Are the Bonanza and Baron on the same path as the M20?

[Rick Junkin]

This article from AVWeb this morning says Textron has closed the order books for the Baron and Bonanza. No more details than that. This is worth watching.

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/textron-pauses-orders-for-bonanzas-barons/?MailingID=FLY240227017&utm_campaign=avwebflash&utm_medium=newsletter&oly_enc_id=7809D4413378B7B

Cheers,
Rick

[midlifeflyer]

The airplanes are different but the issues may be similar. Gross generalization, but biggest difference I've noticed between a Bonanza and a Mooney is a Mooney is built for speed and a Bonanza for comfort. Mooneys are sports cars; Bonanzas are family sedans. 

But in both cases we have a series of models which were probably hurt the most by the growth and popularity of airplanes like Cirrus. Modern; fast without retractable gear; well-laid-out ergonomic instruments and flight controls; cabins roomy and comfortable. It had to make a dent on an old design, no matter how good.

[EricJ]

Another significant difference between Textron and Mooney is that Textron may be more apt to support the fleet than Mooney seems to be.   They're certainly way better capitalized with enough related infrastructure to be able to provide support.

[Aerodon]

16 minutes ago, EricJ said:

Another significant difference between Textron and Mooney is that Textron may be more apt to support the fleet than Mooney seems to be.   They're certainly way better capitalized with enough related infrastructure to be able to provide support.

I'm not so sure I agree with that.  For now Mooney seems to be trying to keep their head above water with parts sales and probably contract manufacturing.  That's all they have got.

Once the private equity guys get hold of companies like Hartzell and L3 Avionics, they shamelessly cancel viable products, increase prices by exorbitant amounts etc.

 

Don

 

 

[Shadrach]

8 minutes ago, Aerodon said:

I'm not so sure I agree with that.  For now Mooney seems to be trying to keep their head above water with parts sales and probably contract manufacturing.  That's all they have got.

Once the private equity guys get hold of companies like Hartzell and L3 Avionics, they shamelessly cancel viable products, increase prices by exorbitant amounts etc.

Don

Word around the campfire is that Mooney is no longer ordering parts from vendors. They are only selling pats that are made in house.

[Ragsf15e]

23 minutes ago, Shadrach said:

Word around the campfire is that Mooney is no longer ordering parts from vendors. They are only selling pats that are made in house.

If that’s true, then the intake boot you have as a backup is gonna be worth a pretty penny…

[Shadrach]

On 2/28/2024 at 5:53 PM, Ragsf15e said:

If that’s true, then the intake boot you have as a backup is gonna be worth a pretty penny…

I talked to my IA about repairing a boot with minor fraying but was otherwise structural sound. He said CS3204 tank sealant would be his preference. I’m wondering if it would be worthwhile to reinforce new boots at known weak points.

On a side note Hope to have everything buttoned up before the end of the week. Looking forward to some time to climb tests soon thereafter. Do you think it would be worth while to start a “benchmark” performance thread as a place to catalog real data. With ADSB Exchange it is possible to separate out the optimism from the reality.

[Danb]

3 hours ago, midlifeflyer said:

The airplanes are different but the issues may be similar. Gross generalization, but biggest difference I've noticed between a Bonanza and a Mooney is a Mooney is built for speed and a Bonanza for comfort. Mooneys are sports cars; Bonanzas are family sedans. 

But in both cases we have a series of models which were probably hurt the most by the growth and popularity of airplanes like Cirrus. Modern; fast without retractable gear; well-laid-out ergonomic instruments and flight controls; cabins roomy and comfortable. It had to make a dent on an old design, no matter how good.

Bigger difference Mark is the famed parachute, this seemed to doom the rest of the general aviation fleet. Their model is pretty interesting setting up those that can purchase a million dollar toy and be able to slip into the Cirrus Jet with minimal transaction. Tough to beat 150 knot machine up through the Vision Jet 280 knot with ease. 

[GeeBee]

There was a thread about this on Beechtalk. A Textron engineer (at least he claimed to be) said the problem is insufficient parts pipeline to meet the demand, so they are not taking orders until the pipeline is either filled or they catch up. Given the issues we see with engines, and avionics backlogs, I think that may be have some veracity.

