New Mooney Owner in 29 Palms

[fantom]

Guys, we all love Mooney, but......

They were sucking wind selling 700K planes when the economy was good, as the economy slowed down so did sales. Mooney has had a difficult time selling planes for some time, no doubt in part to revolving owner issues.

Back when I bought my J in 1994, the people at the factory told me they were lucky to be breaking even on the J, and were hoping to make a profit on the Bravo and the coming Ovation. They also told me that then, basically 1993, that production took about 3,500 man hours for ANY plane. The math for a profitable company just doesn't add up. Probably one reason no "smart" investors have stepped up.

If Mooney ever gets back in the business of making planes, they will be much different than the planes we're flying. As others have said, I think they have to develop the spare parts business, and get much more competitive with reasonable pricing of mods to current Mooneys. The economy, the political climate, business economics 101, reduced numbers of new pilots and new GA mechanics for that matter, and ponderous FAA GA regulations, sadly all work against new planes coming out of Kerville anytime soon.

[fantom]

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[KSMooniac]

Quote: orangemtl

In a perfect world, Mooney would be taken in by a group of solvent pilots/engineers, and revived with cost effective design of a saleable product.  I've seen the "We just can't do it for less than $10 million" mentality more than once.  Sometimes they're right. Sometimes, they just lack vision.

Perhaps, come January 2013, the economic landscape will have changed in the US. I think there's some sort of election coming up in a year or so, last I heard...

[Cruiser]

According to the info I got at the MAPA convention, the factory will not start up until they can build a years worth of planes. Hiring and training workers without a committment to keep them employed would not be good or smart on Mooney's part.

I assume that means orders with deposits on those planes. The economy is going to get alot better than it is now to have enough buyers willing to put down $25k and wait for over a year to get their plane.

 

In other words, I don't see it happening.

[orangemtl]

KSMooniac,

Your experience in the field cannot be trumped.  Is it possible that production cost improvement, e.g. robotic welding as mentioned by Hank, and other similar efficiency measures would allow for a less costly alternative?

One of the central costs in production is the amortization of fixed costs over the number of units produced. It's one reason why automobiles have so many engineering updates at relatively low cost, while lesser upgrades are so prohibitively pricey in aviation:  a $5 million investment in an upgrade divided by 1 million Fords is minor; divided by 500 Cessnas, not so minor.

This is largely a thought exercise for me, and I suspect for all of us. It is, however an interesting one.  Could Mooney, for example produce a new 4cyl Mooney on the earlier airframe with modern avionics and some tweaking of the airframe (new style wingtips, electric flaps and gear) w/o crushing regulatory cost?  Clearly, there are plenty of people willing to fly 1960's-70's airframes with a mishmash of upgrades. Not to belabor the LSA discussion, but similarly: if some pilots will drop $85,000 on a Cub lookalike or over $100k on an aluminum Luscombe, why not $200k for an up-to-date short fuselage Mooney, with a modern windshield and Aspen glass panel?

Perhaps I am utterly unrealistic. I've been called worse. I wonder aloud exactly how 'modern' one could redesign, say a C or D model while staying within tolerable regulatory expense.  Any of the C or D owner/tinkerers care to weigh in on the question?

[jetdriven]

Michael. I think the cost to build a "new 201" is going ot be close the 3500 man hours it takes to build an Acclaim, and the break even cost is going to be well above the selling price.  Someone at the MAPA convention when Bill Wheat was giving his talk, said "lets bring back the 201 and sell it for 400K, who would buy one".   No hands went up.

[carusoam]

Michael,

Joining you in the thinking out old category...

The inevitable market test starts with someone buying up old airframes and reworking/refurbishing them with modern magic.

It only takes a few hundred Planes for a small shop to make a living.  They need the airframes (run out for lowest cost), customers, and enough modern magic to make it a business.

A new engine, paint, instruments and interior.  It will look like something Jezzie has slaved or the j of Vref.  Both excellent examples of modernized, old style machines.  Check their respective photo galleries.

Brand new, but an airframe that has some age in it.  Probably with a warrantee.

I believe there is a shop that does this in California or the Midwest.  Not mooney specific, but complete refurb, nonetheless.  Pristineairplanes.com?

