100LL: EPA proposed endangerment finding

[jaylw314]

  On 10/18/2022 at 10:53 PM, aviatoreb said:

But I again emphasize that a lot of science is not done statistically at all.  Even though I think in medical science it is more common.  And no one compute a correlation coefficient.  Look through a telescope and see a sunspot and refuse to say there is a solar flare going on because I forgot to compute the correlation for the event.  Run navier stokes equation in a computational fluid dynamics estimate for air flow over a wing and refuse to interpret the results since this is only one data point and so I can't compute a correlation.

Tell you what- your comfort with making important decisions with incomplete information, in crisis moments - as a medical professional - your my kinda guy and I only hope I would have you on call if I ever need you!!!

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That's precisely what juries do in court cases.  They may not call it a statistical analysis, but they get specific instructions on what 'beyond a reasonable doubt' or 'clear and convincing' means conceptually.

I remind people in training that a career in health care is a career of continuous, unending and unyielding pressure to make quick and life-changing decisions based on incomplete, inaccurate, apocryphal and wildly misleading information.  What I don't tell them is that that probably holds true in most areas in life, but what can I say, I like scaring the residents 

[aviatoreb]

  On 10/18/2022 at 11:10 PM, jaylw314 said:

That's precisely what juries do in court cases.  They may not call it a statistical analysis, but they get specific instructions on what 'beyond a reasonable doubt' or 'clear and convincing' means conceptually.

I remind people in training that a career in health care is a career of continuous, unending and unyielding pressure to make quick and life-changing decisions based on incomplete, inaccurate, apocryphal and wildly misleading information.  What I don't tell them is that that probably holds true in most areas in life, but what can I say, I like scaring the residents 

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Indeed!  In law - in the US law system, the standard of "proof" is a well defined thing that is briefed to a jury (speaking out of my area), and it is not at all necessarily the same thing as decision sciences based on statistical analysis, which is not at all the same thing other areas of science which may be statistically based, which is not all at all the same as mathematics areas based on axioms, even if there may be some overlap (think Venn diagram) between some of them.

And even in law, as I understand it as a non lawyer, isn't there a different standard of proof based on the type of case.  In criminal law, is it beyond a reasonable doubt.  In civil law, its beyond the preponderance of doubt?  But none of those are a correlation coefficient computed.  In none of those typically is a counterfactual experiment designed.

Anyway - ROP of LOP?

Edited October 18, 2022 by aviatoreb

[ilovecornfields]

At $7.40 a gallon? LOP.

[EricJ]

  On 10/18/2022 at 10:46 PM, aviatoreb said:

I wonder if we mean the same thing when we say correlation.

In English, correlation means: "a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things."

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/correlation

which sure - means things are related.  Why not?

In math (statistics) it is a very specific computation with a formula that has many failings if over interpreted.  Besides confounding variables. missed variables.  It is also a linear response measurement tool.  And certainly things can be nonlinear too.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/correlation/

In your murder example - I don't think you mean you are computing a correlation coefficient

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In signal processing we also have a "correlation function", which is essentially the correlation between two different signals as their relative alignments change.   So if you have a template for a signal sequence, aka a "reference function", you can check to see where that particular sequence happens in another signal, and the output correlation function will tell you where in the signal the "reference function" occured, or how much it occured, or where it is most likely to have occurred, etc.

This is done a lot in signal acquisition in wireless receivers and is how your cell phone and a tower find each other, how your GPS receiver finds the satellite signals, etc., etc.   It's used all the time in quite a number of different ways.   It can be done in multiple dimensions as well, to find things in images, or locate things in an image.   Sonar and radar do this fundamentally.

So, yeah, when somebody talks about "correlation", it's always important to figure out what they really mean, because it could be a few different things. 

[aviatoreb]

  On 10/19/2022 at 12:31 AM, ilovecornfields said:

At $7.40 a gallon? LOP.

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ROP vs LOP - yours is an economic answer to a question I meant to ask in terms of epistemology.

Epistimology: the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope. Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.

[N201MKTurbo]

  On 10/19/2022 at 1:02 AM, aviatoreb said:

ROP vs LOP - yours is an economic answer to a question I meant to ask in terms of epistemology.

Epistimology: the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope. Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.

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I believe that’s true.

[carusoam]

  On 10/19/2022 at 1:02 AM, aviatoreb said:

 

Epistimology: the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope. Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.

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Winner!

The newest MS word of the day award…. For using Epistemology in an MS Post!

