Anxious and Empathetic - Hurricane Milton

[mmcdaniel33]

So, August 20th I, as a newly minted Mooney M20J pilot, flew N82KL down to Sarasota Avionics in Venice, Florida for some work and upgrades.  As a Mooney Service Center I figured I could kill two birds with one stone so to speak, get some great deals stemming from AirVenture installed and take care of the awful trim issues it had.

So, its still down there.  Ground Zero for Milton.  As nervous as I am for my airplane, I am really, really feeling for those folks who live and work there.  If my plane is destroyed, I have insurance.  If their livlihood, or lives, are disrupted, there is a distinct limit to what insurance can do.  I'm hoping for the best while fearing the worst.  But overall my heart goes out to all of the folks at Sarasota Aviation right now, and their families.

Just wow!

[Hank]

I just got my first Milton Preparation email from Operation Airdrop. Hopefully their service won't be needed. Most of the damage will probably be south of Tampa, not sure I'll have the legs to stretch that far or not.

[A64Pilot]

It is supposed to come over top of me, I’m in Central Fl. I think maybe roof damage and maybe the screen enclosure on the pool. My hangar has folding doors and I think they are the weak link, so I have the motorhome parked sideways against the doors as a windbreak, I dont think it necessary, but why not?

The biggest problem if your away from the storm surge will I think be flooding as we have had way more rainfall than normal and everything is just about flooded now.

I’m nearly certain I will be fine but too much of Fl has been developed on land that has always flooded and guess what it still does, people from up North move down and just don’t know better, it’s just overdeveloped and they buy into neighborhoods that flood even from just thunderstorms.

I think and hope it will hit just South of Tampa because if it hits North, then Tampa is gone, I mean that literally as Tampa is the most vulnerable city in the US for storm surge, haven’t read the article but have known that for years.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/08/us-news/why-tampa-is-the-most-vulnerable-city-in-america-for-hurricanes/

As a pretty much Fl native I can tell you that hurricanes never form in the gulf and hit fl, not until 2017 when Michael blew up and destroyed Panama city, but since 2017 three now have I think, the weather pattern has changed, They just didn’t form in the Gulf, they came from the Atlantic, got in the Guif and strengthened but never formed in the gulf, not and hit Florida that is, and they didn’t blow up to Cat 5’s overnight, not until Michael 

I think maybe Sarasota will be the bulls eye, but that’s not as bad as being just South of the Hurricane, because the rotate counterclockwise if your S of it you get the wind speed added to its forward speed, it’s like the advancing blade of a helicopter, think of it this way if it’s North of yiu with wind speed of 100 mph and moving at 10 mph you get 110 mph winds, but if it’s S of you you get 90 mph winds, and if it’s N of you it pushes water on land, but if it’s S of you it pushes water away.

If it hits N of Tampa it may push a 15 ft storm surge into the bay flooding millions of homes, if it hits S it will literally almost empty the bay and nothing floods.

Tampa hasn’t been hit in over 100 years since 1921 and before that in the mid 1800’s. Tampa just doesn’t get hit, it’s like Savannah in that respect.

Edited October 9, 2024 by A64Pilot

[ArtVandelay]

Latest track shows it hitting between Sarasota and Bradenton. 5-7 inches of rainfall through the central portion of Florida. We’re already saturated so there’s no place for the water to go.

[N201MKTurbo]

I have a friend who lives in Indialantic. It currently shows the storm track missing him bu 1/4 mile. He said at 68 it is getting harder to put the plywood up. His house is about 10 feet above sea level on an island. The surge is only supposed to be 6 feet there. His son is an emergency room doc in Tampa. He was told he can’t leave. He lives in a glass hi-rise on the coast. The building told everyone to leave. The hospital got everybody hotel rooms near the hospital.

He said a hurricane eye went over him in ‘79 and he went to the beach and played frisby in the eye.

