Airplane ownership CV19

[Tony Starke]

7 hours ago, PT20J said:

It might be informative to understand how the coronavirus works: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/02/what-the-coronavirus-does-to-your-body-that-makes-it-so-deadly/

There are two important numbers for how serious a virus pandemic can be. The first is the mortality rate (the percentage of those infected that die). The mortality rate is difficult to pin down as it apparently varies depending on a Number of factors. But according to Johns Hopkins University the mortality rate in the hardest hit areas of the US exceeds 4%; in New York, it is 6.67%. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

The second important number is the reproduction number, R0, which is the number of additional persons infected by each infected person. The R0 was originally thought to be 2.2, but recent analysis from China indicates that it could be as high as 5.7. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Both of these numbers are much higher than for the flu to which COVID-19 is often compared. Seasonal flu mortality is about 0.1% and R0 is about 1.3 according to CDC calculations.

The best database for COVID-19 statistics is maintained by Johns Hopkins University https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

The Johns Hopkins data feeds the University of Washington IHME models used to predict deaths. This is the model that originally predicted >> 100K deaths in the US without social distancing. After social distancing was widely adopted by the states, the projection went down to as low as 61K deaths and is now about 68K. The projection  gets updated every few days as new data is available. Note that the projections assume that social distancing continues through May. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

At least one study of the 1918 Influenza epidemic by researchers at the Federal Reserve and MIT indicates that early and aggressive public health interventions may lead to reduced economic fallout. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

There are indications that rural states that have had low infection rates without social distancing may just be late to the party https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/republican-governors-stay-at-home-coronavirus/index.html

Immunity is not as simple as the headlines often portray it (we need a vaccine and effective treatments). https://www.wired.com/story/sorry-immunity-to-covid-19-wont-be-like-a-superpower/

Anyway you look at it, it's a disaster both economically and medically. A lot of folks are hurting.

Skip

 

I think, though I could be wrong, that many of us are frustrated due to conflicting reports. Most of the links here come from sources that are no longer credible to many Americans. When we have been subjected to blatant propaganda over and over, how are we supposed to take anything they print seriously. It is a sad state of affairs that the public cannot get reliable data and information because the media have an agenda. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Tony Starke

[Kmac]

And make no mistake...I am very proud to be an American and very proud of America's response.  There is no response that can make everyone happy or is fair to everyone.  No other country makes an attempt to be as transparent, forthcoming and provide as much data to the world as the USA.  

I also have a friend taking care of Covid positive patients is Massachusetts.   My business had N95 masks that we use when cutting fiberglass.   I offered them to him but he replied that his hospital has plenty of PPE.

Every person is going to have a different reaction to the federal and state responses.  I believe my governor has gone overboard.   On Sunday face masks are required to go out in public and all employers must take essential employees temperatures before starting work.  Our shelter in place order has been in affect for weeks now.  If no restrictions have been relaxed and the response has been working why add more restrictions?   I could understand adding those requirements after ending the shelter in place.

When all of this is over I look forward to beginning my search for another aircraft...

[chrisk]

17 hours ago, bonal said:

 

As for not setting a precedent well time will tell and please educate me if I'm wrong about the draft but didn't the US congress enact some kind of wartime legislation as per the constitution as opposed to state governments just forcing people to close their businesses with nothing more than some health official making a recommendation not even a debate within each states legislative body.

The 13th amendment states "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction."   One really should understand the civil war was the first time the draft was used in the US and there were significant riots in places like NYC.  And the 13th amendment was passed shortly after the civil war. Kind of makes you wonder why "involuntary servitude" was added in addition to slavery.  

Unsurprisingly courts have found the 13th amendment doesn't apply to the draft.  This does not mean the courts are correct.  When courts make such rulings, they are hardly impartial.  To me the language is plain and simple.  If someone has not been convicted of a crime, they can not be forced to provide labor against their will.   The draft clearly fits that category.  Of course with any such thing, there are limits.   For example a surgeon deciding to walk off the job in the middle of a surgery, which is substantively different than not starting a surgery.

As to the "orders" forcing businesses to close and social distancing.  The age old argument of necessity will be trotted out and wrapped in words like "compelling interest" and "necessary to save lives".  You can bet a good number of courts will uphold these orders, and let the next level sort it out later in time. --So, yes there is a real danger of setting a precedent.

