100LL: EPA proposed endangerment finding

[FlyingDude]

21 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Disturbing how our dialogue has transcended facts now and WAG based on our own opinions and preconceived biases on how we see the world are regarded as perfectly adequate replacements.

I agree. Why else would anyone support "0 tolerance" policies?

 

[ilovecornfields]

30 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

My pet theory is kids are not allowed to eat mud etc and households clean everything to wothin an inch of their lives these days which never happened when we were kids.  God i used to eat coal till i was 4 Hence kids immune systems dont develop early enough to stop allergies etc. 

as for ADD which kid REALLY wants to sit in a classroom all day rather than play and imagine things. 
 

 

Yes, the “hygiene hypothesis.” There certainly may be some truth to it, however, it’s probably only part of the story.

I remember growing up thinking that all my friends and their family members were “healthy” because no one ever talked about illness, especially chronic diseases. Now it seems people overshare all of their medical problems to complete strangers so it makes the true incidence of disease difficult to determine when you’re just depending on your own experience over time of what you heard about.

Having met a lot of adults my age who eventually got diagnosed with ADD, I can assure you the disease has been around for a long time. I don’t like being in classrooms either, but there is a big difference between those who don’t like being in class and the hyperactive ones who can’t focus for two minutes and sit still. Stimulant medications can be life changing for those who truly have ADD.

https://journals.lww.com/co-allergy/Fulltext/2013/02000/The_hygiene_hypothesis_in_allergy_and_asthma__an.13.aspx

[Pinecone]

2 hours ago, Hyett6420 said:

My pet theory is kids are not allowed to eat mud etc and households clean everything to wothin an inch of their lives these days which never happened when we were kids.  God i used to eat coal till i was 4 Hence kids immune systems dont develop early enough to stop allergies etc. 

as for ADD which kid REALLY wants to sit in a classroom all day rather than play and imagine things. 
 

 

Agreed.

As for ADD, with not separating kids by ability and teaching to the lowest level, you get a lot of kids who are bored in class.

[Will.iam]

My A&P routinely washes his hands by using 100LL to clean them. I remeber cleaning motorcycle parts when i was a kid with 100LL. I cringe at that thought now but when i asked him if he was concerned about Lead from the gas he said been cleaning parts and my hands for decades. Doesn’t leave the stinky smell autogas does. He is in his late 60’s and hasn’t had major heath problems yet but for me it allowed me to relax a little to know it’s not as bad as the fear mongers make it out to be. 

[carusoam]

Washing your hands in organic solvents is probably worse than the lead content itself…

The skin is pretty much a porous membrane…

The other concern would be sparks from static on a dry day…

-a-

[ragedracer1977]

On 10/16/2022 at 3:57 AM, midlifeflyer said:

Really, three gown kids who never sucked on weird stuff when they were little? 

For numbers, there are the usual problems. Paint was a bigger problem in lower class communities. It existed everywhere but old cracking paint never repaired and crumbling was a bigger problem in lower cost housing and slums. You might not buy that but even  today, rental habitability and maintenance issues are greater in poorer communities.  
 

But it wasn't just house paint. Lead paint on toys, heck, lead toys. Are we limiting the sample to short term death or long term effects on cognition and health? The latter is still being studied, with some estimates indicating exposure rates as high as  to 50% of Americans brought up in the lead era.

 

I didn’t say it didn’t happen, ever. I asked if it ever happened in mass numbers. 
 

when America talks about a problem, we always focus on the edge cases.  

[midlifeflyer]

30 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

I didn’t say it didn’t happen, ever. I asked if it ever happened in mass numbers. 
 

when America talks about a problem, we always focus on the edge cases.  

I guess it depends on your definition of "edge cases." Most people I know have a definition that fits in well with Mel Brooks' distinction between comedy and tragedy.

[A64Pilot]

17 hours ago, Will.iam said:

My A&P routinely washes his hands by using 100LL to clean them. I remeber cleaning motorcycle parts when i was a kid with 100LL. I cringe at that thought now but when i asked him if he was concerned about Lead from the gas he said been cleaning parts and my hands for decades. Doesn’t leave the stinky smell autogas does. He is in his late 60’s and hasn’t had major heath problems yet but for me it allowed me to relax a little to know it’s not as bad as the fear mongers make it out to be. 

While I think the danger of LL is overplayed, I don’t think we can use your example as an indicator of its safety.

Every now and again we all see OLD people who have smoked their entire lives, and we are pretty sure that smoking is over time really bad for your health, even second hand smoke if it’s often enough and high enough concentration is bad.

However I don’t think you diving your car at highway speed and the person in the car ahead of you smoking is putting you in any danger, however the zero tolerance types are certain they are

[A64Pilot]

18 hours ago, Pinecone said:

Agreed.

