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Posted

I had a chance to talk with the Mooney factory reps and brought up bringing the 201 back in to production. The sales market would certainly be bigger with a much more affordable airplane than their last production model. The 201 is in my opinion the Van's RV of the experimental market, "Best bang for the Buck"! Hello Mooney, bring back the 201!!

David

Posted

Hi Scott, there was this long pause of silence and then a conversation about re-furbing M20 J's & K's. I don't think that's a bad idea depending on options and cost. In my final comment, I said there are more of us able to afford something other than the high end.

I'm hopeful others will tell them the same and that it makes business sense to resume new production versus refurbs.

David

Posted

I too think there would be a market for refurbs, but not if they apply some of their crazy-high pricing.  Back when they offered new-style interior refurbs I thought it was great, but then they quoted something like $25k.  Uh, not a chance.  I speculate 90%+ of the fleet has hull values less than $150k, and most of those $100k or less.  Very few of us would spend that kind of money on an interior.  I suspect there would be a market for a refurb J or K at $200k with a new/reman engine, resealed tanks, new cosmetics, and a modern IFR panel...not G1000.  

 

I still maintain that we'll never see a new production J or K because the costs are too high.  The labor and raw material difference between a J/K and an R/TN are so slight (I'm guessing less than $20k) that they just wouldn't sell.  People like you and I (and most on this site) that value efficiency and economy (in purchase price and operating cost) cannot buy a $500k Mooney.  If we could, we would very likely choose a $500k M20R over a $480k M20J.  That was the case when the J went out of production in the late 90s, and I'm sure it is still true today.  

 

On the bright side, though, in my conversation with one of the officers, he mentioned the great strides in reducing labor hours that were made just prior to the shutdown.  I was shocked, frankly, but he said they got ~2000 hours of labor out of the process!  Better late than never, but if that doesn't result in a $100k price reduction if/when production resumes, then the future will remain bleak.  With the current competition in the new plane market, I'm afraid Mooney really needs to be less expensive since the competitors have more interior room, 2 doors, better payload, etc. these days.  Trying to differentiate the brand as exotic, hand-built, boutique, etc. while true isn't a persuading argument IMO.  Speed, efficiency, safety, strength are all high points, but I feel price needs to be less to really get some sales vs. Cirrus and Corvalis, and to a lesser extent Beech.

  • Like 2
Posted

All I can add is that when I first visited the Mooney Booth on Monday morning, the COO was having his picture taken with quite a few well dressed (as opposed to us pilot types) Chinese men and women.  Most photos were one on one with the various Chinese folk, and there was a great deal of smiles all around.  I didn't see any of them upon later visits to the Mooney booth. I did have a few 5 to 10 minute conversations with the COO, and Jerry, an Asian  Ph. d. aeronautical engineer employed by Mooney, whose business card indicated that he was more involved with business development than acting as an aeronautical engineer. All a bit strange. None of the Mooney folk there were really taking about the future, except to say that a parts only future was not viable, and that they were "optimistic" about Mooney's future.  They know something, but they are not talking publically, yet. For some reason, Jerry kept talking about the idea of a wider Mooney. Not sure what he meant, and he didn't seem at all interested in learning about the interior mod from Aircraft Design that creates an armrest space that virtually touches the outer skin. I have these, and they increase elbow room by several inches. The newest Beechcraft use these, as Tim at Aircraft Designs ships complete interiors to them for their refurbishment program. 

 

For what it is worth, there were two Chinese pavilions at Oshkosh this year. Some day, but perhaps not immediately, China will, in my opinion, be a huge market for general aviation - perhaps motivated by status and ego considerations.  I've made more than a few trips to China over the last thirty years, and watched the bicycle transport system move on to small motorbikes, both gasoline and electric, larger motorcycles, small cheap cars, and now BMWs, Buicks, and Mercedes.  The roads may be jammed, with few freeways, but many in the emerging middle class are buying automobiles. New flight schools are being established, and as we know Chinese companies have been buying up American engine manufacturers, aircraft builders, and they are building portions of airliners, while they also are designing and building passenger jets. To me, Mooney seems like an unlikely target for acquisition with old highly labor intensive metal technology, but who knows. 

