Kerrville crash, two lost..

[donkaye]

2 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

It’s a hypocritical statement to not openly discuss just because it may or may not be the Mooney factory. 

3 people who know the owner and know I was in the area called me. All 3 said it was at Mooney for some work and an annual. Johnny said it was not at Mooney. 
 

That’s where we’re at. That’s not disparaging to a business. It’s a flow of information. Information that if true, I’m 100% certain would not make it to this public forum by anyone that would have been involved or know for sure.  This forum has a demonstrated history of hiding and withholding information when that information is negative to a group or individual. 

I unequivocally choose to believe Jonny.  I've flown with him, talked with him, and listened to him transparently discuss Mooney at MooneyMax 2022 like no other CEO before him, and I've been around Mooneys and these events for 29 years.  As discussed in another thread, the Kerrville Factory Mooney Service Center was able to diagnose and solve an issue that even my outstanding MSC was not able to track down.

[carusoam]

2 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

It’s a hypocritical statement to not openly discuss just because it may or may not be the Mooney factory. 
 

When we talk about post maintenance accidents we always talk about the shop. in this case no fewer than 3 people have directly told me the Mooney factory was the shop. 
 

It should be no different in this case. 
 

you don’t get to shield or censor a topic just because the direction the discussion is going doesn’t look kindly on a thing you like. 
 

3 people who know the owner and know I was in the area called me. All 3 said it was at Mooney for some work and an annual. Johnny said it was not at Mooney. 
 

That’s where we’re at. That’s not disparaging to a business. It’s a flow of information. Information that if true, I’m 100% certain would not make it to this public forum by anyone that would have been involved or know for sure.  This forum has a demonstrated history of hiding and withholding information when that information is negative to a group or individual. 

Would you like a response?

Or do you have me set on ignore?

Best regards,

-a-

[KSMooniac]

I saw ADS-B tracks earlier that show the plane leaving from a different facility in Kerrville, on the other side of the airport from the factory, so unless they drug it across the airport before starting it, it very likely didn't come out of the factory service center.

I imagine 2nd/3rd/4th hand info morphed the story from "getting work done in Kerrville" to "taking it to Mooney" since many folks don't realize there are other options there.

Hopefully the investigators will find something definitive. It reminds me of what I believe to be the first loss of a Turbo Bullet 201 mod in 1993. It triggered the AD that lowered the MP limits. Look up N57287 and you'll see "power loss for undetermined reasons" and nothing more. (The NTSB report erroneously calls it a Rocket mod, but it was a Turbo Bullet J owned by my Mooney mentors, and flown by a fellow flying club member on the accident flight. He perished but his wife and kids survived.)

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[chriscalandro]

2 hours ago, carusoam said:

Would you like a response?

Or do you have me set on ignore?

Best regards,

-a-

It’s not a requirement to respond to every comment or topic posted. 

[eman1200]

I saw ADS-B tracks earlier that show the plane leaving from a different facility in Kerrville, on the other side of the airport from the factory, so unless they drug it across the airport before starting it, it very likely didn't come out of the factory service center…..

Wow, that’s the most pinpoint accurate adsb ever. I have never ever ever seen an adsb track get down to that level of detail that you can see a planes track on one side of the ramp or the other. In fact a lot of the time it doesn’t even start tracking until takeoff or after a few minutes of taxiing. Also, if any of the rumors are true, the plane was there for months before pickup so it is likely the plane was moved (towed) out of the way. Can’t imagine any shop leaving a plane right in front knowing it wouldn’t be picked up for months. But all that is speculation, which apparently offends some people.

[RobertGary1]

21 hours ago, EricJ said:

In my observation the vast majority of content in any of the accident threads here (or just about anywhere) are speculation.    I think that's okay because it gets people thinking about potential issues and how to handle similar situations, etc.

If we're gonna have speculation police it's gonna cut the traffic way, way down.

Or we can just recognize that this is, in fact, the internet, and anything posted here or anywhere else therein should be treated as such.

 

I think it distracts and leads to nothing but confirmation bias as to what pilots assume are likely causes. Then when the real cause comes out no learning takes place because everyone has already patted themselves on the back for figuring it out. 