As for ADD, with not separating kids by ability and teaching to the lowest level, you get a lot of kids who are bored in class.

I think this is to a very great extent what’s wrong with education today, plus the participation trophies etc. “Everybody is a Winner” Uh, no they aren’t and realizing that’s isn’t a shame, it’s accepting reality. Some things I suck at, realizing that early in life I think was important, allowed me to concentrate on the things I didn’t suck at, and people need to be challenged and just being honest putting a smart kid in a class of kids that aren’t and teaching to the lowest level does nothing but tear the whole class down to the dumbest student.

I grew up in a society that would I think be considered abuse and criminal today, but that was only 50ish years ago, and 50 years is a blink of the eye time wise for a society.

[N201MKTurbo]

So, after the anti-lead organizations are successful and lead has been removed from all commercial products, what will they do? Will they declare success, have a party and close up shop? I doubt it. They will just move on to the next insignificant hazard. 

Speaking of lead in commercial products, when are they coming for our batteries?

[Pinecone]

1 hour ago, ragedracer1977 said:

when America talks about a problem, we always focus on the edge cases.  

NO, that would never happen.

So, if you put up blinds there are warnings and attachments to keep kids from being strangled by the cords.  Must be a big deal right?   Prior to the warnings, hardware, and changes to blinds cords, about 6 children per year were killed in the US.

Not exactly a common issue.

BTW, more kids are killed by being backed over by their parents. 

[A64Pilot]

You know battery technology has reached a point to where lead just in most cases isn’t necessary anymore.

While I don’t think the millions of tons of lead batteries are a significant health hazard, better technology is available and I’d think over time lead batteries will over time be phased out. If left alone I believe it will take care of itself.

But is replacing millions of tons of lead batteries with hundreds of thousands of tons of Lithium based batteries better?

I think often the rush to ban something that we don’t study the replacement, and sometimes the replacement is just as bad or worse.

 

[midlifeflyer]

This is such a funny thread. Unleaded auto fuel has been gone since 1986. Having done exactly zero about it in the interim, we whine like jet engines about being forced to fit into the rest of the world.

[A64Pilot]

2 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

 

BTW, more kids are killed by being backed over by their parents. 

That must be because cars aren’t placarded from backing over kids.

[A64Pilot]

2 minutes ago, midlifeflyer said:

This is such a funny thread. Unleaded auto fuel has been gone since 1986. Having done exactly zero about it in the interim, we whine like jet engines about being forced to fit into the rest of the world.

A large difference is those cars that formerly burned leaded fuel could be operated on unleaded fuel, maybe turn the timing down some and lose a little power

Our aircraft need a “new” fuel, one that we don’t know what the availability or cost will be. The concern I don’t think has much to do with lead removal, I believe that will surface after it’s been gone for awhile, it’s about availability and price and possibility the lack of any actual long term testing.

If you look at aircraft engine history, pretty much all of the attempts to modernize them has failed, even when tested and built by actual engine manufacturers.

Where are all the geared high RPM liquid cooled engines now?

When the lead was removed from auto engines what occurred was a new generation of auto engines, as automobiles are regularly replaced within 10 years or so most autos were operating on engines designed and developed to burn unleaded fuel. I don’t see that happening with aircraft, do you?

I don’t think we can draw conclusions from auto’s, I wish we could. I’d really like a new Mooney every five years or so, one that there were actual differences between the old and the new one

[Shadrach]

32 minutes ago, midlifeflyer said:

This is such a funny thread. Unleaded auto fuel has been gone since 1986. Having done exactly zero about it in the interim, we whine like jet engines about being forced to fit into the rest of the world.

I don’t think that is at all what’s happening.  I think the major concern is that now that we “have” an approved substitute, 100LL will be regulated into scarcity before the approved substitute is readily available. It is indeed true that TEL is an organic toxin. It’s also likely true that lead aircraft emissions post almost no threat to the communities surrounding airports. I’m open to any real data, but I’ve yet to see any presented. This doesn’t mean that lead isn’t hazardous or that the goal of eliminating it from the fuel supply isn’t a virtuous pursuit. Regardless of how one feels about the threat of lead, people are right to be concerned that the rhetoric around banishing 100LL is escalating while there is no clear roadmap to get the substitute from approval to distribution.

[N201MKTurbo]

14 minutes ago, Shadrach said:

I don’t think that is at all what’s happening.  I think the major concern is that now that we “have” an approved substitute, 100LL will be regulated into scarcity before the approved substitute is readily available. It is indeed true that TEL is an organic toxin. It’s also likely true that lead aircraft emissions post almost no threat to the communities surrounding airports. I’m open to any real data, but I’ve yet to see any presented. This doesn’t mean that lead isn’t hazardous or that the goal of eliminating it from the fuel supply isn’t a virtuous pursuit. Regardless of how one feels about the threat of lead, people are right to be concerned that the rhetoric around banishing 100LL is escalating while there is no clear roadmap to get the substitute from approval to distribution.

