Factory Closed Down?

[Bob_Belville]

10 minutes ago, jetdriven said:

Perhaps an analysis of why Cirrus aircraft outsell Mooney 50:1 is in order. SE piston buyers seem to know something we don’t. 

Byron, surely Mooney as well as Beech, Piper, Cessna,... have done market research to understand why an upstart has been so successful. I am not privy to that data. And I don't think that those of you who credit their domination off the market with the innovation of the chute know the complete story either. 

I think your much repeated sales numbers is a valid piece of information. But it is an outcome. The causes of which is a more interesting question and surely pounding on the chute is simplistic. 

[jetdriven]

I didn’t mention parachute in this discussion.  But the vast majority of buyers bought that plane instead of this. And it’s not marketing of an inferior product and it’s not that they are stupid and like to flash the wingtip lights From 20’’ away.  Mooney is closed down now and it’s beucase they didn’t sell enough product into a market that clearly was big enough. Let’s discuss why. 

[Bob_Belville]

BTW, some of you probably have noticed that Jim Price, co-founder of Mooney Flyer, has posted on FB that a Kerrville manager told the owner of LASAR that the furlough was temporary while a restructuring is implemented.

As I suggested several days ago istm we'd do well to wait to see what the facts are.   

[RonM]

Not a smart move to give the appearance of going out of biz. That would chill sales.

[Ragsf15e]

3 hours ago, Bob_Belville said:

Urs, IMNSHO your generalizations are as bad as your spelling/spell check/typing! 

On the occasion of receiving the FAA's longevity award at the recent Mooney Summit I pointed out to that great assembly of safety conscience Mooney pilots, most of whom had their (flying) spouse with them, that my flying "career" began when my young bride, she was 23 at the time, gave me a learn-to-fly starter pack - 2 hours of instruction and a couple of books recommended by the flight school - for Xmas (1968). At the time Nancy was a stay at home mom with our 17 month old daughter. I do not think she'd ever been in any plane smaller than a Martin 404. And I do not believe that Nancy's attitude then and now is unique or even rare. Millions of people would love to fly even though they probably know there's some level of risk. I suspect most folks would be more interested in the pilot's experience than in the airplane's equipment. 

That some other non-pilots have an irrational fear of flying I do not doubt, flying is not everyone's cup of tea. But I don't believe for one minute that a parachute makes a scaredy cat who tenses up whenever there's a little turbulence into a confident passenger ready to take off into a 300' ceiling "knowing" that the 'chute makes everything okay. That's silly. 

Mooney has numerous challenges - sales, marketing, manufacturing, management, cultural issues (TX & China), etc., etc. Exactly zero of their problems would disappear if only their new products have a 'chute.   

Bob, I value your longevity and experience in aviation, but that may also be the reason you’re having trouble seeing Urs point.  I started flying in the 80s, my dad in the 70s, and I have my grandfathers leather helmet and scarf from his Stearman days in the 40s.  When I met my wife, our first date was a $100 hamburger trip in a beat up Cherokee.  Was it a test?  Yea, maybe.  She passed and we fly our kids all over the place in our 50 year old Mooney.  
Here’s the time though, peoples attitudes change through time.  There are many more middle age folks with $$ coming into our flight school wanting to learn in the Cirrus than those wanting to fly our well maintained, glass, cheaper Cessna.  Is all of that the chute?  No, but it’s definitely part of it.  Would it save Mooney to stick a chute on an Acclaim?  No, but Cirrus sells that chute and it works.  People learning today have a choice and they like the idea of the chute.  Maybe you don’t care.  Maybe I don’t sometimes, but to be honest, I’d prefer a chute when I fly across the Cascades to Seattle or when I fly IFR, but cost is a big factor for me.  If you assume people’s attitudes haven’t changed since the 70s or that today’s students all feel the same way as you, I think you’re making a big mistake.
 

[Igor_U]

44 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

Okay then, for everyone disagreeing with Urs and his "whimpy" comments:

Why exactly did Cirrus outsell Mooney 100:1 this year, despite the fact that it is slower, uglier and flies worse?

OK, I'll say it:

It's what market wants. 

[Airways]

Cirrus - chute + great handflying  = Cessna TTX.  And we all know how that ended...

 

There, I did the math ! 

[aviatoreb]

4 minutes ago, Airways said:

Cirrus - chute + great handflying  = Cessna TTX.  And we all know how that ended...

 

There, I did the math ! 

