How much will the market bear for a nice J

[amillet]

The Mooney Flyer valuation tool says our J model value is Total Valuation for the M20 is $198580.

I hope it is somewhat accurate 

[smccray]

3 hours ago, chriman17 said:

Price is always a factor and I never said price wasn't a condition. I'm looking for the best all around value where I get a good airframe that will meet most of my needs with the best panel I can have.

Most of what I have seen on the market has been pretty old which includes aircraft through the 90s. I would like to modernize a panel and would much rather do it to an airframe that will retain most of it's value. I would not want to put 40/50k into a C, but would consider doing it to a J. New aircraft haven't been depreciated and I don't want to be the one absorbing the depreciation. 

Rule of thumb is you loose 50% of the cost of avionics installs.  Your best bet is to find someone who already upgraded the plane and let them eat the depreciation.  The bad news is everyone knows that.  Based on what I've seen, it seems like nicer planes go a lot faster.

Whatever you buy- as your first plane- don't do anything (other than perhaps ADSB) for 6 months.  Fly the plane.  I was anticipating putting an aspen in my J when I bought it.  After I did the instrument rating with the King system I kept it.  It worked just fine for me.

 

3 hours ago, chriman17 said:

For what it's worth, I have a track record of never keeping anything longer than a couple of years. Easily bored and looking for something new. I'm hoping to get this right the first time and break that bad habit. It has cost me a lot of money over the years with sports cars and houses. 

The odds that you're going to hit it out of the park with your first plane are pretty low.  Accept it... you'll be happier.

Rules of Thumb-

Js will sell all day long between $120-140K.  Higher than this number, buyers tend to be looking for faster planes.  That's not to say that Js don't sell at big numbers, but as the price goes up buyers are looking for big bore engines.

Ks are higher- the 252s you would want to own seem to start at 160+.  I believe the market for these planes are more limited given the specific mission.

Ovations- If I were buying a Mooney I would focus here.  Given what you've stated, I would look for a low engine time Ovation with a 310HP upgrade, less than 500 hrs on the engine, and steam gauges.  The panel will keep you at a lower price point, but if you upgrade the plane I think you're in a better spot.

The challenge with any 4 place airplane is that older cirrus airplanes are coming down in price.  If you're in a 1996 Ovation with steam gauges, by the time you upgrade the plane you have the same capital in the plane as a 10 year newer cirrus that already has a glass panel.  Mooneys are fantastic planes, but I believe there will be challenges selling even older highly upgraded Mooneys at a price premium compared to Cirrus aircraft.

4 seat bonanzas have run up big time lately.  There is a lot of hand wringing about the status of the magnesium ruddervators.  It's easy for me to discount the concerns as I'm not affected, and there are owners with grounded aircraft who can't find replacements.  Regardless, I would look at the piper tailed planes (BE33s).  The Bonanas sell at a premium to Mooneys for a given year, but I do see limited sales as prices climb north of $175K.

 

My take on the "mission" conversation- do all the analysis and give it a lot of thought.  Then... figure out what you want to fly and if you can afford it buy it.  If you want a turbo- go for it.  If you want XXX- do it.

I like Jimmy's 1990 J a lot more than the 205.  You'll get more $ out of putting value into the engine, but know that when you sell the plane in a few years it will sell as a run-out engine.  at 1600 hrs in a 1990, I would try to buy it as a run out engine too.

 

[jetdriven]

7 hours ago, chriman17 said:

For what it's worth, I have a track record of never keeping anything longer than a couple of years. Easily bored and looking for something new. I'm hoping to get this right the first time and break that bad habit. It has cost me a lot of money over the years with sports cars and houses. 

The transactional costs of these things are high. You can spend a lot of money after you buy one, or during the process of selling. 

