Viva Las Vegas !

[Ross Taylor]

Yup, Arizona has started doing well-publicized drive-thru testing blitzes (their description, not my word) so I'm not surprised the number of documented cases is increasing.  Here's the most recent ADHS testing chart...it really ramped up.

 

 

[ilovecornfields]

4 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

Yup, Arizona has started doing well-publicized drive-thru testing blitzes (their description, not my word) so I'm not surprised the number of documented cases is increasing.  Here's the most recent ADHS testing chart...it really ramped up.

 

 

If it were due to increased testing then your positive test rate would go down. Your positive test rate has gone UP meaning that as much as you would like to think so, it is NOT from increased testing but from increased number of cases. This was predictable.

 

Last time the positive test rate was 7.2%, now it’s 8.5%.

Edited June 4, 2020 by ilovecornfields
Added numbers

[Danb]

Many people haven’t been keeping there distance and disregarding common sense. I believe if we all keep our distance, wear our mask, keep our hands clean maybe we could get going with the new normal. I just went away for a week, the hotel was cleaner than ever, the restaurant was 25% capacity they cleaned chairs everything after each sitting, workers wore masks. No maid svc therefore no one enters your room. If everyone does there due diligence we’re ok, but a certain small amount won’t 

[flyboy0681]

3 minutes ago, Danb said:

Many people haven’t been keeping there distance and disregarding common sense. I believe if we all keep our distance, wear our mask, keep our hands clean maybe we could get going with the new normal. I just went away for a week, the hotel was cleaner than ever, the restaurant was 25% capacity they cleaned chairs everything after each sitting, workers wore masks. No maid svc therefore no one enters your room. If everyone does there due diligence we’re ok, but a certain small amount won’t 

I think I read that New York is down to just 49 deaths yesteday, which I found astounding given the numbers only three weeks ago.

[carusoam]

Oddly enough...

My The Weather Channel app I use to keep tabs on Corona virus Numbers in my Local county...

Is no longer working.... The button for the virus data has become a foot note that doesn’t seem to be attached any longer...

Its only been a few days since the last death occurred...

I don’t think my county has been cured yet...

Best regards,

-a-

[kmyfm20s]

2 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

If it were due to increased testing then your positive test rate would go down. Your positive test rate has gone UP meaning that as much as you would like to think so, it is NOT from increased testing but from increased number of cases. This was predictable.

 

Last time the positive test rate was 7.2%, now it’s 8.5%.

The border cities in the US have been getting hammered with US citizens that live in Mexico coming back across to receive treatment. The Mexican hospitals have been overwhelmed. El Centro hospital (Ca) is full and they have been transporting patients out of the airport I fly into KIPL (Imperial) by helicopters and Planes day and night to other hospitals that have enough space. Primarily San Diego and Riverside.  
 

[ilovecornfields]

43 minutes ago, kmyfm20s said:

The border cities in the US have been getting hammered with US citizens that live in Mexico coming back across to receive treatment. The Mexican hospitals have been overwhelmed. El Centro hospital (Ca) is full and they have been transporting patients out of the airport I fly into KIPL (Imperial) by helicopters and Planes day and night to other hospitals that have enough space. Primarily San Diego and Riverside.  
 

I’m sure it’s due to every possible excuse OTHER than a disregard for social distancing and proper hygiene. I guess the doctors and scientists have been wrong all along.

[kmyfm20s]

1 hour ago, ilovecornfields said:

I’m sure it’s due to every possible excuse OTHER than a disregard for social distancing and proper hygiene. I guess the doctors and scientists have been wrong all along.

I agree with and follow the CDC recommendations both personally and professionally. I don’t want to be the source of my family, friends, employees or patients getting sick. I recommend everyone follow the recommendations. 
I think anyone would agree if you get a fresh supply sick patients from out of the area it’s going to screw the numbers. It’s a contributing factor not the only factor. Flattening the curve doesn’t mean no one will ever get sick again. Reopening has to happen at some point and there will be new people getting sick as it occurs. You obviously see the worst of it and we are fortunate to have you helping these sick people. 
 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-05-20/help-on-the-way-imperial-hospitals-drop-covid-diversion-even-as-they-continue-transferring-patients

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2020/05/31/binational-response-cornonavirus-arizona-mexico-border-yuma/5276952002/

https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/discrepancies-in-el-paso-covid-19-reports-from-hospitals-treating-patients-from-juarez

[ilovecornfields]

19 minutes ago, kmyfm20s said:

