Crying Wolf?

[Mooneymite]

A question for you guys who fly IFR....

 

I flew from my home-drome down to St. Pete last weekend.  My pre-flight wx briefing showed the typcial band of clouds between TLH and JAX with the possibility of some thunderstorms to pop up as the day progressed.

 

As I progressed southeastward, I could see the forecast band of clouds in the distance, most of which we would top, some of which we could not.  When we were switched to Valdosta approach, the controller greated us with something like, "I'm showing moderate, to severe precipitation at your 12 o'clock with some areas of extreme."

 

That certainly got my attention, and you can imagine how my wife looked at me since I had assured her that it would be a nice flight!

 

We asked the controller for vectors around the weather and he suggested a wide detour over TAY, but since the weather was still quite a bit in the distance, and my stormscope was still "mostly dark", I told him we were going to "stay the course" until we got a little closer to the weather.  (We were still in the clear).

 

We proceeded and did get a few areas of light, to very light rain and eventually we were switched back to Jacksonville center who greeted us with essentially the same message, again using the "extreme" word.

 

It just didn't jibe with what we saw, or the storm scope display, so we asked her to keep us out of the bad stuff.  She made no suggestion for avoidance, nor did we see any reason for a change in course.  Eventually, we entered an area of darkening clouds and the controller suggested 10 degrees left.  We did that and never saw/experienced anything worse than light rain....the ride had been without a bump since take-off and the stormscope just displayed spurious, distant strikes, mostly off our right (the area the Valdosta controller had suggested we deviate).

 

Shortly, as we approached the CTY area, we broke out into the clear again.  Looking back to my right, I couldn't see any tall build-ups, dark clouds, or anything else that would warrant a warning of "extreme precipitation".

 

When I got back and discussed my experience with various flying buddies, they all agreed that recently, ATC has given them warnings far in excess of what the weather warranted.  I was wondering if anyone else had noticed this?

 

I'm all for an ATC that gives us "conservative warnings", but when the warnings are so far in excess of experience, how long will it be before pilots begin discounting the warnings?  If light rain can be construed as "extreme percipitation", what word, will be used when the weather is really bad?

 

Is ATC crying "Wolf!" needlessly?

 

 

 

.

 

 

[rbridges]

I would guess that the recent weather has conditioned them to be more careful.  We've had a lot more "pop up" thunderstorms this year in the southeast.  They're probably erring on the side of caution this season.

 

just a guess

[Rwsavory]

I would rather that ATC be conservative with these warnings.  During a trip in late April, Memphis Center was very assertive in warning pilots of areas of severe weather and when ATC asked if a pilot has radar, a negative answer prompted advice to make a large deviation.  It was justified.

[1964-M20E]

I was flying in FL between ORL and DTS last week and this weekend. Sometimes ATC does give you more intensity than what is there. Keep in mind the radar antenna that they are using to see weather may be up to 200NM away from your location. I have had them given me very accurate reports on the weather and others that were less accurate. I think the trick is to use all the information you have available and act accordingly. If you are flying along and you can see the buildups and the showers you do not have big problems unless of course it is an extensive line of TSRA or they are over your destination.

Last year I got ADSB-IN weather capability and it does help tremendously but the information must be used with caution and I will still ask ATC for some options if I'm uncertain.

[FAST FLIGHT OPTIONS LLC]

Do you have NEXRAD on board? If not, the warnings you’re going to get from ATC are not always going to coincide with what you’re seeing (or not seeing) on your storm scope. The storm scope depicts convective activity which is going to be the rough (and dangerous) ride you want to stay away from.

The wx and precipitation in FL is common in the summer time and can changes in minutes vice hours. I would say I have a 50/50 chance that the ride will still be ok in even heavy precipitation when not associated with convective activity or the dark CB clouds. When ATC tells me about precipitation ahead and my storm scope is clear the wx they are telling me about is usally there but I worry more about potential hail damage with the severe reports (which I have been able to avoid thus far) then the ride in most cases. The wx reports I receive from ATC almost always coincide with something I see on my 696

[David Mazer]

I've heard ATC note that their radar isn't really optimized to weather and so they can't be as precise.

