Factory Closed Down?

[Blue on Top]

Sort of back on topic (but I love the other stuff, too).

Cessna let go another 800ish in the last couple weeks.  70 or so engineers last week and nearly 800 more yesterday (I don't know the breakdown of the nearly 800).   

We joke about toothbrushes, but Cessna, Beechcraft and Stearman (Boeing) all built other things during the down times to keep good employees: furniture, hydraulics, bicycles, cars, etc.

[RLCarter]

Just now, Blue on Top said:

We joke about toothbrushes, but Cessna, Beechcraft and Stearman (Boeing) all built other things during the down times to keep good employees: furniture, hydraulics, bicycles, cars, etc.

Yamaha built a 4-wheeler back in the mid 80's called a Terra-Pro, there was a PTO out the back for deck mowers but they also offered several hydraulic driven implements that were drive by a Cessna pump 

[cliffy]

At one time recently there WAS a pilot shortage

Never to be seen again

[Blue on Top]

1 minute ago, cliffy said:

At one time recently there WAS a pilot shortage

Never to be seen again

I wouldn't bet on that.  Airplanes will get anti-COVID filters.

 

[Andy95W]

13 minutes ago, cliffy said:

At one time recently there WAS a pilot shortage

Never to be seen again

Cliffy has been around the biz a lot longer than me, but it seems this has been said before:

- post Vietnam, lots of military pilots

-mid1980's through early 1990’s

- post 9/11

- SARS

- retirement age changing from 60 to 65

- 2008 economic downturn

My guess for a new professional pilot like Alex- @Raptor05121 is that he's in a good spot- making money flying airplanes, building time.  I bet he has a job at a regional airline sometime in 2022, which is only about 6 months off his expected timeline.

[cliffy]

You have to take into account how many airplanes are being dropped from all the airlines and never coming back.  767s are going  747s are going, all the 380s are going, Many airlines are trimming their fleets by large numbers. Some are dropping the 737 MAX orders. All those airplanes gone mean less pilots needed. All have stopped all training for the most part. I don't think there is one airline with a new hire class in the offing for many months down line.  Many airlines are offering early retirements. 

Find me an airline actively hiring or training new hires. 

Airline business in the US is down by 80%

How many airlines are fluid enough to absorb the re-up costs with a flying public maybe 30% of what it was and now scared to fly because of COVID? And absorb the cost for many months to profitability?  Remember in this business break even might be load factors of 75% or 80% or more   Good ROIs might be 1 or 2% overall to show a profit. In the past competitive market how many were flying full flights at break even revenues? Been there done that. Flew MCI to MDW for months with every flight losing money due to competition from the  BIG 3 at the time. 

Can you break even with all the middle seats pulled out as SW is doing right now? How many airlines can survive that expense even short term? 

How many airlines have filed for bankruptcy right now or actually gone out of business? 

That's all pilot jobs gone. 

How many countries are closed down to tourists form other parts of the world?  How many states have quarantine policies against other states for travel between each state?  When will they open and to what restrictions going on down the time line?

On and on. It all has a ripple affect down line  If it starts back up they can't retrain all those out of currency fast enough to get back to near where they were preCOVID  There's not enough sim time available to do it. By now there's ground school requirements and not just re-qual. How many instructors now are out of qual and have to be retrained? 

Then look at what it will take to put all the parked airplanes back in the air? How many inspections have been passed over  in storage? How many time items have been passed? How many will pass as time parked goes on until re-up? How many mechanics have to be retrained for the re-up testings and inspections? 

I'm not trying to be a downer but its going to take a long time to get back to a pilot shortage and not just a year or two. 

[cliffy]

58 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

Cliffy has been around the biz a lot longer than me, but it seems this has been said before:

- post Vietnam, lots of military pilots

-mid1980's through early 1990’s

- post 9/11

- SARS

- retirement age changing from 60 to 65

- 2008 economic downturn

My guess for a new professional pilot like Alex- @Raptor05121 is that he's in a good spot- making money flying airplanes, building time.  I bet he has a job at a regional airline sometime in 2022, which is only about 6 months off his expected timeline.

And in all of the above there never was a pilot shortage for real!

Only in the last year or two has there been one in my career. 

[steingar]

This is a blip.  Nothing more.  By early 2021 there will be vaccines in distribution and the fear of the 'rona will abate.  The airlines will come back, those that are still with us.  And if they all go under someone will start new ones.  Folks need to travel.

[mike_elliott]

On 7/12/2020 at 4:45 PM, aviatoreb said:

Turns out good buddy your worthiness is not measured in watts.  Or in my case...in lbs or in watts/lbs....actually in any units from Physics.

 

The current barometer of a man's testosterone level is defined by the number of cylinders he owns, but new science is quickly replacing this standard with how many KWH he has. The new normal is changing everything. Fortunately, the grins from g' loadings remain constant regardless of #of wheels, spark plugs or KW's

[cliffy]

Why was it that the Star Trek crew never showed the effects of acceleration to multiple WARP speeds? 

[Jeff_S]

So, is the factory ever going to reopen, or what?

Any time I see a thread has gotten to over 10 pages I know it will no longer be about the original topic!

[aviatoreb]

Just now, Jeff_S said:

So, is the factory ever going to reopen, or what?

Any time I see a thread has gotten to over 10 pages I know it will no longer be about the original topic!

...I think the company, Mooney aircraft has some more life in it.  In one shape, form or another.