[chrisk]

17 hours ago, bonal said:

Please don't misunderstand I am not trying to trivialize that this virus isn't hardcore all I'm saying is there are concerns beyond just health and illness to consider. I'm sure there are millions of people that have lost their ability to provide for themselves and their families and I can't count how many TV doctors and health officials that think of this as an "inconvenience"  that I have watched or read in the news.

This is a very valid discussion for society to have, and its been missing in public at least.  How about we look at the long term, say 25 years, and ask what is best for society.  Should we do nothing and let the virus burn through, or shut down society as we know it. 

Imagine if nothing was done and 5% of the population was lost in one year, consisting of mostly of . those with pre-existing conditions and the elderly. What would things look like in two or three years.    Sounds horrible, but understand we loose something like 1.2% of the population every year due to old age.  

Contrast this with the current scheme of shutting down businesses and forced social distancing.   This will certainly impact this years death rate.   But the economic impact will also have a long term increase on the death rate, as well as the quality of life.  It also impacts a much wider portion of the population.  Look at Argentina a few years back and the impact of their economic failure or Venezuela today.

I'm reasonably convinced either decision will have no appreciable impact in 25 years, but I also believe the riskier choice is shutting down the economy, as the impact to society is longer term. 

[Hank]

3 hours ago, Tony Starke said:

I think, though I could be wrong, that many of us are frustrated due to conflicting reports. Most of the links here come from sources that are no longer credible to many Americans. When we have been subjected to blatant propaganda over and over, how are we supposed to take anything they print seriously. It is a sad state of affairs that the public cannot get reliable data and information because the media have an agenda. 

In the 90s, CNN was a top tier news organization. Now, I ignore their existence. If they reported the sky was blue, I'd have to confirm it outside myself, with additional reports from people I know around the world.

Wired? Half decent articles on simple electronics, robotics, etc. Health? No. Real news??? No way! That's not even what they do. Right now, they're just jumping on the virus bandwagon to get more clicks and raise advertising rates.

And I'm concerned that in an interview, the NJ Governor was asked directly if his shutdowns, social distancing and other virus responses against society and the economy violated the 1st Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, and his response was, "that's above my pay grade." I'm afraid that's a common situation right now,  people in power making rules without regard for the legality of those rules.

We've all seen several parts of Amendment 1 violated: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble.

Churches have been closed. House parties, even among a few friends, banned. Those who proceed are raided, attacked, shut down and sometimes arrested. How so? State laws cannot conflict with Federal law. Oh, wait--all of these state-promulgated shutdowns, lists of businesses that cannot operate, masks and gloves that must be worn, and how many friends and neighbors can meet in someone's home aren't laws! So how are religious services being broken up, house parties raided, attendees of both arrested by police? This is very bothersome. And what happens next fall, when the flu ramps up again? Do we really just roll over and surrender our rights? Forget the thousands who fought and died to make sure those rights were codified into law? It's a slap in the face to every veteran, living and dead.

I'll get off my soapbox when the voices yelling the opposite do the same.

Let's all go fly our Mooneys. I have a letter in my car from Corporate Legal saying that I am free to go wherever I am going in pursuit of the essential business that my employer is engaged in. Just in case I'm stopped and the nice Badge & Gun asks to see my papers . . . . .   

Let's remember the words of Ben Franklin, who knew whereof he spoke:  "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." 

[aviatoreb]

30 minutes ago, chrisk said:

This is a very valid discussion for society to have, and its been missing in public at least.  How about we look at the long term, say 25 years, and ask what is best for society.  Should we do nothing and let the virus burn through, or shut down society as we know it. 

Imagine if nothing was done and 5% of the population was lost in one year, consisting of mostly of . those with pre-existing conditions and the elderly. What would things look like in two or three years.    Sounds horrible, but understand we loose something like 1.2% of the population every year due to old age.  

Contrast this with the current scheme of shutting down businesses and forced social distancing.   This will certainly impact this years death rate.   But the economic impact will also have a long term increase on the death rate, as well as the quality of life.  It also impacts a much wider portion of the population.  Look at Argentina a few years back and the impact of their economic failure or Venezuela today.

