Love of flying in the Time of Coronavirus

[N201MKTurbo]

I had CoVid-229E earlier this year. If I get 19 then I get it. I wish it would do its thing soon so we can get over it and on with life.

It is hard to imagine that the disease is worse than the panic we are in now!

[aviatoreb]

42 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I had CoVid-229E earlier this year. If I get 19 then I get it. I wish it would do its thing soon so we can get over it and on with life.

It is hard to imagine that the disease is worse than the panic we are in now!

20 to 100 million people died in 1918.  That seems worse to me than the panic we are in now. The population is much greater now (so the fraction number makes for a larger absolute number) and the amount of travel is much great, although the healthcare available (if not overwhelmed) is better, and of course it is a different virus so it will not be identical.

Most of all, it is not about you, and if you get sick and then get over it.  The lady 2 doors down is elderly and in frail health. My wife's father is 82.  across the street and 3 doors up is a nice older couple.  My mom is quite older.  People I know and their health is very important to me, even if (knock on wood), I get through with just some sniffles (I hope).  Summary - this is not just about me, me, me.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by aviatoreb

[N201MKTurbo]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

20 to 100 million people died in 1918.  That seems worse to me than the panic we are in now. The population is much greater now (so the fraction number makes for a larger absolute number) and the amount of travel is much great, although the healthcare available (if not overwhelmed) is better, and of course it is a different virus so it will not be identical.

Most of all, it is not about you, and if you get sick and then get over it.  The lady 2 doors down is elderly and in frail health. My wife's father is 82.  across the street and 3 doors up is a nice older couple.  My mom is quite older.  People I know and their health is very important to me, even if (knock on wood), I get through with just some sniffles (I hope).  Summary - this is not just about me, me, me.

 

Those vulnerable people should take precautions. You can't control people other than your selves. Unless we turn the world into a total police state. Might as will be dead...

[aviatoreb]

24 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Those vulnerable people should take precautions. You can't control people other than your selves. Unless we turn the world into a total police state. Might as will be dead...

That is where you are DEADLY WRONG.  I emphasize the word deadly and literally since if the larger fraction of people have an attitude like you and act out behave that way, then the number of dead will be dramatically higher, by the millions and millions.  The health of those individuals relies on people like YOU and ME to be responsible to as much as possible to slow down the spread of this disease.  I pray that more people will react in a publicly and personally concerned responsible manner. My inner faith in people generally tells me this will be the case.

It got so out of hand in Northern Italy in a matter of two weeks that people 65 and up were literally triaged and left to die turned away from care at hospitals.

What EVERYONE does has an effect on how deadly this is.  There will always be folks like you who say, that's your problem, I don't care what happens to you, look out for number one, don't tread on me. But hopefully there are more of us that will actually do something and be pro-active to mitigate the problem.  This is not just a discussion about government or police.  Take it as a discussion of community responsibility and all pulling together to care for our neighbors and help keep our neighbors, our mothers, our uncles, AND ourselves safer.  It doesn't take a government or policeman to tell me to understand about that.   If one of my neighbors (or I!) become deathly ill, I pray that the local hospital is not so overhwelmed that they simply say we cannot take you - good luck and stay at home.

Edited March 13, 2020 by aviatoreb

[Shadrach]

So I read an article this morning about a 37yr old woman that had the virus (unbeknownst to her) and recovered at home with OTC meds treating the symptoms.  After reading her description of the experience I started thinking of my own experience in late January.  A week of fever and upper respiratory illness.  No runny nose but very wheezy. Mild pneumonia for the first time in my life (breathing sounded like fizzing pop rocks at night...loud enough to for my wife to hear). Fever peaked at 103.7.  Fever would break with acetaminophen but returned severl times before gradually abating over about a week. Tested negative for Influenza B.  Wife developed similar symptoms but lagged behind me by about 6 days.  In the whole scheme of things we were certainly sick, but nothing I would think to mention if it were not for the current state of affairs around the world. 

