More insurance hikes on the way I'm sure...

[jetdriven]

My buddy had a 1400$ quote for his new 1987 201.  Today he called to pay and they raised it to 2300. 

[aviatoreb]

On 3/3/2020 at 3:25 PM, Hyett6420 said:

Wow, the power of mother nature.  Ive felt her wrath sailing enough times, but that is something else.  What causes these tornadoes, ie why dont we get them in Europe but the UsA seems to get quite a few?  

Mostly just certain parts of the USA - knock on wood.  I don't know why though - maybe Scott will show up?

[aviatoreb]

12 minutes ago, jetdriven said:

My buddy had a 1400$ quote for his new 1987 201.  Today he called to pay and they raised it to 2300. 

Yikes.  I am waiting for my coming year's quote.  This year is going to be insurancemagedon for all of us.

E

[aaronk25]

93mill in losses approximately is not chump change, it’s going to be a expensive year for us. But in the big picture, me paying $1000 more a year is nothing compared to what some of these owners are feeling today.




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[Parker_Woodruff]

2 hours ago, jetdriven said:

My buddy had a 1400$ quote for his new 1987 201.  Today he called to pay and they raised it to 2300. 

If the quote is expired, sure (most quotes are good for 60-90 days, but some as low as 30 days).  But short of that or the agent putting incorrect info into the system, this should not happen.

As of this week, another carrier is non-renewing all light piston aircraft policies.  Why they just won't charge what they need to make it worth it to them is beyond me.

[hammdo]

I feel for everyone there, just wow. We see quite a few of those here in Texas. I have a lot of friends and family not far from there. Very scary.

If rates keep going like this, people will consider  rent vs own - but even there the rental rates will adjust.

-Don

[PT20J]

17 minutes ago, Parker_Woodruff said:

If the quote is expired, sure (most quotes are good for 60-90 days, but some as low as 30 days).  But short of that or the agent putting incorrect info into the system, this should not happen.

As of this week, another carrier is non-renewing all light piston aircraft policies.  Why they just won't charge what they need to make it worth it to them is beyond me.

So, how many carriers are left in the market?

[Parker_Woodruff]

17 minutes ago, PT20J said:

So, how many carriers are left in the market?

For Mooneys; off the top of my head there are still 10...and each one of these has a set of parameters where they are competitive.  Some have better policies than others.

- Acceleration Aviation Underwriters

- Aerospace Insurance Managers (Hallmark)

- AIG

- Global Aerospace

- IAT

- London Aviation Underwriters

- Old Republic Aerospace

- Starr Aviation

- USAIG

- USSIC

__________________

Then there is Avemco which works directly with the client.

 

[bill98]

2 hours ago, aaronk25 said:

93mill in losses approximately is not chump change, it’s going to be a expensive year for us. But in the big picture, me paying $1000 more a year is nothing compared to what some of these owners are feeling today.




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What honestly almost broke me today was picking my car up from GPM after having to fly AA back to DFW and it being empty with nothing to put inside of it. 
 

being angry about high insurance rates goes out the door when you are in a situation where it is required. I am extremely fortunate in my situation. @Parker_Woodruff has told me reassuring things, the adjusters have been quick and the Mooneyspace / Mooney Facebook / Facebook aviation groups have been letting me know that everything will be just fine! 
 

I would probably walk out into an oncoming truck if I was in this scenario where I had not purchased insurance, and that’s for a toy. I cannot fathom how people that lost their house and didn’t have any coverage are doing right now. 

[Ibra]

6 hours ago, aaronk25 said:

93mill in losses approximately is not chump change, it’s going to be a expensive year for us. But in the big picture, me paying $1000 more a year is nothing compared to what some of these owners are feeling today.

+100% or double in annual premium to everybody for 100m loss make zero sense IMO: most insurers are well capitalized to cover even third party liabilities (in 10 of billions) not just lost hull values (in 10 of millions), but sadly there will be substantial increase from this unfortunate loss in those hangars, yes 100m is not cheap and the first year for owners & insurers will be tough and may take few years to settle but the biggest long-term damage to insurance market is ending up with few owners & insurers, that will hike prices and risks to both

Edited March 6, 2020 by Ibra

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

19 hours ago, carusoam said:

Another thing that helps the destructive force of the tornado with large buildings... the intense low pressure they can create helps blow doors open... with the pressure differential... over such a short period of time...

