go, no-go decision - only LIFR en route

[carusoam]

Dominik,

In the above list of MSers…

1) Three have had significant engine failures in their Mooneys…

In those three… one is really good with statistics….   
 

2) Some of the other responses are coming from pro-pilots with decades safety training to go with their flying experience…. Lots of great logic that applies to Mooney flight…

3) Health issues… IMSAFE…  stuff that we don’t always fear as much as engine health… but equally important…

 

4) Culmination of issues…  what else to consider for the NoGo or delay…

• Long tiring day at work
• No food on the way to the airport
• it gets dark early
• ceilings lower with the temperature declining…
• LIFR everywhere…

5) MS history…  the time engines fail the most…. Many show their evil side within the first year of ownership… usually not destructive… but, not always…

6) the big four…

• Run out of fuel
• Fly VFR into IMC (not this thread’s issue)
• thundertstorms
• icing

 

Continue to ask questions…

It is great to see the myriad responses…

Gives many people some additional ideas to think about…

Go MS!

Best regards,

-a-

 

 

 

[aviatoreb]

23 hours ago, 201er said:

It’s not too much different than flying at night, over mountains, or over water. Yet the vast majority of aviation accidents happen in day VMC. 

You are more likely to have an accident at departure or destination so put greater focus on those.

Stay proficient, take good care of the airplane, and carry lots of fuel. You can mitigate more risk by not fooling around, staying strictly legal, not going below minimums, avoiding stalls, and carrying enough fuel than worrying about what’s underneath you.

There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC.  Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR.  Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.

[aviatoreb]

23 hours ago, 201er said:

It’s not too much different than flying at night, over mountains, or over water. Yet the vast majority of aviation accidents happen in day VMC. 

You are more likely to have an accident at departure or destination so put greater focus on those.

Stay proficient, take good care of the airplane, and carry lots of fuel. You can mitigate more risk by not fooling around, staying strictly legal, not going below minimums, avoiding stalls, and carrying enough fuel than worrying about what’s underneath you.

There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC.  Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR.  Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.

[A64Pilot]

39 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC.  Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR.  Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.

Reminds me of the old advertisements that said most accidents happen within 5 miles of home, inferring that somehow being close to home was unsafe while of course the answer was most driving is done within 5 miles of home.

[ilovecornfields]

13 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC.  Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR.  Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.

Can always count on Professor Pi to bring math and logic to the discussion which was way more entertaining with just conjectures and feelings. I guess the denominator really does matter.

[aviatoreb]

39 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

Can always count on Professor Pie to bring math and logic to the discussion which was way more entertaining with just conjectures and feelings. I guess the denominator really does matter.

Well said / denominators count.

From Professor Pie.  :-)

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by aviatoreb

[201er]

7 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC.  Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR.  Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.

4 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Can always count on Professor Pie to bring math and logic to the discussion which was way more entertaining with just conjectures and feelings. I guess the denominator really does matter.

The reality is that mechanical failure at night or in IMC isn't really all that much of a thing. Pilot screwing up day or night is of significantly greater concern. From the most recent Nall report.

 

 

 

 

[cliffy]

We wreck'm faster than we build them

[aviatoreb]

3 hours ago, 201er said:

The reality is that mechanical failure at night or in IMC isn't really all that much of a thing. Pilot screwing up day or night is of significantly greater concern. From the most recent Nall report.

 

 

 

 

You missed my point entirely?  Im not sure but I will riff anyway.

Let me say it this way - Underwater cave scuba diving is considered very dangerous since on a per dive basis or alternatively on a per hour of exposure basis, it is very very risky.

But death by cave diving "isn't really a thing" because yes, on a total count basis - many many people die every year by slipping and falling in their bathtub.  But bathtubs are not more dangerous.  On a per hour of exposure basis or on a per incident basis.

Its all about the denominator.

If one chooses to fly night ifr in low conditions, just by entering the real of that conditional probability P(crash|fligth night ifr in low conditions) is large, no matter what the means of the danger.  Engine failure, disorientation, flying not at assigned altitude, for whatever reason.

Yes in your data, night IMC crashes there are only 12 such crashes.  That tells me nothing about the risk of night IMC.  Nothing.  Is that 12 out of 100 flights?  Is it 12 out of 100,000 flights?  Vs day VMC is 760 total crashes.    Is that 760 out of 1000 flights?  out of 1,000,000?  It makes a difference what is the denominator to assess the risk.  