So carrying forward,

push the wing on top which is equivalent to diving both sides of the equation by the term TTX

Cessna  = (Cirrus - chute + great hand flying )/TTX

add 172 to both sides

Cessna 172 = 172+ (Cirrus - chute + great hand flying )/TTX

[Bob_Belville]

2 minutes ago, Ragsf15e said:

Bob, I value your longevity and experience in aviation, but that may also be the reason you’re having trouble seeing Urs point.  I started flying in the 80s, my dad in the 70s, and I have my grandfathers leather helmet and scarf from his Stearman days in the 40s.  When I met my wife, our first date was a $100 hamburger trip in a beat up Cherokee.  Was it a test?  Yea, maybe.  She passed and we fly our kids all over the place in our 50 year old Mooney.  
Here’s the time though, peoples attitudes change through time.  There are many more middle age folks with $$ coming into our flight school wanting to learn in the Cirrus than those wanting to fly our well maintained, glass, cheaper Cessna.  Is all of that the chute?  No, but it’s definitely part of it.  Would it save Mooney to stick a chute on an Acclaim?  No, but Cirrus sells that chute and it works.  People learning today have a choice and they like the idea of the chute.  Maybe you don’t care.  Maybe I don’t sometimes, but to be honest, I’d prefer a chute when I fly across the Cascades to Seattle or when I fly IFR, but cost is a big factor for me.  If you assume people’s attitudes haven’t changed since the 70s or that today’s students all feel the same way as you, I think you’re making a big mistake.
 

Thanks for your informed reply. You may well be right and I'm badly out of in touch. 

• Are the other players, Cessna, Piper, Beech,... planning on adding chutes? Those companies have been at least as hard hit by Cirrus as Mooney and would be about as close to shutting their doors as Mooney except that they've expanded into Jet A burners?
• Would you think the attitudes you see in your students are similar to the class of, what I'd assume are licensed, more astute, buyers of their own (next) airplane? 

[exM20K]

1 hour ago, Aviator said:

IMHO

Anyone who believes a four place, single engine airplane manufacturer can compete with Cirrus without a whole plane parachute is kidding themselves.

Really? Diamond has sold every plane they can make, and if they were available, I could sell a dozen DA20's today.  From the GAMA report, it looks like Cessna is doing fine, too.  

-dan

[N201MKTurbo]

FWIW

My wife says she feels safer flying with me in the Mooney than on the airlines.

The airlines don’t have parachutes either.

That being said whenever we walk by a Cirrus she says “let’s get one of those” Then I tell her what they cost and she says “too bad, they sure are cute and they look so comfy”  

She never mentions the parachute.

[tmo]

14 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Cessna 172 = 172+ (Cirrus - chute + great hand flying )/TTX

How does that equate to 400, Extra 400? ;-)

[Seth]

On 11/14/2019 at 9:06 AM, aviatoreb said:

I agree MT four blade props are beautiful - smoother - save weight on the nose - better ground clearance - ...

Someone should put one on a Mooney.

TKS is nice too.  ...alas no AC and you defn beat my useful load on that slow plain white airplane of yours.

Ok - smack aside - a nice paint job is fun - why do you have a plain white plane?  (a plain plane).

 

I’ll have one on my Missile soon too . . .

-Seth

[Ragsf15e]

12 minutes ago, Bob_Belville said:

Thanks for your informed reply. You may well be right and I'm badly out of in touch. 

• Are the other players, Cessna, Piper, Beech,... planning on adding chutes? Those companies have been at least as hard hit by Cirrus as Mooney and would be about as close to shutting their doors as Mooney except that they've expanded into Jet A burners?
• Would you think the attitudes you see in your students are similar to the class of, what I'd assume are licensed, more astute, buyers of their own (next) airplane? 

There’s one more factor to consider for piper, Cessna (trainers) and Diamond (the trainers)... the pilot shortage.  The students trying to fill our worldwide airline pilot shortage don’t have the cash to pay for expensive trainers and they aren’t planning on flying a SEP Cessna for the rest of their life.  They just want the hours, ratings etc and are willing to do that in whatever plane they can afford.  So those brands may have a market and customers to support their products.  Bonanzas and Mooneys aren’t trainers and people who buy them have different goals.  They buy them for long term family transport.  They care about the Chute and the Cirrus was designed around it as well as their superior marketing.  