[GeeBee]

10 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

As a pretty much Fl native I can tell you that hurricanes never form in the gulf and hit fl, not until 2017 when Michael blew up and destroyed Panama city, but since 2017 three now have I think, the weather pattern has changed, They just didn’t form in the Gulf, they came from the Atlantic, got in the Guif and strengthened but never formed in the gulf, not and hit Florida that is, and they didn’t blow up to Cat 5’s overnight, not until Michael 

[ArtVandelay]

Missing Wilma, Charlie…

[A64Pilot]

I think the overwhelming majority of those weren’t hurricanes are they, and some you show didn’t form in the gulf?

1950 to 2017 is a pretty good run, longer than I have been alive anyway

[Jeff Uphoff]

11 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

Tampa hasn’t been hit in over 100 years since 1921 and before that in the mid 1800’s. Tampa just doesn’t get hit, it’s like Savannah in that respect.

Thank goodness for that--Savannah has been my second home for 25 years, and I have family there and next door in Beaufort.

[A64Pilot]

Nitpicking I agree but Wilma and Charlie formed South of the gulf I believe, but sort of do show that Gulf Hurricanes are far more prelevant than in recent past.

Used to be the East cost usually got it every year, I used to think why would anyone live there?

Camille was the one that I remember remember because it chewed up the Panhandle which is where I’m from. Way back people just built regular houses on the beach  and of course they got demolished, before Camille it changed they built concrete block on slabs, the hurricane didn’t blow them apart (remember the little pigs?) but the water washed out the sand under the slab, house fell into the hole and was destroyed.

After Camille beach front property in the Panhandle was cheap, My father bought a lot and built on Alligator point, built it on slits, actually used big power transmission poles, jetted in until they hit limestone and then cut off to correct height. We paid to have it dried in but finished the interior ourselves every weekend, put hurricane clips on every rafter etc.

That house is still there has ridden everything out since, it’s on Lighthouse point that has been enlarging at every major storm so it’s not eroding, just the opposite.

I bought an ICF house, insulated concrete forms is what ICF stands for, my house isn’t built to the same standards as this one, but the walls are the same

https://www.icfmag.com/2019/09/mexico-beach-survivor/

My hangar though is just concrete block and I think the folding doors aren’t as strong as the big single piece hydraulic ones, so I put this as a wind lock.

My roofs though are shingles, so if I get high winds I think I’ll lose the shingles, only have not real big palms around the house so nothing house crushing.

I should be on its North side however and if you’re going to be hit, being on the North side is the place to be.

Rain I think they are saying over a foot depending on who you listen to, but I’m 99% sure I’m OK there too, believe it or not but my part of Fl is pretty hilly (small hills) but I’m on the side of one about 10 or 15 ft up. Sitting on my couch I look out and I see my neighbors roofs not houses and they have never come anything close to flooding.

I expect to lose power for a day maybe until weather clears and I get the generator out, I have 50 gls of card gas and without stealing gas from the Mooney I have 250 gls left in my Avgas tank, so I should have several weeks of gas I think.

On edit, the big threat is tornadoes, but the percentage on getting hit is very low

Edited October 9, 2024 by A64Pilot

[A64Pilot]

Just now, Jeff Uphoff said:

Thank goodness for that--Savannah has been my second home for 25 years, and I have family there and next door in Beaufort.

I was stationed at Hunter Army Airfield a couple of times and from Memory I don’t think Savannah has ever been hit? North and South have though.

Wife is giving me looks, we hosted a party yesterday so I have to get up and put the patio furniture away.

[GeeBee]

50 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

I think the overwhelming majority of those weren’t hurricanes are they, and some you show didn’t form in the gulf?

1950 to 2017 is a pretty good run, longer than I have been alive anyway

According to NOAA archives going back to 1888 sustained winds in excess of 90 so yep, they were hurricanes. As for 1950-2017 actually a period of diminished activity. We all think history begins with our birth.

[A64Pilot]

I will throw this out there.