I'm reasonably convinced either decision will have no appreciable impact in 25 years, but I also believe the riskier choice is shutting down the economy, as the impact to society is longer term. 

Putting aside for a second the idea that 5% vs 1.2% of the usa population is a marginal difference of 13 million people may be a moral issue, but discussing it as just an economic topic.  The assertion you put forward is that no social distancing orders would then result in no economic impact.  I disagree.  Please consider then on a dollars more important than lives stance only, would loosing an extra 13 million people, suddenly, have no economic impact and no cost?  There would be no medical cost if we simply close the hospitals and we do not provide care to those dying souls, and instead let them die in the streets and in their homes, but I doubt we are saying that.  There would be a massive economic cost of providing care.  But harder to enumerate there would be a massive shock to the economy in loosing so many at once, so it seems to me.  Now turning back on my moral brain, for me, in the spirit of community, thinking, of my village of Potsdam, my county St Lawrence county, and my state, includes doing what it takes to protect my neighbors, and yes also my family, just as surely as it would be to run into a burning building to pull out an endangered neighbor (thankfully never needed to do that) or running into a crashed and smoking car to pull out a stranger (I have done that) risking life and limb, and comfort.  If people want to go out and protest, or have bbq's, a lot of these rules have little teeth in most places.  If a state wants to end its rules on social distancing, I bet business will still be dramatically down as many people will be unwilling to go to the theater and restaurants until this thing passes.  But then back to just economics, it could well be that it hangs on a lot longer if we do not collectively do the thing that most quickly crushes the pandemic, but instead some people social distance while others do not and it drags on and on, in a way that is worst for all, economically and in terms of public health.  The question for me is are we still a country than collectively do something together to the common good as we once were such a nation as proved during wwii and also the moon shot was a lovely example.  I do not know.

[Ross Taylor]

Speaking to the legal justification for doing these things...at least, here, in Arizona there's a code in the Arizona Revised Statutes that authorizes mayors and local jurisdictions to rule by "proclamation" if they declare an emergency.  I had to look it up, because I questioned the legal authority of our mayor to close us down.  I disagree with her timing and the scope of her actions...but they were/are lawful, according to the current laws here in Arizona.   Notice that the statute, below, gives these powers to the mayor if that same mayor declares an emergency.  Hmmm.

[David_H]

1 hour ago, Ross Taylor said:

Speaking to the legal justification for doing these things...at least, here, in Arizona there's a code in the Arizona Revised Statutes that authorizes mayors and local jurisdictions to rule by "proclamation" if they declare an emergency.  I had to look it up, because I questioned the legal authority of our mayor to close us down.  I disagree with her timing and the scope of her actions...but they were/are lawful, according to the current laws here in Arizona.   Notice that the statute, below, gives these powers to the mayor if that same mayor declares an emergency.  Hmmm.

It's difficult to understand how a local municipal ordinance or statute can somehow gain the required authority to supersede the US Constitution.

There are still people within the United States that believe that authority cannot be created by a decree (legislative or individual)... it must be derived from a source.

[aviatoreb]

27 minutes ago, David_H said:

It's difficult to understand how a local municipal ordinance or statute can somehow gain the required authority to supersede the US Constitution.

There are still people within the United States that believe that authority cannot be created by a decree (legislative or individual)... it must be derived from a source.

It can't.  The question is not can local authorities superset the constitution.  The question is what if any conditions exist where a local authority can assert an authority.  If a building is burning down, and my apartment is in there, and I want to fetch my children's photos, can the fire marshal forbid me from going in while the building is on fire and the fire department is working?  If a block is on fire can the Mayor close the block during that period?  What emergencies are emergencies and who gets to decide?

[Tony Starke]

Here's a story that claims 874,000 people died of poverty in 2011. 

https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/Poverty-Kills-More-People-than-either-cancer-or-heart-disease

In 2011 the US poverty rate was 15%. So, 15% of 311.6 million (2011 population) people is 46.74 million people living in poverty. 874,000 people died due to poverty according to the story so .019% of impoverished people died in 2011 due to poverty.

