Beech Baron down with 2 fatalities - N585CK

[hubcap]

Beech Baron went down last night near KSUS. Apparently 2 fatalities. Details are still coming out.

https://www.emissourian.com/local_news/two-people-presumed-dead-following-plane-crash-near-defiance/article_0fb0a8b4-7160-11ec-94ba-977b4e1376ce.html

I have flown a lot in that area. It is not a good place to have an engine failure.

Apparently after takeoff the pilot declared an emergency and was attempting to return to the airport. Looks like they were at ~8,000 ft when they declared and quickly were lost on radar. The debris field was estimated to be 300yds in diameter so they were travelling at a high rate of speed on impact.

Kathryn's Report (kathrynsreport.com)

Edited January 9, 2022 by hubcap

[toto]

Here's the direct link to the post on Kathryn's Report:

http://www.kathrynsreport.com/2022/01/beechcraft-58-baron-n585ck-fatal.html

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

I got a bunch of emails from my students about this accident. It was largely driven by Dan Gryder's video.  He has no doubt icing caused this accident. I don't know this guy and he evidently has a huge following.  But, this guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about…please don’t follow him. He plays the ATIS at the time of departure which says the temperature is +7°C and then he says immediately after that, “…taking off into freezing drizzle.” Huh? First, you can’t have freezing drizzle at the surface with that warm of a temperature and second, there’s nothing in that ATIS that says anything about freezing drizzle or even precipitation. He then goes onto say that it gets colder as you go up. Yes, eventually it does get colder, but not at the altitudes the pilot was flying…it was actually getting warmer. Evidently this guy has never heard about temperature inversions. Ugh! That’s why so many pilots get really screwed up when it comes to making weather decisions since they listen to guys like this. This video has gotten almost 50,000 views already…just insane. 

If you want an accurate analysis, please visit my blog and read this post.  

[Marauder]

You should ask old Dan about his own crash. Bet you he would say it was caused by a microburst.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[carusoam]

On 1/9/2022 at 6:49 PM, toto said:

Here's the direct link to the post on Kathryn's Report:

http://www.kathrynsreport.com/2022/01/beechcraft-58-baron-n585ck-fatal.html

The link says something about invitation only?

-a-

[toto]

1 hour ago, carusoam said:

The link says something about invitation only?

-a-

Looks like KR is having some issues again…

I’m sure it will be back to normal soon. 

[ZuluZulu]

2 hours ago, Scott Dennstaedt, PhD said:

I got a bunch of emails from my students about this accident. It was largely driven by Dan Gryder's video.  He has no doubt icing caused this accident. I don't know this guy and he evidently has a huge following.  But, this guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about…please don’t follow him. He plays the ATIS at the time of departure which says the temperature is +7°C and then he says immediately after that, “…taking off into freezing drizzle.” Huh? First, you can’t have freezing drizzle at the surface with that warm of a temperature and second, there’s nothing in that ATIS that says anything about freezing drizzle or even precipitation. He then goes onto say that it gets colder as you go up. Yes, eventually it does get colder, but not at the altitudes the pilot was flying…it was actually getting warmer. Evidently this guy has never heard about temperature inversions. Ugh! That’s why so many pilots get really screwed up when it comes to making weather decisions since they listen to guys like this. This video has gotten almost 50,000 views already…just insane. 

If you want an accurate analysis, please visit my blog and read this post.  

And yet some people insist on spamming his videos on every single aviation forum I visit.  News of a crash?  "WELL, DAN GRYDER SAYS...."  Get off my lawn!

[Greg Ellis]

12 hours ago, Scott Dennstaedt, PhD said:

I got a bunch of emails from my students about this accident. It was largely driven by Dan Gryder's video.  He has no doubt icing caused this accident. I don't know this guy and he evidently has a huge following.  But, this guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about…please don’t follow him. He plays the ATIS at the time of departure which says the temperature is +7°C and then he says immediately after that, “…taking off into freezing drizzle.” Huh? First, you can’t have freezing drizzle at the surface with that warm of a temperature and second, there’s nothing in that ATIS that says anything about freezing drizzle or even precipitation. He then goes onto say that it gets colder as you go up. Yes, eventually it does get colder, but not at the altitudes the pilot was flying…it was actually getting warmer. Evidently this guy has never heard about temperature inversions. Ugh! That’s why so many pilots get really screwed up when it comes to making weather decisions since they listen to guys like this. This video has gotten almost 50,000 views already…just insane. 