While the other guys were just Bimbling around….  (Yesterday’s word)

 

Soooo…

initially, I was a bit scared…

I was eating these really good snack foods while reading and writing… and my fingers were turning bright yellow!

Fortunately, it all washed off easily….   

No monoclonal antibodies required…

 

Go MS!

Slowly getting to know all of the players… one at a time….

Best regards,

-a-

[Hank]

Epistemologically, Erik @aviatoreb, I operate my carbureted Mooney ROP.

[MikeOH]

Wow, I guess epistemology justifies my belief that this thread wins "Thread drift of all time"

[0TreeLemur]

  On 10/19/2022 at 12:31 AM, ilovecornfields said:

At $7.40 a gallon? LOP.

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  On 10/19/2022 at 1:02 AM, aviatoreb said:

Epistimology: the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope. Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.

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counting crows. 

[aviatoreb]

  On 10/21/2022 at 9:28 PM, 0TreeLemur said:

 

counting crows. 

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We have Canadians - Canadian geese in our backyard.

 And 6 swans.  

[Hank]

  On 10/21/2022 at 11:15 PM, aviatoreb said:

We have Canadians - Canadian geese in our backyard.

 And 6 swans.  

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My previous airport would have 12-15 or more buzzards circling on the final approach course . . . . Now we have ducks on the pond in the spring with an ever-dwindling number of ducklings following along. Well fed turtles, though. 

[aviatoreb]

  On 10/22/2022 at 2:25 AM, Hank said:

My previous airport would have 12-15 or more buzzards circling on the final approach course . . . . Now we have ducks on the pond in the spring with an ever-dwindling number of ducklings following along. Well fed turtles, though. 

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Well that must be aeronautical progress.  I mean how many turtle strikes do airplanes suffer through every year?

[Hank]

  On 10/22/2022 at 11:25 AM, aviatoreb said:

Well that must be aeronautical progress.  I mean how many turtle strikes do airplanes suffer through every year?

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Fortunately my Mooney is immune to underwater turtle strikes! The turtles wouldn't enjoy it near as much as they do baby ducklings, either.

[Smiles201]

So interesting to hear comments about health risks from aviators. We enjoy flying as we must put aside the obvious risks of our hobby. Thus, we like to deny the reality that some of us, and it is partly random who it will be, will be hurt by flying.  Likewise, we tend to discount any information that implies any other possible danger in our love of aviation. We have invested much time and money,  and this also contributes to our bias. Safety legislation is one area where we need government help. Otherwise, we would continue to operate unsafe factories, breath in too many chemicals, drink bad water, etc. I don't know about 100LL, but I know we all hate to comply with rules that do not seem to have an immediate impact on ourselves or others, and that affect our way of life. We love our freedom to do as we please! I hate speed limits and love to drive fast. I have the illusion that my superior skill will keep me and others safe. So far I am correct. But the odds are not in my favor. Being a stupid, selfish human, I will continue to drive fast, except when the wife is with me! 

[FlyingDude]

  On 10/25/2022 at 7:33 AM, Smiles201 said:

Being a stupid, selfish human, I will continue to drive fast, except when the wife is with me!

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Please go to Germany and observe how people drive. Much much faster and safer than in US. I assume it’s because they actually teach people to drive and apply strict tests than to hand out driving permits to 16 year-olds who maybe did a summer of bumper cars. “Drive slow” people to me sound like “no sugar” people who somehow binge on calories. 

For the rest of your commentary… the blanket thought that “we only think and act in our interests”, I disagree with that. I, for one, would like lead removed from avgas, but not because I think it’s any more dangerous than any other toxic chemical that we’re surrounded with in our modern world. Another example: I’ve self quarantined when I suspected that I may have had covid, even if it was totally against my selfish interests. So yeah, humans act in their interests but I don’t think we’re that vile…

[A64Pilot]

You would never get the US to drive like German’s. First the people simply don’t have the discipline, and in the US driving is seen as some kind of right, in Germany it’s a privilege, one that’s not inexpensive and easily lost.

A great many drivers in the US would lose their licenses if held to German standards and their would be claims of inequality etc. It just can’t happen. When I was there in the mid 90’s most often there would only be one driver in a household, usually the man, the Wife usually didn’t work and rode her bicycle to shop everyday. Society wise it wasn’t much different than the US in the 50’s or maybe 60’s.

Getting a German driving license is pretty analogous to us getting a Pilots license, it takes a lot of training and a not inconsiderable amount of money.

