Bob_Belville Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 I buddy of mine (who is selling an Archer II and looking to buy a C340a) told me tonight he met a guy who told him he was investing in planes. He expects prices for planes in the price range of his Archer or my Mooney to bump $15-$20,000 when 1200-1400 grounded pilots come back to flying. Make sense? Quote
clh Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 (edited) Will they continue to ground pilots for delusional behavior? As much as I would like to get rid of the annoyance of the medical. I think it will not likely happen in my lifetime.... Edited March 19, 2015 by clh Quote
carusoam Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 Depends on what one calls investing... That sounds more like a gamble... One botched PPI and the investment could become disastrous. Good potential business bump if you are in plane sales already. The next HGTV program... Flipping planes...? We could become wealthy selling advertising on the program. Quote
rbridges Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 Sounds challenging. It's not like you buy a plane and put it in a ziploc bag until it's ready to be used. Just keeping a plane in running condition and storing it costs $$$. Quote
Parker_Woodruff Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 I buddy of mine (who is selling an Archer II and looking to buy a C340a) told me tonight he met a guy who told him he was investing in planes. He expects prices for planes in the price range of his Archer or my Mooney to bump $15-$20,000 when 1200-1400 grounded pilots come back to flying. Make sense? I'm afraid that's an awful idea Quote
Andy95W Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 How do you make a small fortune in aviation? Start with a large fortune. Quote
fantom Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 With some of the for sale prices I've seen posted, that $15K bump might have already occurred. Quote
carqwik Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 Actually, when China opens up to GA and builds out its 2,800 GA airports, someone will go around buying used airplanes for resale in China...and that will certainly drive up prices. As to the original post...was this bar room talk? Quote
ryoder Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 I see this crap on for sale listings of Cessna 150s for some reason. As if the 150 will benefit most from the relaxed rules. Quote
Bob_Belville Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Posted March 19, 2015 As to the original post...was this bar room talk? No, the note to me was from a pretty successful investor and entrepreneur passing on the thinking of someone he knows who I presume is in a position to act on his vision. (I did not say there is a practical way to bet on the insight. But there's a futures market equivalent for lots of tangible assets besides common stock.) Or perhaps he's a used plane dealer and he's just saying he's building inventory above his normal levels by buying any bargain priced planes that he finds. We certainly have seen some low prices on MS in the past few months, M20Js for $50k, Cs for $25... Those are used car prices, not travel class airplanes. 1 Quote
Bob_Belville Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Posted March 19, 2015 So, the guy I've been quoting second hand offered $80k for my friend's '76 Archer II (low time engine, GTN750, autopilot, needs paint) and told him he had 2 other Cherokees and was on his way to pick up a C172. Quote
carusoam Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 We have a better chance of.... Plane prices increasing... While plane usage increases... Because, the price of 100LL has decreased... 50 gallons @ $2/gal = one C-note (still a lot, but better than two c-notes) It appears that the price of crude is near a bottom, at current conditions... 100LL hasn't finished coming down...? How long it stays down, is impossible to see. Now, combine the two driving forces (fuel price and 'class III free' pilots) add in the re-write of part 23... The future is starting to look a bit brighter... Best regards, -a- 2 Quote
Bob - S50 Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 I thought I remembered reading somewhere that under the proposed rules, you could only continue to fly using your driver's license as proof of fitness if you had not been refused an FAA physical. That is, if you have been passing your physicals you won't need one. If you've failed a physical, you still can't fly. You would have to pass a physical at least once before you stop taking them. I have a special issuance on my physical. I'll be curious to see what the ruling on needing to continue getting a physical would be based on that. Bob Quote
rbp Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 some of the people who have SIs have been saying that if the rule passes, they are going to let the SI expire, without a new physical, and fly under the new rule Quote
Bob_Belville Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Posted March 19, 2015 And I wonder if some of the insurance companies might make a Class III (or higher) a requirement for the primary pilot. ? Quote
bonal Posted March 19, 2015 Report Posted March 19, 2015 Will they continue to ground pilots for delusional behavior? As much as I would like to get rid of the annoyance of the medical. I think it will not likely happen in my lifetime.... Isn't delusional behavior and having a pilots license the same thing? 1 Quote
Hank Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 Isn't delusional behavior and having a pilots license the same thing? No, that's delusional behavior and owning an airplane. Quote
kris_adams Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 Well, if the rule goes through I will be keeping mine for a long time. If it doesn't...not sure. I'm sure hoping something goes through Quote
