Realistic buying expectations

[Firebird2xc]

Okay, all.  Been Mooney shopping and it's not been all roses.  The frog to prince ratio seems absurdly high, especially at lower price points.  Cost doesn't always equal quality, though, especially when sellers are biased about their airplane, and buyers are too tight-fisted with their AMUs...

Vref seems to be either inaccurate or ignored.  Maybe both.  Maybe it just doesn't reflect the market currently.

Apparently there are also a lot of 'givens' and unspoken conditions that come with various price points and equipment conditions...

That's a lot of potential heartache for a buyer or seller.  

Given all that- what do I *really* need to know about buying an older but properly maintained Mooney?

 

I am specifically looking for information on 201s, 205s, 231s, and 252s.   What's a realistic price range (as current actual owners see it) for those types?  What kind of issues and follow on costs should I realistically expect?

This should help me determine if my expectations per dollar are just too high or if I need to find a way to supplement my budget, if that's even feasible, etc...

I thank you all in advance.

[mike_elliott]

The answer to your broad question is "it depends" I think this is about the 5th or 6th time I have mentioned to prebuy the owner with as much diligence as you would perform on a plane prebuy, as it will tell a lot about what you can expect in regards to pro active maintenance, care, etc.

6 minutes ago, Firebird2xc said:

The frog to prince ratio seems absurdly high, especially at lower price points

Not absurdly high because lower prices are caused by frogs. Unfortunately, people want princes at frog prices, and unless you find a seller willing to say "Ok, have your way with me, I want out", you probably wont find a prince for frog pricing. You might be better served to get with a reputable reseller like All American who look at you as a customer for life vs. a one and done. Sure, you will pay them a commission in the form of a price, but they will work for you as hard as they do the seller, and they know what the market will bring for the make/model arena you are in.

 

10 minutes ago, Firebird2xc said:

Vref seems to be either inaccurate or ignored

I ran a Vref for the Bravo I fly and it is 240K. That wont happen, unless a buyer says "have your way with me", which also wont happen, Greg (the owner) is way way to honest.

 

19 minutes ago, Firebird2xc said:

Given all that- what do I *really* need to know about buying an older but properly maintained Mooney

You need to know where you can get 40K on an instant's notice.

[thinwing]

21 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

The answer to your broad question is "it depends" I think this is about the 5th or 6th time I have mentioned to prebuy the owner with as much diligence as you would perform on a plane prebuy, as it will tell a lot about what you can expect in regards to pro active maintenance, care, etc.

Not absurdly high because lower prices are caused by frogs. Unfortunately, people want princes at frog prices, and unless you find a seller willing to say "Ok, have your way with me, I want out", you probably wont find a prince for frog pricing. You might be better served to get with a reputable reseller like All American who look at you as a customer for life vs. a one and done. Sure, you will pay them a commission in the form of a price, but they will work for you as hard as they do the seller, and they know what the market will bring for the make/model arena you are in.

 

I ran a Vref for the Bravo I fly and it is 240K. That wont happen, unless a buyer says "have your way with me", which also wont happen, Greg (the owner) is way way to honest.

 

You need to know where you can get 40K on an instant's notice.

Last sentence the best practical advice...

[gsxrpilot]

I bought a M20C in 2014 and a M20K 252 in 2016. I'm happy to give you all the details, asking prices, issues, pre-buy, final price, etc.  Send me a PM.

[carusoam]

1) Frogs get frog prices.

2) Princes get prince prices.

3) Just because 'they' advertise a prince price, doesn't mean it isn't a frog.  PPI to help determine value...

4) knowing the owner always helps.  Sometimes he isn't going to be available... Is he on MS?

5) knowing the plane can be helpful. Is it on MS?

6)  Before getting excited about buying a particular plane... photos, logs and FAA details should be known.  

7) Going to See the plane in person is next on the list...

8) traveling to see an airplane gets expensive.

9) expect to match the costs of the acquisition to your budget.  Travel, PPI, TT, delivery...

10) if your budget to buy a plane is 40amu, it is a challenge to spend 10amu on acquisition costs...

11) Then expect the elevated first year expenses...

12) know the risks involved in taking chances... sometimes it may be worth the risk, sometimes it's not...

13) don't be lulled into buying in over your head.