[chriscalandro]

26 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

I think it distracts and leads to nothing but confirmation bias as to what pilots assume are likely causes. Then when the real cause comes out no learning takes place because everyone has already patted themselves on the back for figuring it out. 

Except nobody has any information about what happened and conflicting reports on who did the work. So that isn’t a problem here. 

[Sixstring2k]

15 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

It’s a hypocritical statement to not openly discuss just because it may or may not be the Mooney factory. 
 

When we talk about post maintenance accidents we always talk about the shop. in this case no fewer than 3 people have directly told me the Mooney factory was the shop. 
 

It should be no different in this case. 
 

you don’t get to shield or censor a topic just because the direction the discussion is going doesn’t look kindly on a thing you like. 
 

3 people who know the owner and know I was in the area called me. All 3 said it was at Mooney for some work and an annual. Johnny said it was not at Mooney. 
 

That’s where we’re at. That’s not disparaging to a business. It’s a flow of information. Information that if true, I’m 100% certain would not make it to this public forum by anyone that would have been involved or know for sure.  This forum has a demonstrated history of hiding and withholding information when that information is negative to a group or individual. 

I think the people talking to you made an assumption because the adsb information further up shows the plane taxing somewhere else on the field and not the Mooney factory. It will take time for the information and reason for the crash to come out but it will, but so far the adsb does not lie. 

Let’s try to be respectful. 

[LANCECASPER]

15 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

When we talk about post maintenance accidents we always talk about the shop. in this case no fewer than 3 people have directly told me the Mooney factory was the shop. 

Since the Factory Service Center hasn't worked on anything but Bravos, Ovations and Acclaims so far since re-opening, unless this J disguised itself as a long body, it's highly unlikely.

[ilovecornfields]

47 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

Since the Factory Service Center hasn't worked on anything but Bravos, Ovations and Acclaims so far since re-opening, unless this J disguised itself as a long body, it's highly unlikely.

Are you aware of the “ignore” function? Just asking. ;-)

I think we already heard from the CEO of Mooney that the plane wasn’t at the shop. Not sure what random people speculating otherwise really adds to the conversation.

[Shadrach]

On 6/28/2022 at 6:16 AM, eman1200 said:

Wow, that’s the most pinpoint accurate adsb ever. I have never ever ever seen an adsb track get down to that level of detail that you can see a planes track on one side of the ramp or the other. In fact a lot of the time it doesn’t even start tracking until takeoff or after a few minutes of taxiing. Also, if any of the rumors are true, the plane was there for months before pickup so it is likely the plane was moved (towed) out of the way. Can’t imagine any shop leaving a plane right in front knowing it wouldn’t be picked up for months. But all that is speculation, which apparently offends some people.

 

adsbexchange.com captures quite a bit of taxi data.  I find that it pretty accurately tracks me to shut down but does not capture my initial start up position.  That is what you are seeing in the previous posts.  It appears it was parked at Dugosh in the days preceding the crash.  I am not suggesting that means anything given the information available. 

Post MX accidents are a real concern and a subject that I am very much interested in.  I have personally had my plane returned to me in unairworthy condition.  After sorting out the obvious problems (500rpm mag drop, taped static ports, cracked oil cooler, and more) it took several ground runs to gain the confidence to fly the plane and then several solo flights to gain the confidence to take on passengers. I have no idea what happened here and neither does anyone else. Hopefully the investigation will yield some answers. If a maintenance induced failure (MIF) was at the root of this crash, there will be plenty to say when/if that comes to light.  I too engage in speculation when a crash occurs as I think it is good practice to sort through various scenarios that led to the crash and how the chain might have been broken.  In this case we have almost nothing to go on.  Speculation about a maintenance induced failure and possible responsibility based on rumor isn't really constructive and has the potential to border on libelous.   

For the record, I too believe Jonny's statement, not because I know him or have some insight into his character, but because under the circumstances, there is no incentive for making a false statement on a public internet forum. 

[Ragsf15e]

I’m not saying Kerville has great adsb, but depending on the coverage, it’s used to deconflict vehicles and airplanes during low vis at bigger airports.  If it’s getting a valid signal from the airplane on the ground, it’s got a valid waas posit.  

