201LM?

[Mcstealth]

Limited Edition?

[LANCECASPER]

No, LM would be Limited Mediton  . lol

It's a Lean Machine, a 201 for $99,000 with a stripped down IFR package, including a KAP100.

https://www.aviationconsumer.com/used-aircraft-guide/mooney-201-m20j-2/

 

Edit: I was $100 off in price. A small article in Nov. '85 Flying Magazine within another article comparing a normal 201 to a Cessna Skylane.

These came out while I was working toward my private and I dreamed about owning one. UND on the field where I was taking lessons bought one or two for IFR trainers.

[Mcstealth]

This is in the Dugosh hangar. I've not seen this before. Lean Machine, really? 

[aviatoreb]

6 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

Lean Machine, a 201 for $99,000 with a stripped down IFR package

https://www.aviationconsumer.com/used-aircraft-guide/mooney-201-m20j-2/

WOW - that is amazing that the airplane market has resulted in new machines increasing almost 10 fold in cost since 1985.

[ZuluZulu]

Yet another winner from the marketing geniuses at Mooney. /s

[LANCECASPER]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

WOW - that is amazing that the airplane market has resulted in new machines increasing almost 10 fold in cost since 1985.

If that price blows your mind . . try this from just 5 years earlier:

 

 

In case that's a little hard to read . . . 

[Hank]

C'mon, ya'll are making me cry!!

[aviatoreb]

2 hours ago, LANCECASPER said:

If that price blows your mind . . try this from just 5 years earlier:

 

 

In case that's a little hard to read . . . 

Holy moly.  Yeah makes me want to cry too.  
 

[Will.iam]

Everything was cheaper back then. When we were about to start building our house with cash, dad came home and surprised us with a brand new 1977 201. They had to borrow from the bank the money dad used to buy the airplane to start building the house. Interest rates were over 10% in those years but my parents paid off the 30 year loan in 7 years, total cost including interest $77,000. The house is now worth $450,000 but Mooney 201 in general are under $200,000 so not as much appreciation as a house apparently. If he had only followed forest gump and bought apple stock, who knew?

[carusoam]

Mr. Gump was accidentally brilliant… The price on AAPL hit a high point only a few weeks ago…

The movie was released in 1994…

A decade ago there was a thread about how to pay for a Mooney…. This was the first time I had seen the Gump analysis…

28yrs later… that is still good advice for a pop culture movie… 

 

Things are changing quickly lately…

Inflation has begun to rear its ugly head…

Interest rates are starting to increase…

And Covid is adding to the mixture of tough finances…

 

Paying for stuff…. Even determining the price of things… gets more challenging in times of inflation…

 

One thing has changed…

Kind of like weather models have improved…. Finance models have improved as well… hopefully the guys with their finger on the interest rate button have a really powerful computer…. The machine that makes their ‘dot plots’

With the inflation of the 70s, came the oil embargo, which included fuel shortages and gas lines…. And odd/even days to get gasoline…

Fortunately, gasoline doesn’t have to come from the Middle East anymore… and cars don’T have to be powered by ICEs….

The fed reserve  has a dual mandate… employ everybody, and price stability….

Part of employ everybody… has to get past the Covid challenges as well…

Price stability is a little bit more challenging…

 

As for the Lean Machine… it was lovingly known as the stripper…. It had all the costly items removed to lower the sales price… great for advanced trainers.

The LM has a modern Long Body equivalent…. Aka the Eagle…

 

The cool thing about the LM and the Eagle… For a few dollars more… they can be brought up to the modern standards of forever-planes….

Get in the door with a Mooney you can afford… then upgrade when able…

Anything 20-30 years old is looking to be refreshed anyways…

Plan to add a color stripe or two, and change the tail number…   

Go Mooney Marketing!

 

PP thoughts only, not a financial engineer…

Best regards,

-a-

[carusoam]

8 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

WOW - that is amazing that the airplane market has resulted in new machines increasing almost 10 fold in cost since 1985.