In 2019 the US poverty rate was 11.8%.So, 11.8% of 328.2 million (2019 population) people is 38.73 million people living in poverty. Using the .019% figure, that means 736,000 lives lost in 2019 due to poverty.  

That means 138,000 lives were saved by the improved economy from 2011 to 2019. 

Now, with our higher population if we went back to a 15% poverty rate we would have 49.23 million people living in poverty and using that .019% statistic, we would be looking at nearly 1 million dying due to poverty. 1 million dead in a bad economy minus the 736,000 dying in a good economy leaves 264,000 additional dead by shutting down the economy (if we go to a 15% poverty rate).

To date there have been 38,371 Covid19 deaths recorded in the U.S.  (most likely an inflated number). So 264,000 minus 38,371 leaves 225,629 more deaths due to poverty that the Wuhan virus. Now there will certainly be more deaths due to the Chinese virus, but will there be 225,000 more? So in the end was it worth it? Time will tell but the numbers will be manipulated so we may never know.
 

 

 

 

 

[bonal]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

It can't.  The question is not can local authorities superset the constitution.  The question is what if any conditions exist where a local authority can assert an authority.  If a building is burning down, and my apartment is in there, and I want to fetch my children's photos, can the fire marshal forbid me from going in while the building is on fire and the fire department is working?  If a block is on fire can the Mayor close the block during that period?  What emergencies are emergencies and who gets to decide?

Interesting comparison with the burning building example and I hope not a real comparison to our whole country. But here is an example of a reverse scenario. Unfortunately out west we experience major wildfires as you all know and as a result the various government agencies require mandatory evacuations when a fire breaks out and even when there are emergency declarations made by the state they cannot force us to flee our property. If you do leave they can prevent you from returning but they can't force you to evacuate. Now I'm hoping this shelter in place business doesn't extend into the fire season because it's going to be interesting if a major fire breaks out and we have to shelter in place while we are being told to evacuate in mass.

Edited April 18, 2020 by bonal

[chrisk]

5 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

But then back to just economics, it could well be that it hangs on a lot longer if we do not collectively do the thing that most quickly crushes the pandemic, but instead some people social distance while others do not and it drags on and on, in a way that is worst for all, economically and in terms of public health.  The question for me is are we still a country than collectively do something together to the common good as we once were such a nation as proved during wwii and also the moon shot was a lovely example.  I do not know.

Absent a cure or vaccine, how do we think this thing ends?  Basically enough of the population gains immunity by catching COVID-19, so that the number of cases doesn't grow.   Flattening the curve makes that take longer, and only makes sense because it reduces the load on hospitals.   I don't think it changes the percentage of folks who get COVID-19.  It just changes the number of folks who could have been saved by the medical system, but weren't due to over capacity.  I don't have the data to estimate that number, but assuming that' it is the set that makes it to ICU, its not huge.   And its fair to ask if the societal cost is worth the lives saved.  --And yes it is a moral issue, and one our country has long lived with.  For example, the decision to install a guardrail on a highway is evaluated based on the cost to install  vs the estimated lives saved (or conversely lost).  A component of the FAA issuing an AD is the fleet cost vs the safety benefit. 

It will be interesting to see the impact on places that didn't enforce social distancing vs those that did.  In particular, it will be interesting to see how Mexico fairs.

[Andy95W]

3 hours ago, David_H said:

It's difficult to understand how a local municipal ordinance or statute can somehow gain the required authority to supersede the US Constitution.

 

Article [X] (Amendment 10 - Reserved Powers)

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

[aviatoreb]

25 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

Article [X] (Amendment 10 - Reserved Powers)

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html

[aviatoreb]

36 minutes ago, chrisk said:

Absent a cure or vaccine, how do we think this thing ends?  Basically enough of the population gains immunity by catching COVID-19, so that the number of cases doesn't grow.   Flattening the curve makes that take longer, and only makes sense because it reduces the load on hospitals.   I don't think it changes the percentage of folks who get COVID-19.  It just changes the number of folks who could have been saved by the medical system, but weren't due to over capacity.  I don't have the data to estimate that number, but assuming that' it is the set that makes it to ICU, its not huge.   And its fair to ask if the societal cost is worth the lives saved.  --And yes it is a moral issue, and one our country has long lived with.  For example, the decision to install a guardrail on a highway is evaluated based on the cost to install  vs the estimated lives saved (or conversely lost).  A component of the FAA issuing an AD is the fleet cost vs the safety benefit. 