Posted

I too think there would be a market for refurbs, but not if they apply some of their crazy-high pricing.  Back when they offered new-style interior refurbs I thought it was great, but then they quoted something like $25k.  Uh, not a chance.

 Excellent post, Scott!

 

The factory has tried their hand and refurbs several times, and their prices were always way high, new production always trumped promised delivery dates, and it just wasn't their unique skill.

 

I suspect new plane manufacturing skill just doesn't translate into the competitive refurb market without a major change in business philosophy. Too many others doing a better job. As an example, the factory used to send out yokes to Aero Comfort for leather covering and mark them up 100%. Poor business decision.

 

They could do it, and do it well, but I don't think it's where their heart lies.

Posted

All I'd like is a cost effective turbo for my J with a auto waste gate and intercooler. I just hate having to go from a "known condition airplane" and venture into the unknown with a new hull.

:(

Posted

None of the Mooney folk there were really taking about the future, except to say that a parts only future was not viable, and that they were "optimistic" about Mooney's future.

 

Wow. That's really too bad. As far as I can see, this is the only viable future for MAC. As a side venture to parts manufacturing, I can also see the refurb program.

 

To me, Mooney seems like an unlikely target for acquisition with old highly labor intensive metal technology, but who knows.

 

100% agree. I can see no reason why a Chinese investor, or and investor from any nation, would want to acquire Mooney. They are 1960s tech at best and the new GA market here in the US has already rejected them. What Mooney needs to thrive in the new airplane market, is a whole new, fresh sheet of paper, 21st century airplane to compete. Given that, to an investor, Mooney brings almost nothing to the table.

Posted

There is some value in taking later model airplanes, such as 201s, 231s, and Ovations and totally redoing them. Sure, its going to be 250K, but there are enough pilots on this board with that much in their planes as it is, and a factory standing behind it can do it cheaper than a shop.  Think about a 200K 201 thats totally redone, or a 231 converted to a 252 Encore.

Posted

That is my thought too, Byron.  I think they could take some of these bottom-of-the-market J/K airframes at $60k +/- and bring them up to modern specs and sell them at $200k while making some money.  

 

A couple bits of good news I learned on Friday... they just purchased a missing blanket/pad of some sort that was needed for elevator skin stamping, and they still have all of the old tools for things like 201 cowls.  I had feared that they got scrapped long ago, but they are in a warehouse waiting for use.

Posted

There is some value in taking later model airplanes, such as 201s, 231s, and Ovations and totally redoing them. Sure, its going to be 250K, but there are enough pilots on this board with that much in their planes as it is, and a factory standing behind it can do it cheaper than a shop.  Think about a 200K 201 thats totally redone, or a 231 converted to a 252 Encore.

 

Well, that's the real question isn't it. Can you really buy up used Js and Ks, re-manufacture them to like new condition complete with avionics upgrades, sell them at price low enough to lure potential customers away from the rest of the heavily discounted used market and make a profit? During the re-manufacturing process, what level of standards do you use? How far do you go towards making a plane new again? Is there a warranty? What is the new liability?

 

You say it's going to be a $250,000 airplane. Is that based on a guess, or is that just what you think it would have to be to sell? I think if Mooney were to do this, it would likely sell for more than that.

 

The difference is kind of like the engine market. There is rebuilt, re-manufactured and new. IMO, I doubt MAC would be doing rebuilt. It wouldn't just be a new coat of paint, new engine, new interior, new avionics, and then the rest of the plane IRAN. It would most likely be new everything that can, could, or did have wear gets replaced. That means all new bearings, hardware and connectors everywhere. New wiring harness, new rubber everywhere, all new electrical components and motors, new plastic everywhere and hoses and hydraulics to name probably just a few. To maintain brand integrity and to limit liability, I think this is what they'd do.

 

When you consider there is also labor costs involved with acquiring the airframes and then carefully disassembling them, you see that there is a lot of expense in doing such a thing and they really are only reusing and saving on the basic airframe parts. If they could say get the cost of building a new J down to $500,000 and I'm not saying they actually can, I would guess that the re-manufactured plane would be about $350,000- $400,000. Would people still go for this?

