Hurricane Irma

[DaV8or]

Well, my wife and I have booked a VRBO on St. John's for the first week of November. I hope there is something left...   We absolutely love the Caribbean and are seriously considering retiring to Florida because we love the state and we would be near, or on the Caribbean. These events combined with all the creatures out there that want to kill you and freak my wife the hell out, are seriously making us reconsider. Still, if you like beaches and warm all year round and you want to remain in the US, there really is no other choice.

[Raptor05121]

10 minutes ago, DaV8or said:

Well, my wife and I have booked a VRBO on St. John's for the first week of November. I hope there is something left...   We absolutely love the Caribbean and are seriously considering retiring to Florida because we love the state and we would be near, or on the Caribbean. These events combined with all the creatures out there that want to kill you and freak my wife the hell out, are seriously making us reconsider. Still, if you like beaches and warm all year round and you want to remain in the US, there really is no other choice.

Let her know this isn't a common occurrence. I think the last time we were this worried was 2005 season (granted I can't speak for our Southern Florida members)

[1964-M20E]

Too early to tell yet but the spaghetti models are looking better moving Irma further to the east.  Hopefully that trend continues and the center travels  off Florida's east coast.   Irma will still be an issue but it will be much less than dragging it up the center of FL.

 

Still one mean storm.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[steingar]

9 hours ago, Raptor05121 said:

Let her know this isn't a common occurrence. I think the last time we were this worried was 2005 season (granted I can't speak for our Southern Florida members)

There was a hurricane drought for a decade, a lot of climate deniers used it as "proof" against anthropogenic climate change.  What the future will hold is, as always, anyone's guess.  but the drought seems to have ended with a vengeance.  Good luck to you all, Steinholme stands by to welcome refugees, and I think I know where you can get hangars.

[BGF_Yankee]

If anyone in Florida is trying to escape Irma with their aircraft, but don't know where to go, the Winchester Municipal Airport (BGF) in Winchester, TN can accept 9 to 10 light singles or twins. Storage hangar space will be made available free of charge on a first come, first served basis. Plenty of ramp space is available for free as well. The Franklin County Airport (UOS) has limited space available as well. Please just get out!

[Piloto]

At the closet point from San Juan, Puerto Rico TJSJ about 20nm from the eye wall I took these pictures on Garmin Pilot on my cell. Notice that the winds were not even Hurricane strength.

José

[flyboy0681]

Let's hope for the best Jose.

[Piloto]

2 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

Let's hope for the best Jose.

That is why I am coming after Irma.

José

[Raptor05121]

EOC activation this weekend. I'm working Monday and Tuesday night. I forsee a lot of downed trees and power lines and not much else.

[Bob_Belville]

On 9/4/2017 at 8:51 PM, Amelia said:

Not that we will be out of the woods here in coastal NC, but if by some stroke of luck, Edenton, NC looks like a safer place to hunker down, we have bedrooms for some, food for whoever shows up, and maybe some hangar space.

Mimi, if you need to boogie out of paradise yourselves there are several bedrooms here... I understand all MRN hangars are reserved but HKY might have space. 

[blurceo]

Talladega Superspeedway opened up free camping for people evacuating. KASN is right next door and KANB is down the road and has hotels. 

http://www.talladegasuperspeedway.com/A ... lcome.aspx

I'm out of 20GA and we have a few parking spots left. I'll be around this weekend if anyone needs a ride from 20GA, PUJ, FTY, or CTJ. Just let me know.

[82Mike]

Well 133DB is stuck at Tomlinson with no panel :(.  I am hoping my side (Naples) won't see as much of it.  Hurricanes are a part of life down here.  I have been here 15 years and this one might end up being the worst?  One lesson I learned.  Never have work done on your plane in the Summer.  I would just fly out if I could

[Oldguy]

3 hours ago, blurceo said:

Talladega Superspeedway opened up free camping for people evacuating. KASN is right next door and KANB is down the road and has hotels. 

http://www.talladegasuperspeedway.com/A ... lcome.aspx

I'm out of 20GA and we have a few parking spots left. I'll be around this weekend if anyone needs a ride from 20GA, PUJ, FTY, or CTJ. Just let me know.