I called my physicians office this morning. who directed me to the health department.  I thought I'd call the CDC instead. They're clearly overwhelmed with calls as the system disconnected me after 54 mins on hold.  Health dept gave me a number to call but no answer.

Does anyone know if the CDC has a data division that might be interested in cases that have resolved?  I tend to think this thing is being overstated a bit.  However, without good data we'll never know.  There is no way to achieve anything approaching accurate mortality rates if folks like this woman from Washington self treat and recover without ever being added to the data set.  There are likely 1000s in the states who've contracted the virus and already recovered without ever knowing they had it.  She only found out after voluntarily participating in a flu study.   Focusing some attention on those who've gotten sick and recovered would also go a log way towards demystifying what has been hyped with videos of people on ventilators and government workers fogging city streets in full HAZMAT gear.

[Shadrach]

20 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

That is where you are DEADLY WRONG.  I emphasize the word deadly and literally since if the larger fraction of people have an attitude like you and act out behave that way, then the number of dead will be dramatically higher, by the millions and millions.  The health of those individuals relies on people like YOU and ME to be responsible to as much as possible to slow down the spread of this disease.  I pray that more people will react in a publicly and personally concerned responsible manner. My inner faith in people generally tells me this will be the case.

It got so out of hand in Northern Italy in a matter of two weeks that people 65 and up were literally triaged and left to die turned away from care at hospitals.

What EVERYONE does has an effect on how deadly this is.  There will always be folks like you who say, that's your problem, I don't care what happens to you, look out for number one, don't tread on me. But hopefully there are more of us that will actually do something and be pro-active to mitigate the problem.  This is not just a discussion about government or police.  Take it as a discussion of community responsibility and all pulling together to care for our neighbors and help keep our neighbors, our mothers, our uncles, AND ourselves safer.  It doesn't take a government or policeman to tell me to understand about that.   If one of my neighbors (or I!) become deathly ill, I pray that the local hospital is not so overhwelmed that they simply say we cannot take you - good luck and stay at home.

Take a deep breath sir (but find a nice sparsely populated area in which to do it).    Keep in mind that all of the people that catch it and ride out with little trouble are not being reported.  We are only seeing the worst.  The media has become comical in this area...anything for a click.  The Italian healthcare system is good, but I am unsure of how they compare in terms of hospitals to population density.    Also, Italian customs for greeting  and socializing are almost custom designed to spread this kind of illness. We do not kiss in this country in the same casual manner as Italians.  I have a vivid childhood memory of meeting my Italian cousin for the first time because he kissed every person in the room on both cheeks.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Shadrach

[aviatoreb]

Just now, Shadrach said:

Take a deep breath sir (but find a nice sparsely populated area in which to do it).    Keep in mind that all of the people that catch it and ride out with little trouble are not being reported.  We are only seeing the worst.  The media has become comical in this area...anything for a click.  The Italian healthcare system is good, but I am unsure of how they compare in terms of hospitals to population density.    Also, Italian customs for greeting  and socializing are almost custom designed to spread this kind of illness. We do not kiss in this country in the same casual manner as Italians.  I have a vivid childhood memory of meeting my Italian cousin for the first time because he kissed every person in the room on both cheeks.

Yes, yes and the world is flat because what I see is flat.

[steingar]

If the extraordinary efforts to slow this thing down actually succeed they'll be worth it.  I doubt they will.  No one is going to stay home all the time unless forced, especially as the mercury climbs.  The only thing I can see that would stop it is warm weather and sunshine, and I'm not so certain those work on COVID-19.  I liken this to Godzilla.  Soldiers shoot their guns at Godzilla.  They fire missiles at him, drop bombs on him and do everything else they can think to do.  And he just does what he wants to do where he wants to do it to whom he wants to do it to because he's Godzilla.

I admit it makes sense to try and stretch out the infection cycle, keep the hospitals form getting overwhelmed.  Might even work, but I have doubts.