I agree with and follow the CDC recommendations both personally and professionally. I don’t want to be the source of my family, friends, employees or patients getting sick. I recommend everyone follow the recommendations. 
I think anyone would agree if you get a fresh supply sick patients from out of the area it’s going to screw the numbers. It’s a contributing factor not the only factor. Flattening the curve doesn’t mean no one will ever get sick again. Reopening has to happen at some point and there will be new people getting sick as it occurs. You obviously see the worst of it and we are fortunate to have you helping these sick people. 
 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-05-20/help-on-the-way-imperial-hospitals-drop-covid-diversion-even-as-they-continue-transferring-patients

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2020/05/31/binational-response-cornonavirus-arizona-mexico-border-yuma/5276952002/

https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/discrepancies-in-el-paso-covid-19-reports-from-hospitals-treating-patients-from-juarez

Sorry if I’m a little defensive. I get frustrated with the “deniers” and people trying to attribute “bad” numbers to everything BUT the likely cause. I actually couldn’t tell from those articles how they were counting patients. I grew up in San Diego so I’ve been following that stuff pretty closely.

I appreciate you doing your part to keep people healthy so we can get the economy running. It confuses me how the same people who complain about the economy are the same ones trying to sabotage it by not taking the steps to keep people safe. I don’t know what they expect to happen if a bunch of people get sick and the rest are scared to leave their houses. Certainly not the recovery they claim to want. But then I guess logic hasn’t stood in their way so far...

[aviatoreb]

15 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

Sorry if I’m a little defensive. I get frustrated with the “deniers” and people trying to attribute “bad” numbers to everything BUT the likely cause. 

The Earth is still flat.  Get a rocket and check it out yourself then check in when you see the truth.

[ilovecornfields]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

The Earth is still flat.  Get a rocket and check it out yourself then check in when you see the truth.

I thought about getting a Rocket but I’m happy with the Ovation.

[aviatoreb]

1 minute ago, ilovecornfields said:

I thought about getting a Rocket but I’m happy with the Ovation.

An ovation won’t work.

you need a rocket to shoot yourself into the air to prove the Earth is flat.

oh brother -eh Ghad the incompetence are here / if you want something don’t right you need to do it yourself.  

Ok ok.  I launched myself in the sky In my rocket and I took this picture up hIGh From a million feet that ProVEs the earth is fLAt.  (Ignore that bumpy stuff in the distance).

[Hank]

5 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

An ovation won’t work.

you need a rocket to shoot yourself into the air to prove the Earth is flat.

oh brother -eh Ghad the incompetence are here / if you want something don’t right you need to do it yourself.  

Ok ok.  I launched myself in the sky In my rocket and I took this picture up hIGh From a million feet that ProVEs the earth is fLAt.  (Ignore that bumpy stuff in the distance).

It only counts if you build it yourself first, from your own design and castoff parts from the neighborhood garbage . . .

[carusoam]

Too much engineering in Rocket Engineering....
 

They have way too much documentation to read...

Gots to be more home built...  Seat of the pants...

 

 

In other news... This afternoon...

These people think they have a vaccine solution... They believe in it enough to start manufacturing at risk... (pre-phase III clinical trials)

So far they have proven it to be safe, just not effective..... yet.
 

I’m not sure why the CEO decided to go public on such a strong statement... That will come out soon enough...

Go Pharma industry!   
 

AstraZeneca is aiming to produce 2 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astrazeneca-is-set-to-make-two-billion-doses-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Message

It will be nice if this turns out to not be hype to sell a lot of digital newspapers...

‘AIM to produce’ is not exactly the same as planning to produce...

The key words that will be nice to hear... Is producing millions of doses...of (insert FDA/EMEA approved product name here)

Phase III is when wide scale commercial production starts....

PP thoughts only, not a pharmaceutical development engineer... or pharma finance guy.

Best regards,

-a-

[EricJ]

Unfortunately in Arizona hospitalizations and ICU occupation due to covid-19 are increasing, which is much more concerning than case increases due to increased testing.   Deaths have been on a quadratic trajectory for a long time.   I've been tracking Maricopa County (Phoenix area) data published by the county.

Hospitalization and ICU (hospitalization is the red trace, the blue dots are a best-fit linear model applied before the big jump a little while back, the blue line is the ICU cases, also with a best-fit linear model underneath it):

 

ICU by itself, which makes it a little easier to see that the rates were declining but reversed:

For reasons I don't understand, the deaths have been on a very quadratic trajectory for a long time.   The dashed line(s) underneath the trace include a quadratic curve-fit I did on May 3 and haven't changed since.  The blue dotted line is just the best-fit linear regression, which is really only useful to emphasize the bend in the trajectory.
 