Oddly, the price of aluminum doesn’t seem to have done more than double over the last 25 years…

Most of that change came recently….  Near reaching peak values last seen in 2007…  expected to begin declining some…

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/aluminum

As the commodity increases in value… so do the supplier companies…

Alcoa’s stock has gone from under $10 to just over $60 over the last two years….

 

Quirky financial tidbits that are a siren song to get smart people to try their hand at building airplanes…

Go Jonny!

-a-

[0TreeLemur]

9 hours ago, carusoam said:

Oddly, the price of aluminum doesn’t seem to have done more than double over the last 25 years…

 

Look instead at attorney hourly rates, court awards, and insurance rates for the drivers.  Compared to those, the value of the Al in a Mooney is an incidental cost.

[aviatoreb]

4 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

Would be amazing if it was true.  You are comparing the original prices of a stripped down M20J mid-body, 4 cylinder model that is barely IFR with a single axis autopilot to a turbocharged intercooled 6 cylinder 310HP 2 door long-body M20V Acclaim with TKS and A/C and even then they never sold for $989,000.  The more justifiable comparison would be with a base no-frills SR20 or a DA-40XLT.  Both are less than $500,000 and that includes dual G1000 NXi and GFC700 autopilot.

OK - so that is 5 fold increase.

Let's compare it to the median home price. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Q4 1985 - $86,800

Q3 2021 - $404,700

That is a 4.7 fold increase

So another way to look at it that the increase in new plane prices, on a comparable airframe, have basically been rising the same as homes on average nationwide during this time.  Of course if you want more capability (speed, interior space, service ceiling, "auto" avionics, GW, etc,) in that airframe (perhaps the "new-norm) then the price has indeed risen faster.

 

 

I'm just speaking in order's of magnitude.  5 is "of 1 order of magnitude" on a log scale.  Roughly 10.  If its 4.7 or 7 times in my roughing it out speak - I would call it an order of magnitude or roughly 10. Saying its 4.7 is artificial precision in my opinion.

I think an M20J-LM today would cost more than 4.7 times $99 if produced today.  We have had this discussion around and around, but I think it could be argued it would cost 600 or 650 or more.  It is more labor and parts in the process than a DA40.

I think a major factor besides liability insurance is that Mooney, and lots of other companies have lost the benefit of economy of scales.

All that said - these airplanes seem to be way more expensive today new (virtual since a M20J-LM is not available) than inflation over 36 years would suggest.  I just looked up and it should be 2.59x not 5-7x.

By the way, I used to own a "DA40-LM" effectively.  I owned Diamond DA40 N805ER which was an Embry Riddle trainer configured without autopilot.  Steam gauge 2003, Lycoming 360.  I loved it!  Sold it in 2010 I think and bought this Mooney.  (This is just an aside - and not meaning anything other than you mentioned DA40 which is a decent comparison, but the construction methods are entirely different and they still enjoy economy of scale a bit more than Mooney did recently).

 

[Danb]

I purchased a new 201J-LM in 1988, One of last made Henry Weber mentioned it was equipped like a non lean machine upgraded avionics Kap 150 autopilot with altitude hold upgraded interior etc. Henry actually couldn’t believe they sold it as a LM, cost was $115,000 I subsequently sold it in 2006 to buy my Bravo, miss the efficiency was a great plane.

 

[Danb]

[LANCECASPER]

13 minutes ago, Danb said:

I purchased a new 201J-LM in 1988, One of last made Henry Weber mentioned it was equipped like a non lean machine upgraded avionics Kap 150 autopilot with altitude hold upgraded interior etc. Henry actually couldn’t believe they sold it as a LM, cost was $115,000 I subsequently sold it in 2006 to buy my Bravo, miss the efficiency was a great plane.

 

https://flightaware.com/resources/registration/N5817T

It looks like the guy who bought it in 2006 is still flying it. A 2 owner 1988 Mooney is pretty rare.

[aviatoreb]

19 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

Would be amazing if it was true.  You are comparing the original prices of a stripped down M20J mid-body, 4 cylinder model that is barely IFR with a single axis autopilot to a turbocharged intercooled 6 cylinder 310HP 2 door long-body M20V Acclaim with TKS and A/C and even then they never sold for $989,000.  The more justifiable comparison would be with a base no-frills SR20 or a DA-40XLT.  Both are less than $500,000 and that includes dual G1000 NXi and GFC700 autopilot.