[aviatoreb]

Just now, steingar said:

If the extraordinary efforts to slow this thing down actually succeed they'll be worth it.  I doubt they will.  No one is going to stay home all the time unless forced, especially as the mercury climbs.  The only thing I can see that would stop it is warm weather and sunshine, and I'm not so certain those work on COVID-19.  I liken this to Godzilla.  Soldiers shoot their guns at Godzilla.  They fire missiles at him, drop bombs on him and do everything else they can think to do.  And he just does what he wants to do where he wants to do it to whom he wants to do it to because he's Godzilla.

I admit it makes sense to try and stretch out the infection cycle, keep the hospitals form getting overwhelmed.  Might even work, but I have doubts.

This has nothing to do with Godzilla.

I hope that warm weather does slow this all down naturally.  Meanwhile slowing it down even during the next 6 weeks could have a massive impact on mortality rate.

Historically, in 1918 that pandemic came in 3 major waves.  Wave one was large and came in March.  Then it naturally abated in the warm months and it was thought that the threat had past.  But then wave 2 came on in late August and Sept and through October and it was the largest wave.  Most all public events were cancelled across the country but in Philadelphia they went ahead with their joyous end of WWI parade in October.  That city was hit by far the worst across the country starting just a few days after that big public event. At the height a thousand people a day were dying in Philadelphia and there was nothing else even close in the country.  Wave 3 was mostly in Jan 1919 and it was still big but somewhat smaller as by then "herd immunity" was prevailing since a large fraction of people had caught and recovered.

[Skates97]

I am not trying to downplay the virus, although I think the level of panic is not in line with the threat. All the hype does not add up everywhere. Can someone explain South Korea to me? Lows in the 30°'s and highs in the 40-50°'s seems like good weather for a virus, compared to the hot and humid places.

Why is South Korea, a country with some very densely populated cities, having success, without locking down cities or regions? From a couple articles/interviews (not social media posts), South Korea has done more extensive testing than other regions. Interestingly in South Korea private institutions account for 90% of the medical system, not the government. South Korea is testing 15,000 people a day. They have run 3,600 tests per 1 million population, compared to the US at 5 per 1 million. The reported mortality rate in Italy is 6%, China 4%, but South Korea is less than 1%. That again points to the high mortality rates that are being reported most likely are reported much higher than actual because the number of infected is not reported accurately.

From the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy yesterday, the 12th:

"South Korea today reported 114 new cases, with 6 more deaths, raising its overall respective totals to 7,869 and 66, according to the Korea Center for Disease Control. It said 80% of cases are linked to clusters, including 99 illnesses recently linked to an insurance company call center in Seoul."

Again, South Korea did not lock down cities or their country and shut down their economy, yet it is not the apocalypse there wiping out hundreds of thousands (or millions as some are predicting).

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/ecdc-covid-19-not-containable-set-overwhelm-hospitals

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/815097813/experts-credit-south-koreas-extensive-testing-for-curbing-coronavirus-spread

[N201MKTurbo]

Will everybody on this forum who knows somebody with Covid-19 raise there hands?

Lets see,    0

When it actually gets here and everybody starts getting a bad cold, I might do something....

[Skates97]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

This has nothing to do with Godzilla.

I hope that warm weather does slow this all down naturally.  Meanwhile slowing it down even during the next 6 weeks could have a massive impact on mortality rate.

Historically, in 1918 that pandemic came in 3 major waves.  Wave one was large and came in March.  Then it naturally abated in the warm months and it was thought that the threat had past.  But then wave 2 came on in late August and Sept and through October and it was the largest wave.  Most all public events were cancelled across the country but in Philadelphia they went ahead with their joyous end of WWI parade in October.  That city was hit by far the worst across the country starting just a few days after that big public event. At the height a thousand people a day were dying in Philadelphia and there was nothing else even close in the country.  Wave 3 was mostly in Jan 1919 and it was still big but somewhat smaller as by then "herd immunity" was prevailing since a large fraction of people had caught and recovered.

