Should Tesla buy Mooney?

[carusoam]

10 hours ago, ZuluZulu said:

So executive turnover close to Elon was not nearly half at 44% because you don't like the source?  Those people didn't leave?  You can disagree with the conclusions they drew, but are you questioning the data itself?

Zulu,

I’m making note of the resource that gave the data…

TS is on CNBC often, opining on the end of the world… as we know it…

 

You are familiar with sell side equity researchers right?

They aren’t in the business of unbiased data sharing…

 

Data could be spot on… or it doesn’t belong in the conversation at all…  you decide…

i found it interesting that TS and his firm were quoted as if they were independent opinions…

They are one and the same…  they are hater, not haters…  

It just means find more data from an independent source… to verify what you have…

 

I have no dog in this fight at all…

Best regards,

-a-

[ZuluZulu]

2 hours ago, carusoam said:

I have no dog in this fight at all…

Best regards,

-a-

Not sure about that since you’re involving yourself to argue points, but I still appreciate you Anthony.

I don’t agree with some of the things Elon says and does, and someone has to push back against the rose-colored view that everything he does is special and brilliant and benevolent. He’s a human like all of us, and a flawed one, also like all of us. It does society no favors to lionize and treat as infallible a person with that much wealth, power and influence. He has enormous power and I think his choices to spend all day trolling and sh*tposting on Twitter as a 50-year-old man with children is a tremendous waste of time he could be using to make more meaningful contributions to society. Treating him as a symbol instead of a human being creates space for others to be exploited and mistreated, as many of his employees have been. All of that is well documented. He should be treated with healthy scrutiny like any public figure. He does good things and should (and does) get credit for them. The electric car market as we know it does not exist without Tesla, and while he only took the company over later after it was founded by others, he deserves credit for those contributions and the shift toward more sustainable energy. SpaceX has also had some impressive, amazing successes, but also some disastrous failures. The rest of his ventures? Eh. More vaporware than not. We can give credit where it’s due, but let’s not ignore the bad or blind ourselves to reality. 

/rant

[carusoam]

Zulu,

Keep in mind…

I’m still learning how to write… I’ve been working on it daily for about a decade…

I stick to the mostly positive side of things… especially when discussing things I’m barely familiar with…

This allows me to write endlessly, without insulting other people… which can happen quickly when you accidentally tread in somebody’s favorite area…

In all of my glass is half full writing… somebody (named Chris) will be disappointed by me living on the sunny side of the street…

Around here, covering Aviation topics… guiding people from one resource to the next…

Every now and then somebody sends me a correction…

The harder and more complex the topic… the more challenging it is to get all the spelling correct and facts in order…

When it comes to ultra wealthy people and politics on MS… they appear to be one and the same…

It looks like they are both best left outside…

 

The only reason people haven’t complained about this long thread going on…

Electric powered vehicles are growing in leaps and bounds…

Enough that electric flight trainers can be part of every day life as much as a C150 is today…
 

Electric costs, like filling the electricity tank… is incredibly low compared to 100LL…

By discussing what Tesla has to offer… MSers have given their real first hand knowledge on their actual costs…

Sure I might have to listen how great Elon is… was… or will be…

I don’t take offense when I’m learning about their costs….

 

So…

Still no dog in this fight…

But, I do see where I can improve my writing… so thank you for that…

 

By the way… I like Mary Barra also… she runs GM… and had to clean up after all that bad ignition switch debacle… a real engineering systems failure… people that knew, but didn’t/couldn’t/or wouldn’t say anything… similar yet different to the Boeing debacle…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Barra

Every now and then I learn some brilliant ideas… that get shared by MSers in the middle of conversations about flying… sports, finance, hangar construction, bike buying, athletics, kids, parents, dogs, health issues and their solutions… and boat engines…

Just another day around MS…

Always trying to bridge conversations between dissimilar people around the globe in real time separated by hours and days since they logged in last or will log in again next…

