Airplane ownership CV19

[Yooper Rocketman]

8 hours ago, bonal said:

I enjoy reading informed opinions as much as the next and there are a number of studies that don't agree with the models we have based all the doom and gloom on and they are being provided by people that are equally informed with outstanding credentials as well. Obviously I'm not a scientist nor am I a doctor of any kind. But I am an American citizen and know when my constitutional rights are under attack I don't like what's going on not one stinking bit. We are making a huge reaction to projected outcomes when we still don't have a denominator as to how many people have had this virus suffered minor symptoms if any and moved on. More studies are being done and more conclusions are confirming this to be the case. I also am VERY suspicious of the number of deaths that were strictly due to the virus and not underlying conditions. I don't post much on MS anymore because of attitudes like yours. I guess all the millions of normal hard working people that are in the process of losing everything should just keep their uneducated mouths shut do as their told be thankful for the appreciation of their elected leaders for being good little soldiers 

nothing personal I just get really miffed when I read an insult especially when it's between the lines.

I have a friend that grew up in Poland in the 70's and 80's before moving to the U.S. and becoming a citizen.  She thinks this is the greatest country in the world!

She is VERY CONCERNED with what she is seeing.  Reminds her of her childhood days more than she wants to remember.

Tom

[Shadrach]

10 hours ago, bonal said:

I enjoy reading informed opinions as much as the next and there are a number of studies that don't agree with the models we have based all the doom and gloom on and they are being provided by people that are equally informed with outstanding credentials as well. Obviously I'm not a scientist nor am I a doctor of any kind. But I am an American citizen and know when my constitutional rights are under attack I don't like what's going on not one stinking bit. We are making a huge reaction to projected outcomes when we still don't have a denominator as to how many people have had this virus suffered minor symptoms if any and moved on. More studies are being done and more conclusions are confirming this to be the case. I also am VERY suspicious of the number of deaths that were strictly due to the virus and not underlying conditions. I don't post much on MS anymore because of attitudes like yours. I guess all the millions of normal hard working people that are in the process of losing everything should just keep their uneducated mouths shut do as their told be thankful for the appreciation of their elected leaders for being good little soldiers 

nothing personal I just get really miffed when I read an insult especially when it's between the lines.

Agreed with much of your post with regard to balancing the rights of the citizenry vs preserving the lives of the citizenry. However, I don’t think Skip’s (@PT20J) intent was to minimize the opinions of anyone. I read it as being grateful that we have a diverse group of individuals posting to this board that its value extends far beyond aviation specific topics. We’ve two immunologists posting and answering questions in this thread alone. Having access to professionals with credentials in those specialties is a great value that few folks enjoy unless they have a family member in that profession. I’ve learned much on this board over the years about topics well beyond aviation. I have many interests and have perused the threads of many different forums, but I frequent this one regularly because it’s a consistent source of quality information on a diverse number of topics beyond it’s intended subject matter.

[Shadrach]

9 hours ago, DXB said:

No insult intended at all here and sorry if I came off as patronizing at any point...to keep the discussion going in a productive direction, and to address the key points you raise (we are less far apart here than you might imagine):

"We are making a huge reaction to projected outcomes when we still don't have a denominator as to how many people have had this virus suffered minor symptoms if any and moved on."

That is undoubtedly true - many early estimates of mortality were badly inflated by low testing.  The problem is that at the moment the estimates at the very low end may have an artificial inflation of the denominator.  The reason is that tests in populations that have a low prevalence of the condition that is being tested, be it active infection or protective antibodies indicating prior infection, will produce a very high proportion of false positives. Take the extreme example: a population where no one has truly has had the virus. Let's say you have a serum antibody test with 95% specificity and specificity - that is a pretty good test and on par with the first FDA-approved serology test.  If you test an infection free population, 5% will test positive, but they will all be false positives - sounds pretty close to the numbers in that county in CA right?  There could be other explanations for sure - a less virulent strain, or more immunity than predicted by initially reported cases, but the innate limitation of the test is the first thing that comes to mind.  