[jetdriven]

I think we have finally arrived at the 200k M20J. 
Avionics costs are crazy, but you don’t lose half the cost of installing. It almost seems like the buyers are buying a panel and it happens to have a plane attached. 
that 200k M20J that sold.  Original P&I. A GPS.  King autopilot. GPSs. Newer but rather stock. 
Now what about an older J model. New P&I. New engine. G3X touch, GTN750, GFC500, gtx345r. 
What does that plane bring. 

[Bob_Belville]

I think we have finally arrived at the 200k M20J. 
Avionics costs are crazy, but you don’t lose half the cost of installing. It almost seems like the buyers are buying a panel and it happens to have a plane attached. 
that 200k M20J that sold.  Original P&I. A GPS.  King autopilot. GPSs. Newer but rather stock. 
Now what about an older J model. New P&I. New engine. G3X touch, GTN750, GFC500, gtx345r. 
What does that plane bring. 

I don't know... has anyone used it as a drag racer?

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

[INA201]

I bought my 1978 J four years ago.  I knew I wanted a J.  It had a 430w and a JPI 700 when I bought it.  The Century IIB autopilot was INOP at the time.   I could have flown with this set up forever buuuuut you know.

Heck I’ll sell you mine for the right price and start over........maybe.

Anyway, I see the economy thing differently.  If the economy drops maintenance costs drop a little as well.  Upgrading the plane is cheaper in a bad economy also.  The J is so darn efficient you can go ROP and haul ass in good times.  In bad times you run LOP at 8GPH and do owner assisted annuals and the like. Hold on to the old car etc.  The value of the J fluctuates some but in reality if you look at say 18k a year to fly 120 hours or so then that is........$90000 over five years.  In percentages the over concentration on 10k to 20k of purchase price in a bad bad economy or good economy is not always an efficient use of time unless this is the fun part for you.

Spend all of your time that you would’ve worried, thought, stressed, budgeted, haggled(while someone swoops a plane or two away), and work extra.  You will probably have the extra money to buy the better plane.  I say if you are gonna buy just have your ducks in a row, have a plan, know what you want(only you know), and go buy a plane.  You’ll likely learn more than you did in school and it’ll be a lot of fun!

Good luck and you are at the right place.  BTW Bo’s drop like a rock when the economy faulters and when you pull the power back.  I’m kidding, Bo’s are really nice planes too.  I just had to throw that in there for fun.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/throw-caution-to-the-wind-winds

[INA201]

What was the $200k J? Link?

[Cruiser]

The only impact the economy has on your investment is relative to what it was when you bought/sold. 

i.e. if the economy is good the price is higher and you will pay that in a purchase.

if the economy was bad when you bought you might have gotten a deal on the purchase price. 

But the economy as an independent factor is irrelevant.

You seem to be looking at your plane as an investment. Big mistake. 

As for avionics. Anything "glass" will add to the value. HOWEVER, "you will only get 50% of what you paid when you sell" ....... straight from Jimmie Garrison's mouth.

 

[chriman17]

1 hour ago, Cruiser said:

You seem to be looking at your plane as an investment. Big mistake.

I wasn't looking at this as an investment nor has the thought ever crossed my mind to try and sell it for a profit, I was looking at this from the perspective where you buy a 1992 Saturn and decide to put new rims and paint on it rather than buying a different platform. If the plane is only ever going to be worth 120k, I don't want to sink an additional 50k in it, I'll just buy a different platform and minimize the risk. 

A better summary of my question is more along the lines of, a) I have never owned an aircraft b) I don't know what my true mission is c) I don't want to lose 50k if I decide to sell within a year or two.

[MIm20c]

7 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

I wasn't looking at this as an investment nor has the thought ever crossed my mind to try and sell it for a profit, I was looking at this from the perspective where you buy a 1992 Saturn and decide to put new rims and paint on it rather than buying a different platform. If the plane is only ever going to be worth 120k,

Well continuing with the newer units being better investments I’m glad I purchased my 2009 Saturn and put some rims (dedicated snow tires) on it.  You know they’re not making these beauties any more. I guess I’ll have to start looking for a paint shop, just noticed my first rust spot...