14) Compare to your other life experiences... if you spend your entire savings on a (car, boat, plane, or house) where do you get the money to operate, maintain or keep it?  What happens when something breaks or wears out?

15) Stay away from the lowest priced planes in each category...  when looking at Cs and you find an E in the same price range.... when looking at Es and a J is in the same price range...  don't fall for it.

16) the economy has been improving for a decade, unemployment has been going down as well.  People aren't fearing losing their jobs like they were a few years ago.

17) competition on buying used things continues to strengthen.

18) what would happen if you paid more, and got more at the same time?

19) buying expensive things is expensive.

20) buying your first plane... stay well under budget.  If it works out well, move up...

fortunately you have MSers that don't mind helping you out when able...

If this was easy, everyone would do it.  If this doesn't make sense automatically, you may fall for the same trap you have been in already.

Best regards,

-a-

[Cruiser]

1 hour ago, Firebird2xc said:

Okay, all.  Been Mooney shopping and it's not been all roses.  The frog to prince ratio seems absurdly high, especially at lower price points.  Cost doesn't always equal quality, though, especially when sellers are biased about their airplane, and buyers are too tight-fisted with their AMUs...

Vref seems to be either inaccurate or ignored.  Maybe both.  Maybe it just doesn't reflect the market currently.

Apparently there are also a lot of 'givens' and unspoken conditions that come with various price points and equipment conditions...

That's a lot of potential heartache for a buyer or seller.  

Given all that- what do I *really* need to know about buying an older but properly maintained Mooney?

 

I am specifically looking for information on 201s, 205s, 231s, and 252s.   What's a realistic price range (as current actual owners see it) for those types?  What kind of issues and follow on costs should I realistically expect?

This should help me determine if my expectations per dollar are just too high or if I need to find a way to supplement my budget, if that's even feasible, etc...

I thank you all in advance.

I am not really sure what you are asking?

You already know about frogs and princes

You talk about owner bias and that buyers are stingy

You don't believe Vref

201s, 205s, 231s and 252s are not "older" Cs, Es and Fs are older

 

Are you just venting frustration or is the plane you want worth more than you expected?

[Firebird2xc]

2 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

The answer to your broad question is "it depends" I think this is about the 5th or 6th time I have mentioned to prebuy the owner with as much diligence as you would perform on a plane prebuy, as it will tell a lot about what you can expect in regards to pro active maintenance, care, etc.

Not absurdly high because lower prices are caused by frogs. Unfortunately, people want princes at frog prices, and unless you find a seller willing to say "Ok, have your way with me, I want out", you probably wont find a prince for frog pricing. You might be better served to get with a reputable reseller like All American who look at you as a customer for life vs. a one and done. Sure, you will pay them a commission in the form of a price, but they will work for you as hard as they do the seller, and they know what the market will bring for the make/model arena you are in.

I ran a Vref for the Bravo I fly and it is 240K. That wont happen, unless a buyer says "have your way with me", which also wont happen, Greg (the owner) is way way to honest.

You need to know where you can get 40K on an instant's notice.

That's about what I figured. Granted, I don't expect a prince at frog pricing.  I do tend to see a lot of frogs at prince pricing.  

The 40k- basically be ready to eat the cost of an overhaul at any time- that's the general idea?  This is actually very useful.  It tells me how much of my budget should be reserved for maintenance vs purchase price.  Thank you.

I am still curious what the ballpark range for a frog and prince would be in the respective four models I listed.  That might give me a clearer idea of what I should really be looking to spend.  I've come to question my own opinion on the subject, so I'm asking what everybody else thinks is a good price for a good J or K that's in decent shape.

[Firebird2xc]

1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

I bought a M20C in 2014 and a M20K 252 in 2016. I'm happy to give you all the details, asking prices, issues, pre-buy, final price, etc.  Send me a PM.

Thank you- I'll do just that.

[N6758N]

If it were me I would be looking hard at that 201 that @jclemens restored. Looks like a solid all around airplane.

[Marauder]

The best advice anyone can give you is to be very thorough on the buying process. A VRef will give you the basis for what the plane should be worth but a lot of factors come into play that will make it worth more or less.

 

How well an owner takes care of the plane is just as important as what the VRef says. A poorly maintained plane can cost you a lot more than saving some money based on the VRef.