Posted

I'm of the opinion that everything does NOT need to be replaced...I'm not envisioning a like-new plane at $200-$250k, but a refurbished plane, which means fixing what needs to be fixed.  That could be variable for each airframe, and perhaps the cost could vary as well, especially if each plane is "pre-sold" and the new owner chooses what gets done.  Perhaps a candidate airframe has a 1000 SMOH engine that is documented, running well, and running regularly...a savvy new owner might choose to keep flying that one and delaying an overhaul.  Ditto for fuel tank resealing.  In my mind, fixing the orange/red/brown plaid interior, avocado green paint, cloudy windows, and panel full of 30+ year old avionics would be the primary changes.  Perhaps the instrument panel could be standardized for such a venture such that Mooney could make some new wiring harnesses in bulk instead of custom-altering each one?  

The main goal should be to get some of the craftsmen/women back inside the facility and working, while improving/preserving the existing fleet and keeping the flame going.  If Mooney "needs" to get $25k for an 8-10K interior job, though, then this won't work of course.

Posted

I'm of the opinion that everything does NOT need to be replaced...I'm not envisioning a like-new plane at $200-$250k, but a refurbished plane, which means fixing what needs to be fixed.  That could be variable for each airframe, and perhaps the cost could vary as well, especially if each plane is "pre-sold" and the new owner chooses what gets done.  Perhaps a candidate airframe has a 1000 SMOH engine that is documented, running well, and running regularly...a savvy new owner might choose to keep flying that one and delaying an overhaul.  Ditto for fuel tank resealing.  In my mind, fixing the orange/red/brown plaid interior, avocado green paint, cloudy windows, and panel full of 30+ year old avionics would be the primary changes.  Perhaps the instrument panel could be standardized for such a venture such that Mooney could make some new wiring harnesses in bulk instead of custom-altering each one?  

The main goal should be to get some of the craftsmen/women back inside the facility and working, while improving/preserving the existing fleet and keeping the flame going.  If Mooney "needs" to get $25k for an 8-10K interior job, though, then this won't work of course.

 

The problem with that approach is, you're not getting anything that you can't get now from any number of sources. If you buy a rebuilt Mooney from the "Mooney Factory" there is the implication that somehow the airplane is better than rebuilt elsewhere and that it meets a higher standard than other facilities. This opens MAC up for more liability should there ever be an issue and we all know there eventually would be. At the end of the day you still have a used airplane with some new stuff on it, not a remanufactured Mooney that is nearly as good as a new one. This is why IMO, MAC will never pursue the basic rebuild program. Others have tried this and failed.

Posted

Ok, I think we're just debating nits... I'm of the opinion that such planes wouldn't need to be classified as "rebuilt" or "factory-certified" or anything of the like.  There have been a few 80's J/K models on the market in the last few years for $150+ after going thru a spiffy-up by a used plane seller, and I believe they've sold a few of them.  I presume they made money, but perhaps not.  Yes, Mooney could do something above and beyond this, but I postulate that they would face the same problem today that they did in the late 90s when the Js and Ks went out of production... customers that can buy a $350k or $400k plane (if that is where these would end up) most likely could buy a $500k new one as well, and are not primarily concerned with the lower operating cost and efficiency of these models when compared to an R or TN.  

 

If someone was looking at a $100k J or K for example, but in need of cosmetics, panel updating, etc., they might seriously consider a turn-key example in the $150-$200k that won't take a year of de-squawking and "general contracting" to get it up to their expectations.  

 

My hunch is that Mooney could spec a new, updated and standardized panel, and create some wiring harnesses in bulk, strike an OEM deal for GPS/Com boxes in lots of 10, Aspen, G500, gyros, whatever, and fabricate these on a bench and drop them into an older plane economically.  Trying to integrate a GTN box into a 30+ year old panel would be much more labor intensive.  Perhaps an STEC A/P option could be pre-wired too.  A major assumption is if Mooney has the cash to buy avionics in bulk and could get OEM pricing.  

 

It is fun to dream about it in any case...

Posted

I’ve thought of this as well and ultimately I think the numbers will not work just like the numbers of producing a new J model don’t work well either.

 

The biggest problem is GA it  is a victim of its own success.  The airplanes built because of good engineering and countless lawsuits are so over built that they can easily last 50 to 60 years even with neglected maintenance.   If a new 201 could be had for $150k (I know pipe dream) then you could write it off and recycle it after 15 or 20 years and 2500 to 4000 TT on the plane.  How many 50 and 60 year old cars do you see on the road?  For that matter how many 20 year old cars are on the highway percentage wise I’d bet much less than the percentage of 50 year old planes that are still flying.  I guess the trick is to design the plane so that it will be reliable and safe and last 20 years without overdesigning it  such that it will last 100 years.