Desantis has really got his SH** together, I believe he is a phenomenal organizer.

[A64Pilot]

36 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

According to NOAA archives going back to 1888 sustained winds in excess of 90 so yep, they were hurricanes. As for 1950-2017 actually a period of diminished activity. We all think history begins with our birth.

My point was and is that the weather pattern has shifted, and I think it’s pretty apparent it has. Maybe back to what it was 100 years ago, or maybe completely different, the fact it’s different is the point, not that 100 years ago it was similar.

Just as tornado alley has shifted.

The weather pattern is now different than anytime in my life, and frankly the time I’m concerned about is those years I will be on this Earth. So as the threats have changed I need to evolve with it, and in my opinion anyone living on the West Coast of Fl needs to consider evolving whatever that means to them.

In particular I’m really dependent on power. I’m thinking of buying another 10K plus sized generator as a backup to this one. I do have a rather large in ground Propane tank, but don’t think a Generac type is warrantied, perhaps as I get older it may be.

What will be interesting is to see how Looters will be dealt with, because you know there will be some. I think I know how, and it won’t be to pretend they don’t exist and have the news not cover it.

[GeeBee]

1 hour ago, A64Pilot said:

My point was and is that the weather pattern has shifted, and I think it’s pretty apparent it has. Maybe back to what it was 100 years ago, or maybe completely different, the fact it’s different is the point, not that 100 years ago it was similar.

Just as tornado alley has shifted.

The weather pattern is now different than anytime in my life, and frankly the time I’m concerned about is those years I will be on this Earth. So as the threats have changed I need to evolve with it, and in my opinion anyone living on the West Coast of Fl needs to consider evolving whatever that means to them.

In particular I’m really dependent on power. I’m thinking of buying another 10K plus sized generator as a backup to this one. I do have a rather large in ground Propane tank, but don’t think a Generac type is warrantied, perhaps as I get older it may be.

What will be interesting is to see how Looters will be dealt with, because you know there will be some. I think I know how, and it won’t be to pretend they don’t exist and have the news not cover it.

Weather is always shifting. As to generators, I have a 40KW whole house. Last year had a huge line of T-storms with a massive down burst right over my house. Living out on a peninsula we are always the last to get re-wired. Ran 5 days 24/7 with 6 grandkids in the house. Ops completely normal other than all the downed trees. Get a whole house, you'll never regret it.

[A64Pilot]

40 KW? You sure? Most of the bid Diesels we had in the Army on Dual wheeled axles were either 30 KW or the big ones were 60, 60 ran hospitals etc.

How many gallons an hour of propane does a 40KW gen use? 

Want to hear something crazy? UPS just delivered the jack stands I had ordered from Amazon, UPS guy said they were told to expect to work tomorrow too.

Disney is open today until 2PM, that’s just stupid that keeps the tourists here until they can’t evacuate, it’s past evac time in my opinion, if your still here, your riding it out for several days at least.

We have lived here four years I think, ran the generator for a couple of hours in those four years. I’ve been told that you need to prepare for weeks of power loss if you get the “Big” one storm wise. I can’t justify probably $10,000 in cost of a big whole house generator. 10K includes the expense of another 250 gl propane tank but it’s a WAG price wise, surely you can tie them together as opposed to buying a single 500, but really you may need 750 gls to go for weeks.

I’ve got 55 gls of car gas in plastic cans, I’ll burn it of course if fuel is available, but my AVgas tank is 285 gls, I’ve used 45 of that so I have 240 gls of it available for the generator, but at its price I’d rather burn the cheaper car gas.

My Propane tank I think is 250 gl, but I think you only can use 80% of that? If so that gives me 200 usable if it’s full. That would only be 50 hours or so of a whole house generator according to this, depending on size and load of course

https://canterpowersystems.com/blog/generac-propane-usage/#:~:text=Smaller models — such as the,gallons of propane per hour.