None of that matters in my opinion as we don’t know who did the maintenance, but we do know that the Mooney factory service center did not.  Jonny cleared that up.

[ArtVandelay]

I’m not saying Kerville has great adsb, but depending on the coverage, it’s used to deconflict vehicles and airplanes during low vis at bigger airports.  If it’s getting a valid signal from the airplane on the ground, it’s got a valid waas posit.  

They may have had the diversity option with extra top antenna gIving it ability to transmit a better signal while on the ground.

[Marauder]

There is an ADS-B tower southeast of Kerrvile. I’ve been at airports where I was able to get ADS-B on the ground. Maybe this is what is happening.




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[RobertGary1]

8 hours ago, eman1200 said:

 

Wow, that’s the most pinpoint accurate adsb ever. I have never ever ever seen an adsb track get down to that level of detail that you can see a planes track on one side of the ramp or the other. In fact a lot of the time it doesn’t even start tracking until takeoff or after a few minutes of taxiing. Also, if any of the rumors are true, the plane was there for months before pickup so it is likely the plane was moved (towed) out of the way. Can’t imagine any shop leaving a plane right in front knowing it wouldn’t be picked up for months. But all that is speculation, which apparently offends some people.

 

 

At larger airports they're using ADS-B to alert ground control if you taxi the wrong way. Just try taxiing out without setting your transponder code now and ground will remind you. Remember in the old days we'd shut the xponder off for taxi??

[jaylw314]

On 6/27/2022 at 8:47 AM, EricJ said:

In my observation the vast majority of content in any of the accident threads here (or just about anywhere) are speculation.    I think that's okay because it gets people thinking about potential issues and how to handle similar situations, etc.

If we're gonna have speculation police it's gonna cut the traffic way, way down.

Or we can just recognize that this is, in fact, the internet, and anything posted here or anywhere else therein should be treated as such.

+1.  Speculation is good if it gets us thinking about ourselves, the number one factor in accidents.  I don't think of that as being disrespectful to people involved.  Heck, if I augered in one day because I got a case of the stupids, knowing that it triggered some brain juices flowing in you guys would make me feel a little better.

On the other hand, speculation often is used as a way to obviate the need to improve ourselves, e.g. "that will never happen to me because do it different", "it's someone else's fault because that's how the world works", or "I do things that way and I'm still here so it must be okay."  That would piss me off, and I'd come haunting you with a pitchfork, or whatever they give you to work with in hell.

Edited June 28, 2022 by jaylw314

[LANCECASPER]

2 hours ago, Marauder said:

There is an ADS-B tower southeast of Kerrvile. I’ve been at airports where I was able to get ADS-B on the ground. Maybe this is what is happening.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I live 13 mi. N of Kerrville and I get ADS-B on the ground, sometimes in my hangar, at the airport  where I live.

[RobertGary1]

3 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

+1.  Speculation is good if it gets us thinking about ourselves, the number one factor in accidents.  I don't think of that as being disrespectful to people involved.  Heck, if I augered in one day because I got a case of the stupids, knowing that it triggered some brain juices flowing in you guys would make me feel a little better.

On the other hand, speculation often is used as a way to obviate the need to improve ourselves, e.g. "that will never happen to me because do it different", "it's someone else's fault because that's how the world works", or "I do things that way and I'm still here so it must be okay."  That would piss me off, and I'd come haunting you with a pitchfork, or whatever they give you to work with in hell.

In my experience nearly all couch potato speculation is just to reinforce existing biases and to cognitively separate from an accident. "I'm much smarter than that guy". Then the real cause is released by the NTSB and everyone has moved on and forgotten the accident. As instructors we have the entire NSTB database of factual findings to teach from, why pick something out of the newspaper with a 30 second investigation by a reported who doesn't know a Cessna from a Boeing?

[Danb]

What procedures are needed to get the type of details from ADSBEXCHANGE, is it free?