Once that business is underway, it is a stepping off point to marketing new, old style, airframes.

Building new airframes is the FAA topic that is widely covered in this and other threads.

Best regards,

-a-

 

[carusoam]

Michael...

Go to pristinairplanes.com  You can order up an old mooney anyway you want with these folks....

Mooney 201,231,252 Place Your Order Today!!

[orangemtl]

Good point.  There's no chance of selling such a plane at $400k.

Is the enormous labor cost largely due to the custom nature of the airframe?  I know the interiors were custom made; I walked through the upholstery dept and pretty much the entire place when I purchased 730ML. While interior costs are scarcely the major factor in the pricetag, it's a perfect example. I treasure knowing that every bit of my aircraft is truly custom: more so than any Ferrari in the past 35 years, for example.  I have appreciation, however for the leather interior in my automobile as well.  Was it made inhouse by Land Rover or farmed out? Don't know, nor care. 

Only farming out elements of production or subassemblies would address this issue, and that might not prove palatable to company or consumer. We'll probably never know.

[orangemtl]

I think I 'stepped on' carusoam's response while writing mine. Your thinking is exactly what was just going through my head. I'm going to check out the 'new old Mooney' site, if only for my entertainment.

A company in Belgium was taking Jaguar XK 3.8's (1959-66, or so) and updating their A/C, engines, sound insulation and suspension, while leaving the appearance largely unchanged.  They were apparently popular in a small niche---but I've not seen them still in business (I was thinking of getting one a few years back). A cautionary example, where a gret idea for a great product was slapped down by market realities.

[jetdriven]

The one thing about a Mooney I like so much is everything is curved, and a lot of it is compound curved. See that giant, hard, angle change in a Cessna, RV,  or Cherokee on the fuselage sidewall after the wing?   Not there on a Mooney, its a smooth transition everywhere.  But with that, is many more man hours or labor to build one.

[carusoam]

Maybe not exact...  Some more, some less, but a starting point...based on recollection of other threads at MooneySpace:

Run out airframe: 30k

Paint: 10k

Interior: 10k

Reman Engine: 30k

Basic IFR Panel: 50k

Putting it all back together: 2 guys, nearly 1 year: 100k (75k in Mexico or E. Europe, 15k in China)

Total: $230k

Glass Cockpit, high end paint, ice protection or turbocharging are extra.....

Discounts for buying multiples (instrument packages, Engines, paint jobs and interiors) are applied to the bottom line.

Sales costs and profit margin are not added in to these figures.

An F would probably cost the same as a J to send through this process.  The difference would be the run-out aiframe cost.

Best regards,

-a-

[KSMooniac]

Quote: orangemtl

KSMooniac,

Your experience in the field cannot be trumped.  Is it possible that production cost improvement, e.g. robotic welding as mentioned by Hank, and other similar efficiency measures would allow for a less costly alternative?

One of the central costs in production is the amortization of fixed costs over the number of units produced. It's one reason why automobiles have so many engineering updates at relatively low cost, while lesser upgrades are so prohibitively pricey in aviation:  a $5 million investment in an upgrade divided by 1 million Fords is minor; divided by 500 Cessnas, not so minor.

[KSMooniac]

I like the idea of updating a J or K to modern specs and think that will be an even more viable idea as the fleet continues to shrink.  There are a couple of companies doing it today with bizjets (early Citations and Beechjets) by replacing life-limited components and putting modern engines/avionics onto the legacy airframes.  One thing to keep in mind is that the sales price of a refurb J/K will likely be "capped" by a newer used Mooney that continues to depreciate.  Early Ovations are already below $200k now, but without a G1000 panel of course.  Below the $200k price point, buyers will likely be more conscious of operating costs (ie fuel burns, turbo maintenance, etc) whereas they aren't as worried when buying a $500k new plane IMO.  If that is the case, then there *might* be a market going forward for a $150-$200k refurbed J or K even if one could buy a '95 Ovation for the same money...it will be interesting to watch!

It would be an intriguing idea to run a business case on such a venture.  I could see doing all new instrument panels from scratch, built in lots of 10 for example, so that the components could be purchased at a discount and assembled on a bench instead of being updated while lying upside down in the airplane with a flashlight in your mouth!  Using technology like the Fast Stack or whatever that is called could save a lot of labor on the refurb if the old stuff is completely removed.