If you want an accurate analysis, please visit my blog and read this post.  

I guess I am learning from you Scott.  I did see Dan Gryder's video on this and the first thing I thought of was the temp on the ground being above freezing.  I then thought about the temperature inversion but nowhere could I locate a historical skew-t for the time of the accident.  I was slightly beyond the time that rucsoundings says you can access past skew-t's.  Is there another website to look at historical skew T diagrams?

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

2 hours ago, Greg Ellis said:

I guess I am learning from you Scott.  I did see Dan Gryder's video on this and the first thing I thought of was the temp on the ground being above freezing.  I then thought about the temperature inversion but nowhere could I locate a historical skew-t for the time of the accident.  I was slightly beyond the time that rucsoundings says you can access past skew-t's.  Is there another website to look at historical skew T diagrams?

Hi Greg,

There seems to have been a lot of people (based on the comments he received) that didn't go as far as you did with this...that is, believe there could be a temperature inversion. Just quite a shame that so many of his followers are being misled.  

No, I don't have any good sites to use that provides a truly historical model-based Skew-T.  NASA did have one, but it seemed to stop working many years ago.  At some point I will likely provide one on my site, but that's several years off (hopefully before I retire in about 7 years).  

[steingar]

While I have no doubt that you are correct @Scott Dennstaedt, PhD, I would never take off into the clouds with temps that cold.  Never ever.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

1 minute ago, steingar said:

While I have no doubt that you are correct @Scott Dennstaedt, PhD, I would never take off into the clouds with temps that cold.  Never ever.

So you don't fly in IMC when the temps are +11°C (or 52°F)?  That's really interesting.  I've been flying for 25+ years and never had any issues at those warmer temperatures in the clouds.  I think you are the first to make that comment.  I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that.   

[steingar]

Just now, Scott Dennstaedt, PhD said:

So you don't fly in IMC when the temps are +11°C (or 52°F)?  That's really interesting.  I've been flying for 25+ years and never had any issues at those warmer temperatures in the clouds.  I think you are the first to make that comment.  I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that.   

No way, no how.  Moreover, the number I saw was +7 degrees C, which is 44 degrees F.  Lapse rate is 2 degrees per thousand feet if I'm not mistaken, so at 3 thousand feet you're right at freezing.  I won't claim to be an IR pilot, I'm not.  But I do think about these issues, and I'd not take off into the clouds at anything that close to freezing in a non FIKI aircraft.  Where I live we get a LOT of ice.  Limits the usefulness of the IR to some degree.

 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

3 minutes ago, steingar said:

No way, no how.  Moreover, the number I saw was +7 degrees C, which is 44 degrees F.  Lapse rate is 2 degrees per thousand feet if I'm not mistaken, so at 3 thousand feet you're right at freezing.  

 

Ah, I see.  You are using the standard lapse rate instead of using the actual temps aloft (or forecast temps aloft). Not sure I understand why you'd do that.  But what happens if the environmental lapse rate is greater than the standard?  Then you've calculated the freezing level to be much higher than it actually is.  No thanks.  But, you do you.  I'd rather use the actual/forecast temps aloft and make a much more informed decision.  In this accident, the actual lapse rate was not 2°C/1000 feet, it was negative as I describe in this post. That put the freezing level above 9,000 feet MSL (likely near 11,000 feet).  I teach all of my students, never, ever use the standard lapse rate for any meteorological decisions.  The only time it's acceptable to use is to calculate the departure from standard for those POH/AFM performance tables.  