It will be interesting to see the impact on places that didn't enforce social distancing vs those that did.  In particular, it will be interesting to see how Mexico fairs.

We hope we gain immunity once caught.  That is up to the virus and not up to the desires of mortals.  Some disease once caught confer immunity for life.  Some for just a while.  And some not at all.  Sure would be a bummer to catch it, survive, and then catch it again and then die.

We disagree with, "I don't think it changes the percentage of folks who get COVID-19. "  It could be that either by delaying the infection until the vaccine, or a cure, or otherwise one of many creative strategies once it has been beat back, it could be that small fractions catch it.  Ebola could have (and could still) infected large fractions of the world if it had not been cornered before it escaped.  Also, the fraction of people who catch it who die could vary dramatically based on whether there is a healthcare system there to catch them.

I have read all sorts of interesting ways of running the distancing thing once it has been beat down to micro-numbers.  The most interesting I see is creative work weeks, like 4 or 5 days in a row of maybe 80 or 100 hours, then to isolation for 2 weeks, alternating through 3 or 4 crews.  This breaks transmission paths while people are still going to work. But this is undesirable and not a permanent solution.

We need a vaccine or a cure to go back to pre-cv-19 world.

Some people say, opening up now the beaches in Florida while they are at peak, is like saying hey my parachute slowed me down so I'm going to take it off now.

[aviatoreb]

2 hours ago, bonal said:

Interesting comparison with the burning building example and I hope not a real comparison to our whole country. But here is an example of a reverse scenario. Unfortunately out west we experience major wildfires as you all know and as a result the various government agencies require mandatory evacuations when a fire breaks out and even when there are emergency declarations made by the state they cannot force us to flee our property. If you do leave they can prevent you from returning but they can't force you to evacuate. Now I'm hoping this shelter in place business doesn't extend into the fire season because it's going to be interesting if a major fire breaks out and we have to shelter in place while we are being told to evacuate in mass.

For sure, western fires are a great example too, but I was talking building fires.  If I understand right though, even in western fires we do not retain unrestricted rights to go where and when we want and to do what we want.  I know if rights to stay in your home during a fire has been tested.  But if you are a way when the fire breaks out and the road is blocked, i don't think we retain the right to return.  Or businesses in towns on fire have the right to stay open, seat people at restaurants, and serve them.  That is a lot like what is going on now.  But clearly on a much greater scale.

[David_H]

This whole debacle would be similar to an AD being issued for one aircraft model of the M20 line and then watching a local Mayor or state Governor ground all GA airplanes (that werent deemed "necessary") in their city, county, town, or state... for everyone's "safety."

The Wuhan CV forecast models that were used to make the current economic decisions have been shown to be mathematically incorrect. The data being published isn't even reliable.

It's extremely difficult to understand how a professional scientist or mathematician could mix up or confuse exponential growth and linear growth.

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, David_H said:

This whole debacle would be similar to an AD being issued for one aircraft model of the M20 line and then watching a local Mayor or state Governor ground all GA airplanes (that werent deemed "necessary") in their city, county, town, or state... for everyone's "safety."

It would be just like that, except only in a world where airplanes like a Bonanza could catch a problem like a wing corrosion issue simply by being tied down next to a Mooney, and the issue would spread passing it on from one airplane to two of its neighbor airplanes, doubling every 3 to 7 days the number of effected airplanes, it would be just like that.

1 hour ago, David_H said:

The Wuhan CV forecast models that were used to make the current economic decisions have been shown to be mathematically incorrect. The data being published isn't even reliable.It's extremely difficult to understand how a professional scientist or mathematician could mix up or confuse exponential growth and linear growth. 

