Weather Decisions

[WardHolbrook]

IMC or VMC is not "just flying".  Lose your engine in IMC like the poor guy we discussed with the Bonanza who crashed in Plainville, MA or my own experience where the mechanic failed to correctly reinstall the fuel pressure gauge resulting in a fire that killed the engine, and the result in  hard IMC is likely to be very different vs. VMC.  Clearly, you are very experienced and therefore it sounds like you may be a bit complacent regarding risks to equivocate both IMC and VMC as "just flying"'.  My opinion only, but complacency, even when related to competency, is another risk to manage.     . 

Think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. You are absolutely correct about the risks being different and of the danger of complacency. The point I was trying to make is that at some point the "mechanical" aspects of flying  - be it VFR or IFR, day or night - become automatic. You no longer have to give it much thought. It's not a matter of being complacent, it a matter of exposure. How many hundreds or thousands of night landings does one have to make before you've got it down pat? How many hundreds of hours of flying in IMC does it take before your scan and control inputs and responses become totally automatic, requiring little if any thought? Not everyone will achieve that level of proficiency because not everyone will get the opportunity to have the level of exposure that it requires. It's pretty tough to be completely at ease in IMC when you've only got 500 hours and your total actual instrument time is 20 or 30 hours and you're only flying 100 or so hours per year. That's a fact and I've not mentioned one thing about risks.

 When it comes to managing risks you've got to keep yourself solidly within 3 sets of parameters - Personal Capabilities, Aircraft Capabilities and Legal & Regulatory Requirements. The accident reports are filled with "low performance" pilots got themselves in deep kimchi while flying high performance airplanes. Having all of the whistles and bells doesn't compensate for lack of experience or judgement. We also see a plethora of accidents involving all sorts of pilots - including highly experienced ones - who attempt to fly their airplane outside of its performance envelope. It's easy to find right/wrong pilot, right/wrong airplane scenarios in just about any accident report. Experience doesn't allow you to manipulate the controls better, it allows you to fly smarter - exercise better judgement - which all boils down to know when to tell yourself "No". As far as the legal and regulatory stuff goes, you need to remember that just because something is legal does not mean that it is safe. (And just because something might be safe does not mean that it is legal.)

When it comes to judgement, there are caveats associated with flying airplanes, any airplane. When you're flying your Mooney or any other single-engine airplane the big thing to remember is that when (not if) the engine quits on you you will be landing shortly. Hopefully, as a result of dumb luck or good judgment, you will be in VMC over survivable terrain and able to see because you're going to be "up close and personal" with it shortly.

The big caveat when it comes to flying a twin is that when an engine quits on you, you had better have made the required investment in training and have the prerequisite level of skill to avoid turning the airplane into little more than a lawn dart. 

In my mind, the issue boils down to knowledge, skill, discipline, and judgement. You need to have a thorough understanding of what the airplane you're flying is capable of and not capable of doing in any given set of conditions. You also need to know how to achieve maximum performance. You need to have the skill and proficiency necessary to achieve that performance level. Finally, you need to have the discipline to avoid flying your airplane in those conditions/situations where the outcome would be questionable or worse. A review of the accident records clearly demonstrates the folly of those pilots who fail to do what is required to achieve and then maintain the required levels of knowledge, skill and proficiency to fly their airplane safely.

 

[PMcClure]

After getting my IFR certification, I found decisions were harder to make. As a VFR pilot, it was pretty easy to decide to go or not. But with IFR it is not always cut and dry. You can go, but should you is a harder question that is the weather VFR or not. 

I started with personal minimums then if I needed to go but conditions were worse, I would bring a long a CFI to coach me through. The upside was a lot of good experience in actual IFR conditions. But then I started to notice we rarely would make a no go decision. I ended up in some very serious weather but didn't know enough to be scared, trusting my 10,000 hour plus CFI to keep me out of trouble. Finally, I decided that if I couldn't make the go no decision without help from instructor, I didn't want to go. I fly for business but work for myself. Business is not worth risking my life and I don't have to be anywhere. I find myself taking fewer and fewer risks even though I have more experience (although still an amature). Getting help is not a bad idea, unless it encourages me to take risks I don't need to take. Not sure this is on topic but thought I would share.

[irishpilot]

I've flown in some nasty stuff for work, but that is in a high performance jet aircraft. With my Mooney, I will avoid icing, embedded TSorms, fog and low ceilings along my route (below approach mins). These planes are fast but won't be able to get over a lot of weather jets can, so remember that when you are on the fence.

Sent from my Galaxy S5 via Tapatalk

[Bob_Belville]

After getting my IFR certification, I found decisions were harder to make. As a VFR pilot, it was pretty easy to decide to go or not. But with IFR it is not always cut and dry. You can go, but should you is a harder question that is the weather VFR or not. 

I think my experience is the opposite. As a VFR pilot almost every cross country flight is tricky. Weather is forecast but reality can be pretty perverse. A current instrument rated pilot has much easier decisions to make: low ceilings? winter icing? summer convective activity? If those conditions are not going to be a factor the pilot need not fret about scud running below an overcast in limited visibility, getting caught on top, or even inadvertently getting into IMC. I suspect that almost all of us had tough times making decisions before we got a ticket.   

[1964-M20E]

After getting my IFR certification, I found decisions were harder to make. As a VFR pilot, it was pretty easy to decide to go or not. But with IFR it is not always cut and dry. You can go, but should you is a harder question that is the weather VFR or not. 

I started with personal minimums then if I needed to go but conditions were worse, I would bring a long a CFI to coach me through. The upside was a lot of good experience in actual IFR conditions. But then I started to notice we rarely would make a no go decision. I ended up in some very serious weather but didn't know enough to be scared, trusting my 10,000 hour plus CFI to keep me out of trouble. Finally, I decided that if I couldn't make the go no decision without help from instructor, I didn't want to go. I fly for business but work for myself. Business is not worth risking my life and I don't have to be anywhere. I find myself taking fewer and fewer risks even though I have more experience (although still an amature). Getting help is not a bad idea, unless it encourages me to take risks I don't need to take. Not sure this is on topic but thought I would share.

Agreed if you need to ask someone else if you should go you might want to seriously consider canceling the flight.

However, after getting my IR I find that making the decisions of weather or not to go is easier not more difficult.  I worried more about getting stranded somewhere VFR.  This can happen IFR and I have had to cancel and delay return flights due to weather even with my IR.  With the IR I can make many flights that I would otherwise have had to cancel and either drive or fly commercial.

[PMcClure]

I agree that after I had some experience in IMC and better knew what to expect, it was easier to make the go no go decision. But immediately after getting my IR, it was difficult to decide if I was ready or not. But with the IR, the utility of the airplane has increased a lot. You just have to remember that just because you can go, doesn't mean you should!