Weather Scenarios Go/No-Go Game

[MB65E]

Thanks again Mike, it was fun seeing everyone opinions and reasons. I'm glad more people didn't elect to fly for #1. I was between layers earlier this year near the Tehachapi Mountains. Thought I could decend VFR below the second layer. Told approach I was letting down out of 9.5. Later sawThe ridgline was obscured around 7k and changed plans wanted to climb back to where I was. lets just say the rate I needed and the rate I had were not the same.  Ended up needing 10.5 to clear the ridgline clouds.  Right then I really considered gross weight takeoffs at those altitudes. 

65 M20E-150hrs SMOH, running awesome, 1/2 tanks, and only me. 

Long winded, but it got my attention. 

-Matt

[201er]

I'd especially like to hear from the 3 people that elected to go for #1. Totally not judging but want to know the reasoning between why you would be comfortable going and perhaps past experience that has indicated to you that you can handle such a situation?

[Oscar Avalle]

Cool nice

 

[chrisk]

15 hours ago, 201er said:

I skipped adding my own take on it so that you all would have a chance to interpret it for yourselves. But now here's my thinking. And remember, there is no right answer because each of our planes' and own capabilities vary! I don't think a single one of these scenarios is potential against any specific regs but perhaps they could all be a violation of 91.13 depending who you ask!

Given a very pressing reason to fly and push myself to the max of my normal safety envelope, here's my take:

 

 

 

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.

Go. Not for sure, but probably a go. We never discussed the length of the trip, but given the long range capability of my Mooney with extended range tanks, under many circumstances I can fly to a destination and back to my departure with the amount of fuel I carry! So if my passenger load is light enough to allow me fuel to the destination, alternate, and still plenty to spare, I'd go. And by alternate, I mean some place in the VFR zone 300 miles out. I would not pick an alternate that is close to minimums with those conditions. This type of weather is fairly stationary so wouldn't expect things to change too much. So if I could get enough fuel, I would fly there, try an approach, try a few more times, and then get out of there. Without enough fuel to make it to VFR conditions with reserve, I wouldn't go.

Great questions to get folks thinking about what we would do.  Anyway, when I look at things like this online, Ioften skip over various items.   For example, I didn't even consider icing with these questions.  On real trips, I always do. --And I have run into icing in August.  (over Gunnison CO, at 18,000  -just one cloud little cloud in the way, clear below, and just above freezing.  but a story for another time) 

--In your scenario you mentioned several people would be going.  I took that to mean all 4 seats would be filled.  --Which would not leave much room for fuel.  I'm guessing after a weight and balance, your answer would change to NO on number 5.

 

I really enjoyed  Scenario 1.  It's almost the exact scenario of the Mooney accident in Angle Fire a few years back.  NTSB Report   For me, an altitude of 8000 feet means you are in the mountains.  33 gusting to 47 strait down the runway would keep me on the ground in flat lands.  No question about it in the mountains.

[201er]

Just now, chrisk said:

--In your scenario you mentioned several people would be going.  I took that to mean all 4 seats would be filled.  --Which would not leave much room for fuel.  I'm guessing after a weight and balance, your answer would change to NO on number 5.

I only stated 4 people specifically in scenario 1. For the general gist of the story I said several as in 2-3 passengers and not a specific number. Obviously the exact number and weight of each passenger would play a role in the exact W&B, fuel, and range. Another factor that could easily come into play for someone like me, and some of you, is that the plane is topped off with fuel and you have to take 4 on board... how do you handle this whole scenario then?

[bradp]

On April 15, 2016 at 2:09 PM, 201er said:

I only stated 4 people specifically in scenario 1. For the general gist of the story I said several as in 2-3 passengers and not a specific number. Obviously the exact number and weight of each passenger would play a role in the exact W&B, fuel, and range. Another factor that could easily come into play for someone like me, and some of you, is that the plane is topped off with fuel and you have to take 4 on board... how do you handle this whole scenario then?

I recall having gone on a east coast flying nerd trip a few years back in a C172.  One of my flying nerd buddies was a little bit higher gross than was let on and that made us over gross on a summer day.  Asked the line guys to help de-fuel the plane and a fuel donation was made to the FBO.  It hurt but it was the right thing to do. B

[Yooper Rocketman]

On 4/15/2016 at 1:09 PM, 201er said:

I only stated 4 people specifically in scenario 1. For the general gist of the story I said several as in 2-3 passengers and not a specific number. Obviously the exact number and weight of each passenger would play a role in the exact W&B, fuel, and range. Another factor that could easily come into play for someone like me, and some of you, is that the plane is topped off with fuel and you have to take 4 on board... how do you handle this whole scenario then?

With the Rocket, full fuel (105 gallons) and it's a two person airplane.  I rarely ever fuel  it completely, for that very reason.  As Brad stated, I would pump off fuel, fly off some fuel, or rearrange the passenger count.

Tom

[Steve Dietrich]

On 4/8/2016 at 2:33 PM, 201er said:

I would like to pose some weather scenarios for you to consider. It's easy to sit at home and be overly wise until you're actually under the gun making a decision. So let's say the situation is that you have to attend a relative's funeral you just learned about. It's too far to drive in time, impossible to get an airline ticket because you're going from small town to small town, and there's no time to postpone. The only way to make it is if you make the decision to launch. You have several others on board and being there is even more important to them than to you. For each of the following weather scenarios would you go or not? Consider your capabilities and your specific airplane's as well as the reasoning behind your decisions.

 

 

 

On 4/8/2016 at 2:33 PM, 201er said:

 

Going slow the second time around  I came back to 4 no   and 1 probably no .................

 

For all scenarios   add wider margin due to pressure to go  and death + pax

Insert each scenario into an accident report format and see if it sounds reasonable

Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.                              NO   wind direction, gusts ,  DA and 4 pax   not to mention that 3 barfing passangers constitutes low ifr   Return to airport  doubtful unless you are landing on taxiway   Windshear just off the deck is almost certain   

Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.

PROBABLY NOT What's missing are the tops and probability of ice plus altitude of  destination airport. 

Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.

NO     - ice   low ceiling with inability to return rain

Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.  NO   TS  and navigating to alts through TS

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.  NO - remote alternate  temps and low ceilings low viz