Love of flying in the Time of Coronavirus

ilovecornfields · March 12, 2020

1 hour ago, Davidv said:

Agreed.

This graphic may have made people chuckle about a month ago but now it's pretty irrelevant. Last I checked, all of those diseases were hyped but none had proven community spread anywhere near what we are seeing here. So yes, the media has a natural incentive to create hype for eyeballs, but this graphic is starting to look a lot "the world is flat" propaganda.

I don’t know if it was ever funny, I think it’s just a marker of ignorance and misinformation. These days, people go by their feelings and what the influencers say on the internet, not what scientists say or what the data shows.

I would guess that the people amused by that graphic have no significant medical knowledge and a disregard or fundamental lack of understanding of science and medicine.

West Nile - Seen it. Diagnosed it. Seen at least two people neurologically devastated by it. Still around.

SARS - Nasty disease. Didn’t become a pandemic like COVID-19 for multiple reasons but no one would have been laughing if it had.

Bird Flu - don’t have much to say about that.

Swine Flu - Saw it. Had it. Personally saw several people die from it. Young people. I was in the ICU at the time and the ER would call me to admit a patient who was on a nasal cannula. An hour later they would be intubated, on pressors. Put in several chest tubes when they would pop a lung on the oscillator in the middle of the night. Was up late at night begging the CCU fellow for an ECMO bed so my patient wouldn’t die that night. I got it before the vaccine came out and it’s the sickest I’ve even been in my life.

Ebola - Nasty disease. It was contained but I guarantee you no one in Sub-Saharan Africa thinks it’s funny.

Zika - it was never going to “kill us all.” It was mostly a concern for pregnant women.

COVID-19 - We’ll see. Just got off a conference call with my department, hospital CEO and public health. They certainly don’t think it’s a joke and neither do I.

Go ahead and laugh. When you get sick and the hospital is full, there are no ICU beds and you’re stuck in a room with a bunch of other people who look like they’re ready to check out you’ll appreciate the good times you had...

Edit: This guy does a better job explaining this than I do.

https://apple.news/AIscMOLPdT6-PZiY-f6q33w

Edited March 12, 2020 by ilovecornfields
Added link

Davidv · March 12, 2020

1 minute ago, ilovecornfields said:

I don’t know if it was ever funny, I think it’s just a marker of ignorance and misinformation. These days, people go by their feelings and what the influencers say on the internet, not what scientists say or what the data shows.

I would guess that the people amused by that graphic have no significant medical knowledge and a disregard or fundamental lack of understanding of science and medicine.

West Nile - Seen it. Diagnosed it. Seen at least two people neurologically devastated by it. Still around.

SARS - Nasty disease. Didn’t become a pandemic like COVID-19 for multiple reasons but no one would have been laughing if it had.

Bird Flu - don’t have much to say about that.

Swine Flu - Saw it. Had it. Personally saw several people die from it. Young people. I was in the ICU at the time and the ER would call me to admit a patient who was on a nasal cannula. An hour later they would be intubated, on pressors. Put in several chest tubes when they would pop a lung on the oscillator in the middle of the night. Was up late at night begging the CCU fellow for an ECMO bed so my patient wouldn’t die that night. I got it before the vaccine came out and it’s the sickest I’ve even been in my life.

Ebola - Nasty disease. It was contained but I guarantee you no one in Sub-Saharan Africa thinks it’s funny.

Zika - it was never going to “kill us all.” It was mostly a concern for pregnant women.

COVID-19 - We’ll see. Just got off a conference call with my department, hospital CEO and public health. They certainly don’t think it’s a joke and neither do I.

Go ahead and laugh. When you get sick and the hospital is full, there are no ICU beds and you’re stuck in a room with a bunch of other people who look like they’re ready to check out you’ll appreciate the good times you had...