My home drome, KPLR, is a whole 10 nm from Talladega with a Mooney mechanic, $4.20 100LL, hangars and tie downs. I can fit one in my hangar and have sleeping for up to 6 people in beds before we get to floor space. Dogs, cats, people and horses welcome.

PM if interested.

[bradp]

3 hours ago, 82Mike said:

Well 133DB is stuck at Tomlinson with no panel :(.  I am hoping my side (Naples) won't see as much of it.  Hurricanes are a part of life down here.  I have been here 15 years and this one might end up being the worst?  One lesson I learned.  Never have work done on your plane in the Summer.  I would just fly out if I could

Make sure she'll at least be indoors. ... :-( 

Looks like I'll be here in Wilmington NC until at least Monday depending on which direction the storm veers and what the work responsibilities will entail.  Right now the plan will be that the Mooney will be hangared in the RDU area, which I'm hoping will be sufficiently inland that they only get TS force winds.  The main concern inland, if I'm not mistaken, is with spawned severe thunderstorms with possibility of tornadoes rather than sustained winds.  

[aviatoreb]

Here's some guys with a strong airplane that understand Va

 

And here's the story of Delta 431 that went right into the skirts of the storm for a quick-turn.

https://twitter.com/AirlineFlyer/status/905440665806483456/photo/1

 

[flyboy0681]

Now that my shutters are all up and my hands have stopped bleeding, I was reading stories on Irma when I came across this one. Rush Limbaugh said on his Tuesday show that Irma is a hoax in order for the media and retailers to sell stuff. He also said the following, which is news to me:

 

Folks, what do you think the bright red area in the satellite imagery, radar imagery of a hurricane is? Mr. Snerdley, do you know what it is? No, no. What does the red represent, that giant blob of red? Not the center. No, no, no, no, no. I’m talking about the whole diameter, the red and the yellow and the green, what are those colors? What do they represent? No. Everybody thinks it represents rainfall. That’s not at all what it represents.

Cloud top temperature is what those colors mean. Bright red means coldest temperatures at the top of the clouds. It has nothing to do with precip. But people don’t know this, and they look at these giant graphics of these hurricanes, it’s moving up, it looks bigger than Cuba. When in fact the eye of the storm, any hurricane on average the real damage occurs in the 20- to 30-mile radius, circle around the eye. That’s where when you hear Category 5, that’s where the Category 5 winds are. They’re not throughout the whole thing. They’re not throughout the giant, big blog.

[Marcopolo]

  I think he's (Limbaugh) absolutely right except for the "hoax" part.  And his explanation doesn't lesson the destruction factor at all.  The "core" is the most dangerous area and that's the part that we would like to see stay east of the Florida coast.  There will be damage and lots of rain but the damage factor goes up exponentially as you get closer to the eye.  I think the point he's trying to make is more about how the media seems to describe the storm in a way that will increase the viewership and also the fear factor.  They use the highest windspeed they can find in the storm even if that part of the storm never touches land.  This tactic isn't necessarily a bad thing though as it does get some people moving away from what is a dangerous situation.  I'm from Hollywood Florida originally and I've seen my fair share of these face to face, never have good things come out of one that even skims the coast...except for the surfing conditions.

 

Ron

[flyboy0681]

1 hour ago, Marcopolo said:

  I think he's (Limbaugh) absolutely right except for the "hoax" part.  And his explanation doesn't lesson the destruction factor at all.  The "core" is the most dangerous area and that's the part that we would like to see stay east of the Florida coast.  There will be damage and lots of rain but the damage factor goes up exponentially as you get closer to the eye.  I think the point he's trying to make is more about how the media seems to describe the storm in a way that will increase the viewership and also the fear factor.  They use the highest windspeed they can find in the storm even if that part of the storm never touches land.  This tactic isn't necessarily a bad thing though as it does get some people moving away from what is a dangerous situation.  I'm from Hollywood Florida originally and I've seen my fair share of these face to face, never have good things come out of one that even skims the coast...except for the surfing conditions.