[mooniac15u]

17 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Or.... custom Ti frameset.  And all the other bits you see are Ti.  Anyway - bicycles, motorcycles, and Mooney's seem to be similarly built.  Tubes all welded together and sometimes bent/shaped.  With hangars and things hanging off them.

 

Are those S and S couplings on your frame?  Maybe the Mooney frame should have those for more convenient disassembly.

[EricJ]

50 minutes ago, cliffy said:

Why was it that the Star Trek crew never showed the effects of acceleration to multiple WARP speeds? 

They had inertial dampers!    It was very reliable technology, too.   

[aviatoreb]

12 minutes ago, mooniac15u said:

Are those S and S couplings on your frame?  Maybe the Mooney frame should have those for more convenient disassembly.

Yes, they are.  The general consensus is that the S&S coupling position is stronger than the bare tube that was cut through to place them.  They are actually the Ti version of those.  The only downside being the cost and they add 0.5lb (for a pair) to the over all frame weight.

[aviatoreb]

5 minutes ago, EricJ said:

They had inertial dampers!    It was very reliable technology, too.   

Hikaru Sulu was a very special pilot as he could hand fly that bad big boy at warp 9 on an ILS approach into most star systems down to CatIII mins.

Edited July 16, 2020 by aviatoreb

[mooniac15u]

17 minutes ago, EricJ said:

They had inertial dampers!    It was very reliable technology, too.   

The whole point of warp speed is getting somewhere fast without actually having a high velocity.  It's like taking a shortcut.  I think the inertial dampers were for impulse flight.

[aviatoreb]

13 minutes ago, mooniac15u said:

The whole point of warp speed is getting somewhere fast without actually having a high velocity.  It's like taking a shortcut.  I think the inertial dampers were for impulse flight.

You clearly haven't watched the crew, especially Kirk, on the bridge when the ship enters warp speed. Its very bumpy at Warp factor 9.  Ask any cadet from Start Fleet Academy that this is a basic fact.

[MooneyMitch]

I hope the Kerrville plant reopens and there will still be qualified individuals around to be re-employed there....... instead of all of those laid off going to the Austin Tesla plant! 

Now, we’ve returned to the original thread topic!  

[mike_elliott]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

You clearly haven't watched the crew, especially Kirk, on the bridge when the ship enters warp speed. Its very bumpy at Warp factor 9.  Ask any cadet from Start Fleet Academy that this is a basic fact.

Maybe Elon will replace the cold thrust system in the upcoming roadster with dilithium crystal warp engines

https://insideevs.com/news/350682/tesla-roadster-spacex-thrusters/

[MooneyMitch]

2 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

The current barometer of a man's testosterone level is defined by the number of cylinders he owns, but new science is quickly replacing this standard with how many KWH he has. The new normal is changing everything. Fortunately, the grins from g' loadings remain constant regardless of #of wheels, spark plugs or KW's

I thought male testosterone levels were measured by hair ( or lack thereof) on ones head !

[1980Mooney]

2 hours ago, steingar said:

This is a blip.  Nothing more.  By early 2021 there will be vaccines in distribution and the fear of the 'rona will abate.  The airlines will come back, those that are still with us.  And if they all go under someone will start new ones.  Folks need to travel.

Just like 2008 was a "blip".  For some a 10 year blip.  Many houses lost, careers stunted, some derailed.  In 2 1/2 months hundreds of thousands of airline and aviation employees will be laid off as the terms of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act expire.

Folks may want to travel...but most don't really need to travel.  Let's face it much of the need for business travel is hype to justify boondoggle and perk.  What an interruption like this does is cause companies and businesses to recognize that they can get by just fine with less business travel.  "Blips" like this accelerate permanent changes that were underway in any event both in behavior and the adoption of technology and automation to eliminate processes and employees.  Working from home and remote conferencing is not and will not ever be perfect but it has advanced more in the last 3 months than in the last 30 years - both in adoption of technology and change in behavior.

Vaccine or no vaccine, this "blip" will have a long term impact.  Government and company debts have swollen to historically unforeseen and unsustainable levels by any measure.  The stock market and economy has been sustained by Fed "liquidity" which is just another word for debt. Companies' business models don't work with the virus protection required (distancing of workers or customers, PPE, additional cleaning steps, etc.) and you will be seeing unprecedented losses reported next quarter.  State and city budgets are currently being devastated and the damage will be more apparent in the coming months as revenues decline and costs rise.  Universities are rethinking sports and in some cases eliminating programs.  Many small businesses have been quick to fail and liquidate but replacements will be slower to build from scratch. 

But you are right that the effects of this "blip" will dissipate.......at some point.

Edited July 16, 2020 by 1980Mooney

[aviatoreb]

Just now, mike_elliott said:

Maybe Elon will replace the cold thrust system in the upcoming roadster with dilithium crystal warp engines

https://insideevs.com/news/350682/tesla-roadster-spacex-thrusters/

No - Elon things he will replace the whole warp factor drive system thing with a solar powered lithium battery pack electric patent tesla system. https://www.tesla.com/solarpanels

[mike_elliott]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

No - Elon things he will replace the whole warp factor drive system thing with a solar powered lithium battery pack electric patent tesla system. https://www.tesla.com/solarpanels

kind of like whats on the space station, heh?

[Blue on Top]

There were also no bathrooms on the "Enterprise".