Yes I don't think anyone is laughing so that may have been a mis-characterization in my post. I was trying to come up with an alternative description of the emotion this poster is trying to evoke other than the term "woke" (which is by far my most hated word in the English language). I can't believe I just wrote it.

ilovecornfields · March 12, 2020

3 minutes ago, Davidv said:

Yes I don't think anyone is laughing so that may have been a mis-characterization in my post. I was trying to come up with an alternative description of the emotion this poster is trying to evoke other than the term "woke" (which is by far my most hated word in the English language). I can't believe I just wrote it.

My apologies. I think you get it. You’re not the one I’m frustrated with.

**Jeph357** · March 12, 2020

2 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Thank you for your informed and helpful addition to the discussion.

Not really an informed or helpful addition to the discussion at all as much as it is my opinion on it. There are viruses that manifest themselves all the time. I feel like everytime a new one comes up it is over-sensationalized and panic is what follows. Every one of the viruses mentioned in the meme and others have built the momentum of panic and hype to feed the next one. Hopefully this is not black death or influenza type of devastation. Just take the same precautions you do to avoid any other types of sickness or disease. Also after traveling abroad or going somewhere where there are lots of people, don't visit the older people in our life. Or just don't go to those type of events and things. I feel like the over-sensationalization is not only limited to Corona virus i.e. Every storm that is about to hit anywhere is the "worst storm ever" people are easily sent into hyper panic. I steal this quote and I laugh at the source but I agree with it.

"The human race is in grave danger. Thousands of people are showing severe symptoms already and there is no known cure. No, not corona virus, but sheer bloody stupidity."

Dawn Neesom

Scott Dennstaedt, PhD · March 12, 2020

2 hours ago, steingar said:

Because of this nonsense I'm teaching remotely on-line, and I don't like it one bit. I bet this lasts the rest of the semester, I can't see things getting any better in a couple weeks.

I teach remotely every day and love, love, love it! No commute. Hell, I can even teach in my PJs if I wanted to! I suspect this will spark colleges and universities all over the world to start thinking more seriously about online instruction as a replacement for F2F instruction. Instructors better get used to this as the future or they will end up like Blockbuster did with video rentals.

Scott Dennstaedt, PhD · March 12, 2020

13 minutes ago, Jeph357 said:

Also after traveling abroad or going somewhere where there are lots of people, don't visit the older people in our life. Or just don't go to those type of events and things.

You think most people are that sensible? My friend, they are not. And it doesn't work that way, because if you come home from a trip and are infected (and don't know it) and spread it to your spouse who is feeling quite well and goes into a nursing home to visit her aging parent like she's done for the last two years, what now? There are way too many cases where people really don't know where they got it from and don't meet the criteria you think is the most common issue. That's the problem here. It's not like you have a big C on your chest as soon as you come in contact with the virus.

**aviatoreb** · March 12, 2020

14 hours ago, Scott Dennstaedt said:

I teach remotely every day and love, love, love it! No commute. Hell, I can even teach in my PJs if I wanted to! I suspect this will spark colleges and universities all over the world to start thinking more seriously about online instruction as a replacement for F2F instruction. Instructors better get used to this as the future or they will end up like Blockbuster did with video rentals.

I teach at university. Online teaching has already been sweeping in to universities across the country. In some the technology provided is suitable for each of the different kinds of class needs. In some not. They can't just give us an iPad with a pen and say go at it. There are different needs say for a history class, where assignments are writing based and reading discussions, vs a math "chalk and talk" class delivered online perhaps by showing the board, perhaps by a light board, perhaps yes writing on a iPad with an ipen. But it is very different again in a class with a large amount of computer codes to be written, and labs to be handled where you help students debug their codes, and hand in codes to be tested - and there is a coming wave of software to help with handling this in a large group grading environment. And then again, consider wet lab classes, chem labs, bio labs, technologies.

