Let's play a game - billionaire investor determined to revive Mooney

[1980Mooney]

12 minutes ago, toto said:

When they made all of the investments in the factory, I was hopeful that it would make a modern outsourcing business profitable. So even if they aren’t making brand new Mooneys for the moment, they could be making major components (including composite components) on contract for other manufacturers. 

But I don’t know what I’m talking about. I would need A64 to weigh in on that

Apparently, you missed this.

Key Points:

• "We currently enjoy good margins manufacturing parts for several other aircraft companies: our main challenge is scaling up."
• 35 employees
• "I believe the future lies in composite technology, which allows for rapid production in molds"
• "Our plan includes refining existing models to build more efficiently and increase their useful load."
• Interestingly blames the Trump Administration trade wars for the inability of Soaring America (subsidiary of Meijing Group) to continue funding the business resulting in shut down of aircraft manufacturing.  That means that Mooney remained a negative cashflow sinkhole with every Ultra that they built.

[toto]

4 minutes ago, 1980Mooney said:

Apparently, you missed this.

I doubt I missed it... but that doesn't mean I remember it

Anyway, cool - hope that pans out.  I'd love to see the Mooney factory remain a going concern, even if they can't make new airplanes for the time being.

[1980Mooney]

23 minutes ago, T. Peterson said:

I don’t know whether Mooney can ever make airplanes again or not, but how long can Mooney stay in business building parts for a shrinking fleet? 

It is possible to stay in business building parts for shrinking fleets.  Like True Flight Tiger AA-5. But to do it you have to shrink or "right size" for that business.  You can't continue to carry the overhead, insurance, legal liability, management of a company that thinks it is still a manufacturer of aircraft. 

Commander Aircraft was trying to do it for the 112/114 fleet, but they have now failed completely.

About | True Flight Aerospace

 

[LANCECASPER]

1 hour ago, T. Peterson said:

I don’t know whether Mooney can ever make airplanes again or not, but how long can Mooney stay in business building parts for a shrinking fleet? 

They've gone from 15 employees in 2021 to 35 now, so that's a good sign,

[LANCECASPER]

2 hours ago, philiplane said:

Sorry to say, but the real reason we have fewer GA pilot/owners is due to a lack of enthusiasm for aviation. More on point, we have a generation of soft people who don't like hard work and challenges. They would rather play video games than explore the world. And GA is not simple or easy.

I thought the same, but in 2022 seeing the enthusiasm of the next generation at Oshkosh made me feel differently.

[BlueSky247]

Aye, and the photos I see from the local Young Eagles events show quite a lot of kids lining up for first flight experiences.

 

On the composites thing, I think it would be awesome if they could make replacement wings for the legacy models that are all composite and containing leak-proof fuel cells. Talk about a speed mod! Yes, it would be expensive and hugely impractical but hey, who thought new engine prices in this category would reach six figures?

[EricJ]

57 minutes ago, T. Peterson said:

It may be that the former generations overstated some things, but it is foolish to dismiss all their observations. To gloss over obvious cultural decline, is to learn nothing from the historical decline of many previous civilizations. 

Historically the decline is generally in the older generation's ability to adapt and understand the context of the culture of the younger generation, often called the generation gap.   It's been consistent over history.   Every generation is declined in the eyes of the previous for pretty much all of history, and yet here we are.   If the decline were real then we're the worst of all before us.   In reality we're all pretty much the same, we just deal with the cultural context we grew up in and the perspectives and biases it gives us.

Go volunteer for some youth organizations, like FIRST robotics or something like that, and come away amazed and in awe of the new generations.   

 

[philiplane]

1 hour ago, EricJ said:

Every generation says something similar about those who follow.   It was TV and rock music, drugs, whatever.

We have 50% more population now, why don't we have 50% more pilots? We have fewer total pilots today than in the past. 

[toto]

8 minutes ago, BlueSky247 said:

Aye, and the photos I see from the local Young Eagles events show quite a lot of kids lining up for first flight experiences.

I try to do Young Eagles flights as often as I can, and the kids are - to a one - excited about pursuing aviation, either as a career or as a hobby.

Honestly, I think a significant difference with kids today is that they don’t know anyone who’s a pilot or who owns an airplane, so they’re only really exposed to aviation if they take a proactive step to get involved. 

