1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, BravoWhiskey said: Cirrus sales and marketing found a way to tap into a few different markets. .... But something I am noticing is the number of used Cirrus on Controller. Seems to me to be a lot of inventory. I don’t know if that means their owners a less attached to the brand or if they have a lease or buyback program. In 24 years they have sold about 9,000 SEP planes. That averages 375/year. Last year they sold 539 SEP - they are growing and accelerating. People here have reported that Cirrus has a large order backlog - more than a year or two. There are 248 Cirrus SEP for sale on Controller (less than Piper SEP or Cessna SEP BTW) - that isn't even 3% of the Cirrus fleet. It doesn't seem excessive. Edited February 26, 2023 by 1980Mooney Quote
exM20K Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, 1980Mooney said: Good point. Cirrus, along with Diamond, Piper and Cessna, have proven that you don't need retractable gear to train professional pilots. Apparently, they want fixed gear - less cost, less weight, more robust and less insurance. Everyone talks about Mooney needing to "do something different" than they are currently yet most lose their mind at the suggestion of any change. Diamond worked on a landing gear simulator for the DA40: a gear lever, drag device, and warning lights. This never went anywhere, and I don’t recall it ever being installed on a flying plane. It appears that the pro-pilot training world is content with either maintaining a couple of ratty arrows or Cessna RG aircraft, or they go straight to multi commercial in a Seminole or DA42 Private SEL -> MEL -> CMEL -> CSEL add on is how I did it, and that was a pretty efficient way to get the ratings. The CSEL add on was relatively trivial after the CMEL. -dan 2 Quote
A64Pilot Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, exM20K said: Diamond worked on a landing gear simulator for the DA40: a gear lever, drag device, and warning lights. This never went anywhere, and I don’t recall it ever being installed on a flying plane. It appears that the pro-pilot training world is content with either maintaining a couple of ratty arrows or Cessna RG aircraft, or they go straight to multi commercial in a Seminole or DA42 Private SEL -> MEL -> CMEL -> CSEL add on is how I did it, and that was a pretty efficient way to get the ratings. The CSEL add on was relatively trivial after the CMEL. -dan It’s purely a finances thing, a couple of ratty Arrows, 172’s whatever is orders of magnitude cheaper than a couple of new Cirrus. However some have the $$$ to pay significantly more to fly the new Cirrus, so there are some Cirrus trainers, but the majority of people trying to get into Commercial flying as a living do so on a shoestring, so hence the ratty 172’s or Arrow’s etc. I went through a part 141 school and changed a few things, I was never a Private pilot, didn’t see the point, first checkride was Commercial in a M20AT. The syllabus was 152’s, then Cherokee’s for instruments and the then new M20AT’s for Commercial. I disliked the Cherokee’s and paid extra to just fly the Mooney’s after the 152’s. State school, in Tx, so of course Mooney’s. Quote
BravoWhiskey Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, 1980Mooney said: There are 248 Cirrus SEP for sale on Controller (less than Piper SEP or Cessna SEP BTW) - that isn't even 3% of the Cirrus fleet. It doesn't seem excessive Understood but I was primarily comparing this to Mooney. If I was doing a true business comparison I would narrow this down to 4 seaters. There are a number of 6 seaters for both Cessna and Piper on there. But even that might be pointless. I could start adding a bunch of categories and then you realize each brand stands alone in their own way. Quote
EricJ Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 44 minutes ago, exM20K said: Diamond worked on a landing gear simulator for the DA40: a gear lever, drag device, and warning lights. This never went anywhere, and I don’t recall it ever being installed on a flying plane. It appears that the pro-pilot training world is content with either maintaining a couple of ratty arrows or Cessna RG aircraft, or they go straight to multi commercial in a Seminole or DA42 Private SEL -> MEL -> CMEL -> CSEL add on is how I did it, and that was a pretty efficient way to get the ratings. The CSEL add on was relatively trivial after the CMEL. -dan From what I see around here with the major flying schools I think you have the path correct. C172s or Archers or Pilot 100s until they graduate into a Seminole for complex/multi. That's a lot to throw at somebody at once; complex and multi at the same time, but they seem to get through it. The Oxford (CAE) school here used to use Diamond DA40s and DA42s, but they seem to have moved back to Archers and Seminoles. The United/Lufthansa school at Goodyear uses Cirrus now and used to have some Grobs, too, but I haven't seen any of the Grobs for a while. If they don't have the Grobs I don't know what they use for complex/Multi if they do anything at all. 1 Quote