I’m thinking buying another cheap generator, probably a 13KW for about $1,500 on Amazon, keep my current one too though somI have a backup.

‘In truth we could just move into the RV though, I’ve run the numbers I can run everything in the house excepting the big loads like drier, stove, water heater but Incan live without that, plan on showering in the RV using its propane water heater. I’d prefer not to take cold showers.

If it were to get bad we would just get in the Mooney and go on a Vacation somewhere, or the Motorhome if the roads are OK, just empty the fridges of course.

Edited October 9, 2024 by A64Pilot

[flyboy0681]

Just when I was getting used to 300% insurance hikes per year.

[GeeBee]

3 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

40 KW? You sure? Most of the bid Diesels we had in the Army on Dual wheeled axles were either 30 KW or the big ones were 60, 60 ran hospitals etc.

How many gallons an hour of propane does a 40KW gen use? 

Want to hear something crazy? UPS just delivered the jack stands I had ordered from Amazon, UPS guy said they were told to expect to work tomorrow too.

Disney is open today until 2PM, that’s just stupid that keeps the tourists here until they can’t evacuate, it’s past evac time in my opinion, if your still here, your riding it out for several days at least.

We have lived here four years I think, ran the generator for a couple of hours in those four years. I’ve been told that you need to prepare for weeks of power loss if you get the “Big” one storm wise. I can’t justify probably $10,000 in cost of a big whole house generator. 10K includes the expense of another 250 gl propane tank but it’s a WAG price wise, surely you can tie them together as opposed to buying a single 500, but really you may need 750 gls to go for weeks.

I’ve got 55 gls of car gas in plastic cans, I’ll burn it of course if fuel is available, but my AVgas tank is 285 gls, I’ve used 45 of that so I have 240 gls of it available for the generator, but at its price I’d rather burn the cheaper car gas.

My Propane tank I think is 250 gl, but I think you only can use 80% of that? If so that gives me 200 usable if it’s full. That would only be 50 hours or so of a whole house generator according to this, depending on size and load of course

https://canterpowersystems.com/blog/generac-propane-usage/#:~:text=Smaller models — such as the,gallons of propane per hour.

I’m thinking buying another cheap generator, probably a 13KW for about $1,500 on Amazon, keep my current one too though somI have a backup.

‘In truth we could just move into the RV though, I’ve run the numbers I can run everything in the house excepting the big loads like drier, stove, water heater but Incan live without that, plan on showering in the RV using its propane water heater. I’d prefer not to take cold showers.

If it were to get bad we would just get in the Mooney and go on a Vacation somewhere, or the Motorhome if the roads are OK, just empty the fridges of course.

Oh yes. I have an all electric house with a 400 amp service. I have a 500 gallon propane tank. Typically it burns on average about 3.2 gallons propane per hour (average 30% power) which gives me a little over 5 days. If I decide to ration it, by not running at night for instance I could easily make 10-12 days. If I really rationed it, I am sure I could make a month.  I calculate my rationing by the availability of propane. Last year for instance I could have a propane truck in my driveway in hours, so no need to ration. I have a monthly keep full on the tank. The engine is a 4 cylinder Mitsubishi turbo charged.

https://www.generac.com/globalassets/products/residential/standby-generators/spec-sheets/xg03245-xg04045_hsb_specsheet.pdf

[BlueSky247]

Hey guys - just as an example of what can be done if you really want to stretch things out. I just got through running for three days on a 2kw Wen inverter generator. I kept it on eco idle and it kept the fridge and freezers going along with a few led lights and assorted tool/battery chargers. I would temporarily switch it to the coffee maker and an induction hot plate in the morning, but that's it. 

 

I used a total 5 gallons of corn free Mogas. Can't complain about that at all. I was very fortunate here that the weather was mild, so there was no need for hvac, or fans.