Yes, Elon is different than the rest of CEOs… 

Somebody has to that job… 

I thought he was uninvestable… too much talk about 4:20, smoking weed in a televised radio interview, naming his line of cars S, 3, X, and Y,  named one of his boats Just Read the Instructions…

He runs a wildly profitable car business, a wildly capable space delivery business, a growing world dominating communications business… and a few others…

Including handing out communications devices in a war torn Ukraine…

+1 for avoiding the starry eyed amazement…

+1 Keep both eyes open…

+1 Ask questions…

+1 Don’t take everything at face value…

There is always going to be sell side economics… they’re not my favorites… they are welcomed to the party, because they minimize the scale of bubbles that can form without them… the lesser of two weevils… 

 

Either way…

I don’t think Elon would make a good owner for Mooney…

His track record is to buy things with a reason… To support his project of the day… and cast out the things he doesn’t need… or want to support…

He has bought up a few deep sea structures to be converted to launch systems and landing systems…  fast moving businesses directly focussed on the machinery need…  no altruistic saving jobs, companies, processes, materials, or anything else…

 

Compare any SpaceX launch, last week, this week, or next week or whenever….
To any Boeing Star Liner Rocket launch… last attempt, was Dec 2019…  It didn’t get off the ground on schedule… and nobody hit the kill switch until after it launched… somebody mis-programmed the ship’s clock… and it was obvious to everyone watching the Rocket not fire off on time…it never made it to orbit because of the error… go figure…

So… add that CEO to the list of people you don’t have to like either… Got any other Boeing CEO issues?  I can think of two more… in the same time frame…

Call me disappointed… if it ain’t Boeing, I ain’t going… one of my favorite phrases to use…. Until recently…

 

Where else can you find an awesome World Engineering company story… that inspires young people to start in STEM careers?

Bell, NASA, AT&T, GM, GE, JNJ, Pfizer, Alphabet….???

 

How is my sentence structure tonight?

Peace,

-a-

[A64Pilot]

On 4/7/2022 at 12:43 AM, ZuluZulu said:

So executive turnover close to Elon was not nearly half at 44% because you don't like the source?  Those people didn't leave?  You can disagree with the conclusions they drew, but are you questioning the data itself?

Nope, we concede it’s real, or at least I do.

So what, maybe he is a Jackass, what has that to do with anything? Is there some rule somewhere that says that brilliant people have to be nice?

Elon is probably an Aspie, and if you know any of them they are almost always not very good at social niceties, often they just feel that they don’t have time for such nonsense.

‘If you have Netflix, watch “Return to Space” it’s interesting and makes it obvious that the US would have essentially no space program if it weren’t for Space-X, a company that’s making money doing something the the Government lost Billions on over and over. I think the Government spent once amortized out 1 Billion dollars per each Astronaut we sent to space?

Edited April 11, 2022 by A64Pilot

[A64Pilot]

Oh, from the cost perspective, I discovered a page in our Tesla that displayed Energy used, I’ll attach it.

Since buying ours, we have put 7,159 miles on it and have used 1,571 KWH doing so. At 14c per KWH that means it cost us $220 to “fuel” the car for 7159 miles

You can of course run the numbers for your ICE vehicle

Our Miata would have cost 7159 div by 25 MPG = 286.36 gallons of gas x $4 a gallon = $1145.44 or 5.2 times as much as the Tesla model 3.