OK - so that is 5 fold increase.

Let's compare it to the median home price. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Q4 1985 - $86,800

Q3 2021 - $404,700

That is a 4.7 fold increase

So another way to look at it that the increase in new plane prices, on a comparable airframe, have basically been rising the same as homes on average nationwide during this time.  Of course if you want more capability (speed, interior space, service ceiling, "auto" avionics, GW, etc,) in that airframe (perhaps the "new-norm) then the price has indeed risen faster.

 

 

I reread your analysis.  Houses have gone up for sure!  I am no economist so to figure what is the actual inflation rate, across the board, all I can do is google-fu look up the asserted total rate from whatever some economists posted.

I remember my grandfather who used to describe how when he was a kid, his mom would give a nickel to his older brother and he and they would go watch a movie at the theater.  I figured, wow, that must have been a very long time ago.  He must be old!  Now who is old?  Me!

[aviatoreb]

On 1/13/2022 at 6:14 PM, Will.iam said:

Everything was cheaper back then. When we were about to start building our house with cash, dad came home and surprised us with a brand new 1977 201. They had to borrow from the bank the money dad used to buy the airplane to start building the house. Interest rates were over 10% in those years but my parents paid off the 30 year loan in 7 years, total cost including interest $77,000. The house is now worth $450,000 but Mooney 201 in general are under $200,000 so not as much appreciation as a house apparently. If he had only followed forest gump and bought apple stock, who knew?

When I was 14 or so in the early 1980s I mowed lawns all summer (10 lawns I would mow for people - boy that was a hot sweaty job in Maryland with a push mower with not even a powered wheels) and I saved up and bought an apple.  An apple II before the plus (it was integer basic based instead of the floating point basic that came in the plus).  But I also learned about stocks and I had a few thousand dollars more from mowing lawns and I wanted to buy apple stock because I thought apple was neat.  My father talked me out of buying stock in general, and specifically not in that upstart volatile computer company.  Ah well - what do we think that 2.5k or so worth of 1982 or 83 apple stock would be worth today?!!

[Danb]

30 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

https://flightaware.com/resources/registration/N5817T

It looks like the guy who bought it in 2006 is still flying it. A 2 owner 1988 Mooney is pretty rare.

Yep older guy, CFI I think he does or did some MAPA events as one of the instructors in S Florida. Plane was perfect in 2006, never any real problems except for vacuum pumps.

[Bravoman]

48 minutes ago, Danb said:

I purchased a new 201J-LM in 1988, One of last made Henry Weber mentioned it was equipped like a non lean machine upgraded avionics Kap 150 autopilot with altitude hold upgraded interior etc. Henry actually couldn’t believe they sold it as a LM, cost was $115,000 I subsequently sold it in 2006 to buy my Bravo, miss the efficiency was a great plane.

 

Even in today’s dollars that’s something less than 300k. They would fly off the shelf if they could be purchased new for that now.

[LANCECASPER]

41 minutes ago, Bravoman said:

Even in today’s dollars that’s something less than 300k. They would fly off the shelf if they could be purchased new for that now.

I agree. That was a good move back then - Texas and other parts of the country had a downturn in the economy starting in 86.  Mooney kept the workers building airplanes so they would still have a workforce. It gave them a bigger lineup to choose from. Cirrus still does that, trying to get the lower end of the market as well, keeping the SR20 in their lineup. People start shopping for the lower end and then begin to justify going to the next model up. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people who bought 205s and 252s back then started looking at the Lean Machine and bumped up.

[Will.iam]

3 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

When I was 14 or so in the early 1980s I mowed lawns all summer (10 lawns I would mow for people - boy that was a hot sweaty job in Maryland with a push mower with not even a powered wheels) and I saved up and bought an apple.  An apple II before the plus (it was integer basic based instead of the floating point basic that came in the plus).  But I also learned about stocks and I had a few thousand dollars more from mowing lawns and I wanted to buy apple stock because I thought apple was neat.  My father talked me out of buying stock in general, and specifically not in that upstart volatile computer company.  Ah well - what do we think that 2.5k or so worth of 1982 or 83 apple stock would be worth today?!!