[Cruiser]

39 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

I wasn't looking at this as an investment nor has the thought ever crossed my mind to try and sell it for a profit, I was looking at this from the perspective where you buy a 1992 Saturn and decide to put new rims and paint on it rather than buying a different platform. If the plane is only ever going to be worth 120k, I don't want to sink an additional 50k in it, I'll just buy a different platform and minimize the risk. 

A better summary of my question is more along the lines of, a) I have never owned an aircraft b) I don't know what my true mission is c) I don't want to lose 50k if I decide to sell within a year or two.

a) Do you rent ?

b) Will it change over time ?

c) Don't put any more money in it than it need for airworthiness and then that is not a guarantee, your first annual could be $10K +

[INA201]

9 hours ago, chriman17 said:

I wasn't looking at this as an investment nor has the thought ever crossed my mind to try and sell it for a profit, I was looking at this from the perspective where you buy a 1992 Saturn and decide to put new rims and paint on it rather than buying a different platform. If the plane is only ever going to be worth 120k, I don't want to sink an additional 50k in it, I'll just buy a different platform and minimize the risk. 

A better summary of my question is more along the lines of, a) I have never owned an aircraft b) I don't know what my true mission is c) I don't want to lose 50k if I decide to sell within a year or two.

Maybe rating your concerns mixed with your priorities in order will help.

1.  Buying a plane where I lose valuation in a time frame of two years.  

Solution; Don’t buy a plane that requires any updates to avionics.  Cosmetics can be done without losing value if done right and do a lot yourself.

2.  Buying a plane that requires extensive maintenance that my prebuy missed.

Solution; Do some serious homework ahead of time before jumping in.  One simple miss like a frayed ignition wire can be $500.00. Another simple miss could be a spark plug that OHMs out.  That can be $200 if there are more than one. It can add up quick. All American seems to have one of the best track records where a lot of homework is already done for you.

3.?

4.?

 

Gear pucks and leaky tanks and SBs and ADs “these are a few of my favorite things.”(you know the song)

 

Oil drops on the hanger floor

bent whiskers on.......

................................

................................

When the compressions drop

when it won’t start

when I’m feeling sad

I simply remember my favorite things

and then I don’t feel so bad

 

Unfortunately the MS crowd can be like parents or really good honest friends.  Often the advice takes some of the fun out but will in turn save you a ton if you heed the wisdom.  Sounds like you are really careful in your decision making which will really help.  Simple route is a place like All American. Safe route is to rent because you just leave the keys on the desk when you are done. Difficult route is to do it all yourself.  This is what many of us have done and quite possibly most of us(not sure).

 

[chriman17]

8 minutes ago, INA201 said:

Maybe rating your concerns mixed with your priorities in order will help.

1.  Buying a plane where I lose valuation in a time frame of two years.  

Solution; Don’t buy a plane that requires any updates to avionics.  Cosmetics can be done without losing value if done right and do a lot yourself.

2.  Buying a plane that requires extensive maintenance that my prebuy missed.

Solution; Do some serious homework ahead of time before jumping in.  One simple miss like a frayed ignition wire can be $500.00. Another simple miss could be a spark plug that OHMs out.  That can be $200 if there are more than one. It can add up quick. All American seems to have one of the best track records where a lot of homework is already done for you.

3.?

4.?

 

Gear pucks and leaky tanks and SBs and ADs “these are a few of my favorite things.”(you know the song)

 

Oil drops on the hanger floor

bent whiskers on.......

................................

................................

When the compressions drop

when it won’t start

when I’m feeling sad

I simply remember my favorite things

and then I don’t feel so bad

 

Unfortunately the MS crowd can be like parents or really good honest friends.  Often the advice takes some of the fun out but will in turn save you a ton if you heed the wisdom.  Sounds like you are really careful in your decision making which will really help.  Simple route is a place like All American. Safe route is to rent because you just leave the keys on the desk when you are done. Difficult route is to do it all yourself.  This is what many of us have done and quite possibly most of us(not sure).