You keep quoting the 1918 pandemic. We have a few more things going for us today, one of the biggest of which is antibiotics. From an article on the National Institutes of Health website:

"Bacterial Pneumonia Caused Most Deaths in 1918 Influenza Pandemic. The majority of deaths during the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 were not caused by the influenza virus acting alone, report researchers from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health."

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/bacterial-pneumonia-caused-most-deaths-1918-influenza-pandemic

Penicillin was discovered in 1928, had antibiotics been around in 1918 the influenza pandemic would not have been the same.

 

[aviatoreb]

6 minutes ago, Skates97 said:

You keep quoting the 1918 pandemic. We have a few more things going for us today, one of the biggest of which is antibiotics. From an article on the National Institutes of Health website:

"Bacterial Pneumonia Caused Most Deaths in 1918 Influenza Pandemic. The majority of deaths during the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 were not caused by the influenza virus acting alone, report researchers from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health."

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/bacterial-pneumonia-caused-most-deaths-1918-influenza-pandemic

Penicillin was discovered in 1928, had antibiotics been around in 1918 the influenza pandemic would not have been the same.

 

I have said repeatedly that it is not the same as 1918.  But it is the most recent massive event for which there are lessons to learn.

This one is viral.  It is not bacterial.  Antibiotics are not for viral infections.

The biggest difference is it is a different disease so it is not fully reasonable to say what happened then will happen the same way, as the infection rate, the incubation, mortality rate and all are different.  Only thing in common is it is a large and more deadly than usual.  A little bit in common is a reflection on how people react has an effect on outcomes, such as the story of Philadelphia I cited.  

Penicillin and other antibiotics are for bacterial infections.  Not viral.

We do have significantly better direct treatment methods than then, unless the system gets overwhelmed.

The major spreading difference is the prevelance of airline travel that accelerates the transmission around the world.

Interestingly, there was an exact location in the trenches of the battle field where it was claimed that the decease was transmitted to the germans and then soon all of Germany, from hand to hand combat in once specific underground tunnel between the trenches.  

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by aviatoreb

[gsxrpilot]

8 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Will everybody on this forum who knows somebody with Covid-19 raise there hands?

Lets see,    0

When it actually gets here and everybody starts getting a bad cold, I might do something....

I know 2. Both in the hospital and one in ICU. The one in ICU is 45 years old.

[N201MKTurbo]

3 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

I know 2. Both in the hospital and one in ICU. The one in ICU is 45 years old.

Are they here in the USA?

I hope they get well soon.

[gsxrpilot]

Just now, N201MKTurbo said:

Are they here in the USA?

I hope they get well soon.

Yes. Fortunately they are both able to access and getting the best medical care available.

[neilpilot]

15 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Will everybody on this forum who knows somebody with Covid-19 raise there hands?

Lets see,    0

When it actually gets here and everybody starts getting a bad cold, I might do something....

I know 1 who is currently undergoing treatment.  He's relatively young and otherwise healthy, but I'm not aware of his condition.  My stepson & his wife were exposed, so they are currently in quarantine along with our 2 grandchildren.

[Skates97]

1 minute ago, aviatoreb said:

I have said repeatedly that it is not the same as 1918.  But it is the most recent massive event for which there are lessons to learn.

This one is viral.  It is not bacterial.  Antibiotics are not for viral infections.

The biggest difference is it is a different disease so it is not fully reasonable to say what happened then will happen the same way, as the infection rate, the incubation, mortality rate and all are different.  Only thing in common is it is a large and more deadly than usual.  A little bit in common is a reflection on how people react has an effect on outcomes, such as the story of Philadelphia I cited.  

Penicillin and other antibiotics are for bacterial infections.  Not viral.

We do have significantly better direct treatment methods than then, unless the system gets overwhelmed.

The major spreading difference is the prevelance of airline travel that accelerates the transmission around the world.