 

I can't tell you the number of times I have read about someone getting a smoking hot deal on a plane to hear a short time later that a bunch of small issues have burned through the "smoking hot" part.

 

I would start with the VRef and then try to determine how well the owner maintained it. Look past the pretty paint and interior. Look at the mechanicals and the avionics. Those can put you in the poor house. Try to get a sense if the owner was progressive on maintaining things or were they a break/fix owner.

 

 

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[Firebird2xc]

1 hour ago, carusoam said:

3) Just because 'they' advertise a prince price, doesn't mean it isn't a frog.  PPI to help determine value...

4) knowing the owner always helps.  Sometimes he isn't going to be available... Is he on MS?

5) knowing the plane can be helpful. Is it on MS?

6)  Before getting excited about buying a particular plane... photos, logs and FAA details should be known.  

11) Then expect the elevated first year expenses...

12) know the risks involved in taking chances... sometimes it may be worth the risk, sometimes it's

14) Compare to your other life experiences... if you spend your entire savings on a (car, boat, plane, or house) where do you get the money to operate, maintain or keep it?  What happens when something breaks or wears out?

15) Stay away from the lowest priced planes in each category...  when looking at Cs and you find an E in the same price range.... when looking at Es and a J is in the same price range...  don't fall for it.

18) what would happen if you paid more, and got more at the same time?

Best regards,

-a-

3) This is where I seem to get a little confused. Vref says a plane needing paint knocks off $6000 in value.  But it costs $10000 to $15000 to paint a plane.  What?

4-5) Some planes and owners I'm looking at are on MS.  Some not.  A phone call to the owner usually fills in the blanks.  

6) One thing I've noticed is that things often don't look nearly as good as in pictures as in person.  I tend to trust my own eyes more than a carefully photoshopped ad.

11-12) I've been told first year annuals are 'exploratory'.  Is there a number you'd put on a first annual budget?

14) I keep a very low overhead and an emergency cash reserve.  I don't like not having an out.

15)  THIS is something I needed.  Low price is always bottom of the barrel?  Fair enough- the bottom ten or twenty percent of the price spread don't get second looks anymore.

18) I don't object to paying more if I'm actually getting more.  The hard part is telling the difference.

You're right - lots of helpful people here, and I appreciate you and everyone's else's input very much.

And yes, I'm starting to get it.  Apparently there is no such thing as a bargain on a used plane, no matter what the seller says.

 

 

 

[Jeff_S]

If you're really analytical (I was!) you should create a spreadsheet for every plane you're interested in, presumably from Trade-a-Plane and Controller.com.  The All American and other reputable resellers will all have their planes listed.  On that spreadsheet you should track some basic stats like TTE and TTAF, asking price, Vref calculated price, etc.  With these last two you can quickly get a sense of the delta between Asking and Vref prices which may help guide your decision.

With this data in hand, some planes may jump out at you. You may see what appears to be a "prince" at "frog" prices which merits further consideration. You will definitely see some frogs at princely pricing, which you may choose to ignore unless you feel like negotiating a lot. But if nothing else, it will give you a feel for where the market is and what you're likely to spend to get what you want. Remember, there's really no such thing as a true airplane valuation...it's only worth what the seller and buyer agree on as the final price!

My take on Mike's "have $40K to spend" was not related to an overhaul, but rather to have the money to spend immediately when you see a plane you really like. $40K is a good down payment for any plane, and could even buy you an older one outright.  That's how I would interpret that advice, anyway. Yes, you also have to realize you're going to spend something else after you bought it, but I don't think you need to plan on an additional $40K right away unless you REALLY didn't do your homework and get a proper inspection done.

[Firebird2xc]

1 hour ago, Cruiser said:

I am not really sure what you are asking?

You don't believe Vref

201s, 205s, 231s and 252s are not "older" Cs, Es and Fs are older

Are you just venting frustration or is the plane you want worth more than you expected?

To clarify- I DO believe Vref.  But it seems like planes I run through it often come in way under the list price.  A few times weirdly under- for no immediately apparent explanation.   I'm asking if Vref is getting dated or if there's a percentage fudge factor I should be applying.

Pardon my technical misstatement on the models listed.  I know those  airplanes are technically considered 'newer' models, but by older I mean 30+ year old airframes.  Early 80's as opposed to mid-90's.

I'm not venting at all.  I'm seriously asking if I should be raising my price estimate to get a plane I'd feel like had been well maintained in the past.  

