100UL dead on arrival

[chriscalandro]

You’re telling me that you want me to use a fuel that cost considerably more than current offerings, AND I need to spend several thousand on an STC to be able to use it?

 

naimnotgonnadothat 

 

one or the other might have been doable, but not both. If the fuel meets or exceeds all requirements of LL why is an STC required?  Especially if it becomes mandated. 
 

swing and a miss. 

[carusoam]

Chris,

One day…

You are going to surprise us…

It may be way off in the future…

But, it will happen…

Best regards,

-a-

[tigers2007]

Yeah but we may not have a choice. Especially under this administration. For some reason, GA owners are still perceived as one of the greatest threats increasing global warming and to the environment. Our only hope is continuing to support the aircraft owner lobbying groups; even if they don’t spend every dime as you want them to. I don’t care for my current labor union. They’re quite weak (I miss NTEU) yet I have to support them as they work directly in my best interest.

[PeteMc]

Not sure that I agree that "GA owners"are seen as any great threat.  Lead in any form has been on the list for YEARS (lead pipes/water, paint, auto gas, any number of other substances).  And with good reason.  You (we) hear about it all the time because we read the articles related to GA.  

But there is no question that lead will be gone from our fuel in the not so distant future.   I'm going to assume it will be G100LL formula that people start producing.  But maybe someone else will come out of the woodwork in the next few years with even a better option. 

 

[GeeBee]

My guess is you are not going to spend "several thousand" for an STC.

Remember the Gillette model.

 

[chriscalandro]

2 hours ago, GeeBee said:

My guess is you are not going to spend "several thousand" for an STC.

Remember the Gillette model.

 

They said the pricing for the STC would be comparable to the Mogas STC, which is roughly 3K

its an alternative, not a replacement. And as an alternative it has to attractiveness whatsoever. 

[tigers2007]

Any estimate to how much it would cost to finance a MOGAS or 100UL STC for all piston birds out there? The Fed grants billions for bizarre projects; $929M grant just restored specifically for the (failing) $100B California high-speed rail project. Again, if we had a smart lobbying group we could get through this much easier.
Blue Origin, Jeff Bezo’s space firm might be getting $10B soon to put junk on the moon.
“Blue Origin spent $625,000 lobbying the Senate in the first three months of 2021, according to lobbying disclosure records. Among that spending was $50,000 to a team of lobbyists at a firm called Clark Hill that would specifically focus on the moon landing program.”
We the aircraft owners need better and more effective lobbying.

[EricJ]

30 minutes ago, tigers2007 said:

Any estimate to how much it would cost to finance a MOGAS or 100UL STC for all piston birds out there? The Fed grants billions for bizarre projects; $929M grant just restored specifically for the (failing) $100B California high-speed rail project. Again, if we had a smart lobbying group we could get through this much easier.
Blue Origin, Jeff Bezo’s space firm might be getting $10B soon to put junk on the moon.
“Blue Origin spent $625,000 lobbying the Senate in the first three months of 2021, according to lobbying disclosure records. Among that spending was $50,000 to a team of lobbyists at a firm called Clark Hill that would specifically focus on the moon landing program.”
We the aircraft owners need better and more effective lobbying.

AOPA is the main lobbying organization for GA pilots.   Talk to them.

[Ragsf15e]

Even If it’s a onetime STC purchase of $3k (which I doubt), I’ll pay for it and keep my airplane flying happily.  If G100UL costs $1 more per gallon and the STC, I think GA did ok.  Maybe it could have been a little better, but I’m certain it could have been much worse.

[gacoon]

2 hours ago, tigers2007 said:

Any estimate to how much it would cost to finance a MOGAS or 100UL STC for all piston birds out there? The Fed grants billions for bizarre projects; $929M grant just restored specifically for the (failing) $100B California high-speed rail project. Again, if we had a smart lobbying group we could get through this much easier.
Blue Origin, Jeff Bezo’s space firm might be getting $10B soon to put junk on the moon.
“Blue Origin spent $625,000 lobbying the Senate in the first three months of 2021, according to lobbying disclosure records. Among that spending was $50,000 to a team of lobbyists at a firm called Clark Hill that would specifically focus on the moon landing program.”
We the aircraft owners need better and more effective lobbying.