Meanwhile our state and county governments are saying hospitalizations are declining.   My healthcare friends in hospitals are indicating otherwise, as does the data.   It's a very curious thing.

[Danb]

We all or most of us know that data can be skewed in a manner to meet the analyzers wanted expectations. So many times a set of data points are presented after analysis there may be varying many times extreme variances to substantiate the writer’s point of view.

Its a wonder why so many intellectuals obtain differing conclusions often reasons buried in notes or worse not at all.

Houston we still have a problem.

On another front I have a few clients that own gun and sporting goods stores. All there ammo most guns etc have been sold out, is a civil war on the horizon 

[carusoam]

Today’s data...

unemployment numbers improved... a surprise for everyone... (Wall Street ran in a strong positive direction...)
 

Many businesses in NJ have been given the ability to be open to the public... Scheduled out over the next few weeks...

Lots of modifications and restrictions to go with that...

My favorite restaurant is serving take-out, and has outdoor tables for your convenience...    No sharing a waitress...
 

We got it to go...   

When going out around here Masks for everyone... and gloves just in case...
 

The gym is going to have different ways to walk in the business and to leave is a different door...
 

Lots of video conferencing for family get togethers....

Lots of working from home...

Small steps... no giant leaps...

Traffic around town is back at a more normal level...

Doesn’t look like the end of the world is coming, at least not quickly...

 

Best regards,

-a-

[neilpilot]

7 hours ago, carusoam said:

When going out around here Masks for everyone... and gloves just in case...

In general, glasses likely provide more protection than gloves, assuming you have appropriate self control on what you touch.

[ilovecornfields]

And to bring this thread full circle...Vegas is open again!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/scenes-from-the-first-24-hours-as-las-vegas-casinos-reopen-photos-2044408/amp/

[MooneyMitch]

Something I think about.......

Internet, social media, instant communication, forums, etc.........

 

allows influencers, experts, social media opinion leaders, and more ( there are so many)......a vast pipeline to share all with all....... instantly and vastly!

 

Think back to days of Wm Randolph Hearst and just how long it took to disseminate, and what a narrow pipeline was available for such.

[EricJ]

On 6/4/2020 at 10:28 PM, EricJ said:

Meanwhile our state and county governments are saying hospitalizations are declining.   My healthcare friends in hospitals are indicating otherwise, as does the data.   It's a very curious thing.

Officials from our largest regional hospital chain are indicating that things are getting worse.   Be careful of areas that are opening too soon.   Some regions are seeing genuine decline (e.g., NY) and some that are opening are not (e.g., AZ).

https://www.verdenews.com/news/2020/jun/05/banner-hospital-official-predicts-arizona-headed-h

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/banner-says-icu-beds-are-approaching-100-capacity

[ilovecornfields]

43 minutes ago, EricJ said:

Officials from our largest regional hospital chain are indicating that things are getting worse.   Be careful of areas that are opening too soon.   Some regions are seeing genuine decline (e.g., NY) and some that are opening are not (e.g., AZ).

https://www.verdenews.com/news/2020/jun/05/banner-hospital-official-predicts-arizona-headed-h

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/banner-says-icu-beds-are-approaching-100-capacity

You must have missed the previous post by one of our esteemed community members in which he pointed out that there aren’t more sick people it’s just AZ is doing such a great job by testing more people...not sure how this explains the full ICUs though.

But who to believe? The physicians working in the hospital who spent their lives learning about this and see it EVERY DAY or the very vocal people on the internet who wear their ignorance with pride and brag about their reckless disregard of even the most basic precautions asked of them in order to protect themselves and others? Kind of like saying “I’ve never had an engine failure on takeoff so I don’t believe in them. I won’t live in fear by thinking about it.” That plan works perfectly...until it doesn’t. Unfortunately, with infectious diseases this ignorance hurts other people as much (or more) than it hurts you.

What I don’t get is how do these people fly planes? Or work on them? Would you get in a plane that was worked on by someone so completely oblivious to science and common sense that they made their decisions based on “feelings” and ignored all the published guidelines and facts? Would you want to fly in a plane piloted by a pilot that ignores all the weather warnings and skips his preflight, doesn’t check his fuel and takes off without a runup because he “doesn’t live in fear?” I certainly wouldn’t.

Mitch, we certainly have instant and open communication now, but I’m not sure how much better it is. About 5% of adults experience serious mental illness in any year, and a much higher percentage have personality disorders —and they all seem to have a keyboard and internet! Certainly makes for interesting times.