 

This brings up another thread  what is your dream Mooney.

Posted

I'd love to see a breakdown of what a new Mooney could be built for?    For fun, I used the Vans cost estimator for a basic VFR RV10.   It came out around $145K.  Appropriately 60K for the airframe, and 60Kfor the engine and prop.   I don't see this as being possible until the price of engines and avionics is more reasonable.

Posted

There are greater than 4000 man-hours of labor involved in a Mooney, so pick whatever labor rate you think is reasonable and start there...  I'm sure the Van's estimator has labor at $0/hr of course.

 

I speculate that OEM pricing for an IO-550 and prop at $60k is right in the ballpark too.  I have no idea what a G1000 system costs, but I bet it is $50k or more at OEM price.  Aluminum and steel wouldn't add up to a whole lot since the big price of the airframe is in the labor.

Posted

Ok, I think we're just debating nits... I'm of the opinion that such planes wouldn't need to be classified as "rebuilt" or "factory-certified" or anything of the like.  There have been a few 80's J/K models on the market in the last few years for $150+ after going thru a spiffy-up by a used plane seller, and I believe they've sold a few of them.  I presume they made money, but perhaps not.  Yes, Mooney could do something above and beyond this, but I postulate that they would face the same problem today that they did in the late 90s when the Js and Ks went out of production... customers that can buy a $350k or $400k plane (if that is where these would end up) most likely could buy a $500k new one as well, and are not primarily concerned with the lower operating cost and efficiency of these models when compared to an R or TN.  

 

If someone was looking at a $100k J or K for example, but in need of cosmetics, panel updating, etc., they might seriously consider a turn-key example in the $150-$200k that won't take a year of de-squawking and "general contracting" to get it up to their expectations.  

 

My hunch is that Mooney could spec a new, updated and standardized panel, and create some wiring harnesses in bulk, strike an OEM deal for GPS/Com boxes in lots of 10, Aspen, G500, gyros, whatever, and fabricate these on a bench and drop them into an older plane economically.  Trying to integrate a GTN box into a 30+ year old panel would be much more labor intensive.  Perhaps an STEC A/P option could be pre-wired too.  A major assumption is if Mooney has the cash to buy avionics in bulk and could get OEM pricing.  

 

It is fun to dream about it in any case...

 

Exactly. Take a ratty old 1978-1985 M20J off the market for 50 grand, strip the interior and paint, replace components as needed. Then hang a factory OH engine on it and FWF refit, strip the interior and replace with the new style interior and upholstery,  new paint, new panel with a couple options, Aspen, G500, GTN-650/750.  You can do that for 175K and offer a year warranty on it.  Do this 10 at a time and the economy of scale kicks in, just make a production run of them. If the sell, do 10 more.  plus you have the factory gainfully employed making parts and the factory standing behind freshened up airplanes.

 

Think about the options out there, DIY for 200K and a couple years of your life, 700K for a G36 Bonanza or Cirrus.  Or get lucky and find someone with one of these planes totally redone and buy it. Craig's is coming for sale soon, but the other two guys I know with these type planes aren't selling. 

Posted

There are greater than 4000 man-hours of labor involved in a Mooney, so pick whatever labor rate you think is reasonable and start there...  I'm sure the Van's estimator has labor at $0/hr of course.

 

I speculate that OEM pricing for an IO-550 and prop at $60k is right in the ballpark too.  I have no idea what a G1000 system costs, but I bet it is $50k or more at OEM price.  Aluminum and steel wouldn't add up to a whole lot since the big price of the airframe is in the labor.

 

Scott you are quite right labor is a major portion of the cost and if you figure $40 to $50 per hour average total cost of employment you are looking at $160k to $200k just for labor.  This is where economies of scale, properly manned work force, modern production methods and automation could help.  You would need to get the labor under 2000 hours preferably in the 1500 range.  Heck you can get some pretty specialized custom built road vehicles in the $160k range.