"I also am VERY suspicious of the number of deaths that were strictly due to the virus and not underlying conditions"

There is no question that other conditions contributed to the tallied deaths from COVID19. First there are innate imprecisions in reporting, but these errors tend to go both ways (e.g. the false positive COVD19 test in the person actually dying of influenza vs. the old person found dead at home of unknown causes).  It's hard to make out if there is a large net error in one direction or the other.  The people ending up dying in the ICU after a positive test for the virus overwhelmingly are older and have other medical conditions. Some of them have medical conditions so serious that they have very short life expectancies even if they didn't catch the virus.  But lots of others have life expectancies measured in years to a decade or more.  Consider  the 70 year old male whose hypertension and diabetes are under medical management. Even though he takes care of himself and is active in his retirement, he is quite vulnerable to die of the virus despite having years of life expectancy  - should we not count him in the numerator and do all we can to help him?  We would do everything for him if he showed up with heart disease or a treatable cancer, so I have a hard time dismissing him as a illegit COVID19 statistic who was going to die anyway of something else.

"I guess all the millions of normal hard working people that are in the process of losing everything should just keep their uneducated mouths shut"

They should not keep their mouths shut.  The economic impact cannot be ignored.  I am far less qualified to speak to those issues, and neither are most of the people belittling their urges to restart the economy.

Dev, whoever is responsible for inculcating you with humility is to be commended. It’s a rare trait indeed to be one of the smartest guys in the room as well as the most self aware. I imagine it has served you well in developing your bedside manner.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Shadrach

[bonal]

9 hours ago, PT20J said:

Actually, I wasn’t thinking about you at all when I wrote that and I’m sorry you took it personally.

I mean’t what I said literally. I see a lot of threads where someone asks a straightforward question and lots of interesting opinions are offered and then someone with knowledge and/or experience posts a clear answer, often with supporting documentation. I appreciate that because I learn something from it.

In a situation like we face with COVID-19, I listen to opinions, but I look to those with training and experience in their field for direction and understanding.

Skip
 

No worries Skip, and yes informed fact based comments are the most helpful but it's the opinions that make it fun. Now if only someone was needing to know the proper way to stretch a sheet of watercolor rag paper before painting or the difference between wet and dry brush technique but I know this isn't an art forum. Or if you needed guidance on how to design and engineer and electric distribution system for a subdivision or commercial development then I would be right at home. 

[Andy95W]

On 4/20/2020 at 7:42 PM, bonal said:

Our economy is the life blood of this country and if it dies there won't be any way to do anything for those that get sick. 

 

Bonal, I appreciate your insights, love your artwork, and always enjoy seeing pictures of Snoopy.  But I don't agree with your statement above.

I don't think our economy is the life blood of America.  Americans are.  As long as there are decent, hard-working Americans still drawing breath, we will survive.  And I think there is every possibility we will get stronger because of this.

But I've always been a "glass-half-full" kind of guy.

[PT20J]

It seems to me that that the debate about staying at home vs opening the economy is a false choice. It's self evident that we cannot bear this level of decrease in economic activity indefinitely, and also that we cannot afford to let the virus restart it's exponential growth. There seems to be widespread agreement that testing is one key component necessary for relaxing restrictions. The whole testing issue is very murky and has become highly politicized with state and federal leaders pointing fingers and making claims and counterclaims. It's not clear to me how to separate the signal from the noise. The answers to three simple questions would help, I think: What testing capability (including kits, labs and supplies) do we need to relax social distancing without undue risk of resurgence?; How close are we now in each State to meeting that criteria?;  When will any shortfalls be remedied?

Recently, dates were added to the IHME model for each state for when infections are projected to drop to 1% per 1-million of the population. This provides possible dates when social distancing could be safely relaxed assuming (according to the researchers) that testing, contact tracing, isolation and limiting gathering size are in place. No one is going to like those dates, but at least it is based on analysis of current data. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

It seems that economists are a bit behind. I haven't been able to find any good modelling of short- and long-term economic effects COVID-19 under different mitigation scenarios. Any economists here?

Skip

[DonMuncy]

One question I have not seen an answer to. When we speak of testing, are we talking about (1) Does the testee have the Corona virus infection, or (2) has he been infected previously. Or will one test tell us both answers. It would seem that prior infection would almost certainly provide some immunity. But would a negative test for an active infection give us any idea of whether any immunity exists now?

[carusoam]

Things that can be done that would help...

1) local, direct, testing for the virus itself... lets you know you have the virus, to start proper course of treatment... and know staying at home, for how long... makes sense.

2) Testing for the anti-bodies... lets you know that you successfully had the virus...

3) Sewer treatment facilities can test to see concentrations of virus in the waste stream... lets you know if the society has infections...

4) Blood testing of donated blood... can also give insight to who has what, where, in society...

5) drive through swab sample taking is great for being able to get tested without exposing or getting exposed to other Potentially sick people...

6) having real data is so much better than getting by in the dark... flying in IMC with rudimentary instruments is better than no instruments at all...