[Ragsf15e]

21 minutes ago, Bob_Belville said:

Thanks for your informed reply. You may well be right and I'm badly out of in touch. 

• Are the other players, Cessna, Piper, Beech,... planning on adding chutes? Those companies have been at least as hard hit by Cirrus as Mooney and would be about as close to shutting their doors as Mooney except that they've expanded into Jet A burners?
• Would you think the attitudes you see in your students are similar to the class of, what I'd assume are licensed, more astute, buyers of their own (next) airplane? 

Honestly, there’s been quite a few people coming in , buying a 22T and then asking us to train them in it.  I’m not saying it’s a smart way to learn or efficient, but they do it.  Money be damned.  There are some other folks that use our SR20 for training and then purchase a 22T for themselves.  The transition is simple.  These folks want the whole package, car like interior, autopilot, chute, glass. The chute isn’t the whole thing, but it’s definitely part.

[steingar]

The only restructuring I could see that would resuscitate Mooney would be a well-heeled gullible buyer.  I suspect what closed it was its unprofitability, and I don't see a fix for that.

[M016576]

19 minutes ago, Seth said:

I’ll have one on my Missile soon too . . .

-Seth

Let me know the details, Seth- I’m interested too... maybe we can get a group buy going... @RogueOne

Edited November 15, 2019 by M016576

[Parker_Woodruff]

My wife is nervous about flying with me in Mooneys - she's ridden in the back on a couple flights with @smccray and @DonMuncy.

She has expressed great interest in the chute that Cirrus offers and asked why other manufacturers don't offer that.  But she also has been convinced that Mooney has a strong stucture.  But I can tell you that's a harder sell than a chute.

I like going places in planes.  And I don't care to go alone (I want wife and future kids to be along for the ride).  If/when an airplane is in the picture, it'll be one of these five: SR20, SR22, M20J, M20K, M20R.

And if someone hands me $1MM and says "go buy a new airplane", I'll be first in line for a Piper Seneca V.

[Aviator]

27 minutes ago, exM20K said:

Really? Diamond has sold every plane they can make, and if they were available, I could sell a dozen DA20's today.  From the GAMA report, it looks like Cessna is doing fine, too.  

-dan

How many has Diamond sold compared to Cirrus?

Cessna discontinued the 400 and I believe you can add a chute to the 172 and 182.

Anyway, it is just my opinion (and remains so).

 

[Parker_Woodruff]

Diamond is another example of “what could have been” in the trainer market. However, you can go slightly more optimistic for Diamond: “What could be”

[DXB]

Another article out, but scant new insight

https://www.planeandpilotmag.com/why-did-mooney-fail-its-simple-not/?fbclid=IwAR1N3ERdS5yQ77tff4R6g89skuuSw9qsiWNqMPCwydTvdNhry2w9BFBUV0A#.Xc8A57pOnYU

[afward]

Y'know, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced we're all being overly pessimistic and Mooney is "just fine" (for our purposes, anyway)...  90 employees still kept on, not making parts, and the "parts guy" says the rumors of their demise are greatly exaggerated?  Yeah, that sounds a _whole lot_ like retooling.  If so, that might be a good sign of things to come.

Of course, there are still lots of issues they need to deal with: Marketing, new phone system & FTE's to answer it, being properly competitive with Cirrus, etc.  Baby steps, though...

[steingar]

Just now, afward said:

Y'know, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced we're all being overly pessimistic and Mooney is "just fine" (for our purposes, anyway)...  90 employees still kept on, not making parts, and the "parts guy" says the rumors of their demise are greatly exaggerated?  Yeah, that sounds a _whole lot_ like retooling.  If so, that might be a good sign of things to come.

Of course, there are still lots of issues they need to deal with: Marketing, new phone system & FTE's to answer it, being properly competitive with Cirrus, etc.  Baby steps, though...

If that's all it is they've a really ham-fisted way of going about it.  Then again, it is Mooney.

[afward]

That I won't disagree with.

[jetdriven]

18 minutes ago, afward said:

Y

Of course, there are still lots of issues they need to deal with: Marketing, new phone system & FTE's to answer it, being properly competitive with Cirrus, etc.  Baby steps, though...

Their product isn’t selling.  They aren’t really improving it to make it sell. Marketing only goes so far. 
I asked Barry Hodkin, the CFO at the time, back in 2011 this. What’s the improvement plan? He said pray for an investor. I asked what if one doesn’t come?  Pray harder.  Hope is not a business model.