I like that idea 

[N201MKTurbo]

Don’t be surprised if the current government declares a 100LL drop dead date a few years in the future. If they do, we will buy G100UL or scrap our planes. They have always said the only reason that 100LL still exists is because there is no substitute. Well, now there is a government approved substitute. The government doesn’t care what it costs. Aviation is only for the privileged class and isn’t green. 

Edited August 2, 2021 by N201MKTurbo

[Unit74]

I applaud Gami for getting a product approved. But if it’s gonna be rammed down our throats, and the only fuel available via banning/removing 100LL, I simply will not buy an STC. If it is truly a 1:1 replacement, the profit is in the product sales and absolutely should not require a paperwork shuffle for $$$$$. I believe that’s a class action lawsuit in the making. You cannot remove a product then force another product from a sole source without repercussions. That’s like DOT banning all other cars and licensing Ford to be the only car producer, then making you pay a $$$$ application fee to buy the only car on the market. 
 

In short, F you, I won’t do it. I’ll pump it because I have to, or make a fake placard and fake it till I make it. It’s that simple. 
 

 

[N201MKTurbo]

26 minutes ago, Freemasm said:

I'm not picking sides. I won't use my energy on a debate.  Some things to consider:

Swift is still moving forward on their offering as far as we know.

https://www.swiftfuels.com/swift-100r

I may be wrong (again) but I was personally put off by the smugness of the GAMI presentation at OSH. My impression was more of a  "we've got you" attitude than of humble achievement. Looking at all of the partnering required to get this to market, (compounding EBITs, multiple company management hierarchies, etc.), it's going to be expensive.  

I've stated some other positions/facts here (~half way down, page 2)

I'll reiterate one point. Competition will be our savior; more airframe MoGas STCs. multiple 100x suppliers, etc. To that end, a requirement or demonstrated/approved misciblity will be the biggest price point driver IMO. If there's real money to be made, expect Shell or other big oil to re-enter the future market. This is a long way from settled.

From a personal point, I'm very tempted to buy Swift's $100 "lifetime" STC to support that continued development. I was that put off by the attitude I perceived during the GAMI presentation; but, as previously mentioned, I've been wrong before.   

FWIW, at Airventure 2013 I had a discussion with George Braley about his ignition system. I asked what he thought about ion current sensing. He began yelling at me and calling me an idiot! I just asked a question. BTW, BMW uses ion current sensing on some of their cars, nobody is using GAMIs ignition system.

Edited August 2, 2021 by N201MKTurbo

[Unit74]

Free-

 

I didn't get that impression from Braly. But I did go WTF? STC to run a fully 100LL"fungible" gas as he put it.  That engine has no idea its NOT running 100LL, so whats the STC for?

[Bob - S50]

Lead is bad for everybody.  We should be glad we can get rid of it.

It costs me roughly $100/hour in operating expenses to fly my plane.  The increased cost of fuel will bring that up to roughly $110 - $115/hour.  That's 'only' a 10 - 15% increase in cost.

It has a bit higher energy content.  I've heard something between 1.5 and 3% more.  That brings my cost increase down to something around 7 - 13.5%.

I will be able to use a synthetic oil (once they start making it again) which will reduce friction and make my engine last longer.  That will reduce costs for me.

I'll also be able to use extended drain intervals to more than offset the higher cost of the synthetic oil.

I won't get lead deposits in the engine which will reduce maintenance costs and increase reliability.

As far as I know, there is only one producer of TEL in the world.  If something happened to that plant we would all be grounded for lack of fuel.

Without the lead, production and transport becomes easier which translates to cheaper and more dependable as opposed to our current shortage because they can't find enough drivers that can carry hazardous material.

I've heard the STC will cost between $1 and $2/HP, so roughly $200 to $600 for most of us.

