GA demand shrinking?

[NewMoon]

An interesting data point from SW FL.

18 months ago Paige Field in Ft Myers, FL had 229 people on the hangar wait lists. 

Today that number sits at 25. They built 20 new T-hangars but that doesn't account for this dramatic drop in demand. 

[Fly Boomer]

With the new hangar availability, they probably went through the list, and found everyone who no longer owns an airplane, or is dead.

[exM20K]

At our base in FL, they are actively working to evict non-aviation hangar tenants, too.  It is win/win for aircraft owners and airport businesses to police the hangar use.

-dan

 

[Scott Ashton]

Naples list is much smaller too, and I just got a call from KIMM after two years that my name came up there also.  I also think a lot of people had their name on every list in the area.   

i think it coincides with the end of the Covid boom regionally here.  I’m just not sure it’s just a local phenomenon or something systemic.   I am looking for a boat slip and there are a lot more in Marco than there were last year.

i heard something like between 40% and 60% of the cirrus backlog is to “concept buyers” who havent finished their training.   I’m really waiting to see what happens with those buyers and if they actually take delivery.   Mike Riegel had an interesting analysis of 1Q biz jet deliveries and backlogs and basically said without fractional demand, new deliveries are really starting to take a hit.

we’ll see and maybe bonus depreciation will help stop the slide….

[Paul Thomas]

I believe it's a lot more than 20 hangars; I thought it was 80. I've also been told that for everyone they call, 3-4 are not able to take a hangar because they don't have an airplane (and I know a few in that position - they're in partnerships and put in for a hangar just in case). I'm surprised it's not higher as I think most of us had our names at multiple airports.

FMY has worked hard in the past year at getting rid of airplanes that were not being maintained -- I know of a couple people who had to move their airplanes because they had not done an annual in a while.

The new hangars are creating movement everywhere as airplanes are switching homebase.

[ArtVandelay]

Fort Pierce also built new hangars and there’s still a waiting list. I track J listings on controller, they have been steady for the last couple of years in both numbers and prices.

[NewMoon]

21 hours ago, Scott Ashton said:

Naples list is much smaller too, and I just got a call from KIMM after two years that my name came up there also.  I also think a lot of people had their name on every list in the area.   

i think it coincides with the end of the Covid boom regionally here.  I’m just not sure it’s just a local phenomenon or something systemic.   I am looking for a boat slip and there are a lot more in Marco than there were last year.

i heard something like between 40% and 60% of the cirrus backlog is to “concept buyers” who havent finished their training.   I’m really waiting to see what happens with those buyers and if they actually take delivery.   Mike Riegel had an interesting analysis of 1Q biz jet deliveries and backlogs and basically said without fractional demand, new deliveries are really starting to take a hit.

we’ll see and maybe bonus depreciation will help stop the slide….

Agreed with all of that

[TaildraggerPilot]

There’s the list, and then there’s the “list”. The actual list of aircraft owners alive, with an airplane who are ready to plunk down the deposit and get the key to a hangar is probably a lot smaller than a years, or decades-long waiting list.

In the North Atlanta area, RYY seems to be chasing out small GA and not renewing land leases on the shanty town of old T hangars there. They are wanting to be the next PDK or something. On the other hand, PUJ just built 20 new T hangars and have graded adjacent land for 30 more. There is a “wait list” of over 200 aircraft owners, but how many of them are still alive and have an airplane to hangar? 

[Hank]

I was on the hangar list in the WV boonies for seven years before moving to rural AL. Took me six weeks to get a hangar here. Three and a half years later, I got a phone call that I was #1 on the list for the newly-available hangar back in WV.

I've since changed airports here in Sweet Home, took me about a month of driving around and calling to find a box hangar to share.

Rents varied from $100 to $235 along the way. But my current home base, run by the city, is significantly raising hangar rents, sometimes by a factor of four . . .

[TaildraggerPilot]

$235 a month was what I paid for a T Hangar for my Comanche 25 years ago! Most airports near populations are changing $500 a month or more now. 