Actually, I am a professional mathematician.  I would be greatly indebted if you could explain exponents to me and distinguish exactly what is linear growth from what is exponential growth. And how diseases actually grow linearly and not exponentially, and how we got from 150 dead in the usa by cv19 one month ago on March 18 to so far today 39,011 dead today with linear growth.  301 on March 21, 781 by March 24, 1697 by March 27, 3150 by March 30, and so on.  Please start by defining the phrase linear growth and then the phrase exponential growth, and then fit your model and describe calculations to fit coefficients from data.  I will be very pleased if it is linear since that would be much better for tens of thousands of our citizens who are next up on the curve.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, David_H said:

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by aviatoreb

[Ross Taylor]

One guy who I really like, because he seems completely data driven and free of agenda, is John Ioannidis of the Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine.  He was one of the researchers that authored a recent paper, available here:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

My short summary of this (with no expertise) is that the researchers did an admirable job of noting and correcting for possible confounding variables...and the end finding is that the infection rate of the coronavirus is much higher than assumed, which means the mortality rate is much lower than assumed...and in an interview he put it on par with influenza.

[aviatoreb]

24 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

One guy who I really like, because he seems completely data driven and free of agenda, is John Ioannidis of the Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine.  He was one of the researchers that authored a recent paper, available here:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

My short summary of this (with no expertise) is that the researchers did an admirable job of noting and correcting for possible confounding variables...and the end finding is that the infection rate of the coronavirus is much higher than assumed, which means the mortality rate is much lower than assumed...and in an interview he put it on par with influenza.

He seems to have done a legit study.  But one thing about scientists, is even when in consensus, we are humans and we bring preconceptions, and there are always a few scientists who will pose the opposite point of view.   So in my opinion, it is important to like a scientists work because we like his/her methods, rather than because we like his her results.  Since otherwise, we can always pre-choose our result and then go find a scientist who will agree with our result we want, no matter what it might be, and there will always be someone out there who has a study which agrees with that result.  High tech yes men.  Professor Ioannidis' study looks like a proper study (I had not read it this fast, I had already run across it too),  But like all our early studies it also has assumptions.  The main take away I have so far is that we have no idea how deadly this thing is.  I see reports ranging from 0.1% mortality to 10% mortality (in Italy) and 6% mortality in New York City.  I hope it it 0.1%.  I am having a hard time resolving the, its just like the common flu story, against the lines of refrigerator trucks for corpses in NYC, and mass graves in Heart Island.

Or this

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html

In New City on April 6-12 it was not only the leading cause of death at 3,850, vs second and third place (a year ago historically), heart disease and cancer, 337 and 244, but by a lot.  Something is not matching.

There is a study just started in South Korea that I am very interested to see how it comes out - and I forgot the numbers but they are going out and testing a randomized sample of members of the population at large.

Edited April 19, 2020 by aviatoreb

[David_H]

32 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Actually, I am a professional mathematician.  I would be greatly indebted if you could explain exponents to me and distinguish exactly what is linear growth from what is exponential growth.

Why make those comments? Your a Mathematician... show me the modelling equations that accurately predicted the results we now have?

The initial prediction modeling results paraded about in the media does not match the current observed data available now. A graphical overlay of the predictions to the current data wouldn't even fit within the massive errors bars they left themselves.

Post any prediction model that shows how the current data fit curves agree with ANY of the prediction models (the actual Mathematical modeling equation(s)).

[aviatoreb]

46 minutes ago, David_H said:

Why make those comments? Your a Mathematician... show me the modelling equations that accurately predicted the results we now have?

You said, "It's extremely difficult to understand how a professional scientist or mathematician could mix up or confuse exponential growth and linear growth."  That suggests you know something about what an exponent is and what linear is and the scientists do not. How can a scientist show you the difference if they do not even know what the difference is and how to tell the difference.  So please do explain what these each are and how to tell them apart so that the public and the scientists alike can understand better what you say they do not understand.  It will be a real service to us all if you will tell us and please offer details.  It would be even more useful if you can state explicitly examples where the scientists do not know what exponential growth is and what linear growth is, since that would be helpful to correct these errors immediately.

Edited April 19, 2020 by aviatoreb

[jonhop]

21 hours ago, PT20J said:

It might be informative to understand how the coronavirus works: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/02/what-the-coronavirus-does-to-your-body-that-makes-it-so-deadly/

There are two important numbers for how serious a virus pandemic can be. The first is the mortality rate (the percentage of those infected that die). The mortality rate is difficult to pin down as it apparently varies depending on a Number of factors. But according to Johns Hopkins University the mortality rate in the hardest hit areas of the US exceeds 4%; in New York, it is 6.67%. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

The second important number is the reproduction number, R0, which is the number of additional persons infected by each infected person. The R0 was originally thought to be 2.2, but recent analysis from China indicates that it could be as high as 5.7. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Both of these numbers are much higher than for the flu to which COVID-19 is often compared. Seasonal flu mortality is about 0.1% and R0 is about 1.3 according to CDC calculations.