[Ragsf15e]

1 hour ago, Shadrach said:

I talked to my IA about repairing a boot with minor fraying but was otherwise structural sound. He said CS3204 tank sealant would be his preference. I’m wondering f it would be worthwhile to reinforce new boots at known weak points.
on a side note Hope to have everything buttoned up before the end of the week. Looking forward to some time to climb tests soon there after. Do you think it would be worth while to start a “benchmark” performance thread as a place to catalog real data. With ADSB Exchange it is possible to separate out the optimism from the reality.

That would be awesome to have a thread like that.  We could probably start with a post describing how to collect cruise, mpg or climb data from flight or adsb.  Maybe a link to a 3 way groundspeed to TAS conversion website too.  If we did this on a Mooney forum though, people might not like it if they can’t keep claiming 170kts at 8gph!

 I like this one… much more accurate than using the kias from my 55 yo airspeed indicator.

http://www.csgnetwork.com/tasgpscalc.html

[hais]

5 hours ago, Shadrach said:

Word around the campfire is that Mooney is no longer ordering parts from vendors. They are only selling pats that are made in house.

Is the fleet doomed in the short term because of no parts availability? Or are vendors filling orders directly from owners? 

[exM20K]

2 hours ago, Ragsf15e said:

 If we did this on a Mooney forum though, people might not like it if they can’t keep claiming 170kts at 8gph!

Challenge Accepted!  Alt Static: Open.

Well, maybe not in the Acclaim.

What do I win :-)

-dan

[midlifeflyer]

11 hours ago, Danb said:

Bigger difference Mark is the famed parachute, this seemed to doom the rest of the general aviation fleet. Their model is pretty interesting setting up those that can purchase a million dollar toy and be able to slip into the Cirrus Jet with minimal transaction. Tough to beat 150 knot machine up through the Vision Jet 280 knot with ease. 

Maybe. According to this article on the top 10 sellers in 2022, only Cirrus has the parachute. While Cirrus took three of the top five sales spots (the top two with SR22 variants), spots 3 and 4 went to the Cessna 172 and Diamond DA40. I’ve flown 7 of the 10 at various times and see the Cirrus lead as about more than the parachute. 

The model of increasing capability in similar aircraft is not new. It’s always been a good one.  

[Hank]

12 hours ago, Danb said:

Bigger difference Mark is the famed parachute, this seemed to doom the rest of the general aviation fleet. Their model is pretty interesting setting up those that can purchase a million dollar toy and be able to slip into the Cirrus Jet with minimal transaction. Tough to beat 150 knot machine up through the Vision Jet 280 knot with ease. 

The Cirrus sales paradigm is "lifestyle" not aviation. Their planes are designed to make drivers and passengers feel comfortable in the plane, with automotive amenities. And they have auto-style frequent model updates and revisions, where this year's SR is different from the last two or three years' models. Plus the swoopy, plastic form designed using modern computational fluid dynamics and laid up in composite material without rivets--kind of like the luxury cars that Cirrus buyers are driving.

This is more important than the parachute. None of the legacy manufacturers make these continuous updates, and their airplanes look and feel like airplanes, not luxury cars . . . .

[Danb]

With all due respect I went purchasing a new,newer, plane last year we checked  out the cirrus in detail, my wife clearly told me she wouldn’t fly in that piece of crap..Mike Elliott can attest she bought my 2016 Mooney and Mike did my transition. Not making it about the plastic planes I really liked the TTX, I didn’t purchase one based on a Cessna station advising me how much my annuals and maintenance may cost. The high majority of newer pilots wives >>about 10-15 years ago purchased the chute of which the plane came with it. I agree they do market the life style although originally it was the Cirrus way of safety pushing the safety aspect at the spouses. D

[EricJ]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

The Cirrus sales paradigm is "lifestyle" not aviation.

When I came back to flying after a long hiatus it was with a small flight school that was connected to a Cirrus dealer and service center.  Of course I got pitched on the Cirrus stuff, and as soon as they started talking about "lifestyle" I noped out of any interest in Cirrus.   Never regretted that. 

[Rick Junkin]

I rode in a Cirrus for the first time this past Monday. My client is an experienced Cirrus owner and a good stick. I asked a number of questions before and after our flight about powerplant and systems management and the answers generally started with "Cirrus says to do it this way...", which amounted to standardized rote procedures and settings. But they worked, it was easy, and the airplane was comfortable and provided a nice view outside.

The thing Cirrus has achieved is the perception that you can treat the airplane like a car and use it essentially in the same way - jump in, get somewhere fast without much "twiddling" of systems or power settings, park it, and be on with your business. They've made it an easily operable transportation tool. This can be both good and bad, as the accident reports have shown us over time. It really depends on the rounded training and discipline of the pilot.