 

Actually it's just the pure force of air against the structure that causes the damage, not an "explosion" due to pressure differences.  The old wives' tale that says you should open the doors and windows to equalize the pressure is really the wrong approach. First, if your house doesn't get hit directly, it might suffer water damage.  Second, you are taking valuable time when you should be seeking shelter.  When you open a window or door on the windward side of the house or it gets busted out by debris, it actually weakens the structure by allowing air to penetrate the structure (like opening an umbrella on a windy day) and it'll literally get blown off of its foundation.  

[mike_elliott]

On 3/5/2020 at 9:43 AM, LANCECASPER said:

I wonder if there were cameras anywhere on the airport property - that would make a couple minutes of interesting footage.

There probably were...were being the operative word...now, not so much. Perhaps they can be found in Alabama...

[ArtVandelay]

Actually it's just the pure force of air against the structure that causes the damage, not an "explosion" due to pressure differences.  The old wives' tale that says you should open the doors and windows to equalize the pressure is really the wrong approach.

Scott,
Do you know if this severe weather was expected (predicted)?
I normally in a hangar but when traveling I worry as much about the weather when I’m tied down as I do when I fly. Hail and tornadoes are nightmare scenarios.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

22 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said:

Do you know if this severe weather was expected (predicted)?
I normally in a hangar but when traveling I worry as much about the weather when I’m tied down as I do when I fly. Hail and tornadoes are nightmare scenarios.

Art,

The primary issue is that it happened in the overnight hours, not uncommon with large weather systems like this.  Getting the word out in the middle of the night is much more difficult and it's hard to see these in the distance at night from a reporting perspective.  

The main focus was the western third of the state.  The ensemble forecast models didn't pick the extreme threat near Nashville. However, the Nashville area had been in a slight risk area for severe weather with the primary threat to be tornadoes and hail.  However, the overall intensity was missed in the Nashville area.  This should have been a moderate or even high risk area. But none of the forecast guidance suggested the magnitude of the tornadoes in the Nashville area.  I think this event will be well researched in the coming months or years.    

A tornado watch was issued for the Nashville area 1122 PM CST.  Then as tornadoes developed, there were several severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued.  This progression of events is normal, but the SPC typically wants those watches to go out much earlier than they did for this event.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 3/3/2020 at 3:25 PM, Hyett6420 said:

Wow, the power of mother nature.  Ive felt her wrath sailing enough times, but that is something else.  What causes these tornadoes, ie why dont we get them in Europe but the UsA seems to get quite a few?  

Tornadic thunderstorms happen more often in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world.  You need plenty of warm moisture (Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic) to fuel these storms and you need atmospheric wind shear.  March and April are transition months where we will see large outbreaks of severe convection that don't obey the conventional rules that it's best to fly in morning.  As the jet stream moves further south from Canada during the spring, it provides the upper level support to energize the atmosphere.  Given plenty of low-level boundary layer instability and moisture and an extreme change of wind with height due baroclinic (equator to pole) instability, you get severe weather.  This kind of set up doesn't happen in many other locations around the world.

[aviatoreb]

34 minutes ago, Scott Dennstaedt said:

Tornadic thunderstorms happen more often in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world.  You need plenty of warm moisture (Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic) to fuel these storms and you need atmospheric wind shear.  March and April are transition months where we will see large outbreaks of severe convection that don't obey the conventional rules that it's best to fly in morning.  As the jet stream moves further south from Canada during the spring, it provides the upper level support to energize the atmosphere.  Given plenty of low-level boundary layer instability and moisture and an extreme change of wind with height due baroclinic (equator to pole) instability, you get severe weather.  This kind of set up doesn't happen in many other locations around the world.

Do the Great Lakes create many tornados?