Interestingly, there was an exact location in the trenches of the battle field where it was claimed that the decease was transmitted to the germans and then soon all of Germany, from hand to hand combat in once specific underground tunnel between the trenches.  

 

I am well aware of the difference between viral and bacterial infections. However, the 1918 viral infection did not kill everyone, it was the resulting bacterial infection to which they did not have the means to combat it. And again, we do not actually know how deadly Covid-19 is because we do not have an accurate number of infected. In South Korea where they have been doing extensive testing the mortality rate is less than 1%.

[Browncbr1]

I’ve never seen such limp wristed, cowering, hysteria in my life.   Life goes on and we’ve been through far worse.   When all else fails, fresh tactics.   It’s election year. 

[gsengle]

I’ve never seen such limp wristed, cowering, hysteria in my life.   Life goes on and we’ve been through far worse.   When all else fails, fresh tactics.   It’s election year. 

Grow up. If you believe that go get a tinfoil hat and I hope you use better judgement when you’re in my airspace.


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[flyboy0681]

It's clear to me by reading these posts who the CNN viewers are and the Fox. Based on what I have read and seen about the population of Mooney owners, most are over 60 and, and in my opinion, shouldn't be as nonchalant as they are.  As for me, my folks are in their 90's and my daughter is on immunosuppressant drugs, so I have my own worries. But, listening to a lot of people here, I have little to worry about.

[Davidv]

We have our Florida Mooney lunch tomorrow.  I haven't heard of a cancellation so as of now the show goes on!

I feel like I should clarify that I respect the gravity of the situation and will take whatever precautions possible to protect myself and others.  The polarization here seems to rival a political view thread and it shouldn't.  Everyone is in a different situation.  I'm sure some people on this forum live in remote air parks where they don't have to go near other people if they desire.  Others are in cities where it's near impossible to lock yourself in a bubble.  Unless you cook all your meals at home and never interact with another human you're at some sort of risk.    

[gsxrpilot]

At the moment, the San Marcos, TX Mooney Caravan Formation clinic is still on for the weekend of March 27-29. I plan on attending if it happens. 

 

 

[Browncbr1]

 

43 minutes ago, gsengle said:

Grow up. If you believe that go get a tinfoil hat and I hope you use better judgement when you’re in my airspace.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The problem with people like you is that you’re unable to accept that other people might have a different view than your own.   In doing so, you resort to disrespect and dismissal in attempt to silence others.    This thread is full of long winded opinion, but you can’t take a couple sentences contrary to your opinion?  Come on man. 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Browncbr1

[aviatoreb]

42 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

It's clear to me by reading these posts who the CNN viewers are and the Fox. Based on what I have read and seen about the population of Mooney owners, most are over 60 and, and in my opinion, shouldn't be as nonchalant as they are.  As for me, my folks are in their 90's and my daughter is on immunosuppressant drugs, so I have my own worries. But, listening to a lot of people here, I have little to worry about.

It’s amazing to me how many people watch tv and think the whole world is a dichotomy of left vs right.  Sometimes things happen that aren’t politics.

i don’t watch tv at all and I don’t watch or read either of those media choices.

i have spoken Skype (for b usiness reasons) to a colleague in London yesterday.  I have watched macron’s 27 minute address to France on France 1 in French yesterday.  I have read Angela merciless remarks - translated.  Something is happening in the world and it’s not about anyone’s desire to spin it as a fox or cnn story or a republican or democratic spin.

i am not afraid I am a pragmatist.  One a storm is afoot I react and I don’t call people limp twisted pansies for choosing to get the weather report read the radar and choose to either fly around a t-storm rather than through or to fly another day.

I read that 2007 article from the proceedings  of the national academies of science in about 2008. I didn’t just find out about it because cnn just told me about 1918 yesterday.  You seem to assert that no one has opinions or knowledge - that all opinions are fake knowledge inserted by talking heads from cnn or fox.  This is an unfortunate view of the world and an unfortunate view of humanity and in a moment like this a dangerous distracting impediment keeping many people from reacting.