Mooney down in Atlantic

[chrisk]

Every time this happens, I feel so conflicted.  The pilot in me wants to know why.  I think what decisions would I have made.  Would I have done something different?   I feel I should learn from others and not make the mistake they paid for.   And my heart goes out to the loved ones.  -- In this case, I think I would have waited out the weather.  That said, it sounds like the things that went wrong were more likely to be pilot incapacitation, probably hypoxia.   

[IndyTim]

No contact with ATC for 2 hrs prior to lost radar contact if this report is true.

http://m.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/ntsb-no-radio-contact-from-aircraft-for-two-hours-prior/article_57330500-57f5-11e5-8987-7b62101c438b.html?mode=jqm

 

Above FL18 the game really changes. So sad. We will be reaching out to Jean.

No communication on an IFR plan as he was handed off from center to center?  He was capable enough to initiate the descent, but not able to communicate?  That doesn't add up.  I wonder if it was a comms failure.

[DXB]

Sounds like hypoxia or some other source of incapacitation, if no contact for 2 hrs, before weather was a factor.  Doubt he would choose to press on IFR with  radio failure happening that early in the flight, or not squawk 7600.  I don't know the systems on his plane to surmise why descent started where it did- I'd expect fuel exhaustion to have come later.   Or perhaps it was not complete incapacitation.   Sadly we may never know.

Edited September 11, 2015 by DXB

[DonMuncy]

Just my random thoughts:

With no radio communications for 2 hours, and presumably no "lost com" transponder code, I would speculate the far and away most likely scenario would be oxygen lack/failure. I assume that if someone programs a GPS route with Atlantic City as a destination, but with no STAR or approach activated, an autopilot would take the plane to the airport and continue to circle back to the airport repeatedly until the fuel ran out. Does anyone know a programmable routing that would take the plane out over the ocean and quit. Has anyone done any calculations about the distance, fuel capacity and fuel burn on an Acclaim. Even if the plane ran out of fuel, it is hard to imagine the reported rate of descent. A lot more questions than answers.

[IndyTim]

No contact with ATC for 2 hrs prior to lost radar contact if this report is true.

http://m.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/ntsb-no-radio-contact-from-aircraft-for-two-hours-prior/article_57330500-57f5-11e5-8987-7b62101c438b.html?mode=jqm

 

Above FL18 the game really changes. So sad. We will be reaching out to Jean.

Mike I agree.  I used to fly FL230 or 240 in 252BH.  The speed up high, especially heading east, can be seductive.  But after 2 different oxygen incidents up high, my max altitude is FL210 now, and alot of my flights are 11000 to 17000.

[mike_elliott]

The g700 can capture top of decent on a g1000 and fly it down. I believe you have to acknowledge the annunciation, however.

[carqwik]

The plane got to ACY on one tank...that's why it fell out of the sky where it did.  According to Flightaware, he flew for 2:51 and assuming 50 gals (normal) or with 65 gals (long range tanks), that's either 17.7 gph or 23.0 gph which would be in the range of fuel flow for that model at his speeds.  He ran the tank dry and the plane did what it did....  Given the prior posts of 2+ hours of NORDO and the descent profile (no engine), the hypoxic or sudden (and likely fatal) medical condition is the most probable of any likely scenarios as a cause of the accident.  Tragic circumstance but not likely due to a plane fault (other than perhaps loss of O2).

[DXB]

Makes a lot of sense

[N601RX]

How much data does the Garmin panel store?

[chrisk]

Just my random thoughts:

With no radio communications for 2 hours, and presumably no "lost com" transponder code, I would speculate the far and away most likely scenario would be oxygen lack/failure. I assume that if someone programs a GPS route with Atlantic City as a destination, but with no STAR or approach activated, an autopilot would take the plane to the airport and continue to circle back to the airport repeatedly until the fuel ran out. Does anyone know a programmable routing that would take the plane out over the ocean and quit. Has anyone done any calculations about the distance, fuel capacity and fuel burn on an Acclaim. Even if the plane ran out of fuel, it is hard to imagine the reported rate of descent. A lot more questions than answers.

I can imagine a high descent rate if the engine was not running, the blades at max RPM and the plane trimmed for 140KTS indicated.