[Firebird2xc]

43 minutes ago, N6758N said:

If it were me I would be looking hard at that 201 that @jclemens restored. Looks like a solid all around airplane.

It's being considered.  I've already been up to see it.  I feel like it might need a few things and the cost of them plus purchase price might be too much for me.  My opinion on that might evolve, but after my recent prebuy fiasco I don't want to make any quick decisions and potentially waste anybody's time.

[RobertGary1]

Just remember that even though you're spending new luxury car prices you're still buying a 30-40 y we old vehicle. 

-Robert

[ArtVandelay]

I spent over 6 months look at Js online, I had a notebook with all pertinent data. At that time if you gave me a price, I could almost describe the plane, it's features, and approximate year without ever seeing it.
I knew what was a good deal and what wasn't, I knew which ones would sell quickly.
Then after 6 months...I got serious.

[Firebird2xc]

2 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

Just remember that even though you're spending new luxury car prices you're still buying a 30-40 y we old vehicle. 

-Robert

Solid advice. Perhaps that's where the cognitive dissonance lies.

It still confuses me to see people said machines and leave them out in the rain.

[Firebird2xc]

2 minutes ago, teejayevans said:

I spent over 6 months look at Js online, I had a notebook with all pertinent data. At that time if you gave me a price, I could almost describe the plane, it's features, and approximate year without ever seeing it.
I knew what was a good deal and what wasn't, I knew which ones would sell quickly.
Then after 6 months...I got serious.

If that's true. Maybe what I really need is more patience.  I might not have done all the homework yet- and the right plane might not even be listed yet.

This is actually very encouraging.  Thank you.

[MB65E]

Each category of airplane will have its rough ones and cream puffs. 

An Ultra nice C,E, or F figure $60k plus.

A cherry nice J or K will be above 150k

Finally, to touch a nice long body will be near 200k. 

Anything else and you will need to break out the pen and paper and go to town. 

Most want a 200k airplane for $110k. 

I'd start at the top and work down because it's really hard to make a 40k airplane into a 60k airplane. Waaaay more than the $20k it looks like on paper. 

-Matt

[Firebird2xc]

2 minutes ago, MB65E said:

Each category of airplane will have its rough ones and cream puffs. 

An Ultra nice C,E, or F figure $60k plus.

A cherry nice J or K will be above 150k

Finally, to touch a nice long body will be near 200k. 

Anything else and you will need to break out the pen and paper and go to town. 

Most want a 200k airplane for $110k. 

I'd start at the top and work down because it's really hard to make a 40k airplane into a 60k airplane. Waaaay more than the $20k it looks like on paper. 

-Matt

This is a big help.  Thank you.

[gsengle]

You don't get the difference between what vref knocks off for paint, 6k, and the cost of a new paint job? And why those numbers diverge?


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[N6758N]

I think the most important thing here is that you're not rushing into it. It takes time to find the right airplane, and it seems like you have a pretty good grasp on that concept. There is another thread on here where someone is trying to buy a C' and ignoring the warning signs others are telling them about issues with the airplane. I recently was hired to ferry a cherokee 180 from Dallas to Philly even though I told the owner the airplane did not look good on paper and I strongly recommended he not buy it, but he was stubborn and did it anyways. Now he gets to dump a ton of money into it making it airworthy. So take your time, keep looking get a PPI again and the right airplane will come along. 

[MB65E]

Expect less than 1/2 back on the ROI of your upgrades. Buy one that's already been done and pay that price, or build one up to suit yourself and enjoy it. I really think those that are maintaining and upgrading their airplane every year are doing a huge service to the fleet. An object is always at a constant rate of decline, maintaining it only slows that process, upgrading it slows it more. 

-Matt

[jetdriven]

IDK, for a while , All American was putting G430s in everything they had, because they got it all back, and them some.  IN fact, they couldnt sell the ones without them.

[KSMooniac]

IDK, for a while , All American was putting G430s in everything they had, because they got it all back, and them some.  IN fact, they couldnt sell the ones without them.

They were likely paying much less than the average owner to get them into a plane, so I have no doubt that they got their money back, and sooner rather than later. The biggest takeaway about that from Jimmy was "you might as well install one now and enjoy using it for a while, because you'll need one to sell the plane eventually."

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