FloridaMan Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 What's the current status of Mooney. Did somebody buy it? Quote
Brandt Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, FloridaMan said: What's the current status of Mooney. Did somebody buy it? No new owners. Factory Service Center open. Parts being made. Quote
glbtrottr Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 Not a peep from the factory. Huh. I made many friends there over the years - some have passed. I can’t believe China was such a substantial investor in it. That’s unsavory but unsurprising. First the French then the Aussies now the Chinese - no American love for Keerville?Without appreciable changes motivating and helping the long term employees I don’t see a reason for them to change. Start at the same time, leave exactly on the clock, take every break, sneak a few extra minutes from break when able, wait for news about another buyer/investor / CEO, rinse and repeat. Things at Kerrville don’t change fast…They were out marketed and outpaced by Cirrus and were trying to compete for the same demographic rather than finding new avenues for revenue. Not a lot of willing change and innovation there… I own two mooneys so this makes me sad Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Quote
Mcstealth Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, A64Pilot said: Waco, TSTI? Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, FloridaMan said: What's the current status of Mooney. Did somebody buy it? The ownership is a bit of a mystery. On 1 September 2020, Jonny Pollack announced to several aviation publications that 80% of the company was taken over by a new ownership group under US Financial, LLC. Apparently Meijing Group still owns 20%. Little is known about US Financial, based in Wyoming. I would assume that Meijing converted much of their reported $200 mil. investment into debt which they hold over the owners. It is understandable why they have no cash and are unable to build inventory. I am surprised that no-one had pressed Jonny at MooneyMax regarding the 20% and Meijing. Based upon the “Legendary Aircraft Business For Sale” PowerPoint that we saw floated in Oct. 2021, (BizQuest - which failed) I suspect that US Financial invested no money in Mooney and their plan was to flip the company getting both them and Meijing out. “A consortium of pilots and owners has taken over Mooney International after taking an 80% stake in the company formerly owned and controlled by Chinese interests.” https://www.australianflying.com.au/latest/pilots-and-owners-buy-out-mooney-international https://saflyer.com/mooney-changes-ownership/amp/ https://opencorporates.com/companies/us_wy/2020-000916521 Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, glbtrottr said: Not a peep from the factory. Huh. I made many friends there over the years - some have passed. I can’t believe China was such a substantial investor in it. That’s unsavory but unsurprising. First the French then the Aussies now the Chinese - no American love for Keerville? Without appreciable changes motivating and helping the long term employees I don’t see a reason for them to change. Start at the same time, leave exactly on the clock, take every break, sneak a few extra minutes from break when able, wait for news about another buyer/investor / CEO, rinse and repeat. Things at Kerrville don’t change fast… They were out marketed and outpaced by Cirrus and were trying to compete for the same demographic rather than finding new avenues for revenue. Not a lot of willing change and innovation there… I own two mooneys so this makes me sad Don Maxwell has been reported to be part of the U.S. Financial ownership group. Perhaps someone should ask him - about the other 20% owner, presumably Meijing, and the status of all the announced plans to redesign landing gear, increase MGW, and upgrade the G1000 among other things. Quote
glbtrottr Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 Wait - the articles are 2-3 years old. Johnny was quoted as focusing on making efforts to rebuild the trust from the owner community. US financial is delinquent as of 21, right? If only we could be a fly on the wall, but earning trust is difficult to do in silence …Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Quote
aviatoreb Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 We've just been through such an epic upturn in aircraft sales these last 3 years, including piston. Fuelded by the covid boom. And likely now it is the tail end of that as the economy slows. It was so sad that Mooney closed production at the front side of that and has missed the entire thing. I fear this time the factory is down for the count. I echo gbltrottr - being a Mooney owner and lover, this makes me sad. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, glbtrottr said: Wait - the articles are 2-3 years old. Johnny was quoted as focusing on making efforts to rebuild the trust from the owner community. US financial is delinquent as of 21, right? If only we could be a fly on the wall, but earning trust is difficult to do in silence … I would say that the trust was effectively gone in October 2021 when it became known that behind the scenes and “trust talk” they had been peddling the company for sale again. It showed up on BizQuest, the business broker of last chance – the craigslist of business brokers. https://flyer.co.uk/mooney-aircraft-company-up-for-sale/ Quote