[Houman]

The plane got to ACY on one tank...that's why it fell out of the sky where it did.  According to Flightaware, he flew for 2:51 and assuming 50 gals (normal) or with 65 gals (long range tanks), that's either 17.7 gph or 23.0 gph which would be in the range of fuel flow for that model at his speeds.  He ran the tank dry and the plane did what it did....  Given the prior posts of 2+ hours of NORDO and the descent profile (no engine), the hypoxic or sudden (and likely fatal) medical condition is the most probable of any likely scenarios as a cause of the accident.  Tragic circumstance but not likely due to a plane fault (other than perhaps loss of O2).

I wonder if ATC could'nt reach him for 2h and no 7600, then would'nt military jets be deployed to intercept and check it out, specially not too far from NY and Boston airspace ?

If so, no public report of it was made that I know off...

Edited September 11, 2015 by Houman

[gsxrpilot]

The plane got to ACY on one tank...that's why it fell out of the sky where it did.  According to Flightaware, he flew for 2:51 and assuming 50 gals (normal) or with 65 gals (long range tanks), that's either 17.7 gph or 23.0 gph which would be in the range of fuel flow for that model at his speeds.  He ran the tank dry and the plane did what it did....  Given the prior posts of 2+ hours of NORDO and the descent profile (no engine), the hypoxic or sudden (and likely fatal) medical condition is the most probable of any likely scenarios as a cause of the accident.  Tragic circumstance but not likely due to a plane fault (other than perhaps loss of O2).

This scenario makes a lot of sense. I was stumped on the fuel, knowing 3 hours is easy in an Acclaim in the flight levels. And no one would go IFR with only enough fuel to get 7 miles past your destination. But of course, that assumes that you're switching tanks properly. And if incapacitated, you wouldn't be switching tanks.

I wonder if by the time the scenario got to the point of calling for the military to intercept, he was IMC? If the two hours of no contact is accurate, he would have only been about 45 minutes off the ground. Then the single tank all the way to ACY makes perfect sense.

I guess we can be thankful he made it to the ocean and didn't go down in a populated area.

[LANCECASPER]

I think that point is mute, he went, for what ever reason or reasoning he used, I think most would agree that the weather situation was not optimal or far far from it.

I think we should look at the facts and the NTSB investiguation that will follow and learn from that, we were not in that plane, so we can't be sure what really happend until we have some hard facts.

My opinion only !!!

 

 

Not to be too picky, but it's a "moot" point, not a "mute" point.   : )

moot1

 

 

[moot] 

Spell Syllables

• Synonyms
• Examples
• Word Origin

adjective

1.

open to discussion or debate; debatable; doubtful:

a moot point.

2.

of little or no practical value or meaning; purely academic.

3.

Chiefly Law. not actual; theoretical; hypothetical.

 

mute

 

 

[myoot] 

Spell Syllables

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adjective, muter, mutest.

1.

silent; refraining from speech or utterance.

2.

not emitting or having sound of any kind.

3.

incapable of speech; dumb.

4.

(of letters) silent; not pronounced.

5.

Law. (of a person who has been arraigned) making no plea or givingan irrelevant response when arraigned, or refusing to stand trial(used chiefly in the phrase to stand mute).

6.

Fox Hunting. (of a hound) hunting a line without giving tongue or cry.

 

Edited September 11, 2015 by LANCECASPER

[carqwik]

I should clarify my previous post....I really should have said that the plane ran at FL250 until out of fuel on the one tank that was in use at the time of the pilot's incapacitation.  Clearly it had just enough fuel on that one tank from that point to get past ACY...but if on autopilot, then why does the track (on flight aware) continue straight into the ocean?  If as someone else said, if that's the last point in the flight plan in the box, do we know for sure that the A/P will just circle at that point?  Anyone with a G1000 or GFC700 PIM? 

Edited September 11, 2015 by carqwik
add text

[Marauder]

No contact with ATC for 2 hrs prior to lost radar contact if this report is true.

http://m.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/ntsb-no-radio-contact-from-aircraft-for-two-hours-prior/article_57330500-57f5-11e5-8987-7b62101c438b.html?mode=jqm

Above FL18 the game really changes. So sad. We will be reaching out to Jean.

Mike -- if the article is correct, then he would have been at 25,000 and most likely on autopilot. Isn't it unusual that we see no news reports of anyone intercepting the plane for the 2 hours while communication was lost?

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[gsxrpilot]

I think the tank ran dry 4nm SHORT of ACY. Would the A/P disconnect if the prop quits turning? It makes sense to me why there's no turn shown in the track. If the tank ran dry while still at FL250, then the plane went approximately another 28 miles before hitting the water.