What if in a single year there were zero deaths by lion in the usa.  So its not a thing.  Does that make it safe to go sit in a cage with a lion?

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by aviatoreb

[Hank]

34 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

What if in a single year there were zero deaths by lion in the usa.  So its not a thing.  Does that make it safe to go sit in a cage with a lion?

Please tell me more about this! I know some people that I want to give it a try . . . .

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

Please tell me more about this! I know some people that I want to give it a try . . . .

I knew a guy when I was in school that thought it would be hip crunchy granola manly to have a wolf puppy for a pet instead of a dog puppy.  Yah it was a cute baby.  But around 18 months it started acting aggressively and by two years stalking the owner stalking visitors stalking neighborhood kids and had to be put down.  So much for natural crunchy granola.

Me I want a baby elephant!  They are cute!

[ilovecornfields]

4 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I knew a guy when I was in school that thought it would be hip crunchy granola manly to have a wolf puppy for a pet instead of a dog puppy.  Yah it was a cute baby.  But around 18 months it started acting aggressively and by two years stalking the owner stalking visitors stalking neighborhood kids and had to be put down.  So much for natural crunchy granola.

Me I want a baby elephant!  They are cute!

Before I worked I the ER I’d never heard of a “high content wolf dog.” I can now say I’ve met several owners. 

https://wolfsanctuary.co/what-is-a-wolf-dog/

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, ilovecornfields said:

Before I worked I the ER I’d never heard of a “high content wolf dog.” I can now say I’ve met several owners. 

https://wolfsanctuary.co/what-is-a-wolf-dog/

Its really tragic.  These are people who claim to be all natural and in touch with nature who buy animals that will soon need to be put down and even if they don't those animals are nomadic and would never be happy in a house environment.

[Marauder]

Its really tragic.  These are people who claim to be all natural and in touch with nature who buy animals that will soon need to be put down and even if they don't those animals are nomadic and would never be happy in a house environment.

Does this mean I should put Davey Crocie up for adoption? He sure helps keep the kids off of my lawn.




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[Marauder]

You missed my point entirely?  Im not sure but I will riff anyway.
Let me say it this way - Underwater cave scuba diving is considered very dangerous since on a per dive basis or alternatively on a per hour of exposure basis, it is very very risky.
But death by cave diving "isn't really a thing" because yes, on a total count basis - many many people die every year by slipping and falling in their bathtub.  But bathtubs are not more dangerous.  On a per hour of exposure basis or on a per incident basis.
Its all about the denominator.
If one chooses to fly night ifr in low conditions, just by entering the real of that conditional probability P(crash|fligth night ifr in low conditions) is large, no matter what the means of the danger.  Engine failure, disorientation, flying not at assigned altitude, for whatever reason.
Yes in your data, night IMC crashes there are only 12 such crashes.  That tells me nothing about the risk of night IMC.  Nothing.  Is that 12 out of 100 flights?  Is it 12 out of 100,000 flights?  Vs day VMC is 760 total crashes.    Is that 760 out of 1000 flights?  out of 1,000,000?  It makes a difference what is the denominator to assess the risk.  
What if in a single year there were zero deaths by lion in the usa.  So its not a thing.  Does that make it safe to go sit in a cage with a lion?
 

I buy into this theory. The night time denominator is pretty low in my area. The only single in my neck of the woods tonight is a Caravan.



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[carusoam]

MS quote of the day…

 

“What if in a single year there were zero deaths by lion in the usa.  So its not a thing.  

Does that make it safe to go sit in a cage with a lion?”
 

- E. Bollt

 

 

Looks like there is no easy answer for the question being asked…  no chart to scrounge up…

But it sure looks like…

many people don’t fly…

or they don’t fly Mooneys…

or they don’t fly in IMC…

and if they do…

Long exposure to LIFR conditions over a wide area seems to be pretty seldom….

 

Some gave up flying in the dark… where the conditions are really comfortable… 

By the time you get to the chart of people flying Mooneys in IMC, over wide spread LIFR…

It is a need to, more than a want to….

The equipment needs to be in top condition…

The pilot needs to be in tune with his equipment… aka a high level of currency….

 

After that…

You do have to live your life…. Don’t you?

But, don’t get killed, if you don’t have to…

One question…

Who is depending on you to get home?

 

PP thoughts only, not an insurance salesman…

 

Best regards,

-a-

[Ulysse]

On 11/29/2022 at 7:56 AM, kortopates said:

if you have an engine monitor and know how to use it

Is there a way to get training on this? Online classes? Videos? Seminars?