Pinecone Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 21 hours ago, A64Pilot said: Average Joe can’t afford to fly, and the majority of those that can, have enough money to be chauffeured around in Luxury. They don’t fly, they have people for that. Since the 70’s the actual purchasing power of the average Joe has been decreasing. I believe it’s called wage stagnation, but in the 70’s everyone bought boats, campers and airplanes etc. no more, from the end of WWII every year for the average person they had more wealth than the year before, that trend reversed about 1980. Hmm, my local flight school is adding a plane and instructors to keep with the number of students. Doesn't sound like no one can afford to fly. And in the late 70s through the early 90s, there was 1 - 2 planes and 1 - 2 instructors. One of the really big things that killed GA aircraft sales was the removal of the Investment Tax Credit. That was a 10% tax CREDIT on a business purchase. So buy $100,000 airplane, get a tax CREDIT of $10,000. Also changes in Sub S corp rules that meant there had to be the possibility of a profit and showing a profit every so many years. Quote
Pinecone Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 A few things. 1) If there are no small piston aircraft, where are the pilots for all those turbine aircraft coming from? Other than military trained, every pilot of a PC-12, Lear, Gulfstream, A320, 777 started in light piston singles. 2) I saw a post on BT that there are 22 MILLION millionaires in the US. That is a pretty large market. 3) As I mentioned in another post, my local FBO has 3x 172 and about 5 instructors and is adding another 172. They built 3 rows of brand new T-hangars about 3 years ago, and are about to break ground for another row, and designed the layout to add 2 more after that. 4) BMW started the high end delivery model over 20 years ago. Making it special, reinforcing that you are buying a high end vehicle. Quote
Fly Boomer Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Pinecone said: 2) I saw a post on BT that there are 22 MILLION millionaires in the US. That is a pretty large market. I just read that 70-something percent of those millionaires got it the old-fashioned way (NOT from Daddy). 1 Quote
donkaye Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Pinecone said: 2) I saw a post on BT that there are 22 MILLION millionaires in the US. That is a pretty large market. In California nearly everyone who owns a house is a millionaire. So most of that number comes from California and the money is stuck in a house. 3 Quote
A64Pilot Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Mcstealth said: Waco, TSTI? Took me awhile to figure that out, but if your asking which school, it was Central Texas College in Killeen, I was in 6th Cav Stationed at Ft Hood. 1 Quote
Pinecone Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, donkaye said: In California everyone who owns a house is a millionaire. So most of that number comes from California and the money is stuck in a house. Not saying it was liquid. But a house and nearing retirement with a 401, a million is not that much. Quote
Schllc Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Pinecone said: 2) I saw a post on BT that there are 22 MILLION millionaires in the US. That is a pretty large market. This is your target market. If you only had 10% of that interested in aviation, you couldn’t make enough planes to satisfy even 1% of that 10%. That would be 22,000 people…. That’s about the amount of planes Mooney has built in total over 70 years! Quote
haymak3r Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 21 hours ago, A64Pilot said: Look at all the markets, boat show in Fl was just a week or so ago, news reported that boats under 26 feet weren't selling, but multi million dollar yachts were sold out years in advance. Gulfstream has for years been sold out way in advance. Cessna is very profitable, building “biz” jets, Beech is profitable, building jets as is pretty much every jet manufacturer. Cirrus is an anomaly, most Cirrus buyers aren’t pilots that have been flying for a very long time, they figured out how to tap into a market no one else did, or just as likely they created a market, but it’s actually a tiny market Average Joe can’t afford to fly, and the majority of those that can, have enough money to be chauffeured around in Luxury. They don’t fly, they have people for that. Since the 70’s the actual purchasing power of the average Joe has been decreasing. I believe it’s called wage stagnation, but in the 70’s everyone bought boats, campers