Weather Scenarios Go/No-Go Game

[201er]

I would like to pose some weather scenarios for you to consider. It's easy to sit at home and be overly wise until you're actually under the gun making a decision. So let's say the situation is that you have to attend a relative's funeral you just learned about. It's too far to drive in time, impossible to get an airline ticket because you're going from small town to small town, and there's no time to postpone. The only way to make it is if you make the decision to launch. You have several others on board and being there is even more important to them than to you. For each of the following weather scenarios would you go or not? Consider your capabilities and your specific airplane's as well as the reasoning behind your decisions.


Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.

Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.

Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.

Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.

[bnicolette]

That was fun.  

[1964-M20E]

nice

[Andy95W]

Need a maybe/it depends for 3.

Edited April 8, 2016 by N1395W

[carusoam]

Weather takes some of the fun out of VFR flight...

Flying to a funeral adds an unknown to the internal stress.

I'll be asking Brett to come along.

Best regards,

-a-

[201er]

I hope you guys can provide insight to your decision for each scenario, especially if it's a go decision. Explain why you would or would not go.

[Hank]

I only had two GOS, #2 & #4.

#2--five miles and 1000' is a pretty simple approach. Add available alternates, stable weather system, it's a Go.

#4--Convective Sigmets cover huge areas. If this forecast kept me on the ground, I'd fly very little in spring and summer. The wind is fairly strong, I've landed in worse, and in parts of the country these are fairly benign winds. The worst winds I've dealt with were at KRAP, and everyone there said it was a fairly normal day.

good exercise, though. Thanks for putting it up your request for explanations should help a lot. My No Gos?

#1:  33 knots perpendicular to the runway is too much for me. 33 down the runway for departure, I'd have to think.

#3:  1 mile / 300' with a 2° dew point spread is asking for trouble. Few VOR approaches go that low if something happens a and I need to go back. I always like to have the option of returning to land if something happens.

#5:  1 mile / 400', 2° spread and going down. Widespread conditions? A gun would kill us all faster, without all of the up front worry and concern this flight would cause.

What's everybody else think?

[bonal]

I'm VFR so it's a no go this thread is obviously for you IFR folks. Just as well I don't like funerals especially if the next one could be mine.

[ArtVandelay]

There is a lot of it depends:

how long is the trip? Assuming less than 2 hours flight time, only 1 is a no go, I can always turn around. Can also check radar and if current conditions match forecast, and have confidence in forecast.

5, depends on alternatives in area.

i avoid turbulence (no flying in clouds except on the way up or down). So tops are crucial, no TS so isolated or scattered ok, no fronts, and I don't do icing, you mention ground temperatures, not air.

 

[201er]

4 hours ago, bnicolette said:

That was fun.  

Well I know your bird could handle any of them, but can you? What's your take on it with a twin?

[Andy95W]

33 minutes ago, 201er said:

Well I know your bird could handle any of them, but can you? What's your take on it with a twin?

With a twin: all except the crosswind (#1)

[Seth]

Really good exercise Mike!  Will post my reasoning later

-Seth

[MB65E]

I'd wait on 3 to see if improved any. Depends on the airport. I have taken off a few times where I knew I couldn't land where I started from. not the greatest feeling.

4- as long as the Vis stays up and you can see the CBs. I'd try to go VFR on this so I wouldn't get routed thru anything imbedded. 

1 and 5 no thanks. 

-Matt

[Ned Gravel]

4 hours ago, Hank said:

I only had two GOS, #2 & #4.

#2--five miles and 1000' is a pretty simple approach. Add available alternates, stable weather system, it's a Go.

#4--Convective Sigmets cover huge areas. If this forecast kept me on the ground, I'd fly very little in spring and summer. The wind is fairly strong, I've landed in worse, and in parts of the country these are fairly benign winds. The worst winds I've dealt with were at KRAP, and everyone there said it was a fairly normal day.

good exercise, though. Thanks for putting it up your request for explanations should help a lot. My No Gos?

#1:  33 knots perpendicular to the runway is too much for me. 33 down the runway for departure, I'd have to think.

#3:  1 mile / 300' with a 2° dew point spread is asking for trouble. Few VOR approaches go that low if something happens a and I need to go back. I always like to have the option of returning to land if something happens.

#5:  1 mile / 400', 2° spread and going down. Widespread conditions? A gun would kill us all faster, without all of the up front worry and concern this flight would cause.

What's everybody else think?

+1 on these choices and for these very same reasons.  I would attempt number 1 if the crosswind was 25 knots or less.  I have done that.  But over 30 knots may be beyond the capabilities of my rudder.  

[N201MKTurbo]

Everybody talks about dying on number five, but the only problem is going to your alternate. You must have enough gas to get to it and it must be landable. Your biggest fear needs to be wasting a lot of time and money, not dying. If you can't fly to the DH and do a missed and fly to your alternate, you have no business flying IFR. I chose no go on 5 because I'm a cheap bastard and don't  want to risk that much money trying to get somewhere where there is a high probably of not making it and ending up somewhere I don't want to go.

[PTK]

I also feel there are a lot of  "it depends" for all choices given and not so clear cut. But from the choices, as presented, the only probable go for me would be #2. I'd consider #4 but the problem is with "inconvenient" alternates I risk not making it to the funeral after all!