xcrmckenna Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 I have thought about that, as I'm getting closer and closer "I hope" to buying a plane. But I'm guessing if the ads-b requirement in 2020 holds it will take more of a bite out of planes not equipped than an increase of pilots flying. Cuz not all the pilots that start flying if the class III goes away will buy a plane. Quote
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 I buddy of mine (who is selling an Archer II and looking to buy a C340a) told me tonight he met a guy who told him he was investing in planes. He expects prices for planes in the price range of his Archer or my Mooney to bump $15-$20,000 when 1200-1400 grounded pilots come back to flying. Make sense? What arguably makes more sense than this is investing in planes now with the expectation that a part 23 re-write will allow for the owner-maintained category. Certainly the 23 re-write is not a done-deal. But the lower costs associated of ownership and maintenance with a re-write would/will make GA financially accessible to 2-5 times more people than who currently fly (not just 1200-1400 grounded pilots). E.g. 2-5x the possible market (I made up the numbers, but 2x isn't a stretch, and literally doubles the market demand). A part 23 re-write PLUS abolishment of the 3rd glass will get things hopping again. Conversely, if we don't get these things in the next 2-3 years, I would expect certified plane costs to continue to decrease as fewer and fewer people are able to afford certified GA. Quote
ryoder Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 The ASTM rules require manufacturers to approve any mods to a SLSA. If the mfr doesn't exist or doesn't feel like approving something then the owner is stuck. The same is not the case with ELSA which is experimental. I wonder if the part 23 will put ours into a similar situation as the SLSA where Mooney will have to approve my G3X install and provide the docs to complete it? That would stink. Quote
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 The ASTM rules require manufacturers to approve any mods to a SLSA. If the mfr doesn't exist or doesn't feel like approving something then the owner is stuck. The same is not the case with ELSA which is experimental. I wonder if the part 23 will put ours into a similar situation as the SLSA where Mooney will have to approve my G3X install and provide the docs to complete it? That would stink. The PNC/Part 23 proposal didn't suggest this previously. It did require that the plane converting to PNC be at least 20 years old. Given that the GARA limits the liabilty of aircraft manufacturers to aircraft produced in the last 18 years, I don't think that manufacturers at this point want to recognize the existence of the ageing fleet, no less have to comment on the suitability of non-TSO'd equipment and/or non-engineered airframe changes in said fleet. Quote
Andy95W Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 A part 23 re-write PLUS abolishment of the 3rd glass will get things hopping again. Conversely, if we don't get these things in the next 2-3 years, I would expect certified plane costs to continue to decrease as fewer and fewer people are able to afford certified GA. I'm still very skeptical. While I do think that there will always be people who want to fly airplanes, it seems to be a smaller percentage of the overall population than in the past- particularly compared to when most of us were kids. Why go to the trouble of learning to fly an airplane, with all the associated (and boring) regulations, when you can learn to fly a flight simulator? If a kid today can't differentiate between his/her Facebook friends and real flesh and blood friends, why would they care about the difference between real and virtual flying? News reports are saying that fewer kids today, compared to my/our generation, care about getting their driver's licenses. Why would they want to get their pilot's licenses, instead, regardless of medicals and Part 23 rewrites? Quote
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Report Posted March 20, 2015 I'm still very skeptical....News reports are saying that fewer kids today, compared to my/our generation, care about getting their driver's licenses. Why would they want to get their pilot's licenses, instead, regardless of medicals and Part 23 rewrites? I agree with this concern. I once served as ground crew for an EAA Young Eagles event. While helping a boy of about 12 years off the wing of a Cherokee after his flight I asked him how he liked it. He responded with something like "it was fun, but not as fun as a video game." Horrible. When I was a kid just being in the immediate presence of a small plane was like wonderland...same with several of my friends at that age. I would still observe that there are many people falling out of aviation secondary to cost issues...and people who could afford to fly if it was a little less expensive. There are a lot of planes sitting around every airport that simply are not cost-effective to get back into flying shape under the current rules. I'd bet that a relatively high percentage of these planes would make it back into the air if people could legally pull the trick of using, for example, non-certified NAPA wheel bearings that are the exact same as the certified part except for the additional stamp and quadruple the cost. And of course the cost for a panel would drop by 50-75%. We needn't look further than the EAA community (at least until it was taken over by the warbird community) to see the continued interest in GA. I basically bought my Mooney instead of building a RV-10 because the Mooney can be bought at a fraction of the price of a RV-10.. If part 23 changes don't materialize in the next few years, the Mooney will be for sale. Quote
ryoder Posted March 22, 2015 Report Posted March 22, 2015 Tom I 110% agree with everything you just said. I would rather have a new RV10 but can't afford one. If they drop down to 50k then I'll switch. I want a newer airframe with low repair and upgrade costs and much less BS. They really need to get this rewrite underway. Quote
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