 

I see the biggest problem being the FAA and their certification process.  With today’s technology glass cockpits do not need to cost as much as they do.  New modern automotive derived engines with EFI and electronic ignition capable of being run on 87 octane E10 to E85 should already be standard in the GA fleet.

 

I firmly believe that if you could put out a 200HP to 250HP HP 4 place aircraft running on 87 octane with higher efficiencies than we already have in our Moonies in the $160k range you could sell them and you could get more people to fly.  We have efficient airframes of proven designs take your pick M,C, P or B and other that have faded into the sunset what we need is a reasonably priced power plant, avionics and efficient manufacturing process for the planes.

 

Maybe it is time the small plane manufactures B, C, M, & P got together on building airframes so as to take advantage of economies of scale in purchase of engines, avionics, materials, labor force etc.  Take the Airbus approach and have many parts built in many difference specialized places with final assembly at one place for each manufacturer.

 

 

 

Posted

Factory refurbishment vs. Do It Yourself: One major issue is profit. If the factory were to (problematical in my opinion) totally refurbish, say a J or K, and offer some sort of limited warranty for their work, they would be entitled to a reasonable profit. They would also have to (I suspect) standardize the paint, interior, and panel to gain some economies of scale. In contrast, one can buy a decent J or K and decide just how much customization they want performed, and while the price per unit of change might be higher, at least you get exactly what you want.  I'll personalize this.  I bought a decent J about two and a half years ago that already had a LoPresti cowl, PowerFlow exhaust, one piece belly pan, a Hartzell Top Prop, and some usable avionics. The engine was low time; about 350 hrs, with flow matched cylinders.  Yes, many of these "goodies came about when the very experienced CFI prior owner simply forgot to put down the gear. No real damage, and LASAR provided all the parts needed to get the airplane back in great shape. I bought this aircraft for $85,000, and had LASAR completely refurbish just about all the wear parts with new, or rebuilt units.  Their bill was in the vicinity of $20,000 (and worth every penny in knowing that this was as close to having a new airframe as reasonably possible). So now I have spent about $105,000 for a 1983 M20 J that could be flown "as is" for many hours. I decided, however, that this was most likely to be my final aircraft (I'm 78 now) and so I would continue having the airplane customized up to my personal standards.  I had ArtCraft strip and paint the airplane with 5 (mostly metallic) colors and a clear top coat, including some airbrushed stripes.  The cost was in the area of $15,000, and I had exactly what I wanted in design and execution. We are now up to about $120,000.   I flew the airplane to Aircraft Designs at Pine Mountain Lake in CA, and Tim Hallock built an entire custom leather interior, again to my personal specifications, and the cost (including the yokes) was in the vicinity of $18,000, bringing the total to $138,000. The third major step was to have a custom panel built with the avionics I wanted.  I flew N335BB to Executive Aircraft Maintenance in Scottsdale, AZ to this work.  I ended up with all new sheetmetal for the panel, and a GTN 750, a GTN 650, a Aera 796 in an AirGizmo mount, a bunch of two inch instruments (Vacuum, MP, Tach), a carbon monoxide detector in the panel, an Emerging Life Technologies 406 ELT, a GDL 88 ADS-B-In/Out setup, a flush mounted JPI 830, and much more.  The avionics upgrade (after selling off the perfectly good Bendix King radios, GPS, etc) was something under $50,000, so now I have as close to a new M20 J as possible at a cost of about $188,000. What would Mooney have to charge to get to the same place, including their profit, and what about the LoPresiti cowl, PowerFlow exhaust, etc? Another personal question to me. Would I pay say $250,000 for a factory refurbished M20 J, with whatever parameters Mooney might impose?  Probably not.  I like my customization, and the process of working out paint designs, interior choices, and panel redesign was great fun for me.  Sure I lost some flying time while the work was being done, and a factory rebfurbishmet might well be quicker, but I met some great craftsmen and women in the process, who I now count among my friends. To be fair, I would expect a Mooney factory refurbishment to maintain a higher market value than my DIY project, but I really don't care.  I don't expect to get all my money back when I sell her, but that is true of the cars I buy as well. I do think that when the time comes, I can sell this airplane at the upper reaches for M20 Js whenever that might be, and I am certainly enjoying this airplane now. 