Those numbers are real. Hard as they are to believe

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by A64Pilot

[mike_elliott]

1 hour ago, A64Pilot said:

Nope, we concede it’s real, or at least I do.

as do I. Elons' companies are a major target for talent poaching for good reason and as such, a high turnover happens. Yea, he is probably tough to work for as he expects everyone to contribute and  responsible for their own actions, work extremely hard at fulfilling the mission of bettering humanity. And I am sure a lot of execs got in thinking it would be an easier ride so they left. I highly doubt he spends all day $hit posting and trolling on twitter based on his  accomplishments but who knows, maybe he accomplishes all this while he sleeps

[ZuluZulu]

On 4/11/2022 at 6:03 AM, mike_elliott said:

as do I. Elons' companies are a major target for talent poaching for good reason and as such, a high turnover happens. Yea, he is probably tough to work for as he expects everyone to contribute and  responsible for their own actions, work extremely hard at fulfilling the mission of bettering humanity. And I am sure a lot of execs got in thinking it would be an easier ride so they left. I highly doubt he spends all day $hit posting and trolling on twitter based on his  accomplishments but who knows, maybe he accomplishes all this while he sleeps

Right, record multi-million-dollar judgments, a lengthy history of employee complaints, and high turnover that no other company has to deal with are because he merely wants people to “contribute” and “be responsible” and “work extremely hard at fulfilling the mission of bettering humanity” (lol) and not that he could possibly be flawed in some way. It’s hundreds if not thousands of people all independently making the wrong decisions and not acting in their own self-interests in the exact same way over the course of a decade, never an indication that something could possibly be Elon’s fault. I’m dizzy from all the spin.  

I’ve already made all the useful points I can make in this thread (if I ever made one) so I’ll exit with Elon’s latest vaporware play: buying Twitter with an all-cash offer he doesn’t actually have the liquidity to close (and yet another SEC violation just for fun, because rules don’t apply to heroes like him). All just part of saving the world, I’m sure, and definitely not a pump-and-dump to make himself richer or a scheme to make himself more powerful!

[aviatoreb]

Looks like Elon decided to buy twitter for $43B instead of Mooney - which I bet you coulda gotten for less than half that…

[carusoam]

Tesla quarterly report on Wednesday…

Could get interesting… 
 

-a-

[MooneyMitch]

2 hours ago, ZuluZulu said:

Right, record multi-million-dollar judgments

It was so cold in New York City last week, the lawyers had their hands in their own pockets ...... just adding a little side tracking humor (well, maybe not to all) to this thread 

All seriousness aside, at least we won’t have any more of those horrible gasoline horseless carriages here on the left coast much longer ! 

[Hank]

1 hour ago, MooneyMitch said:

All seriousness aside, at least we won’t have any more of those horrible gasoline horseless carriages here on the left coast much longer ! 

Do you think by then that there will be electric airplanes for you to fly that will go more than 150 nm in a charge? And take less than 45 minutes to charge up enough to return to the starting point? Because gas for your Mooney won't be available much longer than gas for your car.

[MooneyMitch]

Next our governator will ban the sale of new gasoline powered Mooneys here...... oh, wait, there aren’t anymore of those......

8 minutes ago, Hank said:

Because gas for your Mooney won't be available much longer than gas for your car.

..... and there’s that too!

I do love my weather though! 

[A64Pilot]

How does electric cars have anything to do with aircraft? It’s not the same fuel, even the delivery system is completely separate.

Secondly anyone who thinks ICE cars will soon be gone is living in fantasy land, slow phase out over a couple of decades maybe, if that’s your definition of soon then I guess so. Plus electric vehicles are not for everyone, I doubt traveling in Montana is very viable for example, but so few live there they are a tiny fraction of the population.

What will drive the adoption of electric vehicles is the over $100 to fill up the average SUV compared to the $7 fill up of our Tesla, probably twice that for an electric SUV, but still nothing even close to gas cost. Once the Average consumer figures this out electric cars will take off.

They are THE vehicle for a CB. She drives about 80 miles a day on $2 of electricity.