7) Lots of opportunity for big brother to overstep his boundaries... he has been contained more than the virus, in the past... and needs to stay that way in the future, as well...

PP thoughts only, not any virus experience...

Best regards,

-a-

[bonal]

[Shadrach]

8 hours ago, DonMuncy said:

One question I have not seen an answer to. When we speak of testing, are we talking about (1) Does the testee have the Corona virus infection, or (2) has he been infected previously. Or will one test tell us both answers. It would seem that prior infection would almost certainly provide some immunity. But would a negative test for an active infection give us any idea of whether any immunity exists now?

All the blood serum tests that I’ve seen so far test for two types of antibodies: immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM).

IgG takes some time to form and is our natural defense against future infections. Testing positive for IgG suggest the virus has cleared and your body has some degree of defense against future infection.

IgM is part of the body’s defense against new infections. Testing positive for IgM suggests your body is currently fighting the virus. 

Full disclosure I own a small company that sells home diagnostic testing devices. However, I am a business person not a biotech person. I’m sure there are others on this thread that can speak in more detail about antibody testing.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Shadrach

[Shadrach]

This about sums up how I feel right now. I also feel like the folks I know are in their various circles asking me to come join them. I’m going to continue to social distance in the center of the diagram.

[PT20J]

1 hour ago, Shadrach said:

This about sums up how I feel right now. I also feel like the folks I know are in their various circles asking me to come join them. I’m going to continue to social distance in the center of the diagram.

Hey, Ross, I'm right there six feet from you!

[Sixstring2k]

I see a lot of number and statistics to emphasis what going on but the number don’t hit as hard as the reality, we had a death in the family this pass Friday (not covid 19 related we think) the lady passed away at night and after the ambulance came one of the tech advices us to not wait and start looking now for a funeral home. We have being looking thru  every borough in NY and have yet to find a funeral home who is willing to take the lady for a least a cremation. They are all full and at least a month maybe more wait list after the body is released by the coroner just for a cremation, this is not made up its real and be thankful if it has not hit as hard in your part of the country.
My mom and I think we had it, not able to get tested at the time. She is in the Bronx NY and I am in NJ, She developed breathing problems after a few days and thank God she fought what ever it was off and I was laid out (I am 41 years old) and lost almost 15lbs after one week fighting the fever, body aches and lack of appetite. my coworkers wife spend 3 weeks with 103 fever before it finally broke And I don’t want to think what she went thru. My friends mother was not so lucky, she had it and lasted 3 weeks and passed away, my sister works for JetBlue and her coworker a flight attendant died after 3 weeks he was 28 years old. At Newark Airport we have lost 2 coworkers that we know off so far and are confirmed cases of covid 19. Not everyone is reporting in under a crazy schedule where won’t have too many people together so not everyone is accounted for as of yet.

This things spreads fast so take it seriously and listen not to the politicians but the medical community. For me I can’t wait for 2020 to be done. 

[bradp]

Ross is correct.  
 

One of the nuances is trying to figure out the balance between a rapidly deployed test, a cheap test, and the “best” test. If I want to try to assess whether you have a protective immune response the “gold standard” might be something called an enzyme linked Immunoadsorbant Assay (ELISA). It uses antibodies that are essentially mass produced and linked to a little enzyme color generator to give a semi-quantitative indication of how much stuff those antibodies  are attached to.  The stuff can be virus particles, other antibodies, chemicals etc.  The amount of color of the detection (sometimes radioactivity is used instead of a coloring agent), is normalized to a known standard scale.  This way I can either determine a value for how much stuff (eg your blood serum), or a serial dilution of that stuff can be performed to determine the lowest detection limit for the assay (a titration -> determine a titer).  In this setup you need to have a target that represents / can substitute for the clinically important thing you’re trying to measure, namely a protective antibody immune response.  If a kid comes in with recurrent pneumonia I might send vaccine titers for things like Strep pneumoniae and tetanus.  If he’s below a certain threshold for his antibody “levels”, he won’t have a protective immune response.  They might still be detectable, but non protective at those low concentrations. 
 

Back to COVID.  The primary test methodology that seems to be coming online is lateral flow assay.  This is what you’d find in a doctors office for a rapid strep test, rapid flu, or pregnancy test.  The issue is it’s not a quantitative assay.  If you have enough “stuff” above a threshold to react with the test reagent, you get a line on a strip.  It’s more difficult if not impossible to determine what that threshold for protective immune response might correlate with using this test format.  It might be more useful for determining whether you have IgM but no IgG (indicative of active or very recent infection), but probably won’t tell you if you will be immune if you get re-exposed to the virus. 