 

Ron

What about the colors on the satellite images, where red represents the coldest high altitude air temperature?

[MyNameIsNobody]

2 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

Now that my shutters are all up and my hands have stopped bleeding, I was reading stories on Irma when I came across this one. Rush Limbaugh said on his Tuesday show that Irma is a hoax in order for the media and retailers to sell stuff. He also said the following, which is news to me:

 

Folks, what do you think the bright red area in the satellite imagery, radar imagery of a hurricane is? Mr. Snerdley, do you know what it is? No, no. What does the red represent, that giant blob of red? Not the center. No, no, no, no, no. I’m talking about the whole diameter, the red and the yellow and the green, what are those colors? What do they represent? No. Everybody thinks it represents rainfall. That’s not at all what it represents.

Cloud top temperature is what those colors mean. Bright red means coldest temperatures at the top of the clouds. It has nothing to do with precip. But people don’t know this, and they look at these giant graphics of these hurricanes, it’s moving up, it looks bigger than Cuba. When in fact the eye of the storm, any hurricane on average the real damage occurs in the 20- to 30-mile radius, circle around the eye. That’s where when you hear Category 5, that’s where the Category 5 winds are. They’re not throughout the whole thing. They’re not throughout the giant, big blog.

I read the entire excerpt and your interpretation that he was calling it a "hoax" is misguided.  He elaborated on the "timing" and that there is still a lot of time left....He repeatedly said he didn't want to minimize concern, but why empty the shelves of bottled water?  Can you use tap water to fill containers?  Fill a bathtub with potable water?  His comments related to emptying shelves of batteries etc. when the storm may or may not hit...over a week out. Media DOES blow the event out of proportion.  Texas is still an open wound.  Take precautions.  Stay appraised of exposure, but panic buying?  NOPE.

[Mooneymite]

1 hour ago, Marcopolo said:

 This tactic isn't necessarily a bad thing though as it does get some people moving away from what is a dangerous situation. 

When you look at the bigger picture of where all these terrified people are going, I'm not sure that I-75 is any safer to life and limb than staying put in the fringe areas.

I live near I-75 south of Atlanta....not good!  We're 600 miles from MIA and Sam's and many local outlets are sold out of water, gasoline and other storm-staples.

When watching the main-line media, you have to remember that it's mission is not truth, or information, but to sell advertising.

Any questions?

[flyboy0681]

4 minutes ago, Mooneymite said:

When you look at the bigger picture of where all these terrified people are going, I'm not sure that I-75 is any safer to life and limb than staying put in the fringe areas.

I live near I-75 south of Atlanta....not good!  We're 600 miles from MIA and Sam's and many local outlets are sold out of water, gasoline and other storm-staples.

When watching the main-line media, you have to remember that it's mission is not truth, or information, but to sell advertising.

Any questions?

One question,  do the red satellite colors represent high altitude air temperatures?

[carusoam]

Weather logic....?

What Variable is being measured to depict the colored areas..?    Echo returns are the strongest in those areas... what causes strong echo returns..? Vertical air movement. Unstable air. Thermodynamics... really tall clouds... what is at the top of tall clouds? Really cold air...

I try to avoid flying into colored radar return areas.

Mostly, because the vertical air movement can be intense.

Intense vertical air movement is accompanied by thunderstorms...

Intense Thunderstorms are often accompanied by hail chunks...

The last time I tried to leave an area that was on the edge of a hurricane... ATC had me fly towards it, generally, while getting worked into the system...  flying in IMC, with increasing intense rain.  I was wondering how much water the Mooney air intake can consume and how well my fuel caps were sealed...