If you can't afford an extra $8/hour to fly the plane, you should probably sell the plane to someone who can.

[Bob - S50]

1 hour ago, Unit74 said:

In short, F you, I won’t do it. I’ll pump it because I have to, or make a fake placard and fake it till I make it. It’s that simple. 

From what I can tell, as long as you use self serve, nothing would physically prevent someone from using the UL without buying the STC.  If you want the FBO to pump your gas, they will likely refuse if they don't see the decals that come with the STC.

Assuming you only use self serve, nothing would happen until something did.  Like being ramp checked or being involved in a reportable incident and they find out what you've been doing.  I'm guessing the FAA would likely view that as an intentional violation and yank your license.  It will cost a lot more to get the license back than you would save in STC cost.

Do you feel lucky?

[Bob - S50]

15 minutes ago, Unit74 said:

I didn't get that impression from Braly. But I did go WTF? STC to run a fully 100LL"fungible" gas as he put it.  That engine has no idea its NOT running 100LL, so whats the STC for?

To cover the cost of development and make a profit.  All the engines and equipment he has bought for testing. All the fuel and chemicals he's bought for testing.  All the man hours paid for during testing.

Don't begrudge the man for making money.  He may have just saved our planes by making a fuel available for us before the environmentalists shut down the production of 100LL without an alternative.  If we all think he is making so much money, we could have been the ones who spent 100's of thousands of dollars in development for something that might have never paid off.  But we didn't.  He did.  Just like those guys at Microsoft and Apple that gave us the computers we now have.  Or the guy that brought us Amazon for easy shopping.  Or the guys that developed cell phones.  Or microwaves. Or television. Or....

[chriscalandro]

3 hours ago, Bob - S50 said:

 

I've heard the STC will cost between $1 and $2/HP, so roughly $200 to $600 for most of us.

If you can't afford an extra $8/hour to fly the plane, you should probably sell the plane to someone who can.

There’s a difference between can’t and won’t for an alternative that has a few improved qualities at a significant premium. 
 

the quote was “how much is a MoGas STC? It will be comparable to that” or something along those lines. The MoGas STC is around 3k. 
 

Let’s say average fuel price right now is 5$, and let’s say this new alternative is 1.50 more(likely closer to 2)

That’s a 30% increase in fuel price, plus the cost of the STC.

 

you can do the math however you want, but when you do it right, this new alternative makes absolutely no sense until it’s mandated.  In which case every oil refiner in the world will be motivated to develop a solution.

When you look at the business model of how this 100ul is to be licensed, made, and distributed, thinking it’s only going to be 1-2$ more does not compute in any calculator. 

[Unit74]

4 hours ago, Bob - S50 said:

From what I can tell, as long as you use self serve, nothing would physically prevent someone from using the UL without buying the STC.  If you want the FBO to pump your gas, they will likely refuse if they don't see the decals that come with the STC.

Assuming you only use self serve, nothing would happen until something did.  Like being ramp checked or being involved in a reportable incident and they find out what you've been doing.  I'm guessing the FAA would likely view that as an intentional violation and yank your license.  It will cost a lot more to get the license back than you would save in STC cost.

Do you feel lucky?

 

 

The FAA would have no meaningful leg to stand on.  A piece of paper is not going to change the safety of the product. There is no magical stamp that somehow unlocks an engine to run it. And if it was the only fuel on the market, its a clear antitrust issue to begin with.

 

Yea, I'm not worried about it at all.

[RobertGary1]

23 hours ago, PeteMc said:

Not sure that I agree that "GA owners"are seen as any great threat.  Lead in any form has been on the list for YEARS (lead pipes/water, paint, auto gas, any number of other substances).  And with good reason.  You (we) hear about it all the time because we read the articles related to GA.  

But there is no question that lead will be gone from our fuel in the not so distant future.   I'm going to assume it will be G100LL formula that people start producing.  But maybe someone else will come out of the woodwork in the next few years with even a better option. 

