Blue on Top Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 57 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said: There is a market for Js, but it’s being satisfied by the abundance of used Js. For $200,000 you can have a really nice forever J,K....less if go to the short bodies. @ArtVandelay Isn't this like saying there is a market for Accords, but it's being satisfied by an abundance of used Accords for $5K? People like new. Yes, there is a price difference, and the difference is larger in airplanes than in automobiles. But, I don't believe that comparison is apples to apples. In other words, I think we are comparing a used Acord to a new Lamborghini. Instead wouldn't it be better to compare a used J to a new, updated J? A $200K, 40 year old, refurbished J to a brand new, updated, safety-enhanced, $500K "J" would be more apples to apples? Many people buy (or lease) new cars every couple/few years because they like new … and don't want to mess with maintenance. Airplanes are no different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtVandelay Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 [mention=11849]ArtVandelay[/mention] Isn't this like saying there is a market for Accords, but it's being satisfied by an abundance of used Accords for $5K? People like new. Yes, there is a price difference, and the difference is larger in airplanes than in automobiles. But, I don't believe that comparison is apples to apples. In other words, I think we are comparing a used Acord to a new Lamborghini. Instead wouldn't it be better to compare a used J to a new, updated J? A $200K, 40 year old, refurbished J to a brand new, updated, safety-enhanced, $500K "J" would be more apples to apples? Many people buy (or lease) new cars every couple/few years because they like new … and don't want to mess with maintenance. Airplanes are no different. You can’t build a low volume Accord. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1001001 Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blue on Top said: @ArtVandelay Isn't this like saying there is a market for Accords, but it's being satisfied by an abundance of used Accords for $5K? People like new. Yes, there is a price difference, and the difference is larger in airplanes than in automobiles. But, I don't believe that comparison is apples to apples. In other words, I think we are comparing a used Acord to a new Lamborghini. Instead wouldn't it be better to compare a used J to a new, updated J? A $200K, 40 year old, refurbished J to a brand new, updated, safety-enhanced, $500K "J" would be more apples to apples? Many people buy (or lease) new cars every couple/few years because they like new … and don't want to mess with maintenance. Airplanes are no different. There is literally an order of magnitude separating the cost of a new Accord from a new Mooney. Also an order of magnitude separating a used Accord from a used Mooney. Cars, in most of the US excluding a few city centers, are a necessity. Airplanes are not. We buy airplanes because we like the idea of flying, and we have the disposable income to justify it. Expanding the market is the only way to sell more and, short of miraculously raising everyone's income by an order of magnitude, the price of new aircraft has to come down, or they have to be supplanted by good quality used aircraft. Frankly, there aren't many people out there who can truly afford to spend a few hundred thousand dollars on an airplane. In much of the US, houses cost less than a used airplane, much less a new one. Until a used/refurbished aircraft costs somewhere in the range of 1.5x-2x the cost of a midlife-crisis satisfying Harley or Corvette, aircraft sales are going to be primarily to a much smaller market. And once all the older aircraft rot away, all we'll be left with in the used market is a bunch of beat up trainers and Cirruses with a few Bonanzas and DA-40s thrown in. Cirrus, marketing to the "lifestyle" set, has a firm grip on the upmarket and can justify a premium price. Not much more room there, in my opinion. Would I like an airplane that performs like a Cirrus? Sure. That's why I'm building an RV-10 and flying a used 201. But I don't give a crap about the "lifestyle," and frankly won't pay someone to stroke my ego. Eventually maybe I'll be fortunate enough to step up to a Meridian or similar, but it's about capability for me, not image. Bottom line for me, is if a company like Mooney wants to survive, it has to make an "Accord" -- something like a 201 or Encore with updated avionics, basic interior, lightened up, and with minimal accessories. No need for your only models to be an Ovation Ultra and an Acclaim Ultra. What you need is a modernized 201 and a modernized Encore. Give people value options that undercut the Cirrus price structure significantly. Grab the people who are are in the used Cirrus market or, who are at the bottom end of the new Cirrus market. Poach the customers that Cirrus doesn't cater to anyway. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1001001 Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said: You can’t build a low volume Accord. Where does most of the cost of building an M20 come from? Labor, I assume. There can't be much in the way of development costs that haven't been amortized. Where does most of the labor cost come from? What would be the cost of a basic M20J/K airframe, stripped of avionics and interior right now? How much of the cost of a new Mooney goes to debt service? Edited July 4, 2020 by 1001001 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliffy Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 No one has figured in the cost of liability insurance for the airplane manufacturer per unit produced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toto Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, cliffy said: No one has figured in the cost of liability insurance for the airplane manufacturer per unit produced Back when US single-engine piston production ground to a halt in 1986 or so, manufacturers were saying that ~50% of their cost was liability insurance. That’s my vague recollection, anyway. After the GA Revitalization Act (1996ish) and later, it may well be that labor costs represent a much higher portion of the purchase price. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliffy Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 I thought the GARA only kicked in after 18 years from manufacture? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salty Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 (edited) How many rivets are there in a Honda Accord? They are disposable cars. They are built well, but they aren’t built to disassemble to do annual maintenance or Perform an AD on internal parts. Hell, there are no internal parts like a wing spar, just about everything is structural. Break one thing, and the thing would be unairworthy and possibly irreparable. You can’t compare them. GA died 40 years ago, when sales dropped to the point innovation was a waste of money. We’re just crawling along until until all the corpses drop for the last time. I for one will keep dragging the dead body as long as I can. Edited July 4, 2020 by salty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N9201A Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 Perhaps this could be one of the underlying issues why some seemed so focused on cancelling our past. Our ignorant ancestors should have made every day the day you drink Guinness Don’t know about this “canceling our past” stuff I keep keep hearing about (I feel like Jackie below), but if means we cancel celebrations of traitors who killed and maimed thousands of United States servicemembers (many of whom weren’t even citizens, but served) so that they could continue to enslave fellow human beings for their personal profit, yeah, America’s birthday seems a great day to say, I’ll quaff a Guinness to that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toto Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, cliffy said: I thought the GARA only kicked in after 18 years from manufacture? Right, but capping liability to 18 years for certain claims could have a major impact on the manufacturer’s total exposure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N9201A Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 Back when US single-engine piston production ground to a halt in 1986 or so, manufacturers were saying that ~50% of their cost was liability insurance. That’s my vague recollection, anyway. After the GA Revitalization Act (1996ish) and later, it may well be that labor costs represent a much higher portion of the purchase price. No one ever mentions the 1986 tax reforms, which if l recall correctly eliminated the deductibility of interest on personal loans. I suspect not being able to deduct interest on an airplane loan kiboshed plane purchases for many buyers. Not enough people today have the business revenue to write off a new plane purchase, so it is a much more limited market. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Writing off interest payments was extremely important when the interest rates were near 7%... Today, the write off wouldn’t be as good as the don’t pay interest... There hasn’t been a better time than currently... The federal reserve chairman has basically stated rates are as low as they will go and will stay that way for two years or so... In finance terms... Party on, Wayne and Garth! Use the near free money to hire the people... (That would be the reason for the low interest rates) PP thoughts only, not a finance guru... Best regards, -a- 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Andrew, Something like these? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 4 hours ago, Hyett6420 said: What you mean like Nokia? Actually a wellington boot manufacturer. (Someone please translate). L.L. Bean pretty much has the U.S. market on those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aviatoreb Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) Let's turn this discussion properly fully modern. Forget avgas lycosaurus or conty. Forget turbine as they fuel specifics aren't great although they are fantastically reliable and high power/fast. Forget diesel since those were not meant to be turbo boosted for high altitude ops and they are complicated - even though in practice a Mercedes diesel ala Diamond is enticing.... Electric! I will buy a new airplane when I can buy an electric airplane that has the range, speed, and reliability I expect in an airplane worthy of 500-700k of my hard earned dollars. I think that will be in about 10 years when the technology finally catches up? (In current dollars by then). Actually I would be happy with hybrid electric. You know the deal - small gas engine of some kind runs a generator that charges a battery. For take off you let both the gas and the electric motor fuel the prop for high take off power. Then its all electric (charging) for cruise. You get the reliability plausibly of an electric system, with a gas engine as backup - or anyway this is a twin engine reliability in a single shaft. And plausibly fantastic range.... It could be very high power too. Let it be plug in electric so that for short flights you can run entirely on what charge you can draw out of the all - so for some of your flying its pennies per mile. Literally pennies per mile of "fuel" cost. Electric is coming - its just a matter of time. Here is a potential cape air electric air airplane. (Cape air flies around here - remember the tv show wings and their Cessna 402s? I have been on that very exact airplane - it has a sticker on it that says, as seen on wings). https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/2019/08/08/cape-air-eviation-alice-electric-plane If