...

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[Mooneymite]

27 minutes ago, MyNameIsNobody said:

Why do pilots always immediately try to dissect what was the cause of an aviation mishap?

People are just naturally inquisitive.

Some just want to appear smarter than the mishap pilot and others want to assure us, "they would never have done such-and-such".

I don't understand why some people speculate on crashes before all the facts are in, or speculate on facts reported by notoriously unreliable media.  Some of this speculation could be quite hurtful to relatives and loved ones.  Why not wait?

Seems like respect for our fellow pilots would over-ride premature ignorant speculation.

[bonal]

Seems natural that there would be discussion of an air plane incident on an aviation website forum. Especially when so close to home i.e. A Mooney. I certainly meant no disrespect to the pilot or the loved ones and from the little known of this most recent incident my thought went to a medical problem since the reports on the pilot indicate he was very experienced and if it had been a mechanical problem would likely have communicated the nature of his problem. And looking at the track of the crash was perhaps flying this thing as best he could right to the last.

I don't know if there is an acceptable time frame to begin discussing such things I think it's whatever feels right to the individual. Those that don't can wait until such time as they think is appropriate and or respectful. 

[StevenL757]

Agree with MM.  I think we're indeed curious by nature and want to know the "why" for many reasons...some simple, some deeply philosophical.  With regard to aviation incidents, I'd like to think we not only want to know the "why", but use what we learn to keep from potentially putting ourselves in similar situations.

Profound, yet intriguing original post.

[Guest]

I'd say in some cases it morbid curiosity, no different than rubber necking on the freeway when there is an accident.  If it's a learning experience we are after we would wait for the NTSB report.

Clarence

[aviatoreb]

I think it is a very very healthy activity for us to do some degree of talking about and thinking about what may have happened and what did happen once the NTSB comes out.  I can see how it may seem like we are dancing on the grave gleefully playing holier than thou throwing out wild speculations as to what happened and acting as if we each might not do such a dumb thing.  For sure, speculation can cross over to that darker side and we should avoid.  But actively thinking about and talking about, what happened or even what might have happened I think is mental training for each of us, reinforcing how we might react if our moment comes (knock on wood) in split second decision in a dangerous situation.  Or to help us to remember to not make a poor decision when looking up at the sky and sitting on the ground but in a hurry to get somewhere. Or not to make the wrong decision when it is time to load the airplane, or to maintain the airplane.  There are a million mistakes we could make, and remembering to think about what not to do is part of reinforcing good thinking and good reactions as to what to do.  Even if our actual speculations do not end up being correct in a given situation or a given crash, talking through the possibilities I think is very useful and healthy and one of the beneficial things we do here on this forum.  I apologize to any victims and victims families that we, or I, may have offended inadvertently in this activity.  A tragedy is a moment that deserves reflection.

Edited July 31, 2016 by aviatoreb

[gsengle]

Even speculation in the absence of facts is healthy, imho. We know what we are doing and the discussion is a series of thought experiments which leave us more sophisticated with any luck about this sometimes dangerous activity we all partake in.

If it makes you uncomfortable, no reason to participate.

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[Andy95W]

I'm with Scott.  It's only been about 36 hours, maybe we should wait a couple of days until we hear something a little more definite than the initial reports, which the media is sure to screw up.

[gsxrpilot]

The term Monday Morning Quarterback refers to those who speculate and criticize but are never in the game themselves. This is not the case here. We are all in this game and it's a dangerous one. With every tragedy such as this I believe its prudent to speculate and think of all the possible ways this could have happened and vow not to let them happen to us.  Eventually we'll know the actual cause, but until we do, it's valuable to contemplate all the possibilities that might lead to the type of accident. 

[bonal]

By talking about not talking about it aren't we still talking about it? Flying is what we do and when tragedy strikes I don't think it disrespectful to have dialogue about the incident I think most if not all on MS are very thoughtful and caring individuals. I think when something like this happens it touches all of us and some people like to express themselves to help with grief others prefer to keep to themselves, just one mans opinion 

[Danb]

What Erik says makes sense  to me, the question was ' why do pilots immediately dissect the cause of..'

I believe it may be a mental aspect of self assuring we have the requisite knowledge, skill etc..it couldn't happen to me. Not being a psychologist I have no clue why.

Critiquing these events may help one of us in the future, if/when I have an event I'd hope something good would come of it, in examining what happened to me just helps one pilot from an occurrence then I personally would be grateful it saved someone., then again I'm not a psychologist. 

[BDPetersen]

Pilots, at least, should be able to engage in some constructive analysis and then wait the year or more it takes for the facts to come out from the NTSB. It's the instant analysis that the rest of the world attempts that makes me crazy. I recall that the introduction of the CVR was done with great assurances that its contents would never be public. Now its broadcast to the world, it seems. If they can find it.

[Mooneymite]

For those honestly trying to become safer, better pilots, there are thousands of accident reports to study.  Many of these accident reports have been analyzed at a depth a public forum cannot approach.  Speculating on accidents where the available factual data has not been collected, much less analyzed and disseminated, doesn't  seem very useful...at all.  More like rubbernecking at a highway accident.

I would be interested if any of the MS members are bona fide accident investigators, or undergone training for aircraft accident investigation.  Anyone?  I'd love to hear your perspective.

[gsxrpilot]

If you don't want to participate in the speculation, then don't.  

For the rest of us who do, and who believe it's a useful exercise in safety education... if I meet such an unfortunate end, your assignment is to come up with, debate and defend, ten plausible causes for my untimely demise... before the NTSB shows up on the scene. Then don't go do any of those ten. And bonus points if the NTSB ultimate conclusion is in your top 5.