Interiors could be done in a similar fashion using the newer composite panels, and seats could be rebuilt in advance by starting with a couple sets of salvage seats, and then taking the donor airframe's seats out for use in the next plane.  Cowls could be similarly refurbed so that they fit correctly and don't move.

I wish the Mooney factory would have tried a program like this in earnest.  For a while they were promoting interior refurbs with the new side panels and seat covers, but the cost was crazy-high IMO and I don't know if they got any takers.  Many of their prices boggled my mind since they were working in a low-cost area with an old plant that was likely paid-off long ago.  

[smccray]

If I were buying Mooney the approach mentioned above is exactly what I would do- establish a factory service center that's capable of providing all services we need on our planes- paint, interior, avionics and engines.  I would probalby outsource/ JV with a high end overhaul shop the engine work, but the factory should be able to do the rest of the work in house.  I see the Kestrel Aeroworks / Beech Bonanza XTRA programs as a perfect example of what I'd be looking to do.

I know for a fact (like many of you) that Mooney is being shopped.  Numbers I've heard are a little crazy.

[KSMooniac]

Quote: smccray

 

I know for a fact (like many of you) that Mooney is being shopped.  Numbers I've heard are a LOT crazy.

[smccray]

Quote: KSMooniac

FIFY.  

[orangemtl]

The refurbishment angle would be most viable, of course for the company itself, i/o a standalone. They could no doubt warranty the aircraft (sort of like the Certified Preowned Program with BMW, or Lexus, or the like); the ability to reman the necessary parts would be an advantage as well. What could be better than to bring your tired C model to them, and walk out (some tens of thousands of $ later) with a rejuvenated, glass panel plane with a freshly overhauled engine, new wingtips, and fresh paint?

Fascinating to know the the company is being shopped. I'd love to make a small fortune buying and running Mooney. I'd need to start with a large fortune first, however...

[Hank]

Quote: orangemtl

I'd love to make a small fortune buying and running Mooney. I'd need to start with a large fortune first, however...

[PilotDerek]

I realize my thread got hijacked but that is ok. Here are some photos of my plane in her old home. I am currently having some panel work done (adding an audio panel, Fuel Flow, avionic master, and updating wiring/breakers). I will post the after picture of the panel once completed.

[carusoam]

Derek,

Fuel flow is a great idea.  If you have the opportunity, consider integrating the data with your future engine monitor and gps.  At least consider what it takes to add this data for best benefit.  It may only take a wire here or there.

 

It is good to have EGT/CHT data logged that includes the fuel flow.

It is good to have fuel required to destination calculations.

 

Congrats again,

-a-

 

[PilotDerek]

Quote: carusoam

Derek,

Fuel flow is a great idea.  If you have the opportunity, consider integrating the data with your future engine monitor and gps.  At least consider what it takes to add this data for best benefit.  It may only take a wire here or there.

 

It is good to have EGT/CHT data logged that includes the fuel flow.

It is good to have fuel required to destination calculations.

 

Congrats again,

-a-

 

[Urs_Wildermuth]

Derek,

congratulations, she looks great!

Re the panel, I agree something like the JPI 930 is a good idea. I have a Shadin fuel computer coupled to  a GNS430 in my panel, which gives me fuel flow and fuel to/at destination. Good stuff, the plane came with it.

Working on upgrading the autopilot now plus possibly an Aspen as the DG is starting to deteriorate and I only have the wing levler (PC).

[orangemtl]

Love the paint scheme. We'll have to get a photo of 2930L and 730ML side by side one of these days, in 29P or at KHII.  

Let me know if you're working on the plane in the next few weekends, and I'll take a hop over to say 'hi'.                

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PilotDerek]

Quote: orangemtl

Love the paint scheme. We'll have to get a photo of 2930L and 730ML side by side one of these days, in 29P or at KHII.  

Let me know if you're working on the plane in the next few weekends, and I'll take a hop over to say 'hi'.           

 

 

Sounds like a plan. If I can escape for a long lunch I've been planning to fly out there. I heard they have a bbq joint on the field. Any good? I'll give you a call when I plan on heading out there.