 

I've been sizing whole house gennys and talking to a propane supplier since then. I found one that will rent the tank size of your choosing for $50/year. For my needs, the generac 14kw would be plenty. But I am factoring in what the least fuel burn rate will be on those units, and some can get up there. Depending on where one lives, I think it makes more sense to put in a solar setup with batteries as a buffering aid. Then you can use a more frugal midrange genny only when you really need it, and only need to run it long enough to top up the batteries.

[GeeBee]

On average you will run about 30% power if you run 24/7. 

Buy your propane tank and own it. Then you are free to buy from whatever supplier you want. This creates a higher level of security from a supply standpoint.

 

[BlueSky247]

True. One of the options I’ve kicked around is getting a few 100g tanks from costco and refilling there or wherever has the lowest prices. Those are about 170lbs when full, so not too much trouble to move around. 

[Andy95W]

22 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

 

@A64Pilot- I hope you, your wife, your airplane, and your home survived without damage.  Please let us know when you can.

[Shadrach]

On 10/9/2024 at 8:08 AM, N201MKTurbo said:

I have a friend who lives in Indialantic. It currently shows the storm track missing him bu 1/4 mile. He said at 68 it is getting harder to put the plywood up. His house is about 10 feet above sea level on an island. The surge is only supposed to be 6 feet there. His son is an emergency room doc in Tampa. He was told he can’t leave. He lives in a glass hi-rise on the coast. The building told everyone to leave. The hospital got everybody hotel rooms near the hospital.

He said a hurricane eye went over him in ‘79 and he went to the beach and played frisby in the eye.

My dad (86) loves to talk about how smooth it was when he flew through the eye of Hurricane Agnes back in the summer of ‘72.  He knows we’ve all heard the story more than 20 times so he thoughtfully embellishes it just a little each time to keep it from getting too stale.

[EricJ]

2 hours ago, Shadrach said:

My dad (86) loves to talk about how smooth it was when he flew through the eye of Hurricane Agnes back in the summer of ‘72.  He knows we’ve all heard the story more than 20 times so he thoughtfully embellishes it just a little each time to keep it from getting too stale.

NIce. 

There's an Air Disaster episode of a NOAA Poseidon aircraft that lost an engine while penetrating Hurricane Hugo in 1989, and wound up in the eye unable to hold altitude and dealing with a partially disintegrated airplane.   It's a great story, but my favorite part was there was an Air Force C-130 in there, too, and they were able to come alongside and help survey the external damage to the aircraft.     Jeebuz, but I'd have definitely loved work like that when I was younger.

Full ep can be seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_E00cmcMWY

[A64Pilot]

Well as you all know it wasn’t as bad as it could have been, I lost several shingles and will have to reattach a brace on the pool “bird cage” but that’s about it.

We are without power now running in a 7.2 KW generator, a Wallenstein if you can believe that, I call it my good Yiddish generator or Wally.

But honestly it’s a 13 HP Honda bolted to someone’s generator, only thing made by Wallenstein is the gas tank. Very few manufactures actually manufacture the engine and generator, not even Onan does.

I looked at a Gererac, average sized one I think 22KW or so, two cylinder air cooled motor. According to Generac average propane consumption is between 2 to 4 gl per hour. 

Propane is just under $5 a gl here. $4.73 Propane has less BTU than gas so the fuel burn is higher. But let’s use 3 gl per hour and $4.73 a gl, if you ran it 24 hours s day then you go through 75 gls of fuel at $4.73 a gl that’s $340.56 a day.  So only run it 12 hours and it’s still $170 a day.

Generator costs roughly $6K https://www.electricgeneratorsdirect.com/Generac-Guardian-70422-Standby-Generator/p82544.html

I don’t know about installation or what a 500 gl Propane tank costs installed and filled, but I guesstimate everything all in to be maybe $10K?