[Nippernaper]

I got a bunch of emails from my students about this accident. It was largely driven by

video.  He has no doubt icing caused this accident. I don't know this guy and he evidently has a huge following.  But, this guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about…please don’t follow him. He plays the ATIS at the time of departure which says the temperature is +7°C and then he says immediately after that, “…taking off into freezing drizzle.” Huh? First, you can’t have freezing drizzle at the surface with that warm of a temperature and second, there’s nothing in that ATIS that says anything about freezing drizzle or even precipitation. He then goes onto say that it gets colder as you go up. Yes, eventually it does get colder, but not at the altitudes the pilot was flying…it was actually getting warmer. Evidently this guy has never heard about temperature inversions. Ugh! That’s why so many pilots get really screwed up when it comes to making weather decisions since they listen to guys like this. This video has gotten almost 50,000 views already…just insane. 
If you want an accurate analysis, please visit my blog and read this post.  

He certainly does seem to like to hear himself talk, and doesn't let facts get in the way of a good story, especially when he is the hero.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[_Jim]

I would suggest that anybody wishing to fully research this should look at the 00:00UTC ILX SKEW-T diagram.

Radiosondes are normally released twice daily, at 0000 and 1200 UTC.

The baro pressure at 8k feet is roughly 750 mbar on this skew-t diagram:

 

[Sixstring2k]

6 hours ago, _Jim said:

I would suggest that anybody wishing to fully research this should look at the 00:00UTC ILX SKEW-T diagram.

Radiosondes are normally released twice daily, at 0000 and 1200 UTC.

The baro pressure at 8k feet is roughly 750 mbar on this skew-t diagram:

 

What does the green and red line converting mean?

[_Jim]

7 minutes ago, Sixstring2k said:

What does the green and red line converting mean?

Let me excerpt just the part of interest - the altitude and temperature plots. I don't know how this will turn out, but I'll give it a try-

 

[_Jim]

20 minutes ago, Sixstring2k said:

What does the green and red line converting mean?

The plot above shows the temperature and dewpoint being equal up past 8,000 feet at the site where the radiosonde balloon was launched ... the dew point temperature is a lot lower once the 700 mbar altitude is reached.

At 8,000 ft the temp and dewpoint are about 2.5 deg C., cold enough that icing due to the Bernoulli effect (low pressure over the wing airfoil lowering the temperature) could and likely would form ice. 

Edit: The green and red lines converging means a nearly or evolving saturated atmosphere, RH going to near/at 100%, due to mist, fog.

Edited January 13, 2022 by _Jim
Clarify answer.

[Ragsf15e]

50 minutes ago, _Jim said:

The plot above shows the temperature and dewpoint being equal up past 8,000 feet at the site where the radiosonde balloon was launched ... the dew point temperature is a lot lower once the 700 mbar altitude is reached.

At 8,000 ft the temp and dewpoint are about 2.5 deg C., cold enough that icing due to the Bernoulli effect (low pressure over the wing airfoil lowering the temperature) could and likely would form ice. 

Did you guys read @Scott Dennstaedt, PhD explanation?  That balloon was further north in slightly colder air.  The inversion near the crash site had the 8,000’ temp even warmer.

Additionally, not sure your experience, but mine has been very limited ice forming above 0c.  Yes, possible, but typically confined to the pitot tube and other specific areas.  Not impossible, but I’ve personally never seen anything that could bring down an airplane above 0c.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

5 minutes ago, Ragsf15e said:

Did you guys read @Scott Dennstaedt, PhD explanation?  That balloon was further north in slightly colder air.  The inversion near the crash site had the 8,000’ temp even warmer.

That's correct, thanks for chiming in - the RAOB was further to the northwest and the freezing level at that point was still 9,000 feet. If you look at the 00Z analysis from the NAM model just outside of SUS, the freezing level near the accident site was near 12,000 feet.  As I mentioned in my blog post, the warm front was moving north, so the atmosphere was getting warmer with time. There's no chance of icing with this temperature profile.  

 

[_Jim]

7 minutes ago, Ragsf15e said:

Did you guys read @Scott Dennstaedt, PhD explanation?  That balloon was further north in slightly colder air.  The inversion near the crash site had the 8,000’ temp even warmer.

Additionally, not sure your experience, but mine has been very limited ice forming above 0c.  Yes, possible, but typically confined to the pitot tube and other specific areas.  Not impossible, but I’ve personally never seen anything that could bring down an airplane above 0c.