German’s have a deep ingrained belief or desire or whatever about their Autobahn’s. A normally reserved person who is very environmentally conscious that recycles everything and turns the car off at R/R crossings and long lights so as not to pollute becomes a different person on the Bahn, they still drive politely (one of the biggest driving tickets you can get is from being discourteous I was told) but they will open that big Beemer up burning Liters of fuel per minute, the complete opposite of the reserved very environmentally concerned German your used to seeing, sort of a Jekyll / Hyde personality.

 In particular when you see a German on a Liter Superbike, he or she took years to get there and stepped up through a few bikes. They aren’t allowed just to buy one and ride it like we are.

However you see very few fender benders on the Autobahn, when they have an accident, which happens less there than here, it’s very often really bad, a crash at those speed is very energetic to say the least.

What has always amazed me in the US is boats, all you need to operate 20,000 lbs of a couple thousand HP Sportfisherman is for the check to clear. Often it shows too.

[FlyingDude]

  On 10/25/2022 at 12:45 PM, A64Pilot said:

First the people simply don’t have the discipline

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I respectfully disagree: I've seen Americans very disciplined and orderly in many facets of the society.  

 

[A64Pilot]

Unless things have changed drastically and as it’s been almost 30 years they may have, but US driving isn’t remotely similar to German driving, and it is a reflection on society differences.

But there were zero instances of road rage, you never heard a horn and were never, ever cut off in Germany, and no one ever just drove in the left lane, you always drove as far right as was reasonable and if anyone ever was overtaking you, you did whatever was safe to not impede their progress, to include speed up so you could move over to get out of their way, if they had to touch their brakes, you failed. People knew what the little stick sticking out the left side of the steering column was for. Contrary to popular belief you did not flash to pass, because if you did, you were being rude, and you were never rude. 

Every now and again you would hear of a “ghost driver” on the Autobahn, but it was never reported in the news because they didn’t want to encourage that behavior. A ghost driver was someone going the wrong way on the Autobahn, assumption is they were suicidal and I guess wanted to take someone else with them. But I never witnessed it, only rarely heard rumors.

Not to say they weren’t emotional, I got behind one German in his big AMG Merc on the Bahn coming back from Bremerhaven and was overtaking him, so he pulled over to the right, when I passed him and he realized a US car had bested him, he was visibly upset. They had great pride in the Big BMW’s and Merc’s and I guess, no I know it was an insult for your Merc to be topped out, and passed.

Seeing a police car out policing driving was very, very rare, yes there were speed cameras but nearly no enforcement of traffic laws, they simply didn’t need them.

I don’t know where you live, but I can’t imagine seeing that anywhere I’ve ever lived except Texas, in the Country in Texas they are pretty close, at least in being polite and courteous and that’s 90% of the difference between US and German driving.

[Will.iam]

  On 10/25/2022 at 1:34 PM, A64Pilot said:

Unless things have changed drastically and as it’s been almost 30 years they may have, but US driving isn’t remotely similar to German driving, and it is a reflection on society differences.

But there were zero instances of road rage, you never heard a horn and were never, ever cut off in Germany, and no one ever just drove in the left lane, you always drove as far right as was reasonable and if anyone ever was overtaking you, you did whatever was safe to not impede their progress, to include speed up so you could move over to get out of their way, if they had to touch their brakes, you failed. People knew what the little stick sticking out the left side of the steering column was for. Contrary to popular belief you did not flash to pass, because if you did, you were being rude, and you were never rude. 

Every now and again you would hear of a “ghost driver” on the Autobahn, but it was never reported in the news because they didn’t want to encourage that behavior. A ghost driver was someone going the wrong way on the Autobahn, assumption is they were suicidal and I guess wanted to take someone else with them. But I never witnessed it, only rarely heard rumors.

Not to say they weren’t emotional, I got behind one German in his big AMG Merc on the Bahn coming back from Bremerhaven and was overtaking him, so he pulled over to the right, when I passed him and he realized a US car had bested him, he was visibly upset. They had great pride in the Big BMW’s and Merc’s and I guess, no I know it was an insult for your Merc to be topped out, and passed.

Seeing a police car out policing driving was very, very rare, yes there were speed cameras but nearly no enforcement of traffic laws, they simply didn’t need them.

I don’t know where you live, but I can’t imagine seeing that anywhere I’ve ever lived except Texas, in the Country in Texas they are pretty close, at least in being polite and courteous and that’s 90% of the difference between US and German driving.