 

[carusoam]

2 minutes ago, Ulysse said:

Is there a way to get training on this? Online classes? Videos? Seminars?

 

Great question Ulysse!

Which engine monitor do you have?

The Savvy website has some interesting info…

@kortopates is the best person to ask…

Best regards,

-a-

[Ulysse]

22 hours ago, carusoam said:

Which engine monitor do you have?

Garmin EIS

I have read articles here and there but it would be nice to have a well structured course 

 

 

[kortopates]

Is there a way to get training on this? Online classes? Videos? Seminars?
 

Not on engine monitor interpretation per se, just presentations, webinars etc.

The first step though is to learn the science or principles of combustion as it relates to our aircraft piston engines. Advanced Pilot Seminars provides a great structured online course for a reasonable cost. Besides that there is no shortage of free articles on the internet by Busch (available on SavvyAviation.Com, Avweb, and YouTube webinar recordings) Deakin pelican perch articles on Avweb and others.
Really lots of material to learn from. Mike has also published many of articles in a growing number of books available on Amazon.


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[rbp]

On 12/1/2022 at 2:58 AM, Ulysse said:

Is there a way to get training on this? Online classes? Videos? Seminars?

 

sit in the cockpit with ground power and the manual. 

[toto]

5 hours ago, kortopates said:

Mike has also published many of articles in a growing number of books available on Amazon.

For anyone who has Kindle Unlimited, all of Busch’s books are included for “free.”

[A64Pilot]

Being that I’m a long time Tech diver and live in cave country it was sort of natural for me to cave dive, 95% of my cave diving was Solo.

Cave diving is actually extraordinarily safe IF and only if you follow the rules. I know of no deaths when the rules were followed, except for re-breather divers, but re-breather accidents seemed to occur at the same rate in open water as they did in overhead environments.

A whole lot of the time people who die in caves aren’t even certified to be there, but as there are no cave police open water divers do occasionally end up in one and kill themselves.

[cliffy]

Cave diving solo? That's the most gutsy thing I've ever heard.

CAT IIIs are a walk in the park in comparison. But then again CAT IIIs never bothered me. 

I used to hand fly to CAT III mins just to stay in practice. 

Anything is easy if you know how

[A64Pilot]

There is a set of people in the cave community that feel safer Solo. We believe it’s often the other guy that cause problems and or you having to deal with their problems, them silting out the cave etc. can get you in trouble, we mitigate not having a buddy with multiple independent systems.

Open water the idea is your buddy is the alternate source of air, but modern cave diving you carry multiple redundant, independent sources of breathing gas, old school you may have had doubles on your back but as they were interconnected sometimes one failure could take them both out. I dove sidemount which meant tanks on your side, each tank has its own regulator and pressure gauge, when I scootered which was most of the time I carried two more tanks we called stage bottles slung under the two regular tanks, each stage bottle had its own independent regulators and pressure gauge. So I had four redundant and independent sources of breathing gas.

So other than just getting lost and running out of air, there just isn’t any failure that can take out multiple independent bottles.

Guy named Forrest Wilson who lives up near Atlanta developed the “Arrow” it’s just a plastic triangle that snaps onto the line every 100’ or so, pointy end always points to the way out. So if you get lost, scooter 100’ and you will come to one of Forrest’s Arrows and it will show you the way out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_marker

I dove with my primary light a 50W HID light Monkey, carried a backup light of course and had two more on my helmet, so four lights, but even with no light we were trained to follow the line out and procedures to find the line etc, but once night adapted my computer put off enough light to find the line.

You only use at most 1/3 of your air on the way in, then you turn, that leaves a third to get out and a third for safety, but as almost all cave diving is springs you go against current in, and with it on the way out so mostly you came out with tanks at half. One of the first rules, called the rule of thirds

Most open water diving is done with a single 80, I dove with at least twin 100’s and usually twin 80’s., often with dual 130’s when scootering so I often had over 400 cu ft of gas or five times what most dive open water, didn’t use it of course, usually only 200 at most.

My SAC rate is .7, meaning at surface pressure I use .7 cu ft of air per min., at 100 ft it’s 2.8 cu ft, so I had almost three hours of gas, 45 min in, 45 min out and an 45 for safety.

An hour and a half at 100’ even with nitrox gives you a significant deco obligation, so we dropped a 40 cu ft bottle of pure O2 at 20’ depth in the beginning of the cave for deco. There was no redundancy there but you could deco on your nitrox just takes longer