My local Young Eagles chapter is always at max registration, often many days ahead of the event.

[Schllc]

5 hours ago, LANCECASPER said:

How it takes 229 people to make an airplane a month is beyond me.

Regulatory processes, traceability, liability, compliance, is half or more.  Experimental has almost none of this cost because it’s in your garage (theoretically anyway..). 
certified aircraft compliance is no joke. It’s obviously not all bad, but it’s a bit anachronistic.  
it can only really be abated with volume, because those costs are fixed,   
whatever hours it really took 20 years ago, is easily doubled today. The work ethic, and skill level of the average employee is not the same. I don’t believe it’s aptitude, it’s a cultural shift. It would take longer, and finding enough skilled people wouldn’t be easy. 
if I had a billion to burn, I would fix the gear issue and make an inventory and mucho marketing, supplying dealers, building demand and negotiating what it takes to sell them to establish the price people would pay and create a culture like cirrus.  Finance, lease, manage etc.

I wouldn’t clean sheet a trainer, why not fixed gear on an eagle with bare bones interior, for flight schools lease those to flight schools in bundles too good to pass up.

make the ovation and acclaim in three modes, stripped, equipped, and deluxe, maybe a turbo prop, just for the cool factor.  It shouldn’t be hard with modern modeling software to build a pressure vessel to the dimensions of the cage, but that may be down the road  

The hope would be that you could find equilibrium, and operate a net and then a profit.  It would have to happen in a few years. If it didn’t do it then, it never would. 
 

I would expect to lose almost all of the money within 3-5 years.  
the cool part would be the legacy of 5000 aircraft built and flying because of you. 

[EricJ]

17 minutes ago, philiplane said:

We have 50% more population now, why don't we have 50% more pilots? We have fewer total pilots today than in the past. 

We have a lot fewer blacksmiths, too.

[N201MKTurbo]

15 minutes ago, EricJ said:

We have a lot fewer blacksmiths, too.

I was in Durango a while back. They had a blacksmith. After chatting for a while. He let me into his shop and bang on some steel.

[Pinecone]

10 hours ago, philiplane said:

Sorry to say, but the real reason we have fewer GA pilot/owners is due to a lack of enthusiasm for aviation. More on point, we have a generation of soft people who don't like hard work and challenges. They would rather play video games than explore the world. And GA is not simple or easy.

In general, I agree.  But there are a surprising number of young people learning to fly at my field.  A local community college has an aviation program that has a good number of students. 

Plus quite a few high school age students.

Yes, a good proportion are trying for that high pay airline job, but not all. And even of those who are aiming there, they could end up flying GA.  Either funded by airline flying or not.

[Pinecone]

8 hours ago, toto said:

Honestly, I think a significant difference with kids today is that they don’t know anyone who’s a pilot or who owns an airplane, so they’re only really exposed to aviation if they take a proactive step to get involved. 

And, at least at my home field, people used to be able to come, hang out, listen to and talk to pilots.  Now, people come, fly, and leave.  A lot less social aspect to flying

I am not old enough to have been able to wash planes or help do off jobs for flying time.  But I did do some glider ground crew work for flying time.

[BlueSky247]

@Pinecone you bring up a good point about hangar socializing. I have seen some of that happening at my local training field, but not the others. 

[T. Peterson]

12 hours ago, EricJ said:

Historically the decline is generally in the older generation's ability to adapt and understand the context of the culture of the younger generation, often called the generation gap.   It's been consistent over history.   Every generation is declined in the eyes of the previous for pretty much all of history, and yet here we are.   If the decline were real then we're the worst of all before us.   In reality we're all pretty much the same, we just deal with the cultural context we grew up in and the perspectives and biases it gives us.

Go volunteer for some youth organizations, like FIRST robotics or something like that, and come away amazed and in awe of the new generations.   

 

Time will tell. I would love to be wrong…..but I don’t think so.

[MikeOH]

50 minutes ago, T. Peterson said:

Time will tell. I would love to be wrong…..but I don’t think so.

Unfortunately, I think we all agree that the pilot population is in precipitous decline; we're just debating the reasons.  We all hope to be wrong, regardless.

