Looking to buy M20J

[carusoam]

To get a feel for the M20J that was in near perfect condition mentioned above….

@Rmag posted a nice video of it on YouTube…  look for Rmag on YouTube…

It will help match what you get with the price…

Best regards,

-a-

 

[korbike]

Thanks

[ZuluZulu]

On 1/11/2023 at 3:16 PM, ilovecornfields said:

Can’t really blame the guy for trying.

I’ll gladly sell you my Ovation for only half the cost of @201er’s J. 
 

Serious offers only, please.

I, too, want to get in on this, so I will consider offers for my 1994 MSE at the generous discount of $100,000 less than @ilovecornfields is asking here.  Lasties, no take-backsies.

[rbp]

On 1/11/2023 at 4:29 PM, 0TreeLemur said:

capital outlay isn't the dominant cost of aircraft ownership

LOUDER FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK

[rbp]

On 1/11/2023 at 1:51 PM, A64Pilot said:

They said houses aren’t selling because buyers are trying to beat the sellers down on price, but the sellers are wanting last years price for their house.

 

I think the demand for (these particular) airplanes is higher than for houses for 3 reasons: 

1. the number of J models (sadly) goes down every year
2. planes can be moved to a new location, houses cannot
3. someone can rent a house while waiting to buy

[good2eat]

As a recent buyer, I’ll say spend time on all the sales sites, you’ll quickly get a feel for what is and is not priced well.  It’s kind of like the Supreme Court definition of porn - I know it when I see it.

And to other’s advice, be ready to pull the trigger quickly when you find it.  We ended up with a very nice J this way.  Were lucky to have a seller that was fantastic to work with, too.

[0TreeLemur]

34 minutes ago, rbp said:

 

I think the demand for (these particular) airplanes is higher than for houses for 3 reasons: 

1. the number of J models (sadly) goes down every year
2. planes can be moved to a new location, houses cannot
3. someone can rent a house while waiting to buy

I'd add to this:

4. there is still a lot of excess capital in the economy

5. in inflationary times, the standard rules go out the window and assets appreciate while cash depreciates

[Fly Boomer]

10 minutes ago, good2eat said:

And to other’sadvice, be ready to pull the trigger quickly when you find it.

^^^this^^^

[rbp]

59 minutes ago, 0TreeLemur said:

I'd add to this:

4. there is still a lot of excess capital in the economy

5. in inflationary times, the standard rules go out the window and assets appreciate while cash depreciates

Those appliy to houses as well as planes

[A64Pilot]

4 hours ago, rbp said:

 

I think the demand for (these particular) airplanes is higher than for houses for 3 reasons: 

1. the number of J models (sadly) goes down every year
2. planes can be moved to a new location, houses cannot
3. someone can rent a house while waiting to buy

You forgot #4, you have to have a house, but you don’t have to have an airplane.

I’ve watched prices of aircraft drop with all the other luxury items I believe three or four times so far, yes they came back, pretty much but it took awhile.

Number of GA airplanes have been decreasing since what, the middle 70’s? yet that didn’t help keep their value in the 80-82, 1991 savings and loan crisis, the dot com crunch of 01, the housing crunch of 08 and I think 23, but maybe we can spend our way out of it like JFK did? Sort of.

We have actually had a very good, long run, much longer than average, many would say we are over due

[Fly Boomer]

55 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

You forgot #4, you have to have a house, but you don’t have to have an airplane.

I don't know, when I was looking, someone reminded me that I could sleep in my airplane, but I would never be able to fly a house across the country.

[Pinecone]

Two things.

1)  Be ready to act.  Have your funds together.  Maybe even a deposit already in the hands of a title/escrow  service.

2)  Be ready to walk away if there are issues.  Don't start thinking of it being YOUR plane until it IS your airplane.

I went through 4 airplanes before the one I bought.  Some were issues with the planes.  Some were issues with the seller/broker.

One plane I put a deposit on had a questionable engine.  I walked away.  The plane is still on the market 8 months later.

[PT20J]

It seems to me that trying to find an airplane you want to buy and also get a bargain price requires two uncorrelated events to occur simultaneously. I wonder what the joint probability is? 