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Ah times have changed, when i first drove over in Germany there were no speed limits on the autobahn, last time i was over there 2019 i was surprised at how many speed limits they had at turns in the autobahn true the limits were like 120km or 140km which are speed limits for alot of US highways but i was driving a rented diesel Mercedes and above 140 it accelerated very slowly so that by the time i got up to 240km i would have to slow down for the next bend in the road that was now speed limited. I guess too many high speed wrecks on curves have slowed the autobahn a bit. And Texas drivers are friendly in the hill country but the city the city slickers not so much. 

[FlyingDude]

  On 10/25/2022 at 2:05 PM, Will.iam said:

Ah times have changed,

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I was there last June and from Munich all the way to Czech border was pretty much limitless.  There has always been the "120 km/h when wet" limit, so it was never truly purely limitless at all times...

[Shadrach]

  On 10/25/2022 at 2:05 PM, Will.iam said:

Ah times have changed, when i first drove over in Germany there were no speed limits on the autobahn, last time i was over there 2019 i was surprised at how many speed limits they had at turns in the autobahn true the limits were like 120km or 140km which are speed limits for alot of US highways but i was driving a rented diesel Mercedes and above 140 it accelerated very slowly so that by the time i got up to 240km i would have to slow down for the next bend in the road that was now speed limited. I guess too many high speed wrecks on curves have slowed the autobahn a bit. And Texas drivers are friendly in the hill country but the city the city slickers not so much. 

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That must’ve been a diminutive diesel in a large car. One of the things that inspired me to purchase a new generation German diesel was my driving experience in Italy back in 2010. The Audi 3L turbodiesels  dominated the autostradas. I had a Lancia Delta 1.9 TDI. It was peppy enough to cruise at 180 to 200kmh, but the A5 3L TDIs looked like rocket ships by comparison. I’d try to run with them because they seemed to know where the speed cameras were. They would pull away with great authority. Up until that point all of my diesel experience was with 80s era GM and Mercedes diesels/turbo diesels which we’re efficient but so slow they were positively scary to drive.  Now I much prefer my 3L diesel to my 3L petrol. 

[Will.iam]

  On 10/25/2022 at 2:35 PM, Shadrach said:

That must’ve been a diminutive diesel in a large car. One of the things that inspired me to purchase a new generation German diesel was my driving experience in Italy back in 2010. The Audi 3L turbodiesels  dominated the autostradas. I had a Lancia Delta 1.9 TDI. It was peppy enough to cruise at 180 to 200kmh, but the A5 3L TDIs looked like rocket ships by comparison. I’d try to run with them because they seemed to know where the speed cameras were. They would pull away with great authority. Up until that point all of my diesel experience was with 80s era GM and Mercedes diesels/turbo diesels which we’re efficient but so slow they were positively scary to drive.  Now I much prefer my 3L diesel to my 3L petrol. 

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Yea rental car sucks but it was cheap. 

[Will.iam]

  On 10/25/2022 at 2:33 PM, FlyingDude said:

I was there last June and from Munich all the way to Czech border was pretty much limitless.  There has always been the "120 km/h when wet" limit, so it was never truly purely limitless at all times...

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Try driving Frankfurt to Rammstein your speed will be much more limited and not even when wet. 

[Pinecone]

  On 10/25/2022 at 1:34 PM, A64Pilot said:

Unless things have changed drastically and as it’s been almost 30 years they may have, but US driving isn’t remotely similar to German driving, and it is a reflection on society differences.

But there were zero instances of road rage, you never heard a horn and were never, ever cut off in Germany, and no one ever just drove in the left lane, you always drove as far right as was reasonable and if anyone ever was overtaking you, you did whatever was safe to not impede their progress, to include speed up so you could move over to get out of their way, if they had to touch their brakes, you failed. People knew what the little stick sticking out the left side of the steering column was for. Contrary to popular belief you did not flash to pass, because if you did, you were being rude, and you were never rude. 

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In the past, if you were in the left lane and got hit from behind (unlimited speed sections) you were at fault for impeding traffic.

I disagree that there is no flash to pass.  I have personally seen it.  I was driving a section from Garmisch to Frankfurt. Flat out in an Opel.  I saw headlights WAY behind, as I was in the left lane passing.  They flashed.  I got over as soon as I could and a Porsche passed my like I was standing still.  And I was doing 190 (KPH).

About fuel consumption, my 2002 M3 gets better gas mileage at 85 than 65.