 

I think I'm going to continue looking for something closer to being turnkey. I don't want to be the one to take the initial hit until I know for sure it's the right aircraft that I'll be keeping for the next 10yrs. 

[chriman17]

9 hours ago, MIm20c said:

Well continuing with the newer units being better investments I’m glad I purchased my 2009 Saturn and put some rims (dedicated snow tires) on it.  You know they’re not making these beauties any more. I guess I’ll have to start looking for a paint shop, just noticed my first rust spot...

I think you missed the analogy of syncing more money into something than it's actually worth. Especially if you don't love and plan to keep it for the next 10 years. I don't know if I'll like and keep it for 2 years let alone 10 years. I think the others are correct in saying buy something you don't need to put much upfront money in. After a couple years if you still truly like it, have fun with it.

I just lost nearly 200k a couple months ago on a house we built in my hometown. The house was absolutely amazing, if I could have moved the house to a different state, I would have done it all day long. I've always disliked our area, but it's home and the wife likes it. I decided w/e this is it, I'll build our dream house and hopefully get over my dislike for the area. I never built it with the intention of selling it, so I spared no expense causing it to be over built for the area. 2 years after obtaining our CO I still hated the area and I finally convinced her to want to relocate out of NYS. It cost us approximately 200k. If I had waited 10/15 years, I probably wouldn't have taken that hit, but lessons learned and I wish not to repeat in other ventures.

[MIm20c]

18 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

I think you missed the analogy of syncing more money into something than it's actually worth. Especially if you don't love and plan to keep it for the next 10 years. I don't know if I'll like and keep it for 2 years let alone 10 years. I think the others are correct in saying buy something you don't need to put much upfront money in. After a couple years if you still truly like it, have fun with it.

No, I completely understand where you’re coming from. The home analogy is a far more representative example in regards to time and money invested to buy, maintain, and sell. 

I just like to poke fun at my old set of wheels with everyone else driving their mid life crisis cars to the airport. 

In your position I would look at a nicely maintained 78-82 J that has at least a waas navigator. Fly it for a couple years and see how it fits.

Personally I purchased a short body just before we had two kids. Wished I would have gone with a larger rear seat. However, similar to you, my purchase criteria is very demanding because I don’t want the hassle of upgrading unless I find the perfect one.  I’ve been looking for a year and I’m prepared to keep looking for another year or two. I’m able to see the aircraft in person (within a day) and know what to look for.  My mission has changed but I also learned that a turbo is a requirement for my next plane.  Even if I would have waited for the perfectly equipped plane before I would still be looking at changing right now. 

[carusoam]

On 8/24/2019 at 10:09 PM, chriman17 said:

I wasn't looking at this as an investment nor has the thought ever crossed my mind to try and sell it for a profit, I was looking at this from the perspective where you buy a 1992 Saturn and decide to put new rims and paint on it rather than buying a different platform. If the plane is only ever going to be worth 120k, I don't want to sink an additional 50k in it, I'll just buy a different platform and minimize the risk. 

A better summary of my question is more along the lines of, a) I have never owned an aircraft b) I don't know what my true mission is c) I don't want to lose 50k if I decide to sell within a year or two.

 

This is an airplane challenge in general...

Upgrading a different plane won’t return more of the invested money...

Look at it this way...

if a 10amu radio costs another 10amu to install... you have spent 20amu total...

The day you go to sell it... people don’t see the installation cost as adding value... 

So the plane may go up in value because it has a 10k update... that is pretty easy to see...

It would be more challenging to get the whole 20amu back...

Economy, buyers, sellers, and so many other variables...

If you find a plane that has all the updates... negotiate and PPI are the most economical way to proceed...

PP thoughts only. Not a plane sales guy...

Best regards,

-a-