I just don't think enough credit is given to how truly expensive flying has become for someone starting out, or the middle class that want to own a plane.  Having observed some of today's youth I'm just not as pessimistic about them as others here.  But, I'm willing to have an open enough mind to consider that it's possible culture today plays a negative role.

What I can't understand is the apparent blindness to how huge an effect today's costs to fly play into the problem!  With costs to fly now 3X to 4X (adjusted) from when I learned can you really be surprised that enthusiasm is down?  It seems unfair to blame lack of motivation on the 'bad attitude' of our youth....the cost is a much larger factor, IMHO.

[EricJ]

2 minutes ago, MikeOH said:

What I can't understand is the apparent blindness to how huge an effect today's costs to fly play into the problem!  With costs to fly now 3X to 4X (adjusted) from when I learned can you really be surprised that enthusiasm is down?  It seems unfair to blame lack of motivation on the 'bad attitude' of our youth....the cost is a much larger factor, IMHO.

It's much farther out of reach as a hobby or pastime than it has been in the past, and it's never been great that way.    I took thirty years off from flying because it just wasn't worth the expense compared to other interesting things I could be doing.

So I think you're probably right that now it's pretty much either a career choice or nothing, and it's a big investment to pursue as a career choice.   Compared to how much it would cost to get into other interesting and rewarding careers, the same issues come to bear.   Plus the considerations of the downsides of the industry, like the boom and bust characteristics where you may just be out of work and potentially have to find a different career somewhere along the way.

So it's just not going to be attractive to a lot of people, especially given the other potentially less expensive and less risky options that may present themselves.

It's just the normal ebb and flow and evolution of society.    It is not static, and changes are often large and sweeping.    Look at the distribution of careers fifty years ago and now;  the economies and workforces are barely comparable.   

[T. Peterson]

3 minutes ago, MikeOH said:

Unfortunately, I think we all agree that the pilot population is in precipitous decline; we're just debating the reasons.  We all hope to be wrong, regardless.

I just don't think enough credit is given to how truly expensive flying has become for someone starting out, or the middle class that want to own a plane.  Having observed some of today's youth I'm just not as pessimistic about them as others here.  But, I'm willing to have an open enough mind to consider that it's possible culture today plays a negative role.

What I can't understand is the apparent blindness to how huge an effect today's costs to fly play into the problem!  With costs to fly now 3X to 4X (adjusted) from when I learned can you really be surprised that enthusiasm is down?  It seems unfair to blame lack of motivation on the 'bad attitude' of our youth....the cost is a much larger factor, IMHO.

I agree 100 percent! Unfortunately, I again seem to struggle with properly articulating my thoughts. To blame our young people for the moronic notions of our current social environment is grossly unfair. As you and others point out we all observe some very outstanding young people. However, it is not constructive to obfuscate the corrosive effects that muddle-headed philosophy has had on this generation, our generation and our father's generation. 

I completely agree that the exorbitant cost of aviation simply makes it prohibitive for most young people to pursue. But the gut level question is why is it so expensive? There are a plethora of technical reasons which I am sure we will soon be reading about, but none will answer the root cause. I believe the root cause is our cultural decline evidenced by an increasing sense of entitlement. It most certainly is not the fault of this generation but they mirror even as they are victimized by it.

When Americans first began to view their government as a source of goods rather than the guardian of freedom, the die was cast. When a society desires to vote themselves resources rather than earn them a host of power hungry politicians will rise to indulge them. These despicable men fully understand that when they have the power to take from person A and give it to person B, they own both! Of course they pull this off by appealing to “compassion”. A charactered society would see right through this sham, but alas Americans are blinded in their lust for free stuff.

The economic consequences of these blunders are a government that continually borrows and prints worthless money driving inflation to the point that many things that were already expensive have now become prohibitively so.

I don’t suggest for a minute that this is all there is to it, but government willingness to exploit rather than discourage profligate spending is certainly significant. So while I don’t blame the current generation, neither do I absolve them when they line up to vote for a government that promises to forgive their college debt. The government has no right or authority to forgive that debt and neither does the student have the right to expect it.

 I suspect that someday they will bemoan the profligacy of their children while forgetting their own. Why not? They learned from us.