[mike_elliott]

The conundrum Twitter find themselves in now is interesting. Larry Fink telling Blackrock pension fund holders he just voted to not make them a substantial profit might be a bit uncomfortable for their legal team. Elon dumping his twtr stock sends twtr sub $20 and making the board's legal team a bit uncomfortable. Elon taking out a 30B loan to buy will make a few banks uncomfortable. Current admin losing its bullhorn making the mouthpieces uncomfortable. Prospect of not being able to track Elon's jet making the kid uncomfortable. Maybe Ill buy a few shares and buy a put for after 420 to hedge it all. Leftist complaining about a billionaire owning a media platform is quite humorous

popping the corn and watching this 3D chess game

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

On 4/11/2022 at 6:45 AM, A64Pilot said:

Oh, from the cost perspective, I discovered a page in our Tesla that displayed Energy used, I’ll attach it.

Since buying ours, we have put 7,159 miles on it and have used 1,571 KWH doing so. At 14c per KWH that means it cost us $220 to “fuel” the car for 7159 miles

You can of course run the numbers for your ICE vehicle

Our Miata would have cost 7159 div by 25 MPG = 286.36 gallons of gas x $4 a gallon = $1145.44 or 5.2 times as much as the Tesla model 3.

Those numbers are real. Hard as they are to believe

 

What was the purchase price of each?  That will have a large influence on the ownership costs.

[Hank]

27 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

How does electric cars have anything to do with aircraft? It’s not the same fuel, even the delivery system is completely separate.

Secondly anyone who thinks ICE cars will soon be gone is living in fantasy land, slow phase out over a couple of decades maybe, if that’s your definition of soon then I guess so. Plus electric vehicles are not for everyone, I doubt traveling in Montana is very viable for example, but so few live there they are a tiny fraction of the population.

What will drive the adoption of electric vehicles is the over $100 to fill up the average SUV compared to the $7 fill up of our Tesla, probably twice that for an electric SUV, but still nothing even close to gas cost. Once the Average consumer figures this out electric cars will take off.

They are THE vehicle for a CB. She drives about 80 miles a day on $2 of electricity.

All we need is a zillion magical batteries that don't require mining rare metals, a hugely upgraded power grid to bring lots more electricity to every home and business in the country, and a way to generate all of the electricity that the cars will require. Coal, oil and natural gas are falling out if favor forn power plants; too many people are afraid of nuclear power; activists want dams removed: wind and solar can't keep up with current needs, much less adding in a couple hundred million electric vehicles.

So we need magical electricity, distributed through a magical power grid, to charge the magical batteries that will power a nation of electric vehicles. Maybe there will be enough magical batteries to power a few airplanes?

[mike_elliott]

10 minutes ago, Hank said:

So we need magical electricity, distributed through a magical power grid, to charge the magical batteries

Hank, in 2019 Tesla's Australian Hornsdale distributed power system saved over 54 million for the Australian customers and paid for itself in one year [1]. As an engineer, I know you get this, and understand you might not like it, but the data does speak for itself.  One of these days, wall street will conclude Teslas main focus isnt that of a car manufacture after all, but in fact is a disrupter of energy as well. Yea, there is all kinds of legislation popping up in various states to prevent the consumer from being in charge of their own charges, but that is what lobbyist do..make laws that cost somebody to make someone else more $

[1] https://guidehouseinsights.com/news-and-views/teslas-autobidder-platform-is-one-example-of-a-new-energy-future

[A64Pilot]

2 hours ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

What was the purchase price of each?  That will have a large influence on the ownership costs.

Wife decided she wanted to go back to work, we had two cars an 05 CTS-V and an 05 Mazdaspeed Miata, neither was really best choice for an 80 mile a day work car. The Miata isn’t the safest vehicle in an accident, and the V series Cadillac isn’t an economy car, it’s operating costs are quite high, but both are fun to drive

My original plan as of a couple of years ago was to buy a used Leaf as you could get them dirt cheap as in less than 10K for one a couple of years old, they didn’t hold value at all, I don’t know if it was due to subsidies driving the cost of new cars down or $2 dollar a gallon gas, but they were dirt cheap and many were available, but I figured it would be a cheap way to try electric.

