This market is a little nuts

[KB4]

Run out, analog J asking 184, and the new market standards must be low IF that’s a 7 outta 10 interior  

https://www.controller.com/listing/for-sale/215902333/1997-mooney-m20j-piston-single-aircraft

[Fly Boomer]

13 minutes ago, KB4 said:

Run out, analog J asking 184, and the new market standards must be low IF that’s a 7 outta 10 interior  

The fact that it's a very late model J (round windows) boosts the price some, and it does look extremely clean.  At least the pictures.  I guess he hasn't heard about the recession.

[LANCECASPER]

46 minutes ago, KB4 said:

Run out, analog J asking 184, and the new market standards must be low IF that’s a 7 outta 10 interior  

https://www.controller.com/listing/for-sale/215902333/1997-mooney-m20j-piston-single-aircraft

He's not far off on that price at all. Good luck finding another late serial number J for sale.

If I had my heart set on a J for my forever airplane I would make him an offer on this airplane. This is serial number 3408. The last one ever built was serial number 3431, meaning it has every airframe running upgrade Mooney put into the J model. It has the factory fiberglass interior side panels covered in ultraleather. All that the interior needs is a carpet kit and I would recover the seats.

True the panel is original, but that's not a terrible thing. At least it hasn't been chopped up a half dozen times over the years with bundles of tied off wires behind the panel. Fly it for a year or two until the next latest and greatest things comes out then do it once and it'll be great for many years.  Or if you want to keep costs down just replace the KLN89B GPS with a basic Garmin WAAS GPS and fly it with steam gauges.

The engine is high time meaning it's been flown regularly - good thing. You'll probably end up with some "Free" hours if you fly it on condition past TBO if you want. Then put a factory reman when you decide to and you have one of the best J models on the planet. If they were making these new in 2022 they would have to charge $750,000 at least.

All told if you bought it right and went crazy and did it 100% with carpet and re-do seats, new panel , tanks re-sealed, new paint, engine overhaul you'd have as close to a brand new J as exists today for well less than half of what a new one would be if it existed. Or flip side, the ad says bring offers, give him $170,000 for it and fly it and do things gradually as you own it. 

[FlyingDude]

How much would it have cost before covid?

[MooneyMitch]

3 hours ago, Fly Boomer said:

I guess he hasn't heard about the recession.

No recession says our leaders...... just substantial price increases overall and not purchasing as much.

[LANCECASPER]

2 hours ago, FlyingDude said:

How much would it have cost before covid?

160,000 - 165,000

[Eight8Victor]

On 8/2/2022 at 4:09 PM, LANCECASPER said:

160,000 - 165,000

How much house could you buy in rural America for 160k-165k before? What is that house worth today? 
That J seems like a good value to me.

 

[KB4]

I hope he gets his asking. Looks to be a good platform to do your own thing. Also makes 205J at only 100 more a great bargain for new buyer. 

[eman1200]

Yup, it’s a crazy market. About the only thing that plane has going for it is its age. Lots of planes with far better panels for a lot less. Run out engine. Nice plane, I’d like to be flying it but no it’s not worth the asking price. But neither are most planes for sale right now. There, I said it.

[Eight8Victor]

26 minutes ago, eman1200 said:but no it’s not worth the asking price. But neither are most planes for sale right now. There, I said it.

How about peanut butter? Gasoline? A steak dinner? 
What is a dollar worth today? How about next week? Next year?  
 

 

[Schllc]

7 hours ago, eman1200 said:

Yup, it’s a crazy market. About the only thing that plane has going for it is its age. Lots of planes with far better panels for a lot less. Run out engine. Nice plane, I’d like to be flying it but no it’s not worth the asking price. But neither are most planes for sale right now. There, I said it.

As discouraging as it is looking, the market says otherwise. 
I remember looking this up not too long ago and found that there are something like 173,000 registered pistons flying in the US today. 
Take out the flight school planes, hangar queens, and real forever planes and what is really left on the market… less that 100,000? 
It looks like at the rate they are getting destroyed, less new ones are made than lost every year, add that to the state of airline travel, Covid, inflation etc. 

Doesn’t take a lot of new buyers in the market to disrupt it like we have see. 
I for one do not predict airplane values to follow the market the way it has traditionally. 
I do think the economy and interest rates will affect it at some point, but it has already defied the trend so far…

the world is different, but I don’t think it’s going back to how it was in my lifetime. 