Ah it’s not just the buying regret you have to tend with but also the selling remorse. When apple was in trouble and steve jobs was hired back on i bought 330 shares at $15 per share. It was $5000 worth when including my trading fees. When i made triple my money at $15000 i sold it and was very happy at the time with getting more than double my money. If i had only read about and learned from warren buffet i would not have to work today. I didn’t need that money i just wanted to lock in my profits. Iconically when i read Steve Job’s autobiography book only then did i realize why the stock was so low at the time as he said when he got on board the company was operating at a loss and had 6-months before it would be bankrupt. Man was a turnaround that every CEO can only dream of. 

[aviatoreb]

2 minutes ago, Will.iam said:

Ah it’s not just the buying regret you have to tend with but also the selling remorse. When apple was in trouble and steve jobs was hired back on i bought 330 shares at $15 per share. It was $5000 worth when including my trading fees. When i made triple my money at $15000 i sold it and was very happy at the time with getting more than double my money. If i had only read about and learned from warren buffet i would not have to work today. I didn’t need that money i just wanted to lock in my profits. Iconically when i read Steve Job’s autobiography book only then did i realize why the stock was so low at the time as he said when he got on board the company was operating at a loss and had 6-months before it would be bankrupt. Man was a turnaround that every CEO can only dream of. 

Exactly - that is what most people would do!  In fact - if I had purchased in 1983 - I think it has gone up about 175 from .1 to 175.  So my $2500 lawn mowing sweat and tears money then would be worth be worth today $4.25M!  But I doubt I would have been courageous enough to keep riding it.  I bet I would have cashed out by 1990 when it was worth .3 for a tidy profit of 3x and taken my tidy some of $7500 and purchased some pizzas for all my friends!  And I didn't buy Tesla 3 years ago when I KNEW it was a good idea.  And I can tell you all sorts of other stuff I didn't do if we had about 10 pages.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/stock-price-history

[Will.iam]

The other thing that’s hard to calculate was the stock was splitting 2 for 1 faster than a new baby embryo. As it seemed apple wanted to keep the price under $100 per share back then for what ever reason.  I don’t remember how many shares i sold. Only that i bought in at $15 per share and threw $5k at it. And once my e-trade account said it was worth $15k i cashed out. 

[carusoam]

Having been around the block….

I love Mr. Buffet… he didn’t want to invest in things he didn’t understand like computer products… when he did, he bought IBM….

Today, he is a very larger share holder of AAPL… his latest purchase level made the news the other day….

 

It is really tough to determine that a company can continue to grow through all the changes that time throws our way….

Sony invented the Walkman… brought on the discman, and failed to go to the next step… the iPod isn’t that revolutionary…. If you were already building the all digital, battery powered, portable, discman….

 

Tesla is another one of those buy on faith kind of things…. The PE ratio and any other measurement is way out there compared to any other car company…. And the competition is coming on strong… there is a GM car advertising its driver assistance and hands free driving… seen on TV today.

 

 

Like buying a pre-flown plane…

Some people like to inspect the prior owner more than the plane….  Kind of like learning about the CEO before buying the company… CFO is like knowing the owner’s close family…

 

In the case of Apple… it really was Steve Jobs… when removed… the company was failing at the one thing they needed… innovation… the company wasn’t going to survive by cutting operating expenses… MBA 101…

Mr. Jobs got to prove that again after his return….

 

Who can continue to hold through the tough times… you are up several fold, and your chosen CEO has serious health issues… do you hang out to find out if the replacement is any good?  (Probably not…)

Of course while you waffle over this decision… the analyst community is adding to the noise….  New guy isn’t Mr. Jobs… he can’t be successful…. Blah blah blah…

 

So…. Are you buying Tim Cook or Elon Musk or Johnny Ives? 
 

Finance seems to be a lot like hiring a Good Mooney CFII….  When it’s serious… pay for professional help… finding the right help to fit your needs is pretty challenging…

PP thoughts only, not a finance guy at all…

Best regards,

-a-