Then came the sudden inability to manufacture cars and used cars prices went crazy, even the lowly Leafs were priced beyond their worth in my opinion, and the Wife’s decision to drive so much every day had me worried about her safety, so the Miata was a non starter and the leaf didn’t do so well either, but the Tesla model 3 is the safest vehicle it’s size in production, so it moved up the list.

But to answer your question we paid about 42K for it, which is slightly lower than the average US new car was selling for, and believe it or not, but we could make about 10K right now if we sold it, check the prices of used 2021 Model 3’s yourself. There is about a six month backlog, and some just won’t wait and are willing to pay more than list price. In fact the average vehicle sold now goes for more than list, but as there are no Tesla dealers the price is fixed. 

In truth the Model 3 is such a well integrated car with technology beyond most, being electric is a bonus, it’s not the main reason to buy, look up its crashworthiness for example.

Most all other cars the systems aren’t integrated at all, they are a kludge, separate items all with their own switches and buttons the Tesla it’s all controlled via the touch screen

So, bottom line it’s cost is the same as the average car bought in the US now, it’s the safest vehicle of its size made and its operating expenses are less than 20% of the average vehicle, it also has about the highest buyer satisfaction and so far a very high reliability rating.

If there is a concern in my opinion it’s repair and parts, you cant go to NAPA and buy a Tesla motor or heat pump yet, your pretty much tied to Tesla, but it has a long warranty and so far is very reliable.

Edited April 15, 2022 by A64Pilot

[A64Pilot]

Musk got into trouble for this article as autos are not tested against all others, the are grouped by size, but Tesla used the algorithms that are published and came to this conclusion.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa

A less biased article

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-model-3-received-5-star-crash-test-rating-2019-10

Edited April 15, 2022 by A64Pilot

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

On 4/11/2022 at 6:45 AM, A64Pilot said:

Oh, from the cost perspective, I discovered a page in our Tesla that displayed Energy used, I’ll attach it.

Since buying ours, we have put 7,159 miles on it and have used 1,571 KWH doing so. At 14c per KWH that means it cost us $220 to “fuel” the car for 7159 miles

You can of course run the numbers for your ICE vehicle

Our Miata would have cost 7159 div by 25 MPG = 286.36 gallons of gas x $4 a gallon = $1145.44 or 5.2 times as much as the Tesla model 3.

Those numbers are real. Hard as they are to believe

 

If you use 6% as the average stock market return, the difference between your fuel costs would mean that the Tesla should cost no more than $15,425 more than the Miata.  I am guessing a new Tesla is more likely $25,000 more than the new Miata.

Bottom line:  You do not buy a Tesla to save money.

[A64Pilot]

16 minutes ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

If you use 6% as the average stock market return, the difference between your fuel costs would mean that the Tesla should cost no more than $15,425 more than the Miata.  I am guessing a new Tesla is more likely $25,000 more than the new Miata.

Bottom line:  You do not buy a Tesla to save money.

Your numbers are incorrect, your not taking into account number of miles driven, nor the depreciation. Model 3 depreciates 10% over a three year period 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2021/01/24/first-electric-car-consider-these-four-big-upsides-for-a-tesla-in-2021-not-price/?sh=523b35063d7d

Our Prius was a “free” car, by free when you computed the fuel used compared to the average US SUV the difference was more than the purchase price of the Prius. If you drive a lot, the cost per mile gets real significant.

If we drive the Tesla the same number of miles it will be an even more difference as the Tesla costs half what the Prius did to drive , and fuel is way higher now.

 You Do buy a Tesla and save money, if you compare it to pretty much any new ICE car, now if you drive very little the cheapest thing is to buy an old beater.

‘Compared to a BWW 3 series the Tesla cost of ownership is far less and I think they are comparable cars

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by A64Pilot

[carusoam]

57 minutes ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

If you use 6% as the average stock market return, the difference between your fuel costs would mean that the Tesla should cost no more than $15,425 more than the Miata.  I am guessing a new Tesla is more likely $25,000 more than the new Miata.