So let’s  look at a smaller gasoline alternative. figure $1300 - $1,500, installation amounts to a box you add into your current electric box with a CB and a blocker bar that requires the main breaker to be off to turn on the generator CB, assume your not comfortable doing it and hire an electrician, figure $500.

https://www.amazon.com/Green-Power-America-GN13000EW-Generator-13-Generator/dp/B08VDCY2CT/ref=sr_1_1?crid=S935GF3Y8WV6&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.sd5hEhMWR5-IoipDoYsGDgwa1RyaDDQOYrXOjYJdPsKpqI39ZiV7JnuB6LbVcHWBrocX_f0DmVLOcGvIezBabcblBIL4IodDjTbXMmgesZz0t-N8_DufbBEU2TIYIyWcF3v1gD-5X7EZ7GEkJNu5YduKKcSh1FeHYhgRCfGzZc5ZFdmIDHLhb6jF1FoYxO9RYP5gdEk0t4dt0cCUdkNbwgpVnHHrzj6EQ3zhQih9BJ4.WIgxij10mi0PxUuBobTdUxDSHLoSlD9x85dd1c25XeQ&dib_tag=se&keywords=13%2Bk%2Bgenerator&qid=1728591010&sprefix=13%2Bk%2Bgenerator%2Caps%2C275&sr=8-1&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.765d4786-5719-48b9-b588-eab9385652d5&th=1

So we are at $2k all in. So let’s figure fuel cost, currently I’m burning about 1 gl an hour at $ 2.79 a gl, but double that for planning assume your running it harder than I am.

https://www.samsclub.com/local/fuel-center/lady-lake-fl-sams-club/4998 So if you run it 24 hours it’s $133 a day, opposed to $340 a day.

How long will we be without power? I think a week max, but have heard a month or more if it was a really bad storm. Desantis however really has his stuff together though, there were over 50,000 linemen in State before the storm, I figure 50,000 linemen can fix a lot, fast. He had the State Patrol escorting fuel trucks before the storm etc.

But figure worst case 30 days x $340 a day is over $10,000. Worst case for a gas generator at 2 gl an hour is $4,000. for me at 1 gl an hour it’s $2,000.

It’s not worth 10K to me, I’d jump in the Mooney and we would stay in a Resort for less than that.

For me at 1 gl an hour it’s $67 a day. Now full disclosure that 1 gl an hour is because I’m not using the stove, the drier, the water heater, or HVAC, I’m not running the pool pump or any other high amp device, my generator couldn’t run the water heater as it’s 30 amps at 240V, 7200W which is it’s max continuous rating, a 13KW could though.

I do run the crock pot, stew on right now, the microwave, coffee pot and our CPAP’s at night, oh and the well as we have one but it’s a sporadic load of course, but at 1.5 HP it’s not insignificant. Cook on the grill, I will run the HVAC if it gets hot which will probably at least double the fuel burn I’m guessing, and shower in the RV because I really don’t want to take a cold shower.

But the real kicker is this is the first time I have used it in the four years I’ve lived here, I just can’t justify the $10K purchase and installation expense. For every four years use, if that holds.

I guess it depends on your frequency of use and how much not having to do anything except sit on the couch and your standby generator is running, I do have to schlep fuel, drag Wally out and plug him in, crank him up etc. And it’s not a whole house generator, it’s plugged into the house electrical system, but with only 7.2KW you can’t run big loads and have to power manage and not run the crock pot, the microwave while the wife is drying her hair and if power is out for longer than I expect we will be drying clothes on the line.

If we still lived on the farm I would have a PTO driven generator and use one of the tractors.  

On edit, nearly everyone in my neighborhood has a generator, every kind you can think of, several have Generac’s one got hit by lightning we think last year and fried the stator control board etc.  Someone else’s as I rode the golf cart around a few minutes ago apparently got fried during the hurricane as it was checked just last week, but doesn’t work now.

I live in the lightning capital of the World, literally. I surmise that a standby generator as it’s wired in is susceptible to lightning, but as it should be isolated due to the transfer switch being open, maybe it gets in through the ground wire?

 

Edited October 10, 2024 by A64Pilot