[Shadrach]

6 minutes ago, bradp said:

Back to COVID.  The primary test methodology that seems to be coming online is lateral flow assay.  This is what you’d find in a doctors office for a rapid strep test, rapid flu, or pregnancy test.  The issue is it’s not a quantitative assay.  If you have enough “stuff” above a threshold to react with the test reagent, you get a line on a strip.  It’s more difficult if not impossible to determine what that threshold for protective immune response might correlate with using this test format.  

In my line of work we have a similar challenge with ovulation tests (which I’m sure you’re familiar with). The industry gets around this (sort of) by using the tint of the control line as a benchmark. If the test line is lighter than the control line then luteinizing hormone levels are not sufficient on the test line nor in the body to signal ovulation. It complicates life for the end-user who just once a binary result and often finds themselves in the bathroom staring at two relatively dark pink lines trying to figure out if one is darker than the other. 

Is the problem with the new tests that we don’t know what quantity of antibody is protective or is it that a test has not been manufactured to a sufficient sensitivity level that it a qualitative marker is only present at protective quantities or greater. Similar to say the low sensitivity hCG test they give after a terminated pregnancy.

[Shadrach]

39 minutes ago, Sixstring2k said:

I see a lot of number and statistics to emphasis what going on but the number don’t hit as hard as the reality, we had a death in the family this pass Friday (not covid 19 related we think) the lady passed away at night and after the ambulance came one of the tech advices us to not wait and start looking now for a funeral home. We have being looking thru  every borough in NY and have yet to find a funeral home who is willing to take the lady for a least a cremation. They are all full and at least a month maybe more wait list after the body is released by the coroner just for a cremation, this is not made up its real and be thankful if it has not hit as hard in your part of the country.
My mom and I think we had it, not able to get tested at the time. She is in the Bronx NY and I am in NJ, She developed breathing problems after a few days and thank God she fought what ever it was off and I was laid out (I am 41 years old) and lost almost 15lbs after one week fighting the fever, body aches and lack of appetite. my coworkers wife spend 3 weeks with 103 fever before it finally broke And I don’t want to think what she went thru. My friends mother was not so lucky, she had it and lasted 3 weeks and passed away, my sister works for JetBlue and her coworker a flight attendant died after 3 weeks he was 28 years old. At Newark Airport we have lost 2 coworkers that we know off so far and are confirmed cases of covid 19. Not everyone is reporting in under a crazy schedule where won’t have too many people together so not everyone is accounted for as of yet.

This things spreads fast so take it seriously and listen not to the politicians but the medical community. For me I can’t wait for 2020 to be done. 

I’m sorry for your loss. Would you mind sharing in what general location this occurred? I’m sorry to say that Covid still going to be a thing long after 2020 is gone... To what degree is anyone’s guess.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Shadrach

[DXB]

7 hours ago, Shadrach said:

Dev, whoever is responsible for inculcating you with humility is to be commended. It’s a rare trait indeed to be one of the smartest guys in the room as well as the most self aware. I imagine it has served you well in developing your bedside manner.

Ross - thank you - that is an overly kind assessment. My communication style is a work in progress and a byproduct of a couple of decades spent being an arrogant ass, wondering why I wasn't all that great at solving problems.    I suspect some others here have progressed much faster in that regard.  

[Shadrach]

10 minutes ago, DXB said:

Ross - thank you - that is an overly kind assessment. My communication style is a work in progress and a byproduct of a couple of decades spent being an arrogant ass, wondering why I wasn't all that great at solving problems.    I suspect some others here have progressed much faster in that regard.  

Tell me about it… The struggle is real!

[M016576]

On 4/18/2020 at 7:36 AM, chrisk said:

The 13th amendment states "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction."   One really should understand the civil war was the first time the draft was used in the US and there were significant riots in places like NYC.  And the 13th amendment was passed shortly after the civil war. Kind of makes you wonder why "involuntary servitude" was added in addition to slavery.  

Because it’s a different circumstance.  During involuntary servitude, one is compensated for their work, despite the “involuntary” part.  The same cannot be said for slavery.

thinking of being impressed into service aboard British warships in the 17-1800’s.... or if you’ve ever “Sea Wolf” by Jack London... great examples there.

