XM / ADSB Future Weather

[Fritz1]

Flying with XM and weather for 12 years now I think it is a tremendous tool and greatly contributes to aviation safety. The last frame is typically about 15-20 minutes behind the actual weather so when running the animation I always extrapolate what the next frame would look like to develop a mental image of the real weather. The weather channel uses the same nexrad data as XM weather and has a future radar function. How about displaying a computer extrapolated 10-20 min future frame as the last frame in the XM transmission? It would reflect real time weather better than a frame of which everybody knows that it is obsolete. Thoughts?

[LANCECASPER]

History is pretty certain, the future not so much. Not only might that approach cause someone to do something that they shouldn't based on a possibly incorrect prediction, it opens up Sirius/XM to a lawsuit every time someone who has a subscription flies into a thunderstorm. 

ADS-B and XM are tools to show you what we know things were like 10-15 minutes ago. Add to that a Stormscope that shows what's happening now and you can reasonably keep clear of the bad stuff while getting rained on a little.

@Scott Dennstaedt, PhD might have an educated opinion that shows how little I know.

 

[hammdo]

Remember when ForeFlight had this?

not there now…

https://blog.foreflight.com/2012/07/16/storm-tracks-now-available/

-Don

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

3 hours ago, Fritz1 said:

Flying with XM and weather for 12 years now I think it is a tremendous tool and greatly contributes to aviation safety. The last frame is typically about 15-20 minutes behind the actual weather so when running the animation I always extrapolate what the next frame would look like to develop a mental image of the real weather. The weather channel uses the same nexrad data as XM weather and has a future radar function. How about displaying a computer extrapolated 10-20 min future frame as the last frame in the XM transmission? It would reflect real time weather better than a frame of which everybody knows that it is obsolete. Thoughts?

There are a few issues.  First, both SiriusXM and FIS-B are highly bandwidth challenged.  Everything needs to be scheduled.  So adding anything to the pipe is not easy. Second, you wouldn't want an extrapolation given that this doesn't properly deal with evolution (or dissipation) which is especially important during the initial stages of storm cell development. You would want something predictive.

Currently FIS-B uses a 1 or 2 hr forecast for the cloud tops from the HRRR model, so it wouldn't be too difficult to add a forecast radar product.  This model is updated hourly and has a 15 minute time step forecast resolution which would be useful...and something I've asked SiriusXM to add for over 5 years.  Even so, these models usually take a couple of forecast hours to really "spin up" and develop a complete picture...so it really wouldn't be what you are looking for.

At one point there was a product that was developed by the NWS called the National Convective Weather Forecast that would have been useful. NCWF was terminated in 2018 for a variety of reasons.  But the best possibility is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) and Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) product.     

Here's the current initialization of the product:

And the forecast in 30 minutes...

Then 30 minutes after that...

And 30 minutes after that...

And then 4 hours after the initial time...

This would be much better suited as it provides a more reasonable prediction of what is likely to happen over the next couple of hours...thinking of this as a strategic product.  

 

[exM20K]

2 hours ago, hammdo said:

Remember when ForeFlight had this?

not there now…

https://blog.foreflight.com/2012/07/16/storm-tracks-now-available/

-Don

I believe that was the internet-based product. They lost that vendor/product, and the current one frankly, sucks. They know. I hope they better the current internet radar feed because it does suck.

-dan

[M20F]

Maybe one day XM/ADSB becomes tactical but not probably in my lifetime.  Even if it did nobody belongs within 20 NM’s of a cell in a small plane.  What exists today is great and allows navigation of embedded cells which 20yrs ago you were drinking a coke at a random FBO. 

Technology at this point is topping out we have LPV everywhere.  What could possibly be next and I can do that with a 25yr old radio. 

[LANCECASPER]

1 hour ago, M20F said:

What could possibly be next and I can do that with a 25yr old radio. 

It is amazing technology for sure.

Although a GNS430 or 530 could be approaching 25 years old,  they didn't get the WAAS upgrade until starting in December 2006. Of course Apollo introduced the CNX80 WAAS in 2003, so your point is well taken, even though we haven't been doing LPV for 25 years.

[MB65E]

XM is awesome. It’s always less scary live next to the thunderstorm than it shows on the screen. I hope it can stay like that. I flew around some popcorn today. One can always look out the window. 
-Matt

[M20F]

24 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

Although a GNS430 or 530 could be approaching 25 years old,  they didn't get the WAAS upgrade

My 430 is over 25yrs old and I use as #2, it got a $1500 upgrade for WAAS, let’s not split hairs. 

[Fly Boomer]

11 hours ago, MB65E said:

One can always look out the window. 

Pretty good idea for a variety of reasons.

[Fritz1]

Thank you everybody for the input, I use the weather channel future radar for the final stage of flight planning before I take off, would be nice to have one or two forecast frames, let's say 30 min forecast in flight. Will write letter to Sirius XM, let's see what they say.

[cliffy]

I just did my 3500 miles around the country VFR using ADSB Wx info only.  Never needed to go IFR for the entire trip.

Had some BIG t storms to fly around in IA and never felt less than safe. If going IMC I might have a different position though.

Felt it was quit adequate for VFR flying.

Plotting Wx movements and cell size in flight was easy  ADSB Wx works for my flying (VFR) 

I always used the 10-20-30 rule in big iron. If you're 10 miles away from a big boomer you're probably too close

If you are 20 miles away you are about right and 

Being 30 miles away you might be going too far out of your way. 

I treat my Mooney flying the same way. 

2 notes-

NOTHING  beats live Wx RADAR onboard if the plane has it  (bigger airplanes)

Using an app called raindar.com  on my phone before departures really helps with trip planning at the last minutes before takeoff. 

[Fly Boomer]

9 hours ago, cliffy said:

I always used the 10-20-30 rule in big iron. If you're 10 miles away from a big boomer you're probably too close

If you are 20 miles away you are about right and 

Being 30 miles away you might be going too far out of your way. 

I attended a NWS/NOAA weather seminar once, and learned that softball-size hail has been observed 20 miles from one of those boomers.  That's about the only thing I remember from the seminar, but it left a lasting memory.

[cliffy]

The hail comes out of them on the down wind side below the wind blown overhang

Its never a good idea to pass a real big boomer under the overhang even if you are 20 miles away. 

As I said, "30 miles and you MIGHT be going too far out of your way"

Experience is the best teacher, I've hit hail in a Boeing and don't want to do it again.