[MyNameIsNobody]

2 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

The term Monday Morning Quarterback refers to those who speculate and criticize but are never in the game themselves. This is not the case here. We are all in this game and it's a dangerous one. With every tragedy such as this I believe its prudent to speculate and think of all the possible ways this could have happened and vow not to let them happen to us.  Eventually we'll know the actual cause, but until we do, it's valuable to contemplate all the possibilities that might lead to the type of accident. 

"We are ALL in the game"...Including spouses family and friends.  100% spot on.  Agree that the title was NOT appropriate and more "attention grabbing".

[Mooneymite]

Just now, gsxrpilot said:

If you don't want to participate in the speculation, then don't.  

You may have noticed I don't.

[201er]

If playing quarterback Monday night helps prevent an accident on Tuesday, I'm all for it. Often times we can learn lessons from accidents before reports come out and do a better job keeping the pilots still flying safer. Sometimes these discussions are wrong in terms of the actual accident cause but may illustrate other safety issues that we can learn from. Just the fact that these theories are brought up as a possible cause, gets us thinking. On the other hand, the cause of accidents are very often (and sometimes even more accurately) predicted. If pilots are capable of analyzing the known facts and predict the cause of the accident, they are becoming better equipped and predicting and preventing the cause of their own accident.

No offense to the involved and families. Nothing good comes out of an accident. But if it can serve to educate and prevent another, then it is slightly less in vain, eh?

[Jeff_S]

I have often asked myself the same question as the OP. The answer I've come up with is that I think we are addressing our own fears. Sure, say all you want about learning from the event so you might avoid it yourself. But let's be honest...the causes of GA accidents are really not that many, and they are well documented in NTSB reports.

I think we speculate about recent accidents as a defense mechanism to bolster our own confidence when we fly. We tell ourselves that we would react differently and that these unfortunate things would not happen to us, and that's the swig of whiskey we need from time to time to help us deal with the risk. I'm not being critical of anyone when I say this...I think it is basic human nature and something that has allowed us to evolve and continue to push the boundaries of experience. 

We allow ourselves to be critical of "the other guy" because it helps us maintain the courage to keep on keeping on.

Just my thoughts.

[1524J]

I don't know about speculation immediately following an accident, but I've learned a great deal from reading and watching accident reports. There are a few that hit really close to home. I don't think I've ever thought to myself "That would never happen to me". Quite the contrary....I often times see myself in the same predicament and it serves as motivation to call my CFI and stretch my limits. Organizations like Mike Elliott's make it easy to contribute in a small way to those who have to deal with the loss of a loved one.

[aviatoreb]

15 hours ago, Danb said:

What Erik says makes sense  to me, the question was ' why do pilots immediately dissect the cause of..'

I believe it may be a mental aspect of self assuring we have the requisite knowledge, skill etc..it couldn't happen to me. Not being a psychologist I have no clue why.

Critiquing these events may help one of us in the future, if/when I have an event I'd hope something good would come of it, in examining what happened to me just helps one pilot from an occurrence then I personally would be grateful it saved someone., then again I'm not a psychologist. 

I think you hit on something there Dan.

In what I said, I put forward the good side of why to talk about these things - and I still think it is important to think about and talk about what might happen.

But I agree there is a dose of human reaction to hope that these bad things don't happen to ourselves so talking our own emotional self down by distancing ourselves from the possibility.   (And I am also no psychologist).  But as 1524J said, I have learned a great deal too.  I don't tend to react so much "that would never happen to me".  The best we can do to respect the victim is to empathize by understanding that what happened to them could happen to us too.  This is a kind of respect to them, to understand that it could happen to us too.  And then naturally to try to understand what that was, or might have been to break the accident chain if it begins the same way with us.

Edited July 31, 2016 by aviatoreb

[MyNameIsNobody]

I am blown away by the awesome insight here.  Really good stuff.  I learned somethings today.  That makes it a "good day". Thank you all.

[Mooneymite]

For those who want to learn from the misfortunes of others, there is a great site of accident/incident reports:

http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Category:Accidents_and_Incidents

There, but for the grace of God, go I!

 

[mike_elliott]

On ‎7‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 6:40 PM, M20Doc said:

we would wait for the NTSB report

and sometimes this is a version of Monday morning quarterbacking

[320KPH]

On 7/31/2016 at 0:41 PM, Jeff_S said:

I have often asked myself the same question as the OP. The answer I've come up with is that I think we are addressing our own fears. Sure, say all you want about learning from the event so you might avoid it yourself. But let's be honest...the causes of GA accidents are really not that many, and they are well documented in NTSB reports.

I think we speculate about recent accidents as a defense mechanism to bolster our own confidence when we fly. We tell ourselves that we would react differently and that these unfortunate things would not happen to us, and that's the swig of whiskey we need from time to time to help us deal with the risk. I'm not being critical of anyone when I say this...I think it is basic human nature and something that has allowed us to evolve and continue to push the boundaries of experience. 

We allow ourselves to be critical of "the other guy" because it helps us maintain the courage to keep on keeping on.

Just my thoughts.

This reminds me of what Wolfe wrote in The Right Stuff. 

Remember, where the aviators are dissecting the failures of their recently deceased contemporaries, blaming the guy for missing a pre flight item that lead to their demise when "the plane just broke", when there was no justification in ever pre flighting that item? Blaming a guys "poor physical condition" for his failure to overcome an ejection seat sequence failure when ejecting from a stricken Phantom right over the airfield, right in front of them?

I think that we reassure ourselves that the failure could never occur to us, by analysing the failures of others or how could we face a flight, knowing we are fallible humans?

Knowing that we can overcome any obstacles and issues in a flight is critical to maintaining the confidence to keep flying. Admitting that there are some situations facing you that yop=u'll never get out of, that's the driver for the analysis...