Sure, it can happen. But, as others have pointed out, the purchase price is such a small part of the overall cost of owning one of these things that I wonder if the real value in getting a lower price isn't primarily emotional rather than economic? 

Skip

[carusoam]

19 hours ago, Fly Boomer said:

I don't know, when I was looking, someone reminded me that I could sleep in my airplane, but I would never be able to fly a house across the country.

I was just getting ready to write that again… 

-a-

[MikeOH]

18 minutes ago, PT20J said:

It seems to me that trying to find an airplane you want to buy and also get a bargain price requires two uncorrelated events to occur simultaneously. I wonder what the joint probability is? 

Sure, it can happen. But, as others have pointed out, the purchase price is such a small part of the overall cost of owning one of these things that I wonder if the real; value in getting a lower price isn't primarily emotional rather than economic? 

Skip

Well, while only one data point, I WAS that buyer.  And, the answer is four years!  It was a combination of finding a plane with what I wanted, one that was consistently and recently flown, priced right, and willingness to pull the trigger.  Having never purchased an aircraft a lot of those years were spent not only getting a good 'feel' for market prices/value but be ready to act; I missed out a couple of times as I 'wanted to think about it for a couple of days'.  Big mistake!  You need to have shopped enough to know a good deal AND be ready to ACT.

So, yes, I got exactly what I wanted at a bargain price.  But to your point, hindsight has taught me the purchase price is not really that critical and if I buy again I'll be willing to pay a premium.  It was an 'emotional' thing as I didn't want to be "that guy" that overpaid and got 'ripped off'.

[katzhome]

3 hours ago, Pinecone said:

Two things.

1)  Be ready to act.  Have your funds together.  Maybe even a deposit already in the hands of a title/escrow  service.

2)  Be ready to walk away if there are issues.  Don't start thinking of it being YOUR plane until it IS your airplane.

I went through 4 airplanes before the one I bought.  Some were issues with the planes.  Some were issues with the seller/broker.

One plane I put a deposit on had a questionable engine.  I walked away.  The plane is still on the market 8 months later.

I had a similar situation.  3-4 planes close and 1 failed the pre-buy for me with cylinder/engine issues.

 

N43CA came available off-market and the sellers did everything I would have requested in the contract and process.  It was the right fit for me.

[carusoam]

On 1/14/2023 at 11:31 AM, rbp said:

LOUDER FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK

this suddenly became super funny… the second time I read it…!

 

-a-

[PT20J]

40 minutes ago, MikeOH said:

Well, while only one data point, I WAS that buyer.  And, the answer is four years!  It was a combination of finding a plane with what I wanted, one that was consistently and recently flown, priced right, and willingness to pull the trigger.  Having never purchased an aircraft a lot of those years were spent not only getting a good 'feel' for market prices/value but be ready to act; I missed out a couple of times as I 'wanted to think about it for a couple of days'.  Big mistake!  You need to have shopped enough to know a good deal AND be ready to ACT.

So, yes, I got exactly what I wanted at a bargain price.  But to your point, hindsight has taught me the purchase price is not really that critical and if I buy again I'll be willing to pay a premium.  It was an 'emotional' thing as I didn't want to be "that guy" that overpaid and got 'ripped off'.

You're not alone. Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work developing prospect theory, a cornerstone of behavioral economics. And research psychologist Robert Ornstein often pointed out that humans are primarily motivated by emotion rather than logic because for much of our evolutionally history quick (emotional) decisions were more advantageous for survival than well-reasoned ones.

[rbp]

On 1/14/2023 at 3:39 PM, A64Pilot said:

yet that didn’t help keep their value in the 80-82, 1991 savings and loan crisis, the dot com crunch of 01, the housing crunch of 08 and I think 23, but maybe we can spend our way out of it like JFK did? Sort of.

You’ve never heard “buy the dip!” ? 
 

all prices fluctuate intermittently. What’s the trend? 

[A64Pilot]

1 hour ago, rbp said:

You’ve never heard “buy the dip!” ? 
 

all prices fluctuate intermittently. What’s the trend? 