In any case I'm sure the deceased relative being a very reasonable individual would not mind if I didn't make it!

[bnicolette]

It depends is a good answer for just about every trip. #5 however is a definite no go for me.

http://www.flyingmag.com/technique/accidents/aftermath-failure-land

[Danb]

Not enough info. to decide on a few of them, also a couple depends on if one has TKS, as it stands #4 is most likely also depends on wx equip. in the plane. 

I had a similar instance my dad had to have a serious heart op. out of the blue, it was Easter week a few yrs. ago and no airline seats avail. from Philly to Tampa. it was TS most of the way, well I decided to drive, did not make it on time and neither did dad, my step mom disowned me and my brother for not making it down, we drove straight through all night, she told the hospital not to give us any info and had his body shipped out to funeral home, the Pres. of the hospital held the body for us but we had to say we weren't there, she hasn't talked to us since. S.O.B.

Anyway the pressure was on us to fly and I decided not to I still  would not change my decision.

If TKS was available most likely, if i felt good, would do #2, #4 ...#1, 3# and #5 are out, past my plane's capability with me flying it.

[eman1200]

my take is, no matter your rating or personal minimums, based on the way you presented the scenario, they are all NO-GO's.  decision #1 (whether to launch or not) is being highly influenced by a 'must get there' sense of pressure both from yourself and indirectly from your passengers.  "there-is-no-possible-way-we-can-get-somewhere-that-we-absolutely-have-to-get-to-other-than-by-me-flying" is not the way to start out a go/no-go decision.  let me ask this..........what if you were like the average joe shmo..........no pilots license, no plane? 

I know that's not the answer you were looking for, but the way you presented it, I don't like where it's going.  ok, carry on.

[gsengle]

I disagree. External pressure itself is not disqualifying. The question becomes, will I be able to make professional judgements despite the pressure. For many of us, to a good degree, the answer is yes.

If the answer is no, then stand down.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Awful_Charlie]

#1 - No go: Four up with that much cross wind puts me into the "too unhappy" territory. Runway 35 would be marginally better (change the tailwind component into a headwind, and hence get off the ground earlier), but I just don't have the experience in take off in the Mooney in those sort of cross winds. If I had more experience in the >25kt cross wind I might think differently.

#2 - Go with the proviso that I am assuming there is an instrument approach at the destination, or somewhere near enough to let down and go to the destination under the cloudbase (or that the route can be flown all the way below the coudbase and maintaining 500' terrain clearance) then 5sm and 1000' is enough, but would be had work if for a long time. 4dC temp/dew point spread suggests that 1000' is as bad as it should be. Depending on the depth and type of the overcast, and experience of the Pax, may downgrade to a no-go if it is going to be a protracted bouncing around at the cloudbase.

#3 - Go (Probably!): There is an exposure until the weather improves en-route, which might be a mile or three, or 90%+ of the route, the former wouldn't worry me, the latter would. One of the places I often go to sits on a hill, and sometimes in bad vis - a couple of miles away it is CAVOK. Icing is a risk but I'm FIKI, so prime the system on the ground and top up the fluid.

#4 - Go: Can maintain VMC below the CB and keep clear, and if we end up at an inconvenient alternate then we are in no worse position than if we didn't go at all. If Pax are unknown, or known to be nervous flyers, then may convert to a no-go, as the landing ("Arrival!") is likely to be 'sporting'

#5 - No decision: If I have the fuel to make it to the destination and return to the departure point then it would be a go. If due to trip length/W&B limitations I can't have an alternate outside of the area forecast to go below mins, (eg the departure point) then it's a no-go. Also remember the legality of alternates and Wx (1-2-3)

[Marauder]

That was fun.  

Stranger sighting. Momma always said to stay away from strangers! Especially the ones who end up in a Baron.

[Marauder]

For each of the following weather scenarios would you go or not? Consider your capabilities and your specific airplane's as well as the reasoning behind your decisions.

Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.

Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.

Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.

Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.

Scenario 1 sounds eerily like the Mooney accident in the Southwest. No go.

- non turbo (DA), winds too high

Scenario 2 -- would do.

- instrument rated, current, competent and confident.

Scenario 3 -- won't do to destination. I would fly to the fringe and drive the rest of the way.

- sounds like a stationary weather front. Some pilots would do a "look see", but with limited weather information indicating the weather would change, I wouldn't plan on it.

Scenario 4 -- would do depending on factors being known.

-- depends if I'm flying into a small field or one with a larger runway.

-- WX-500 equipped so I can at least see if the storms are materializing.

-- would plan on flying VFR if possible and necessary to stay out of the building towering cumulus.

Scenario 5 -- no go. Sounds like the weather the doctor who died in Delaware was dealing with.

[bnicolette]

Im onboard with you Chris except for #3 which i think you may have got backwards. #3 would be a go for me so long as i had a good departure alternate .

Mike the two engines dont really play into these scenarios for me. The two engines for me is really more of an enroute relaxer flying over unfriendly terrairn during night or low imc.

[201er]

7 minutes ago, bnicolette said:

Im onboard with you Chris except for #3 which i think you may have got backwards. #3 would be a go for me so long as i had a good departure alternate .

Are you FIKI?