Bottom line:  You do not buy a Tesla to save money.

What happens to your calculations if you use 10.1% for the average stock market return?

The S&P500 has averaged just slightly over 10% per year since prior to the Great Depression… and includes the Great Recession…. And will probably do the same looking forwards past the Great Resignation….

What happens when…

There is competition… the Teslas are nice and deliver on their promises…

Other car companies are coming on strong…

+1 for magic batteries…

+1 for charging over night…

+1 for magic 100LL and it’s more magical replacement…

Best regards,

-a-

[A64Pilot]

I’m a BEM “bugger eating moron” so excuse me.

But what does the stock market have to do with it? I hope not much, because I’m pessimistic about it now. 

You have to have a car, the money is spent whether Tesla or Audi A4 or BMW 3 series, all in my opinion comparable cars. I’ve been using the miata as we have one, but it’s not really a comparable car.

So the money to buy the car is spent whichever car, so we are now into the operating and maintenance costs, and the Tesla seems to be about 20% of the costs of any of those cars I mentioned or less.

Will It hold up? They have been out for I think it’s 12 years and so far the answer is yes, but the model 3 is so far advanced from the originals that it’s likely that it will do much better.

Edited April 15, 2022 by A64Pilot

[carusoam]

Don’t look now….

But, there is always going to be a stack of dough….

And what that stack does is going to be important…

Looks like somebody wanted to know about what the opportunity lost cost is if his stack was deployed to pay for a more or less expensive car…. Compared to leaving the excess dough riding in the market…

 

The reason you don’t want to look now…

If you already have your stack tied up in your expensive plane…. Your stack isn’t earning the 10% ROI that it could be….

At 10% per year… that stack would double every seven years or so… (rule of 72)

Keep in mind… Having a big stack, and no plane… wouldn’t be very fun….

You do have to live your life, and not count all of the cents saved by driving your Tesla….

For fun… add inflation to your calculations…  

Oddities in the used car market…  there are shortages in the new car market due to chip supply issues…. People have been buying up the nicer used cars as an alternative…

Things are changing rapidly… chip production is adjusting to the new normal… new cars are being produced at better outputs… the used car dealers are showing the changes in real time…

And the inflation numbers are just nuts… as they get combatted with the rising interest rates… which is just nuts X2…  

NJ likes their nuclear power plants….  Would an electric hummer make me a green driver?

PP thoughts only, not a finance guru…

Best regards,

-a-

[A64Pilot]

But if you “have” to buy a car anyway, may as well buy one that performs well, is fun to drive, is very safe, and inexpensive to operate.

I know, and have always known that if you don’t drive much a Klunker is your best buy, and used to be the big ole luxury cars were the best, they were well made, often not all that much mileage, owned often by older people that were gentle on them and as you don’t drive much, fuel burn isn’t a significant expense.

Germans especially when they came to learn to fly at Ft Rucker would often buy the biggest Cadillac available, you know the one with the over 500 cu in engine, driving that big old boat around was quite the experience for them I guess.

Fast forward a few years and I’m in Germany and the way Germans taxed their cars by fuel consumption made an older huge Mercedes essentially worthless as it came with a huge tax every year and nobody wanted to pay the tax for an old car so they couldn’t be given away just scrapped, which I think was the point of the tax. I’m talking the Big Mercedes, the one you can picture the Arab crossing the desert in, so sometimes US soldiers would buy it, because we were tax exempt, and we got fuel ration cards that made the fuel cost about the same as in the US, so you got a big Mercedes for less than a VW Polo.

 I had one and before I left my German neighbor asked what I did with it, I said I sold it. He said you sold it? Amazed that someone would buy the thing. It was actually a very good car, didn’t put a nickel in it that I remember.