So all I am saying is there is far from a one size fits all solution across the board and it has already been a very active discussion, study and movement across universities. Mine, and my own teaching classrooms included. Before CV19. CV19 will force a quick and perhaps non optimal adaptation temporarily and perhaps it will accelerate the movement a bit. But with or without, its coming.

Oh, one more complication, we are asked often to teach in the mixed environment, with people in a room, and people online, to keep them all usefully engaged synchronously, which is very different from asynchronous teaching (eg say videos), or the not mixed synchronous environments (either all FF in classroom or all online). Mixed is the most difficult.

I enjoy my commute too. Its 6 min by car or 12 min by bicycle. College town living.

Edited March 13, 2020 by aviatoreb

**aviatoreb** · March 12, 2020

I was talking to a colleague I am writing a paper with, on Skype today, in London. His university is also closing. My son's at Cornell and also Duke are also closing. Mine is closing. They are closing everywhere. The NBA, the NHL, soccer, NCAA basketball, hockey, Broadway, and lots more...closing. Public schools in MD and Ohio closing, and I am sure many more/most in days to come. This is serious stuff.

ilovecornfields · March 12, 2020

33 minutes ago, Jeph357 said:

Not really an informed or helpful addition to the discussion at all as much as it is my opinion on it. There are viruses that manifest themselves all the time. I feel like everytime a new one comes up it is over-sensationalized and panic is what follows. Every one of the viruses mentioned in the meme and others have built the momentum of panic and hype to feed the next one. Hopefully this is not black death or influenza type of devastation. Just take the same precautions you do to avoid any other types of sickness or disease. Also after traveling abroad or going somewhere where there are lots of people, don't visit the older people in our life. Or just don't go to those type of events and things. I feel like the over-sensationalization is not only limited to Corona virus i.e. Every storm that is about to hit anywhere is the "worst storm ever" people are easily sent into hyper panic. I steal this quote and I laugh at the source but I agree with it.

"The human race is in grave danger. Thousands of people are showing severe symptoms already and there is no known cure. No, not corona virus, but sheer bloody stupidity."

Dawn Neesom

With all due respect, you have no idea what you are talking about and your statements are not internally consistent. May I ask what you base your informed opinion on? You say "hopefully this is not black death or influenza type of devastation" but two of the pictures on your meme are from influenza.

What are you trying to say, exactly, and why do you feel that you know how to respond to this better than the CDC?

**Jeph357** · March 12, 2020

Not really an informed or helpful addition to the discussion at all as much as it is my opinion on it. There are viruses that manifest themselves all the time. I feel like everytime a new one comes up it is over-sensationalized and panic is what follows. Every one of the viruses mentioned in the meme and others have built the momentum of panic and hype to feed the next one. Hopefully this is not black death or influenza type of devastation. Just take the same precautions you do to avoid any other types of sickness or disease. ~~Also after traveling abroad or going somewhere where there are lots of people, don't visit the older people in our life. Or just don't go to those type of events and things.~~ I feel like the over-sensationalization is not only limited to Corona virus i.e. Every storm that is about to hit anywhere is the "worst storm ever" people are easily sent into hyper panic. I steal this quote and I laugh at the source but I agree with it.

"The human race is in grave danger. Thousands of people are showing severe symptoms already and there is no known cure. No, not corona virus, but sheer bloody stupidity."

Dawn Neesom

27 minutes ago, Scott Dennstaedt said:

You think most people are that sensible? My friend, they are not. And it doesn't work that way, because if you come home from a trip and are infected (and don't know it) and spread it to your spouse who is feeling quite well and goes into a nursing home to visit her aging parent like she's done for the last two years, what now? There are way too many cases where people really don't know where they got it from and don't meet the criteria you think is the most common issue. That's the problem here. It's not like you have a big C on your chest as soon as you come in contact with the virus.

I agree!

I apologize for going off topic.