I found this article instructive as to icing:, https://itd.idaho.gov/wp-content/Aero/Publications/RF/2014/RF_Winter_2014.pdf

Of note was the author's mention of this (brief excerpt follows): "Another common cause for icing, in temperatures above freezing, is Bernoulli’s Principle. Remember, airplanes fly because of the drop in air pressure that occurs when air accelerates over the top of the wing, creating high pressure underneath the wing. The drop in air pressure over the top of the wing is accompanied by a drop in temperature. If the drop in temperature is enough, the precipitation that impacts the leading edge of the wing may flow aft and later freeze.

For these reasons, icing conditions are defined as OAT of less than +5°C and visible moisture. Visible moisture is clouds, fog, rain, snow or any other precipitation. These conditions are conducive to structural ice on aircraft..  ..."

 

The author also cites a NASA video titled "NASA Tailplane Icing Video Glenn Research Center" in which they show wind tunnel testing with an airfoil undergoing icing. A web search will point out this video's URL on YT.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Didn't read the article, but there's never been any aircraft accident related to this. If you can point out one, I'd love to see it.  This isn't one of them.  There's also kinetic heating which can cause an increase in temperature on the leading edge where icing is most likely to accrete.  This is called total air temperature.  We see this clearly when you look at how ice accretions form on the leading edge.  I had a long conversation many years ago with one of the lead test pilots out of the NASA Glenn research center in Cleveland and he's never heard of any issues in this area.  This aircraft was also warm-soaked at temperatures nearly 11°C in the climb, so the thermal momentum would keep the wings rather clean and it's likely icing would not accrete on the airframe until the static air temps were colder than -3°C.  

[jaylw314]

1 hour ago, _Jim said:

I found this article instructive as to icing:, https://itd.idaho.gov/wp-content/Aero/Publications/RF/2014/RF_Winter_2014.pdf

Of note was the author's mention of this (brief excerpt follows): "Another common cause for icing, in temperatures above freezing, is Bernoulli’s Principle. Remember, airplanes fly because of the drop in air pressure that occurs when air accelerates over the top of the wing, creating high pressure underneath the wing. The drop in air pressure over the top of the wing is accompanied by a drop in temperature. If the drop in temperature is enough, the precipitation that impacts the leading edge of the wing may flow aft and later freeze.

I'd throw some shade at that conclusion.  Yes, a drop in STATIC pressure would decrease the temperature, but here we're talking about bits of air that are compressed, expanded, then compressed again within the span of a few tenths of a second.    Any water is not going to freeze in that period of time, there's just not enough time for any drops to lose that much heat.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

41 minutes ago, jaylw314 said:

I'd throw some shade at that conclusion.  Yes, a drop in STATIC pressure would decrease the temperature, but here we're talking about bits of air that are compressed, expanded, then compressed again within the span of a few tenths of a second.    Any water is not going to freeze in that period of time, there's just not enough time for any drops to lose that much heat.

Yes, the kinetic heating primarily due to adiabatic compression has a much greater effect on the boundary layer temperature of the air just above the leading edge surface.  That's why you see the total air temperature to be several degrees warmer than the static air temperature. 

He says, 

"Myth-Aircraft structural icing only occurs in freezing temperatures.

Fact-Aircraft structural icing can occur in outside air temperatures (OAT) up to +5°C, most commonly occurring in temperatures between +2°C and -20°C. A common cause for this is that the aircraft is descending from subfreezing temperatures into warmer air. The airframe may remain colder than freezing for a period of time after exiting the colder temperatures."

This is so misleading.  Yes, a cold-soaked aircraft can accrete some ice in the situation he describes.  But the thermal momentum of the static air temperature of > 0°C on a descent coupled with the kinetic heating makes this a six-sigma event that has never caused any aircraft accidents or incidents. He's pulling at straws here.  It's like you need all the planets to align for this to occur, so it's something we should worry about.  The Current and Forecast Icing Products do not consider icing at static air temperatures above freezing. 

[carusoam]

great discussion…

and Welcome aboard _Jim.

Best regards,

-a-