[Marc_B]

Out of anything that threatens to diminish GA, for me it seems the maintenance issues.  It's getting harder and harder to get on the schedule for even simple issues.  A simple xpndr antenna issue took a month to just switch to another antenna that was inactive but left in place.  I've had my aircraft at annual for 2 weeks and they haven't even started.  It took 5 months for paint shop to finally finish.  Avionics projects take months, not weeks.  Engine backlog for either overhaul or replacement can be anywhere from 6-12 months.  Something as simple as a V-band clamp could leave you grounded indefinitely.  At some point the cost + downtime just isn't worth it anymore.

Factor in the idea that in the next 5 years alternative unleaded fuel may require updates, replacement, or modification of parts...the "system" isn't geared to the demand for those kinds of situations, let alone "steady state."

Driving 45 minutes to get to the only hangar I could find in my area is paltry in comparison. 

[N201MKTurbo]

20 hours ago, Marc_B said:

Out of anything that threatens to diminish GA, for me it seems the maintenance issues.  It's getting harder and harder to get on the schedule for even simple issues.  A simple xpndr antenna issue took a month to just switch to another antenna that was inactive but left in place.  I've had my aircraft at annual for 2 weeks and they haven't even started.  It took 5 months for paint shop to finally finish.  Avionics projects take months, not weeks.  Engine backlog for either overhaul or replacement can be anywhere from 6-12 months.  Something as simple as a V-band clamp could leave you grounded indefinitely.  At some point the cost + downtime just isn't worth it anymore.

Factor in the idea that in the next 5 years alternative unleaded fuel may require updates, replacement, or modification of parts...the "system" isn't geared to the demand for those kinds of situations, let alone "steady state."

Driving 45 minutes to get to the only hangar I could find in my area is paltry in comparison. 

That's why I got my A&P and IA, I'm not depending on anybody.

With the airlines offering six figure jobs to anybody in A&P schools, who would want to work on these things?

[N201MKTurbo]

I have been in aviation for almost 50 years. It has been going up and down like a yo yo the whole time. Sometime there is no one at the airport, it is like a ghost town and other times it is a beehive of activity. The deadest was in 2008. The busiest in recent history was during COVID. That's because it was an unofficial no mask zone. The cops and firefighters did a lot of inspections so they could hang out without masks.

[Schllc]

About four years ago the hangar wait list at my home field had about 60 people. 
the airport changed the deposit required to get on the list and the list went to below 30. 
I think there are a lot of tire kickers. Not enough to have vacancy, but enough to look like demand changed. 
with airlines getting worse every day, I can’t see biz jet dropping off. 
everyone I know in that biz is still overwhelmed. 

[SKI]

I always say I wish they would break the A&P certificates down like they do pilot licenses.  Your basic A&P license would be for aluminum piston singles and twins. Then have add-on's for turbine and pressurization, Radial engines, Tube and fabric, Composites ect. It would shorten the time required to get your license and more owners might get their A&P license. The vast majority of GA planes have piston engines and aluminum construction. If you want to work on other types go back to school and take a class on whatever you need. 

[philiplane]

Many airports have wait lists full of people who don't own planes, who have moved away, or are otherwise never going to take a hangar. But they clog things up for the rest of us.

A proper hangar wait list should require:  proof of aircraft ownership, or a contract to buy one; current residency within a one hour drive, and a $500 refundable deposit. 

[Paul Thomas]

4 hours ago, philiplane said:

Many airports have wait lists full of people who don't own planes, who have moved away, or are otherwise never going to take a hangar. But they clog things up for the rest of us.

A proper hangar wait list should require:  proof of aircraft ownership, or a contract to buy one; current residency within a one hour drive, and a $500 refundable deposit. 

Fort Myers requires $400 fees (not a deposit) to be added to the list and you cannot take occupancy of a hangar without an airplane. If you sell your airplane, you have 6 month to get a new one or you lose the hangar.

They've already worked really hard in the past 18 month to get rid of airplanes that are not airworthy, even if you're on the ramp.

[Hector]

It does not look like demand is shrinking in North Florida. I keep my plane at Herlong (KHEG) and there is currently 57 people waiting for hangars that cost $500 a month AND they have also run out of tie downs for rent on the ramp. The airport has lots of land to build hangars and expand outside parking but the city seems not to be interested in doing any of that.