I couldn't agree more. The regulation should be that 100LL cannot be discontinued until there is an equivalent supply of a substitute readily available.  

It seems like most here would use it if given the choice.  Market forces are more palatable than government mandates. 

[Pinecone]

The only thing from preventing us from burning G100UL tomorrow is inertia.

Any refinery should be able to produce it now.  It is commonly made components that need to be mixed in the proper proportions.  Not rocket science.

[Shadrach]

2 hours ago, Pinecone said:

The only thing from preventing us from burning G100UL tomorrow is inertia.

Any refinery should be able to produce it now.  It is commonly made components that need to be mixed in the proper proportions.  Not rocket science.

Perhaps. Think about the fact that this "secret sauce" was understood around the time the M20 airframe was issued a TCDS.  What prevented it from being adopted was the adherence to ASTM guidelines. As you rightly state above, all ingredients are commonly made and readily available. The hurdles are administrative, financial and regulatory. Those hurdles have always been. George just happened to be the right guy, with the right equipment, expertise and tenacity to push it through at a time when it was politically expedient to approve the product. It certainly helps that it appears to out performs 100LL in most meaningful ways...though I'm still waiting to learn of G100UL's inevitable short comings outside price and not meeting ASTM guidelines.  

So now we have a boutique avgas cocktail patented by an individual that is not in the business of producing petroleum products.

We would not be here if the industry had been able to to develop and adopt a variable timing ignition to allow for the use of lower octane fuel. 

 

 

[Pinecone]

2 hours ago, Shadrach said:

We would not be here if the industry had been able to to develop and adopt a variable timing ignition to allow for the use of lower octane fuel. 

 

 

George has that also.

He just needs to tilt at that windmill.

 

[Shadrach]

18 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

George has that also.

He just needs to tilt at that windmill.

 

Indeed, I know that he does.  I had hoped we'd get there first.

[N201MKTurbo]

it is impossible to recover the HP loss from using lower octane fuel. While you can detune our engines to run on lower octane fuel, the takeoff HP will be lower. There is no electronic magic that will change that. 

[jaylw314]

On 10/16/2022 at 6:44 AM, Pinecone said:

And then, make sure that there is no other possible exposure that could give you the same results.  Correlation does not mean causation.

"Correlation does not mean causation" is only correct most of the time.  There has to be a point of sufficient evidence that the strength of correlation does mean causation for all intents and purposes.  That's how science works, otherwise, we'd still be banging the rocks together.   The tobacco industry had used that argument for decades.

In the case of lead causing health problems, that ship had sailed even long before it was used in gasoline with the immense amount of medical data throughout history.  Heck, even the makers of TEL called themselves  the "Ethyl Corp" because they figured "Lead" in their name would be bad PR.

On 10/16/2022 at 6:37 AM, Pinecone said:

It is documented in children with poor diets.

It is documented in all children with lead paint chips.  Remember, lead salts taste sweet.

You're thinking of the medical condition "pica", I believe.  That is associated with but certainly not limited to people with poor nutrition.

5 hours ago, Shadrach said:

Regardless of how one feels about the threat of lead, people are right to be concerned that the rhetoric around banishing 100LL is escalating while there is no clear roadmap to get the substitute from approval to distribution.

The corollary that follows is that regardless of how one feels about the threat of 100LL being banned, people are right to be concerned about lead itself.

[midlifeflyer]

5 hours ago, Shadrach said:

I don’t think that is at all what’s happening.  I think the major concern is that now that we “have” an approved substitute, 100LL will be regulated into scarcity before the approved substitute is readily available. It is indeed true that TEL is an organic toxin. It’s also likely true that lead aircraft emissions post almost no threat to the communities surrounding airports. I’m open to any real data, but I’ve yet to see any presented. This doesn’t mean that lead isn’t hazardous or that the goal of eliminating it from the fuel supply isn’t a virtuous pursuit. Regardless of how one feels about the threat of lead, people are right to be concerned that the rhetoric around banishing 100LL is escalating while there is no clear roadmap to get the substitute from approval to distribution.

Now, after ignoring it for decades.

[Fly Boomer]

6 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

I think often the rush to ban something that we don’t study the replacement, and sometimes the replacement is just as bad or worse.

Chemicals are a good example.  EPA fights a 20-year battle to get some chemical banned, corporations pay the 29-cent fine, and instantly jump to a very similar but even more poisonous chemical they have had in their back pocket since soon after they began to use the original chemical.  Then they find a third replacement for the second chemical, which they will need in another 20 years when chemical two is outlawed.