  • Like 2
Posted

Excellent report Bennett, and I'm sooooo glad someone from CA realizes that profit isn't a bad word. ;)

 

I'd like to believe potential Mooney investors have looked at all these scenarios, and I'm fairly certain they have. I have an Industrial Engineering degree, and a Production Engineering PE licence. As such, I was very interested in the factory manufacturing of my new J back in late '93 and early '94. About 4,300 production hours. Given overhead, avionics, interior, lousy paint job, engine and other equipment costs, management expense, sales commissions, debt retirement and whatever else....I was amazed they could even break even at a bit over 200 grand, and in fact, they didn't. I'm glad to hear they have reduced those production hours significantly.

 

Let's face facts, new Mooney production, they way it used to be, will not happen, buying up old J's for 50 grand (if they could be found) redoing them and marketing them for under 200 grand isn't realistic. For MAC to be resurrected something dramatically different needs to occur, and I won't even get into the economic, regulatory and political disincentives and roadblocks keeping that from happening.

 

As most of us know there are a handful of elaborately redone J's and in at least once case, a pre J on this board. None of them could sell for anything close to what the owners lovingly put into them. The owners knew this ahead of the investment, as do most of us every time we put big money into or onto our birds. That's just the way it is.

 

From my perspective, Mooney might do well by producing totally bare bone J airframes with minimal instrumentation, hopefully with a new and better cowl, drippless fuel tanks, and the latest/best/new Lycoming engine. It's what Mooney knows and does best. Then either contract with a dozen paint, interior and avionics shops around the country and let the typical 'frugal' (CB) Mooney buyer do his/her own thing. These shops, under the new owner's guidance can do what they know and do best. An option, of course, would be to let the owner contract out, or do the work him/her self....even if it's not what they do best. Isn't this kinda like model of what some Mooneyspace folks, like Bennett, Bob and Craig have already done?

 

Maybe, just maybe, MAC could reinvest itself and sell stripped 'new' birds for no more than 150 grand, and find new life, while at the same time keeping reasonably priced spare parts production flowing. :wub:

 

  • Like 1
Posted

ISTM Fantom makes an important point. We're in no danger of running out of shops to install avionics, paint and interiors. Even engines. Unless someone builds some new ones sometime, we will run out of sound airframes even if personal aviation continues to wane.

Posted

A slightly different twist and unique approach would be to rebuild those Mooney's potentially lost to salvage after an accident. IF the factory could take them in and do a complete rebuild/refurbish on wrecked aircraft that would really help maintain the fleet.

Posted

Forgot to mention.....the barebones J will have buyer selected prop options, and a least one engine option, a turbo normalizer :) 

Posted

 

Excellent report Bennett, and I'm sooooo glad someone from CA realizes that profit isn't a bad word. ;)

 

I'd like to believe potential Mooney investors have looked at all these scenarios, and I'm fairly certain they have. I have an Industrial Engineering degree, and a Production Engineering PE licence. As such, I was very interested in the factory manufacturing of my new J back in late '93 and early '94. About 4,300 production hours. Given overhead, avionics, interior, lousy paint job, engine and other equipment costs, management expense, sales commissions, debt retirement and whatever else....I was amazed they could even break even at a bit over 200 grand, and in fact, they didn't. I'm glad to hear they have reduced those production hours significantly.

 

Let's face facts, new Mooney production, they way it used to be, will not happen, buying up old J's for 50 grand (if they could be found) redoing them and marketing them for under 200 grand isn't realistic. For MAC to be resurrected something dramatically different needs to occur, and I won't even get into the economic, regulatory and political disincentives and roadblocks keeping that from happening...

 

...Maybe, just maybe, MAC could reinvest itself and sell stripped 'new' birds for no more than 150 grand, and find new life, while at the same time keeping reasonably priced spare parts production flowing. :wub:

 

 

 

Unusual post this one is. Starts off well grounded and analytical and ends up in fantasy land. :blink: For a guy who seems to like the idea that a company should make a profit, I have to wonder, where is the profit in the $150,000 stripper? (You know what I mean. Please no jokes about girls otherwise we end up with another GG thread. :rolleyes: ) I'm not sure how Mooney is supposed to get from $600,000 down to $150,000. To my knowledge, there isn't a certified, four passenger airplane available anywhere in the world for just $150,000.

 

There is a big disconnect between what we'd like to see and what's possible.

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