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[OR75]

On 6/6/2025 at 7:09 AM, SKI said:

I always say I wish they would break the A&P certificates down like they do pilot licenses.  Your basic A&P license would be for aluminum piston singles and twins. Then have add-on's for turbine and pressurization, Radial engines, Tube and fabric, Composites ect. It would shorten the time required to get your license and more owners might get their A&P license. The vast majority of GA planes have piston engines and aluminum construction. If you want to work on other types go back to school and take a class on whatever you need. 

If you look at the curriculum, I m not sure that would shorten the time that much .

A bigger issue in my opinion is the availability of A&P schools.  How many will make the effort to drive 2 hours+ for 2 years or so to get an A&P ? (online is not an option, maybe some of the curriculum could be)

Another (already mentioned) is that A&Ps had rather go to airlines for better pay and benefits and less liability or to other companies where their trade/skill is very valued (transit companies, auto , elevators ...)

 

 

[Brian2034]

GA aircraft in our area has increased 10 times over, in the last 10 years.

 

[1980Mooney]

Talking about a specific location is meaningless.  Look at the big picture.  Globally, 1,500 SEP were built/sold in all of 2024 and only 317 in Q1 of 2025. Yes there are some homebuilts but they do not meaningfully replace certified aircraft - either in mission or life of use.  But the number of GA that are crashed or just rot away every year exceeds the number coming into the market.

The cost of purchasing and owning/maintaining a GA SEP is rising faster than inflation.  Look at the price increases at Lycoming - or anything that Hartzell/Arcline Capital owns...or any other aviation supplier scooped up by Private Equity - up 50% over the last couple years.  You have to practically be a millionaire to acquire a new Cirrus.  Mooney went out of new aircraft business 6 years ago because they were "only" charging $700,000 and $800,000 for their 2 base models and could not make a go of it.

This will not drive growth.  At best GA piston may flatline.

 

Edited Monday at 02:55 AM by 1980Mooney

[Paul Thomas]

700 experimental were built last year but that's a misleading number when we are talking about hangar space as you need hangar space well before you are ready for first flight. 

[hubcap]

Our new airport manager took over a couple of years ago. He has been aggressively ensuring that all the hangars are occupied by planes that fly. We still have an estimated 18 month wait. 

[SKI]

21 hours ago, OR75 said:

If you look at the curriculum, I m not sure that would shorten the time that much .

A bigger issue in my opinion is the availability of A&P schools.  How many will make the effort to drive 2 hours+ for 2 years or so to get an A&P ? (online is not an option, maybe some of the curriculum could be)

Another (already mentioned) is that A&Ps had rather go to airlines for better pay and benefits and less liability or to other companies where their trade/skill is very valued (transit companies, auto , elevators ...)

 

 

I haven't looked at the curriculum so maybe my idea wouldn't save much time in getting your licenses. Regardless, something needs done to make maintenance more accessible to owners. It's not even the cost entirely. If you literally can't find anyone to work on it and have to wait months to get maintenance done that's going to sour owners and push them out of aviation. I 100% don't blame some young A&P for going to the airlines or some other industry to make much more money and have benefits. The answer in my opinion is for owners to be able to maintain (With the proper training in some way, Shape or Form) their own aircraft. Or even more people will transition to experimental. I love my Mooney and I have an A&P I work with doing owner assisted maintenance but if that wasn't an option I would probably be in a VANS RV. 

[Fritz1]

getting an A&P is doable for an OP. Start putting together all the hours that you spent fixing your airplane and what you did, find an A&P to supervise your work, help identify what hours are missing, define a program how to get these hours and sign off your application, apply with the local FSDO, take written, oral and practical test. Once you get started and log every oil change and spark plug cleaning the project of getting the A&P becomes less daunting with every month. The required numbers are doable, for the Bravo I ball park 200 maintenance hours for 100 flying hours per year between pumping up tires, oil changes, repairs, upgrades and annuals, lots of OPs have flown and worked on their airplanes for decades, all takes to get started is listing all those hours and you might be almost there