[Andy95W]

56 minutes ago, DXB said:

Ross - thank you - that is an overly kind assessment. My communication style is a work in progress and a byproduct of a couple of decades spent being an arrogant ass, wondering why I wasn't all that great at solving problems.    I suspect some others here have progressed much faster in that regard.  

 

43 minutes ago, Shadrach said:

Tell me about it… The struggle is real!

Me three.

[M016576]

Rather than dwell on the politics of COVID, I thought I’d just add a little “what we’re up to” post, since I’ve been away from Mooney space for a while.  As a flight instructor in the USAF, We've been deemed an “essential business:” we’re still training students so I’ve had the good fortune to continue to fly.  The briefings have been a bit different, with “social distancing” and masks as the norm.  For those that have seen a fighter squadron before, you’d be pretty disappointed to see that our coffee makers are all shut down, the popcorn machines are shuttered and our squadron “heritage rooms” (bars) are basically a ghost town.  Part of my ground job involves some of the supporting agencies on the field (RAPCON, tower, ground, airfield ops/management)- these hard working individuals have been working crazy hours to keep the skies safe over Phoenix, and I’m proud to be associated with them.

As a military member, I am currently restricted to a 100nm radius from my home station for personal travel.  I have been taking the Mooney out to see if I can test the limits of those boundaries.  Over the weekend, I took my son down to E63 (Gila Bend), and filled up on AVGAS.... would you believe it, but it was only $3.30 a gallon!!  I can’t remember the last time I paid that little!  Hard to believe, six weeks ago I was paying that for 87 unleaded!  So I guess that’s one good thing that’s come of this mess?  Hope you all are safe and healthy.

[PT20J]

6 hours ago, bonal said:

My wife taught me that if you keep a wine glass in each hand, you can’t accidentally touch your face. 

[bonal]

59 minutes ago, M016576 said:

Rather than dwell on the politics of COVID, I thought I’d just add a little “what we’re up to” post, since I’ve been away from Mooney space for a while.  As a flight instructor in the USAF, We've been deemed an “essential business:” we’re still training students so I’ve had the good fortune to continue to fly.  The briefings have been a bit different, with “social distancing” and masks as the norm.  For those that have seen a fighter squadron before, you’d be pretty disappointed to see that our coffee makers are all shut down, the popcorn machines are shuttered and our squadron “heritage rooms” (bars) are basically a ghost town.  Part of my ground job involves some of the supporting agencies on the field (RAPCON, tower, ground, airfield ops/management)- these hard working individuals have been working crazy hours to keep the skies safe over Phoenix, and I’m proud to be associated with them.

As a military member, I am currently restricted to a 100nm radius from my home station for personal travel.  I have been taking the Mooney out to see if I can test the limits of those boundaries.  Over the weekend, I took my son down to E63 (Gila Bend), and filled up on AVGAS.... would you believe it, but it was only $3.30 a gallon!!  I can’t remember the last time I paid that little!  Hard to believe, six weeks ago I was paying that for 87 unleaded!  So I guess that’s one good thing that’s come of this mess?  Hope you all are safe and healthy.

Thank you for the service to our country and actually this thread has been very politics free and for that I compliment the gallery 

[Sixstring2k]

4 hours ago, Shadrach said:

I’m sorry for your loss. Would you mind sharing in what general location this occurred? I’m sorry to say that Covid still going to be a thing long after 2020 is gone... To what degree is anyone’s guess.

I live in Bogota NJ and my mom in the Bronx NY, it’s being 4 weeks without fever. The lady that passed away that’s related to my family resided in the Bronx as well, We all suspect heart attack because she had a previous stroke years ago. As for my friends mother she lived in northern Manhattan right at the norther most tip near the Columbia university sports complex and she passed April 2nd. 
 

I so hope you are wrong about dealing with this pass 2020

Edited April 23, 2020 by Sixstring2k

[Shadrach]

21 minutes ago, Sixstring2k said:

I live in Bogota NJ and my mom in the Bronx NY, it’s being 4 weeks without fever. The lady that passed away that’s related to my family resided in the Bronx as well, We all suspect heart attack because she had a previous stroke years ago. As for my friends mother she lived in northern Manhattan right at the norther most tip near the Columbia university sports complex and she passed April 2nd. 
 

I so hope you are wrong about dealing with this pass 2020

Again I am very sorry for your loss. You and your family members are at the epicenter of this pandemic and I appreciate you sharing your frontline perspective.  I was not intentionally trying to be glum about the new year.  I think the evidence suggests that covid is here to stay. That does not mean that we won’t be in a much better place as a society in the coming new year. I pray that we will.
Stay safe.