I’ve spoken to a lot of people about this (both publicly and privately) and it seems that most people actually “get it” and do the basic things like social distancing, wearing masks and washing hands. Unfortunately, it doesn’t take a lot of people acting stupid to get a large number of people sick.

A friend just texted me yesterday that his niece went to a family reunion and then developed a cough and fever. Went to the ER and was diagnosed with “croup” but mom pleaded for a COVID test which came back positive. 6 other people in the family are now symptomatic. The county they are in is so overwhelmed with cases that they are doing NO contact tracing so who knows how many people they infected.

You can’t claim to care about the economy, then not wear a mask, wash your hands and limit social interactions. Nothing will be more harmful to the economy than skyrocketing cases and another shutdown. 

Edited June 6, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[jaylw314]

On 6/5/2020 at 4:53 AM, Danb said:

We all or most of us know that data can be skewed in a manner to meet the analyzers wanted expectations. 

Respectfully, I disagree.

A basic understanding of statistics allows you to interpret that data, and the process of statistics is intended to produce transparency that allows one to see the potential bias or skew from another interpreter.

Taking the position that actual available information is simply useless because people interpret that information differently is simply nihilism, and there's already plenty of that to go around.  For that matter, that's been the legal position of most case law of people suing science in courts--"Scientists keep saying different things, so they must be wrong"  

[Danb]

Unfortunately being a stats major prior to switching to accounting I stand by my statement. I’m not doubting any analysis within this topic mine is a generalized statement most statistical profs would agree to.

 

[N9201A]

7 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

Respectfully, I disagree.

A basic understanding of statistics allows you to interpret that data, and the process of statistics is intended to produce transparency that allows one to see the potential bias or skew from another interpreter.

Taking the position that actual available information is simply useless because people interpret that information differently is simply nihilism, and there's already plenty of that to go around.  For that matter, that's been the legal position of most case law of people suing science in courts--"Scientists keep saying different things, so they must be wrong"  

This is dead on.

 

Unfortunately, too many people just ignore inconvenient facts that would change the conclusion, apply equal weight to expert v. lay analysis, or project their own worldview onto objective reality.

 

I’m seeing people say “we’ve flattened the curve” in states that never did anything but criticize NY, but when NY’s numbers drove the total US curve down, they’re declaring “victory.” I’ve been sent articles from “Dr. So-and-So” declaring “there is zero scientific evidence that wearing a mask protects us”....from a psychotherapist (who clearly slept through or missed classes in research, reasoning and critical thought, but is selling a lot of books to mask haters).

 

And of course, there is the bazillion-dollar fear-mongering industry built upon shouting how “they are coming to get us, and take away our way of life, blah blah blah...”. These trends are accelerated and worsened by social media and the internet, which are virtually unregulated and call for careful and critical scrutiny. “Consider the source” has never been more applicable, but many of us just want to quote a source, ANY source, that says what we want to say, or what we want the answer to be, instead of what the actual facts are.

 

I am not criticizing anyone here, since it is true there are those out there who lack integrity and just, well, lie...even when they’re sworn to defend and protect, and obligated to tell the truth. That is unfortunate.

 

That said, simply dismissing disagreeable facts because “anything can be manipulated” doesn’t add anything to the discussion. We can challenge the meaning of the words one uses, the perspective one has tinted by the inevitable inherent biases each of us has ingrained, or the reality bubble in which each of us lives, but none of that advances a discussion.

 

Common understanding, indeed, our entire civilization, depends upon finding common ground. If we simply dismiss objective facts because of tribalism, we aren’t just being lazy, we are corroding the common premise upon which our democracy is based.

 

The world is a big, scary, and complicated place. It is tempting to find easy solutions...if only there was a simple, answer to everything.

 

The truth is, people are complicated. There are gay, pro-abortion gun owners who attend church every Sunday. There are doctors who smoke cigarettes. Sure there are very simple people who fit a certain box, see everyone fitting “the other box,” and are happy with that world view, but that’s not applicable to most of the rest of us.

 

For most of us, there is no “THEY” that is our polar opposite seeking to end our world: The Blofeld to our Bond, the Luther to our Superman, the Moriarty to our Holmes. And were there, THEY have no more insight, organization, or superpowers than WE do. Build WE, and challenge anyone offering easy, jingoistic solutions. Question assumptions. Examine conclusions. Read history...and remember that we are ALL in this together.

Edited June 7, 2020 by N9201A