 

Always use two or more independent resources for important information...

The weather channel is always trying to help the masses of people that will wait to hit the road trying to leave by car... their advertisers include Home Depot.

As a pilot we have our weather resources updated within minutes of their availability.  What we do with it is what counts...

PP thoughts only.  Not a weather guy.

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Hank]

On 8/31/2017 at 10:40 PM, tigers2007 said:

Move your permanent base up by YooperRocketMan or I. No hurricanes, no earthquakes, and rarely any tornados. Just four seasons.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I sense disinformation, unless you mean Almost Winter, Winter, Deep Freeze and Not Winter Right Now. . . .    Did my time Up North, 5 years in Ohio and 9 more in WV, and I ain't leaving God's Country in a moving truck again!

On the other hand, I have family in the Carolinas, right in the latest storm path prediction. May make a run to CAE this weekend and bring one back for a couple days. It's close enough I can go round-trip without fueling up,  which will certainly make it easier.

Ya'll be careful out there, ya hear?!

[Tommy]

7 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

theNow that my shutters are all up and my hands have stopped bleeding, I was reading stories on Irma when I came across this one. Rush Limbaugh said on his Tuesday show that Irma is a hoax in order for the media and retailers to sell stuff. He also said the following, which is news to me:

 

Folks, what do you think the bright red area in the satellite imagery, radar imagery of a hurricane is? Mr. Snerdley, do you know what it is? No, no. What does the red represent, that giant blob of red? Not the center. No, no, no, no, no. I’m talking about the whole diameter, the red and the yellow and the green, what are those colors? What do they represent? No. Everybody thinks it represents rainfall. That’s not at all what it represents.

Cloud top temperature is what those colors mean. Bright red means coldest temperatures at the top of the clouds. It has nothing to do with precip. But people don’t know this, and they look at these giant graphics of these hurricanes, it’s moving up, it looks bigger than Cuba. When in fact the eye of the storm, any hurricane on average the real damage occurs in the 20- to 30-mile radius, circle around the eye. That’s where when you hear Category 5, that’s where the Category 5 winds are. They’re not throughout the whole thing. They’re not throughout the giant, big blog.

The NOAA never claimed those color images were predicted or actual rain fall. It was the viewers who "think" that. He then went on to say that this is a scare tactic and there onward diminishes NOAA credibility for pretty much anything it has to say including climate change which also frightens people - as it should. So he sets up a nice straw man using intentionality fallacy.  It's no fault of NOAA when people choose to believe what they want to believe but then went on further to say that it's all an evil plot to scare people for ulterior motives like viewerships etc is just maligned and disparaging.

 But one thing for sure, you won't be seeing him sunbathing in Miami this weekend. There is an English word to describe people like him, hypocrite. And the fact that he has a base audience of millions makes him a dangerous one. 

If the colour represents the cloud temp, then it does give an indirect indication of likely wind speed and rain fall encountered. Its like CHT is an indirect measurement of internal cylinder pressure. 

 

 

[flyboy0681]

6 minutes ago, Tommy said:

The NOAA never claimed those colour images were predicted or actual rain fall. It was the viewers who "think" that. He then went on to say that this is a scare tactic and there onward diminishes NOAA credibility for pretty much anything it has to say including climate change which also frightens people - as it should. So he sets up a nice straw man using intentionality fallacy. 

Typical Rush. But one thing for sure, you won't be seeing him sunbathing in Miami this weekend. There is an English word to describe people like him, hypocrite. And the fact that he has a base audience of millions makes him a dangerous one.

If the colour represents the cloud temp, then it does give an indirect indication of likely wind speed and rain fall encountered. Its like CHT is an indirect measurement of internal cylinder pressure. 

 

 

I'm sure he was the first to bug out on his G550. In all this mess I did learn something, I always thought the satellite image colors were water content.