I'm an aviator and engineer and truly enjoy the things Cirrus has worked so hard to remove from the act of committing aviation. But I can see the allure, almost like moving from a slide rule to an electronic calculator. I could make a slide rule sing, but the kid beside me could use his RPN HP to almost keep up and not need the knowledge or skill required to operate the slide rule. Yes, I eventually got an HP 34C when I could finally afford one. And that may be the difference in this analogy, as I don't think I want to afford the Cirrus cost of ownership. And then there is the whole "lifestyle" thing. I have some good friends that are Cirrus owners and exceptions to the stereotype, but generally I fit better with our Mooniac world view.

So full circle to my original post. I think the key data in this Baron/Bonanza story is that they delivered a total of 10 piston airplanes last year. Cirrus produced 10 piston airplanes per week last year! https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/business-general-aviation/news/21291428/cirrus-aircraft-scrambles-to-keep-pace-with-demand. A bit of apples and oranges because the capabilities are different. But the point is the demand is there for the SR airplanes for what ever reasons, and not so much for a six seat single or twin. I'll be watching with great interest to see what decisions Textron makes in the coming year.

Cheers,
Junkman

[mike_elliott]

2 hours ago, Danb said:

With all due respect I went purchasing a new,newer, plane last year we checked  out the cirrus in detail, my wife clearly told me she wouldn’t fly in that piece of crap..Mike Elliott can attest she bought my 2016 Mooney and Mike did my transition. Not making it about the plastic planes I really liked the TTX, I didn’t purchase one based on a Cessna station advising me how much my annuals and maintenance may cost. The high majority of newer pilots wives >>about 10-15 years ago purchased the chute of which the plane came with it. I agree they do market the life style although originally it was the Cirrus way of safety pushing the safety aspect at the spouses. D

Ah yes,,,the secret to selling Mooney's I have found is to teach the CPA department, herein "the wife" how to gracefully get in and out of one. While not a Mooney salesman nor have I ever been one, both at Osh and at SNF more than one Ultra's were sold after I took the time with the prospect to demonstrate to the wife how to get in one without embarrasing oneself.

Fran on the other hand, had this skill, so it was appropriate to fortify her intellectual CPA gene

 

[GeeBee]

For Textron I think the Bonanza/Baron line is a lot like how refiners view 100LL. Nice little profitable business but no one is going to ramp up for economies of scale. Textron is not going to have a dozen TIO-550's laying around or Garmin G1000 NXI kits. They're going to build to order, make money on each one. If it were clothing the Bonanza/Baron line would be couture shop. There is no ROI in ramping up.

[Brandt]

23 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

Ah yes,,,the secret to selling Mooney's I have found is to teach the CPA department, herein "the wife" how to gracefully get in and out of one. While not a Mooney salesman nor have I ever been one, both at Osh and at SNF more than one Ultra's were sold after I took the time with the prospect to demonstrate to the wife how to get in one without embarrasing oneself.

Fran on the other hand, had this skill, so it was appropriate to fortify her intellectual CPA gene

 

I’m convinced that if we fund a scholarly study concluding that proximity to parachute fabric causes cellulite we’d put Cirrus into bankruptcy.

[N201MKTurbo]

I’m about to board a MAX9 without a parachute. It was nice knowing you all.

[amillet]

49 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I’m about to board a MAX9 without a parachute. It was nice knowing you all.

I just read an article about a Boeing manager who recently quit and says he will not fly on a max

[N201MKTurbo]

Woo Hoo, I made it!

[exM20K]

Best be careful in the desert southwest, @N201MKTurbo

The FAA in August 2023 issued an Airworthiness Directive, a regulation designed to fix an issue with a plane, that "was prompted by a report indicating that use of engine anti-ice (EAI) in dry air for more than five minutes during certain environmental and operational conditions can cause overheating of the engine inlet inner barrel beyond the material design limit, resulting in failure of the engine inlet inner barrel and severe engine inlet cowl damage."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boeing-safety-waiver-737-max-7-withdraws-request/

 

5 minute intervals of engine deice use seems reasonable and workable to me.

Boeing is a troubled company.

-dan

[Igor_U]

6 hours ago, amillet said:

I just read an article about a Boeing manager who recently quit and says he will not fly on a max

Yet he will with not thinking twice, order Uber to get to the airport!!