1. Are you altering your flying plans or pre/post activities due to corona virus?

Yes-

No- X

Undecided-

2. If you are altering your plans, what are you changing?

Nothing, everything is staying the same - X

Less travel-

Avoiding certain places-

Cleaning or disinfecting pre/post flight-

**Hank** · March 12, 2020

13 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I was talking to a colleague I am writing a paper with, on Skype today, in London. His university is also closing. My son's at Cornell and also Duke are also closing. Mine is closing. They are closing everywhere. The NBA, the NHL, soccer, NCAA basketball, hockey, Broadway, and lots more...closing. Public schools in MD and Ohio closing, and I am sure many more/most in days to come. This is serious stuff.

College here just closed for 30 days. My alma mater, Auburn University. Tomorrow was supposed to be the final basketball game of the season before the tournaments. Guess that's done, too.

**Jeph357** · March 13, 2020

49 minutes ago, Jeph357 said:

¹Not really an informed or helpful addition to the discussion at all as much as it is my opinion on it. There are viruses that manifest themselves all the time. I feel like everytime a new one comes up it is over-sensationalized and panic is what follows. Every one of the viruses mentioned in the meme and others have built the momentum of panic and hype to feed the next one. Hopefully this is not black death or influenza type of devastation. Just take the same precautions you do to avoid any other types of sickness or disease. ~~Also after traveling abroad or going somewhere where there are lots of people, don't visit the older people in our life. Or just don't go to those type of events and things.~~ I feel like the over-sensationalization is not only limited to Corona virus i.e. Every storm that is about to hit anywhere is the "worst storm ever" people are easily sent into hyper panic. I steal this quote and I laugh at the source but I agree with it.

"The human race is in grave danger. Thousands of people are showing severe symptoms already and there is no known cure. No, not corona virus, but sheer bloody stupidity."

Dawn Neesom

With all due respect, you have no idea what you are talking about and your statements are not internally consistent. ¹May I ask what you base your informed opinion on? You say "hopefully this is not black death or influenza type of devastation" but two of the pictures on your meme are from influenza.

What are you trying to say, exactly, and why do you feel that you know how to respond to this better than the CDC?

When I referenced influenza I was referring to the 1918 version (500 million lives? could be wrong) sorry for the confusion..

Furthermore I don't see anywhere in my response talking about the CDC, or their response or knowing better than anyone. I simply stated "Just take the same precautions you do to avoid any other types of sickness or disease."

I never once claimed to be a subject matter expert, I did however claim it to be my opinion.

WARNING !!!! OPINION DO NOT CONTINUE READING IF YOU MAY NOT AGREE WITH THIS AS IT MAY CAUSE FRUSTRATION AND ANGER

My opinion has been known to melt snowflakes when my opinion doesn't align with theirs.

Im also willing to bet that within a year the corona virus will be able to be added to that meme.. (At least I hope so........)

salty · March 13, 2020

I've been wanting to fly the wife and I out to Tucson in the Mooney, but she's been reluctant. She's even more reluctant to fly commercial due to corona. So, we have two long cross country trips planned now for this year. I'm loving it.

salty · March 13, 2020

On 3/10/2020 at 9:23 PM, pmccand said:

I read a post by a well-respected epidemiologist who stated that if it weren’t for the worried population, the disease would quickly spread to its maximum contagious distribution rate and overwhelm the ability of the healthcare system to respond and care for the sick. There is some benefit to some amount of beneficial worry.

Excessive worry is counterproductive when it interferes needlessly with daily activities. I have a personal threshold of worry that I am comfortable with and that is that I personally don’t think it prudent to seek out Petri dishes such as booking cruises, taking the subway, flying commercial airlines, or going to expos or conventions such as Sun and Fun. I do have a booth at Sun and Fun and my business demands that I have a corporate presence for customers who have the Alfred E. Newman “What, Me worry” approach to this recent outbreak and decide to go anyway.