 

Go to most any ga airport in California and you see this sign to the neighbors 

[GeeBee]

I'm wondering who is spending 3K for a Mogas STC? About the highest I've seen is 350.

 

[carusoam]

Let’s see…

Looking at this thread…  upside vs. downside…

1) We don’t like the sales guy….

2) We don’t like perceived added costs…

3) We don’t like single source fuels…

4) We don’t know the STC cost yet… if there is one.

5) There is plenty of upside for being lead free… especially for those flying in CA…

 

If all of the upside is better than all of the downside…. Wouldn’t that make it Worth it?

6) Worth getting the STC.

7) Worth listening to the sales spiel once.

8) Worth having a lead ball free ignition system.

9) Worth having better oils to lubricate things…

10) Worth having better TBOs, or just better chances of exceeding existing TBOs…

 

11) When selling a technical product… expect to have a team of sales guys… with varied styles…

12) In the end… we aren’t buying the sales guy.

13) Does the product work better, or not?

14) Some people actually like this quirky smug sales style… 

15) The sales guy knows within seconds if his style is working or not… the baton often gets handed to next style sales guy who is ready to pick up at the next tech chart…

16) Try to not accidentally kill the developing product until after we find out if it’s any good…  somebody else is doing the ground work, while we watch… enjoy the show.. ask some questions…

 

Some people really like their Gami products… some don’t… some have never tried…

Some people like the Savvy products… some don’t… some have never tried…

 

Put the G100UL in the category of untried, don’t know… love to see more… details, experience, costs…

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Hank]

9 hours ago, carusoam said:

2) We don’t like perceived added costs…  NOT AT ALL. The premise was originally lower cost, can be produced at any refinery, easy to transport. Now we're told the production cost is 25% higher? What's to like?

3) We don’t like single source fuels… Pretty much what we have now.

4) We don’t know the STC cost yet… if there is one. We've been told an expected significant cost. We get to pay up front in order to be able to buy the more expensive product? No thank you. 

 

9 hours ago, carusoam said:

8) Worth having a lead ball free ignition system. Don't have much of an issue with this.

9) Worth having better oils to lubricate things…

10) Worth having better TBOs, or just better chances of exceeding existing TBOs… Chances are chances. Not interested in paying by the hour to have a chance.¹

11) When selling a technical product… expect to have a team of sales guys… with varied styles… I'd rank their sales approach as discussed above as "a swing and a miss."

13) Does the product work better, or not? Nobody knows yet, and won't for quite a while. But $1/gal for 2000 hours is more than half of the cost to overhaul my engine. Where exactly is it saving money for me?

14) Some people actually like this quirky smug sales style… I do my best to avoid salesmen of all stripes. 

Some people really like their Gami products… some don’t… some have never tried… I prefer to buy the product, not the maker. No one has a 100% success rate.

Some people like the Savvy products… some don’t… some have never tried… see above.

Put the G100UL in the category of untried, don’t know… love to see more… details, experience, costs…

 

[Bob - S50]

22 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

Let’s say average fuel price right now is 5$, and let’s say this new alternative is 1.50 more(likely closer to 2)

That’s a 30% increase in fuel price, plus the cost of the STC.

He has said he expects about a $.60 to $.80/gallon increase, not $2.00. Price in my area is already closer to $6/gallon in my area.

[Hank]

14 minutes ago, Bob - S50 said:

He has said he expects about a $.60 to $.80/gallon increase, not $2.00. Price in my area is already closer to $6/gallon in my area.

GAME'S cost increase estimate was for the producer. Expect at least double that amount by the time the FBO sells it to you, maybe triple. Right now, I'm paying $4.31 for avgas, so adding ~$2/gal would be almost 50% increase. Not customer friendly, not a preferred option. How much business would Sam's/BJs/Costco have if their membership was $2000 and their prices were 50% higher than surrounding stores? Oh, that's right, the government is going to legislate the competition away, at least for unleaded avgas.

P.S.--bob, are you ready for $8/gal fuel? That's what this will be for you.