and airplanes etc. no more, from the end of WWII every year for the average person they had more wealth than the year before, that trend reversed about 1980. Now only the top percent or two can, and they aren’t buying single engine pistons. Sure Cirrus is selling, but their numbers are a joke compared to the industry 40 or 50 years ago. So the only way is to make airplanes cheaper, LSA’s and Experimental some few average Joe’s can afford, but even them are out of the reach of most. That leaves us, a few that fly what most wouldn’t back in the day, antique, many would consider junk out dated aircraft. ‘Not to be ugly, but who drives a 40 yr old pickup with worn paint and interior with an AM radio, no AC, power steering etc? That’s what most of our aircraft are, 40+ yr old relics. because if your like me, you don’t have seven figures for a new airplane. Are you calling me a relic??? 1 Quote
A64Pilot Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, Pinecone said: A few things. 1) If there are no small piston aircraft, where are the pilots for all those turbine aircraft coming from? Other than military trained, every pilot of a PC-12, Lear, Gulfstream, A320, 777 started in light piston singles. 2) I saw a post on BT that there are 22 MILLION millionaires in the US. That is a pretty large market. 3) As I mentioned in another post, my local FBO has 3x 172 and about 5 instructors and is adding another 172. They built 3 rows of brand new T-hangars about 3 years ago, and are about to break ground for another row, and designed the layout to add 2 more after that. 4) BMW started the high end delivery model over 20 years ago. Making it special, reinforcing that you are buying a high end vehicle. A few things. As someone else stated there was a post covid boom, that will return to normal after the economy slows. That’s my belief too, the economy slowing Many being trained are hoping for that Airline job, not their own private airplane, and only a very few are expecting to buy new, vast majority are salivating over a 50 yr old C-172 or maybe an old Mooney etc. of the few who are being trained to be a private pilot. Finally, I did NOT say no one could afford to fly, what I said was the working stiff can no longer afford to fly, back in the 60’s and 70’s most of the Physicians in my town had new airplanes and the successful local plumber, electrician, small business owner etc had a 5 yr old used airplane, very, very few had “old” as in greater than 10 yr old airplanes. Every weekend there were several people out flying and on a nice day you had to wait in line for the wash rack. There were two FBO’s and follow me trucks met every incoming airplane vying for their business. None of that is true today, but the town had at least twice the population. There are literally millions that can afford to fly, visit any South Fl Marina and walk down the rows of more than Million dollar Sportfishermen etc by the hundreds, each one burns way more fuel than an airplane and slip rent is more than hangar rent etc. But they aren’t the common man either. Face it, the gap between the Wealthy and the rest of the population is quite large, much larger than in times past. But flying is hard, many sweaty hours in tiny airplanes that you barely can fit into, being bounced around, and in a year or so you can be turned loose on your own, in a tiny, sweaty little box, where the Sportfisherman you buy it today and are on the water tomorrow, with two young things on your arms, no sweating and “Captains” to drive it are readily available if one of the young things needs attention down below. The people who can afford it, are in the most part not interested anymore. They buy shares in Netjets instead. What it costs to buy and insure and maintain a 1.3 Million dollar Cirrus, I bet you can go with Netjets instead. Quote
Pinecone Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, A64Pilot said: Finally, I did NOT say no one could afford to fly, what I said was the working stiff can no longer afford to fly, back in the 60’s and 70’s most of the Physicians in my town had new airplanes and the successful local plumber, electrician, small business owner etc had a 5 yr old used airplane, very, very few had “old” as in greater than 10 yr old airplanes. Investment Tax Credit. They were leveraging that tax credit. Plus, what were 40 year old aircraft back then? Cubs, Taylor Crafts, the odd Beech Staggerwing. There just WEREN'T old airplanes. Quote
chriscalandro Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, glbtrottr said: Wait - the articles are 2-3 years old. Johnny was quoted as focusing on making efforts to rebuild the trust from the owner community. US financial is delinquent as of 21, right? If only we could be a fly on the wall, but earning trust is difficult to do in silence … Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk What’s mind blowing is that there are some here that believe this group has “an open line of communication from the factory” 1 Quote
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