Since I am not comfortable about going, I will be modifying my exposure while there. My plans are to set up the booth then take it down at the end of the week, but I will likely not be manning the booth during the show. Instead, I will be automating a self-serve kiosk with computer touch screens available for those who have questions or want to order a product. I don’t thing I am over reacting to this virus, I am being prudent.

So, you're providing a convenient way for all your customers to infect each other while you avoid them. Interesting business plan.

ilovecornfields · March 13, 2020

Well guys and girls, it's here. Saw my first case today. Disneyland is closed. Literally and figuratively.

Take care of yourselves.

KLRDMD · March 13, 2020

5 hours ago, salty said:

I've been wanting to fly the wife and I out to Tucson in the Mooney, but she's been reluctant. She's even more reluctant to fly commercial due to corona. So, we have two long cross country trips planned now for this year. I'm loving it.

Let me know when you're coming to Tucson.

**MooneyMitch** · March 13, 2020

1 hour ago, ilovecornfields said:

Well guys and girls, it's here. Saw my first case today. Disneyland is closed. Literally and figuratively.

Take care of yourselves.

Are you saying we have a COVID-19 case here in San Luis Obispo County?

ilovecornfields · March 13, 2020

50 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said:

Are you saying we have a COVID-19 case here in San Luis Obispo County?

No. I’m not in San Luis Obispo right now.

**Hank** · March 13, 2020

3 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

No. I’m not in San Luis Obispo right now.

Maybe he's visiting Paris. They have a Disneyland. So does Tokyo. Both have COVID-19, too . . . .

"Return of the Black Death," 21st Century style . . . . . So much stoking of fear, misinformation and mass hysteria. "It's here!" "Where?" "Right here where I am!"

True antiviral medications are few and far between, for most viral infections we can only treat symptoms anyway. This, too, shall pass, with less disruption than even the most recent Plague (which was nothing compared to the 14th century one).

Ibra · March 13, 2020

16 hours ago, Davidv said:

Last I checked, all of those diseases were hyped but none had proven community spread anywhere near what we are seeing here

Yes the perceived community spread is bigger for Corona, but not sure if it is exponential spread from infections or just the huge increase in testing capability? hard to know yet as are really in the 0.00001% numbers and with barely 10m people are tested (6m is in China) out of 10bn population, hard to do any meaningful 1% confidence stats on that, although with 100k cases one can start running simulations/scenarios and most of them will just point to armageddon as experts tends to feed wrong numbers

I personally don't believe it is 3 times more infectious and 20 times more deadly than normal winter flu (no medical expertise just guess), I think it is an artefact from unstable parameter estimation on 0.001% infection base (100k now is highly unreliable) and 0.00005% deaths (somehow reliable), we will only know for sure when infection base is about the one for a normal flu (1% of total population, 100m/10bn), this is done by testing more than 10% of population (roughly 100m-1bn people are tested), as of now it is too early to say anything sensible on the medical/science side, so the topic now is fully in the hands of media/politicians...

Interestingly, this was somehow accurately predicted (on Mar19, including Hubei as one of the outbreak location), I mean the virus not the panic, though not sure which one kills more? So fairly confident it is not "something really new" just a normal flu variant and usual prevention does the job even without vaccins...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/

Edited March 13, 2020 by Ibra

ArtVandelay · March 13, 2020

The problem is it’s long incubation period, 2 weeks, possibly longer. That alone makes in more infectious.

Ibra · March 13, 2020

On recent data estimates, the average is about 5days but can go 3 weeks in the 1% tails, but the picture on this is getting much clearer now (vs 24 days average that was estimated or reported in Dec19)

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

Edited March 13, 2020 by Ibra

chrisk · March 13, 2020

16 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

They ARE undercounting. On purpose. They only have a limited number of test kits so they are usually only looking for COVID-19 in people with significant disease or direct contact. This is good because the mortality rate for all comers is probably lower than what they’re publishing but it’s also misleading because the true prevalence of disease is much higher than what the numbers are saying.