someone - say Mooney - were first out of the gate with such an innovation - it would draw in a lot of people. Make it green, fast, cheap to operate, and reliability of effectively a twin...build it and they will come. That's what I want.... but shaped like a Mooney. Edited July 5, 2020 by aviatoreb 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, aviatoreb said: Let's turn this discussion properly fully modern. Forget avgas lycosaurus or conty. Forget turbine as they fuel specifics aren't great although they are fantastically reliable and high power/fast. Forget diesel since those were not meant to be turbo boosted for high altitude ops and they are complicated - even though in practice a Mercedes diesel ala Diamond is enticing.... Electric! I will buy a new airplane when I can buy an electric airplane that has the range, speed, and reliability I expect in an airplane worthy of 500-700k of my hard earned dollars. I think that will be in about 10 years when the technology finally catches up? (In current dollars by then). Actually I would be happy with hybrid electric. You know the deal - small gas engine of some kind runs a generator that charges a battery. For take off you let both the gas and the electric motor fuel the prop for high take off power. Then its all electric (charging) for cruise. You get the reliability plausibly of an electric system, with a gas engine as backup - or anyway this is a twin engine reliability in a single shaft. And plausibly fantastic range.... It could be very high power too. Let it be plug in electric so that for short flights you can run entirely on what charge you can draw out of the all - so for some of your flying its pennies per mile. Literally pennies per mile of "fuel" cost. Electric is coming - its just a matter of time. Here is a potential cape air electric air airplane. (Cape air flies around here - remember the tv show wings and their Cessna 402s? I have been on that very exact airplane - it has a sticker on it that says, as seen on wings). https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/2019/08/08/cape-air-eviation-alice-electric-plane If someone - say Mooney - were first out of the gate with such an innovation - it would draw in a lot of people. Make it green, fast, cheap to operate, and reliability of effectively a twin...build it and they will come. That's what I want.... but shaped like a Mooney. I agree with an electric Mooney. As with our growing fleet of Tesla’s and other electric autos, not to mention Counties such as San Luis Obispo, CA, that have set their sights on becoming all electronic within the next several years ( others to follow)........is the power infrastructure growing, or will it grow enough to support future all electric everything? Where and what will all that electricity be created from? Certainly no longer from atomic energy power plants, such as our local Diablo Canyon nuclear plant being decommissioned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aviatoreb Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said: I agree with an electric Mooney. As with our growing fleet of Tesla’s and other electric autos, not to mention Counties such as San Luis Obispo, CA, that have set their sights on becoming all electronic within the next several years ( others to follow)........is the power infrastructure growing, or will it grow enough to support future all electric everything? Where and what will all that electricity be created from? Certainly no longer from atomic energy power plants, such as our local Diablo Canyon nuclear plant being decommissioned. That is a very interesting comment Mitch. I don't know. Does anyone here know the actual total power draw of all the cars in the USA car fleet and how any kilowatts that draws? Is this an issue to the power grid or is it still relatively small and the current or slightly upgraded version fo the power grid might easily absorb it? I live in a part of the county that generates a lot of excess power and we ship it to the grid. Here in far upstate rural NY, we have a lot of hydro, a lot of wind, and also, not right here but within about 100 miles some nuke. (Oswego Nuke power). I live on a river and it has hydro 1 mile from my house downstream and also a few miles upstream. About 15 miles away there is a massive hydro power station that helps power an Alcoa and also GM plants. Plus the grid. And big wind farms here there and about this area. No lack of power here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said: I agree with an electric Mooney. As with our growing fleet of Tesla’s and other electric autos, not to mention Counties such as San Luis Obispo, CA, that have set their sights on becoming all electronic within the next several years ( others to follow)........is the power infrastructure growing, or will it grow enough to support future all electric everything? Where and what will all that electricity be created from? Certainly no longer from atomic energy power plants, such as our local Diablo Canyon nuclear plant being decommissioned. They have the same problem as electric cars--limited range and stupid-long charge time. Even after the initially very limited number of charging stations is tackled, ever seen several planes in line to spend 5 minutes each pumping fuel? Want to be #4 in line for your turn at a one-hour charge cycle? Long XCs will go away, can't go further than you can RTB from, allowing for winds and reserve. Land, plug in and go home . . . . No thanks. No electric car, no electric plane. But electric RC planes are great, no greasy exhaust residue to clean off at the end of an afternoon's fun. P.S.