Why yes I have.

I believe a dip is coming, likely this year, but it’s just a feeling is all. I do believe if you buy now, your buying close to the peak, not the dip. But the dip may not be a big ole pot hole who knows. I believe we are past the peak, but as always sales slow down well before prices come down. I think sales have slowed, but as I’m not in the market I don’t really know

I bought the Mooney a year and a half ago, after the buying spree had begun, but before it got into full swing. I knew I wasn’t buying the dip but I’m at an age where a couple of years is a significant portion of the time I have left, so I knew I was likely paying 10% or more than I should but what the heck, I’m not 30 anymore.

I bought the house two and a half years ago before I was really ready for a house (we were living on a sailboat at the time) but I knew prices were depressed because many weren’t buying and moving during Covid and I could get a 2% loan, so it was just too good a deal not to buy.

Low prices, free money

To me it was obvious that “free” money was going to kick start a buying spree and prices were going to get stupid, because what was a three thousand dollar house payment was now a two thousand dollar one, but that the real kicker was people could move into a bigger house for the same payment.

But people that bought a house in a bidding war or an airplane will be in for a surprise.

The converse of buy the dip is of course sell at the peak, or at least don’t buy the peak.

Obviously the trick is determining the peak and dip, you can’t not really, but you can usually tell when something is inflated or depressed, so you don’t hit the peak or dip, so what, just don’t buy at the peak.

You know when to not buy? It’s when everyone says you can’t lose and whatever is selling like hot cakes.

Like Tesla for instance, many thought it would continue to climb forever, that in fact Tesla was worth more than GM, Ford and Toyota combined.

Seriously?

[WaynePierce]

Korbike, I'm currently in the Memphis area, own a 1985 J and desperately want to move to your part of the state now that I"m retired. Just waiting on my wife to do the same and we are East bound. I purchased my J three years ago, I was on a mail list that Jimmy keeps on perspective buyers and this J came up. Since taking possession I've updated the Avionics to an Avidyne IFD 550 and moved the existing GNS 430W to the right side and at the same time installed ADS-B for the mandate with a Lynx 9000 as well as updating the Audio Panel to an Avidyne unit. My next upgrade was last year when I had two GI 275's installed and got rid of the vacuum system. At the end of last year my Auto Pilot (KAP 150) decided it was going to completely quit working and now I've ordered a GFC 500 to replace it, hopefully within the next two months.

So if you know of a hangar at your airport and you still don't have a plane in a year or so.... let me know. Maybe we could work something out. :-)

[RoundTwo]

13 minutes ago, WaynePierce said:

Korbike, I'm currently in the Memphis area, own a 1985 J and desperately want to move to your part of the state now that I"m retired. Just waiting on my wife to do the same and we are East bound. I purchased my J three years ago, I was on a mail list that Jimmy keeps on perspective buyers and this J came up. Since taking possession I've updated the Avionics to an Avidyne IFD 550 and moved the existing GNS 430W to the right side and at the same time installed ADS-B for the mandate with a Lynx 9000 as well as updating the Audio Panel to an Avidyne unit. My next upgrade was last year when I had two GI 275's installed and got rid of the vacuum system. At the end of last year my Auto Pilot (KAP 150) decided it was going to completely quit working and now I've ordered a GFC 500 to replace it, hopefully within the next two months.

So if you know of a hangar at your airport and you still don't have a plane in a year or so.... let me know. Maybe we could work something out. :-)

Let me jump in with the assist. @korbike, see above.

[rbp]

2 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

Why yes I have.

I believe a dip is coming, likely this year, but it’s just a feeling is all. I do believe if you buy now, your buying close to the peak, not the dip. But the dip may not be a big ole pot hole who knows. I believe we are past the peak, but as always sales slow down well before prices come down. I think sales have slowed, but as I’m not in the market I don’t really know

I bought the Mooney a year and a half ago, after the buying spree had begun, but before it got into full swing. I knew I wasn’t buying the dip but I’m at an age where a couple of years is a significant portion of the time I have left, so I knew I was likely paying 10% or more than I should but what the heck, I’m not 30 anymore.