There was recently an article by an epidemiologist who estimated that by the time the first confirmed case was announced in a community there were probably between 100-500 people in the community already infected.

My guess is the reason it’s spread so quickly is due to fomite transmission and this is why the CDC is reminding people to wash their hands and not touch their face.

I would see patients remotely if that were an option, but for my job it isn’t.

I completely agree. The mortality rate will certainly look higher if you ignore all the folks with mild symptoms. As to intentionally under counting, it seems a possibility. --And I'd like to see real reporting on this issue. As far as the number of confirmed cases vs unconfirmed: When some one asks me if the corona virus is in my town (Austin Tx), I just laugh and say "You would be naive to believe it is not here. With the volume of travel its here. It just hasn't been detected yet. Give it a few weeks."

Today the public health department in Austin Tx just announced the first two cases. Lots of urging folks to trust in the health department, but they failed to provide any real useful information. --Like places where the people with the corona virus might have visited, so potentially exposed folks might practice social distancing. The failure to present simple facts leads to a general distrust of that organization. Open and honest communications are so important in times like this.

**Hank** · March 13, 2020

Right now, most "information" being published is either A) media stoking fear, ti get clicks for advertising; or politicians stoking fear for gain over their political rivals during the election period.

I'm still waiting for real information. The best I've heard is a recommendation to visit the CDC's website, but even that bit of information (the web address) is not being given . . . .

Spread fear, stoke hysteria, provide no information, because that doesn't result in near as many website clicks . . . . .

I'm outa here . . . . . . When someone has real information, please post it. I have seen precious little so far.

**aviatoreb** · March 13, 2020

29 minutes ago, Hank said:

Right now, most "information" being published is either A) media stoking fear, ti get clicks for advertising; or politicians stoking fear for gain over their political rivals during the election period.

I'm still waiting for real information. The best I've heard is a recommendation to visit the CDC's website, but even that bit of information (the web address) is not being given . . . .

Spread fear, stoke hysteria, provide no information, because that doesn't result in near as many website clicks . . . . .

I'm outa here . . . . . . When someone has real information, please post it. I have seen precious little so far.

Hank I couldn't disagree with you more. This thing is for real. This is a massive public emergency. As surely as when a hurricane is bearing down on a beach town and it is a good idea to board up your house and perhaps evacuate, this is a major pandemic bearing down on us. There are always those people who stay in their house on the beach with a category 5 hurricane bearing down.

I will go with Angel Merckel's report of what her public health epidemiology advisors are telling her. She reported that she expects 60-70% of German's to be infected. She is a PhD biochemist and she knows how to use scientific information, and how to defer to the specialists in a given topic and how to interpret their advice.

I found it very gratifying our resident meteorologist - a man who understands forecasting weather and the importance of the public reacting to dire forecasts when they come - understands how to trust public officials from a different scientific field. And Scott cancelled his trip to Sun n Fun.

Reports from Italy are an example of how bad this situation can get if not managed well. Even if managed well it will be very very impactful. It is extraordinarily important to do what is possible to slow this down since it will potentially make the difference of 10's or 100's of millions of people dead across the world.

Hank if you would define the phrase "real information" in a manner that is informative that would be great. Meanwhile, first hand reports from doctors in Italy, a report from people in Milan who's sister died a few days ago in her appartment with her and the morgue is too busy to come get her and it was 36 hours by the time of that report, and generally from public health official warnings are real information as far as I'm concerned, are information enough for me. I don't agree with the anti-information anti-science anti-media everything is a hoax crowd. I don't need to wait directly to see my neighbors or family in dire straights to start to react.

I'm not sure if this qualifies as "real information" but this report from 2007 about 1918 suggests that 1% is a critical threshold to be avoided if possible. https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

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Love of flying in the Time of Coronavirus

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1. Are you altering your flying plans or pre/post flight activities due to coronavirus?

2. If you are altering your plans, what are you changing?

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