[thinwing]

If I was looking for a late model J..this would be the bird...reman the engine,keep the auto pilot ,install Garmin glass and a couple avidynes...most modern upto date J on the market......

[Fly Boomer]

On 8/3/2022 at 5:45 AM, Schllc said:

the world is different, but I don’t think it’s going back to how it was in my lifetime. 

Boy oh howdy, got that right!

[RLCarter]

It’s now a sellers market, just remember if you sell to upgrade you are now the buyer…..

[carusoam]

All markets are totally nuts!!!

The last recession…

unemployment was very high….

Houses and planes weren’t selling…

Prices couldn’t find a bottom…

 

Today…

Unemployment is still low and decreasing…

Houses can’t be built fast enough…

Interest rates are still very low…

The perfect M20J project, for a second time buyer, just appeared at full price…

Just add OH!

Go Mooney!

Best regards,

-a-

[FlyingDude]

10 hours ago, RLCarter said:

It’s now a sellers market, just remember if you sell to upgrade you are now the buyer…..

Unless you sell your house, move in with the inlaws and then buy a new house once the market cools down.

My in-laws would love having the grandkids around but they keep their house at 65F year round. I grew up without AC so summertime means 28-30C indoors and walking around in underwear... those are irreconcilable differences...

[A64Pilot]

It WAS a sellers market, but that has changed, due to the “transitory” inflation, and the not a recession, cause the same folks that said the inflation was transitory also say the economy is strong. 

A year ago houses in my neighborhood would sell before they were listed at asking or higher.

There are now I believe 6 houses for sale, none under contract. That’s due to two things, first the sellers are asking the ridiculous price of what they would have sold for last year, and the simple fact that people don’t have the money they used to, and interest rates are much higher. 6% historically isn’t bad, but I got 2% 18 months ago.

Retirees who’s wealth is mostly in stocks and bonds, have taken it in the shorts, some worse than others apparently. I’ve got neighbors trying, unsuccessfully to sell  aircraft

It’s going to get worse, before it gets better.

I believe that if you have cash, you can get a screaming deal on an airplane, a boat or beach house etc in a year. But just wait awhile, the bargains are just beginning

 

[RLCarter]

4 hours ago, FlyingDude said:

………..they keep their house at 65F year round. I grew up without AC so summertime means 28-30C indoors and walking around in underwear... those are irreconcilable differences...

65? Damn…… we keep ours at 72, not sure our 2 year old AC could get it down to 65 in the summer (101 today) and if it could I’m not sure I would want the electric bill. I can tell ya at 65°F I wouldn’t walk around in my drawers for long

[Danb]

COLD. BRRR 65*

[FlyingDude]

6 hours ago, RLCarter said:

65? Damn

We're in Michigan, summers can get hot but nothing like TX or AZ. His house is extremely well insulated, his power bill doesn't get too high. But he sure saves a ton on gas in the winter... We keep it 74-75F in the summer (to reduce humidity, mostly) and 72-73F in the winter. I wear a t-shirt now. But still in boxers...

[Fly Boomer]

13 hours ago, FlyingDude said:

they keep their house at 65F year round

Those people are either very young, or they use sweaters and blankets year-round.  

[Hank]

14 hours ago, FlyingDude said:

. . . . they keep their house at 65F year round.

1 hour ago, Fly Boomer said:

Those people are either very young, or they use sweaters and blankets year-round.  

My retired neighbors keep their house at 65° all the time too. They left town for a couple of weeks and raised the thermostat to 72 . . . . He never wears long pants or shoes, just shorts and flip flops, barefoot inside.

Me? I'm way too cheap for that!

[Fly Boomer]

25 minutes ago, Hank said:

My retired neighbors keep their house at 65° all the time too.

Well, maybe my metabolism is different but, this time of year, I start the day at 80 and, depending on activity, work my way down to 79 or 78.

[ArtVandelay]

Well, maybe my metabolism is different but, this time of year, I start the day at 80 and, depending on activity, work my way down to 79 or 78.

As usual, Im average: 76°.

Just got a notice, my electric rates are going up 40%!

[M20F]

Most folks buy planes the same way they buy lake houses.  With a loan.  The economy is slowing and interest rates are rising.  Next year is a cash buyers market.