--just like our current batteries, as your "fuel" batteries age and go through charge-discharge cycles, they run down faster, further limiting your range. Again, no thank you . . . . The joys of being part of two far-flung families. No current electric vehicle will drive from my home to my in-laws without at least one recharge (E. AL to central NC, not even that far. Edited July 5, 2020 by Hank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 I may be simply ignorant of the availability of current power excess, and/or planning for future demands...... I just don’t hear about it. Who or what is running the ship? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aviatoreb Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Hank said: They have the same problem as electric cars--limited range and stupid-long charge time. Even after the initially very limited number of charging stations is tackled, ever seen several planes in line to spend 5 minutes each pumping fuel? Want to be #4 in line for your turn at a one-hour charge cycle? Long XCs will go away, can't go further than you can RTB from, allowing for winds and reserve. Land, plug in and go home . . . . No thanks. No electric car, no electric plane. But electric RC planes are great, no greasy exhaust residue to clean off at the end of an afternoon's fun. I disagree entirely. You are citing relative to today's technology. I am confident that future technology will make electric easily produce good range. For cars and airplanes. 5 years? 10 years? 50 years? When is the issue. In my original post on this above I just made up a number and said 10 years. Hybrid electric is what I put forward as a plausible near term solution since that entirely mitigates the all electric battery range issue. And plug in electric is the best of that for flexibility. As for cars, I for one live 1.5 mi from work - I ride bike in the summer and I drive in the winter. All electric would be fine for my daily driver even with current limited range. But the cost benefit is not so much there yet and I maintain a gas car instead. My rowing buddy (we row a double scull) has an all electric vehicle -' he has been running it for a few years and loves it. Its quite suitable for living here. We go 10 mi to the lake for rowing. he drives to work. He charges it over night. If he needs to drive someplace far away he trades with his wife for a few days. An issue I stated above, but I will repeat, is perhaps one of the greatest airplane specific benefits of a hybrid electric system if I understand this right - we get potentially twin engine reliability from a single shaft/single prop system. If the gas engine gives out you still have the electric, and vice versa. Edited July 5, 2020 by aviatoreb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, MooneyMitch said: I may be simply ignorant of the availability of current power excess, and/or planning for future demands...... I just don’t hear about it. Who or what is running the ship? Your local power company runs your ship. Alabama Power runs mine here. As far as I know, there is no overarching structure, just a maze of power companies from large (American Electric Power) to small (electric coops that serve single communities). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aviatoreb Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, MooneyMitch said: I may be simply ignorant of the availability of current power excess, and/or planning for future demands...... I just don’t hear about it. Who or what is running the ship? I agree - I hope and expect someone is looking into that critical issue. What is the current power capacity of our electric system and can it absorb an all electric car fleet or otherwise what would it take to expand it to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, aviatoreb said: I agree - I hope and expect someone is looking into that critical issue. What is the current power capacity of our electric system and can it absorb an all electric car fleet or otherwise what would it take to expand it to do so. That will be a challenge in crowded, dense metro areas. But like you, there are three hydro facilities (that I know of) within a dozen miles of my home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aviatoreb Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, Hank said: Your local power company runs your ship. Alabama Power runs mine here. As far as I know, there is no overarching structure, just a maze of power companies from large (American Electric Power) to small (electric coops that serve single communities). I should ask some of the guys at work - funny enough I am in an ECE department and several of the profs are actually specialists in power grid, or actually the electric engineering part of it, but I bet they know. Good question! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted July 5, 2020 Report Share Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, Hank said: They have the same problem as electric cars--limited range and stupid-long charge time. Even after the initially very limited number of charging stations is tackled, ever seen several planes in line to spend 5 minutes each pumping fuel? Want to be #4 in line for your turn at a one-hour charge cycle? Long XCs will go away, can't go further than you can RTB from, allowing for winds and reserve. Land, plug in and go home . . . . No thanks. No electric car, no electric plane. But electric RC planes are great, no greasy exhaust residue to clean off at the end of an afternoon's fun. The future lies ahead....... technology will move forward, eliminating long time charging experiences, and eliminating the batteries that dictate that...... The vast Tesla, waiting to charge line I’ve witnessed at Madonna Inn ( San Luis Obispo) charging station is enough to frighten me away from such. I’m waiting so as not to wait in a charging line. And, what about that great sound from my gasoline Porsche Cayman flat 6 engine I get to hear with each acceleration? Would the engineers add a simulated audio sound in its place? But wait, Porsche has the electric car already! Oh my....... vroom, vroom!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.