[Marauder]

I think the tank ran dry 4nm SHORT of ACY. Would the A/P disconnect if the prop quits turning? It makes sense to me why there's no turn shown in the track. If the tank ran dry while still at FL250, then the plane went approximately another 28 miles before hitting the water.

If this is an Acclaim with a G700, I don't know how the autopilot would behave. On my autopilot, I'm pretty sure it would continue to hold altitude until it stalled and at some point disconnect. The G700 may have upset recovery or other functions.

[Shadrach]

What would the ALT hold do in the event of engine out? Would it continue adding up elevator in an attempt to maintain altitude? Is it possible that it Autopilot held enough up aileron to eventually cause a stall?

Edited September 12, 2015 by Shadrach

[PTK]

Would have been a no go for me.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It was a no go for me.

I was all ready to go and my wife was going to join me. We were looking forward to it.

But scrubbed it last minute.

 

 

Edited September 11, 2015 by PTK

[N601RX]

My 50 year old Brittain Altitude hold senses speed and will lower the nose if the speed drops.  It seems like the descent was stable down to 12,000 and then something happened.

[thinwing]

on my kfc 225 with alt hold engaged ,elevator pitch is commanded in a futile attempt to maintain altitude with a dead engine.I see this all the time when i reduce throttle for a descent and leave the alt hold at old altitude..the airspeed drops...how low and enough to cause a stall or will it simply trip off..i have no idea ..nothing covers such a situation in the manual...700 desighner should weigh in ...

[Guest]

What would the ALT hold do in the event of engine out? Would it continue adding up aileron in an attempt to maintain altitude? Is it possible that it Autopilot held enough up aileron to eventually cause a stall?

I don't think the ailerons have much to do with ALT hold?

Clarence

[Piloto]

At FL250 is a good idea to verify the oxygen level in your blood with a finger oximeter. A kink on the mask oxygen line could go un-noticed and knock you down. Or the last oxygen refill could have been done with just plain air. A heavy meal prior to flight can get you in siesta mode, specially for those over 60. 

José 

[donkaye]

Speculation---

First I don't think he should have gone at the time he did.  I see he was an experienced pilot with a Commercial rating who had been flying for 40 years, so the fact that he did is surprising.   I learned long ago that, at least for me, I don't much care for the flight levels in an unpressurized airplane.  The body doesn't react very well.  15-18K is good enough and leaves more time of useful consciousness if O2 problems develop. On long trips where it might be necessary to go higher safely, I take along a secondary O2 tank that can quickly be used in the event of failure of the primary tank.  It's really necessary to do a Chamber ride if you plan to go high.  You just have to know your hypoxic signals  and react quickly.  This implies having several pulse oximeters at hand and using them at the first sign of hypoxia.  A few years ago I was ferrying a 231 to Colorado.  The plane did not have a built in oxygen system.  I carried several O2 tanks and flew at 17K.  I switched tanks in the middle of the flight and after a few minutes felt light headed.  I checked the pulse oximeter and it said 85%.  Turns out I had turned the valve the wrong direction.  I quickly turned it the right direction and felt better immediately.   You just have to know your symptoms.

While its possible it was a heart attack, I think it more likely a hypoxia incident and most likely he would be alive today had he just not gone.

Assuming the AP was in altitude hold mode,  I think it would have held altitude until the stall after the plane exhausted the full in one of the tanks, and then tried hold altitude with the elevator back in the descent. Thus the low speed in the descent.  I don't know if it would hold wings level in the descent (my KFC 150 won't) and I never tried it with the GFC 700, but at some point maybe the AP disconnected and with the fuel imbalance between the full tank and the empty one the airplane went into a steep spiral.   That may have occurred at 13,000 feet where the descent rate dramatically increased.

Of course, all just pure speculation on my part....

 

Edited September 11, 2015 by donkaye

[Nemesis]

Firstly and most important, I offer my condolences to the Moir family. I never met Michael but I know many in the Mooney community feel a loss when we hear of these terrible accidents.

Regarding the AP, I think Don is correct about how the Altitude Hold would react after engine out, using elevator to try and maintain altitude and thereby slowing during much of the decent until disconnect and then the resulting near vertical dive with almost no forward ground speed. As far as direction, the AP will only follow what the GPS would be telling it to do. As I remember it, after passing the last waypoint in my old King 89B GPS, the GPS unit goes into OBS mode and will continue to track the same direction as between the last two waypoints. If My last vector was 125 degrees, the GPS unit will continue to feed the AP with a 125 degree vector.

Dave