I bought the house two and a half years ago before I was really ready for a house (we were living on a sailboat at the time) but I knew prices were depressed because many weren’t buying and moving during Covid and I could get a 2% loan, so it was just too good a deal not to buy.

Low prices, free money

To me it was obvious that “free” money was going to kick start a buying spree and prices were going to get stupid, because what was a three thousand dollar house payment was now a two thousand dollar one, but that the real kicker was people could move into a bigger house for the same payment.

But people that bought a house in a bidding war or an airplane will be in for a surprise.

The converse of buy the dip is of course sell at the peak, or at least don’t buy the peak.

Obviously the trick is determining the peak and dip, you can’t not really, but you can usually tell when something is inflated or depressed, so you don’t hit the peak or dip, so what, just don’t buy at the peak.

You know when to not buy? It’s when everyone says you can’t lose and whatever is selling like hot cakes.

Like Tesla for instance, many thought it would continue to climb forever, that in fact Tesla was worth more than GM, Ford and Toyota combined.

Seriously?

You must be a hell of an investor. I’m surprised you’re not flying a citation or a Gulfstream 

[A64Pilot]

32 minutes ago, rbp said:

You must be a hell of an investor. I’m surprised you’re not flying a citation or a Gulfstream 

I don’t play with it to be honest, let’s watch and see what happens?

I have a friend, who is a Pro who manages mine, I would most likely not do well, I’m too risk adverse and have no idea about the tax issues etc.

I did lose roughly 25% of the value of my investments along with just about everybody else recently, so I guess in your opinion that insignificant little drop is irrelevant? That huge of a drop is not normal

It’s not a marker? That the 10% or so of inflation we have had since then is also irrelevant and will have no effect, and the fed raising rates to combat the little bump in inflation won’t either? The inflation rate is not normal

Too many negatives with few if any positives not to have a. effect, about the only positive is the unemployment rate, but it’s a red herring as a large reason for it is so many have left the employee pool during covid, haven’t returned.

I feel like I did in 2002 or so when trying to tell people those houses they were buying were overpriced to have them laugh and tell me you couldn’t lose in a house.

However I did miss on the timing, I thought sure things would go sour well before 08. Same with the dot com thing, and I’ve certainly never trusted Bitcoin

[carusoam]

You’re not wrong… you’re just too soon….   

Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket… do you have more than one friend?  

It is time in the market that counts, not timing the Market….

Diversification is the only free lunch….

On average… the S&P500 goes up about 10% per year… since about 1920… that includes plenty of down years and funny days…

If you like the S&P500 stat… and are OK with less diversification… the nasdaq 100 has been doing about 2X the S&P….

Bitcoin has too many risks for most people… but if your home currency isn’t as stable as the USD… it may make a ton of sense…

Triple leveraged ETFs can generate 3X what the nasdaq 100 is doing… with the downside of losing your whole investment… with a 33% slide…

 

watching interest rates change has been interesting…

at zero…. Everybody in the pool!  

The TINA program is alive… there is no alternative…

As rates rise, alternatives appear… don’t be the last in the pool…

Inflation is tamped by increasing interest rates…

Unemployment is increased by the same increased interest rate…

the Fed likes price stability, and stable employment…

Just when you think the fed is in control… you find their assumptions to be a bit off… 

House prices don’t always go up… neither do Mooney prices…

 

Is the bottom in?  Possibly…

Measured inflation has stopped going up….

Unemployment is slowly creeping lower…

 

What’s next…

Interest rates are still being increased slowly, and less each time….

If this doesn’t cause a recession… Party like it’s 1925 and the roaring 20s is still alive!!!

If it does cause a recession… Party like it’s 2008… button the financial hatches…

Siri can provide a list of economic events that is memorable… including black Monday, and the flash crash…

Even the harshest of them all don’t last very long… including the one that blew up lower Manhattan…

Keep an eye on Ukraine/Russia… wreckage and human crisis 24/7…

PP thoughts only, not an economist… or war correspondent…

 

Believe in capitalism…!  

Best regards,

-a-