Why don't wee see (knock on wood) tornados this far north (KPTD).  We did have a diricho (spelling) here about 4 or 5 years ago that was quite a thing.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

4 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Do the Great Lakes create many tornados?

Why don't wee see (knock on wood) tornados this far north (KPTD).  We did have a diricho (spelling) here about 4 or 5 years ago that was quite a thing.

Here’s the worse time of the year for tornadoes in the Great Lakes region.  
 

[exM20K]

If you’re an iPhone user, settings->Notifications and scroll to the bottom for Emergency alerts.  It’s a little alarmist with warnings, but during tornado season, I have it enabled to wake me up overnight.

 

we had an Oregon Scientific NWS WX Radio with alerts, but sadly, it’s dead...

 

-de

Edited March 7, 2020 by exM20K

[aviatoreb]

42 minutes ago, Scott Dennstaedt said:

Here’s the worse time of the year for tornadoes in the Great Lakes region.  
 

I guess I mean right here I have never heard of a tornado - knock on wood - northeast of Lake Ontario but we do get lake effect snow sometimes but usually that is south of us too.

[carusoam]

Tornados and really strong thunderstorms go together...  really strong thunderstorms can generate some giant pieces of hail...

Erik,

Ever get hail in your neighborhood?

NJ, may see hail once each year, small pieces... and a tornado gets reported when somebody has their cell phone/camera out ...

Best regards,

-a-

[aviatoreb]

On 3/5/2020 at 6:38 PM, carusoam said:

Tornados have that much precision.... scalpel like for a few minutes over the area...

Compared to hurricanes... Sledge hammer like for hours over the area...

It is amazing that the complete row of empty trucks doesn’t show any damage compared to the airport...

Another thing that helps the destructive force of the tornado with large buildings... the intense low pressure they can create helps blow doors open... with the pressure differential... over such a short period of time...

PP thoughts only... let’s invite our weather guy to this thread... @Scott Dennstaedt  (tornado discussion)

Best regards,

-a-

I don’t want to say never or we will get hit with big hail next summer - but I can’t remember any real hail here.

now winter Ice a big yes.

when I lived in boulder co years ago we got hail all the time - once golf ball sized hail created a massive insurance disaster from all the pummeled cars.  Once also I was on a bike ride in the plains and it hailed pretty good and ouch it was painfully big slugs hitting me in my lycra outfit before I could find shelter.

but not much here.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

11 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

I don’t want to say never or we will get hit with big hail next summer - but I can’t remember any real hail here.

Here is the worst time of the year in the Great Lakes region for hail > 0.75" in diameter.  

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 3/6/2020 at 2:41 PM, ArtVandelay said:

Scott,
Do you know if this severe weather was expected (predicted)?
I normally in a hangar but when traveling I worry as much about the weather when I’m tied down as I do when I fly. Hail and tornadoes are nightmare scenarios.

To add to what I posted earlier here’s a good analysis of how poorly this event was forecast.   

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/06/tennessee-tornado-tragedy-was-tied-lack-warning-awareness-readiness/

[jetdriven]

On 3/5/2020 at 10:26 PM, Parker_Woodruff said:

If the quote is expired, sure (most quotes are good for 60-90 days, but some as low as 30 days).  But short of that or the agent putting incorrect info into the system, this should not happen.

As of this week, another carrier is non-renewing all light piston aircraft policies.  Why they just won't charge what they need to make it worth it to them is beyond me.

I will ask him. Also, I’ve seen this before, with the stock market takes a dive, insurance companies invest premiums in the stock market, then they charge more for stock market losses like they did back in 2007 and 2001.State Farm and Allstate for property casualty, they actually said because of stock market losses they are raising premiums

[Hank]

1 minute ago, jetdriven said:

I will ask him. Also, I’ve seen this before, with the stock market takes a dive, insurance companies invest premiums in the stock market, then they charge more for stock market losses like they did back in 2007 and 2001.State Farm and Allstate for property casualty, they actually said because of stock market losses they are raising premiums

The market may fall, but unless you sell then, you ain't lost no money . . . .