[jaylw314]

48 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

In my experience nearly all couch potato speculation is just to reinforce existing biases and to cognitively separate from an accident. "I'm much smarter than that guy". Then the real cause is released by the NTSB and everyone has moved on and forgotten the accident. As instructors we have the entire NSTB database of factual findings to teach from, why pick something out of the newspaper with a 30 second investigation by a reported who doesn't know a Cessna from a Boeing?

For some (but not all) people, uncertainty can reduce the power of confirmation bias.  After all, if you don't have the answer, it might be easier for some to avoid falling into preconceived notions.  When you're given the conclusion in a final report, I think a lot of people fall into the trap of making it fit their world view.

[Shadrach]

57 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

In my experience nearly all couch potato speculation is just to reinforce existing biases and to cognitively separate from an accident. "I'm much smarter than that guy"……..

Can you provide some examples of this on this forum?  If you’re uncomfortable pointing to specific posts, how about a few threads where the most egregious examples can be easily seen? Should be easy to do if “nearly all” of it is as you describe.

[ilovecornfields]

45 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

In my experience nearly all couch potato speculation is just to reinforce existing biases and to cognitively separate from an accident. "I'm much smarter than that guy". Then the real cause is released by the NTSB and everyone has moved on and forgotten the accident. As instructors we have the entire NSTB database of factual findings to teach from, why pick something out of the newspaper with a 30 second investigation by a reported who doesn't know a Cessna from a Boeing?

I’m not a CFI (AGI, but I don’t think that counts) but I would disagree a little bit. For me, the benefit of the accident reports and speculation is to try to figure out why a reasonable person thought that was a good idea at the time, and then decide how I would handle that situation in the future. It’s not to do the NTSB’s job for them or find someone to blame.

I find that in stressful situations it’s better if you’ve already thought out or rehearsed the scenario beforehand than if you try to make the best choices in the heat of the moment (because that often doesn’t happen). Speculation about accident reports allows us to do this.

I think the reason we talk about current events is partly due to motivation and partly because so much uncertainty allows for more speculation. I think the speculation is more useful to me than the NTSB report because it covers so much more. As long as it’s well thought out and respectful. 

[Shadrach]

29 minutes ago, Danb said:

What procedures are needed to get the type of details from ADSBEXCHANGE, is it free?

It’s free. Put in the N number and select the date under history.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com

 

[GeeBee]

Speculation when it involves people's or business reputations is not appropriate. It can also be very costly if you end up a defendant.. Most important it is just not fair to them.

Even if reputations are not at stake, unless you have direct first hand knowledge everything is an assumption because you are relying upon the reporting of those who job it is to sensationalize their report for revenue. How many times have you been involved in something directly that made the paper or the TV news? Did they get it right?

Several decades back I had a German Shepard get loose from his kennel in the baggage hold. I  taxi'd to the gate with the dog hanging out the outflow valve barking his head off. The dog was fine but had to be wrangled when we opened the baggage door.  Two months later when I was in recurrent ground school it was "a dead sheep, hanging out the outflow valve by its hooves" as the crew taxi'd along. Now every instructor in the school house had access to the report I wrote up, but even they bought the sensational rather than source the actual event. Get the point?

Be fair and consider who you might harm before you speculate.

[LANCECASPER]

6 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

Speculation when it involves people's or business reputations is not appropriate. It can also be very costly if you end up a defendant.. Most important it is just not fair to them.

Even if reputations are not at stake, unless you have direct first hand knowledge everything is an assumption because you are relying upon the reporting of those who job it is to sensationalize their report for revenue. How many times have you been involved in something directly that made the paper or the TV news? Did they get it right?

Several decades back I had a German Shepard get loose from his kennel in the baggage hold. I  taxi'd to the gate with the dog hanging out the outflow valve barking his head off. The dog was fine but had to be wrangled when we opened the baggage door.  Two months later when I was in recurrent ground school it was "a dead sheep, hanging out the outflow valve by its hooves" as the crew taxi'd along. Now every instructor in the school house had access to the report I wrote up, but even they bought the sensational rather than source the actual event. Get the point?

Be fair and consider who you might harm before you speculate.

If you carry a sheep or two with you on those long lonely flights, who are we to judge  . .  or speculate?