The best database for COVID-19 statistics is maintained by Johns Hopkins University https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

The Johns Hopkins data feeds the University of Washington IHME models used to predict deaths. This is the model that originally predicted >> 100K deaths in the US without social distancing. After social distancing was widely adopted by the states, the projection went down to as low as 61K deaths and is now about 68K. The projection  gets updated every few days as new data is available. Note that the projections assume that social distancing continues through May. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

At least one study of the 1918 Influenza epidemic by researchers at the Federal Reserve and MIT indicates that early and aggressive public health interventions may lead to reduced economic fallout. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

There are indications that rural states that have had low infection rates without social distancing may just be late to the party https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/republican-governors-stay-at-home-coronavirus/index.html

Immunity is not as simple as the headlines often portray it (we need a vaccine and effective treatments). https://www.wired.com/story/sorry-immunity-to-covid-19-wont-be-like-a-superpower/

Anyway you look at it, it's a disaster both economically and medically. A lot of folks are hurting.

Skip

 

14 hours ago, Tony Starke said:

I think, though I could be wrong, that many of us are frustrated due to conflicting reports. Most of the links here come from sources that are no longer credible to many Americans. When we have been subjected to blatant propaganda over and over, how are we supposed to take anything they print seriously. It is a sad state of affairs that the public cannot get reliable data and information because the media have an agenda. 

Hmm. Some of @PT20J's sources are media but most aren't. Leaving out CNN and Wired as media sources, why are you discounting other sources of information?

Snopes -   When misinformation obscures the truth and readers don’t know what to trust, Snopes.com’s fact checking and original, investigative reporting lights the way to evidence-based and contextualized analysis. We always document our sources so readers are empowered to do independent research and make up their own minds. https://www.snopes.com/about-snopes/

Johns Hopkins University - “The encouragement of research . . . and the advancement of individual scholars, who by their excellence will advance the sciences they pursue, and the society where they dwell.” - https://www.jhu.edu/about/

Center for Disease Control - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) serves as the national focus for developing and applying disease prevention and control, environmental health, and health promotion and health education activities designed to improve the health of the people of the United States. https://www.cdc.gov/about/organization/cio-orgcharts/pdfs/CDCfs-508.pdf

SSRN Journal - is devoted to the rapid worldwide dissemination of research and is composed of a number of specialized research networks. https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/

The data is out there, one just has to look for it. 

 

[bonal]

Well reading all this has only deepened my mood other than that very nice trumpet piece. People say we can never go back to normal life until we have a cure and if I'm not mistaken aren't cold viruses essentially corona type virus. If so I guess we are truly fu...d because last time I checked there still is no cure for the common cold.  Annual flu vaccines are based on predicted outcomes and are not always effective. I guess we will just have to learn to live in a police state and all get mandatory inoculations and carry our papers and wear masks. I guess bank robbers will be happy at least. Can you give me a description of the suspect, well officer he was wearing a mask like all the other customers that day...

Edited April 19, 2020 by bonal

[MooneyMitch]

10 minutes ago, bonal said:

Well listening to this has only deepened my mood other than that very nice trumpet piece. People say we can never go back to normal life until we have a cure and if I'm not mistaken aren't cold viruses essentially corona type virus. If so I guess we are truly fu...d because last time I checked there still is no cure for the common cold.  Annual flu vaccines are based on predicted outcomes and are not always effective. I guess we will just have to learn to live in a police state and all get mandatory inoculations and carry our papers and wear masks. I guess bank robbers will be happy at least. Can you give me a description of the suspect, well officer he was wearing a mask like all the other customers that day...

I most glad you enjoy the music offering. The music was composed and performed out of love for the front line workers around the world.  Play it again, anytime.........it is beauty!

We are all in uncharted territory..........we will beat this..........please continue to have hope!