[Mooneymite]

I've heard ATC note that their radar isn't really optimized to weather and so they can't be as precise.

 

 

 

I am interested in anyone that has noticed a change in how they report weather to pilots.  I don't think Jacksonville's capabilities have changed much in the past year, or two, but the way they report it to the pilots seems to have changed recently.  We all know that center weather is not the "real deal".

 

Like I said, a quick poll of my buddies seems to indicate my experience isn't unique.  Just wondered if other centers/areas are doing the same thing.

[Marauder]

I've heard ATC note that their radar isn't really optimized to weather and so they can't be as precise. I am interested in anyone that has noticed a change in how they report weather to pilots. I don't think Jacksonville's capabilities have changed much in the past year, or two, but the way they report it to the pilots seems to have changed recently. We all know that center weather is not the "real deal". Like I said, a quick poll of my buddies seems to indicate my experience isn't unique. Just wondered if other centers/areas are doing the same thing.

I think it depends on which facility you are being worked by. We all know their primary job is keep the metal separated and that assisting with weather is not a primary function. I find some facilities do point out weather and others are more in a reactive mode -- i.e. I need to ask for it. I can't say I have noticed an increase in "gloom and doom" warnings.

[WilliamR]

Mooneymite, I have rotuinely flown this route for 10 years.  Based at FFC and fly to SRQ.  I agree, I don't think Jax's or VLD's capabilities have changed.  i also have not found any change in the way they report echoes.  I have found in general over the years that VLD's radar seems to pick up a fair amount more of ground clutter than other facilities.  More than once in the last 10 years, I have been warned by VLD of heavy precipe at 12'o clock 3 miles and there be no precip.  Clouds yes, precip, no.  I have also found that most radar facilities use a composite presentation of precip much like XM.  Is it possible you were flying below heavier precip that was partially evaporating before reaching your aircraft?  I don't think controllers are overstating what they see on radar.  I think their radar just isn't that great. 

 

To see how often I fly that area, you can track N252D on flightaware.  Going back down end of month.

 

Out of curiousity, are you out of Peachstate or somewhere like Mallards?  Have a friend that has a Pitts 12 and C-195 at Big T.

 

William

[Mooneymite]

 

To see how often I fly that area, you can track N252D on flightaware.  Going back down end of month.

 

Out of curiousity, are you out of Peachstate or somewhere like Mallards?  Have a friend that has a Pitts 12 and C-195 at Big T.

 

William

Mallards....

 

Yes, I go to either HEG, or SPG fairly frequently as well, but I've never had them use the "Extreme" word for light rain before.

 

What makes this more of an issue, is that we were flying a Citation from HVN down to ESN the other day and we got the same sort of thing.....we were told to expect Armageddon weather-wise, but our radar did not show anything but green (rain).  We were encouraged to fly miles out of the way to avoid low rain clouds....we didn't and we got a nice smooth flight in clear air.  This is definitely something of a change.  I hate to disregard ATC's warnings, but they were not reasonable given "other information".

 

What gives?

[moodychief]

When I first got NEXRAD I was flying from Missouri to Arkansas in August. There was a 80 mile wide yellow swath over my route. The weather briefing had sigmets for turbulence and heavy rain. While airborne at 9,000 I was going to see how bad it was. All the jets in the flight levels were deviating for turbulence and weather. At 9,000 I didn't receive a drop of rain and was actually one of the smoothest flights I have had. I did a quick turn and flew the same route with the same experience. I have since flown through areas of large yellow that is high cloud layer that appears to be heavy precip on ATC radar.

I pay more attention to the concentrated areas of yellow and red returns surrounded by green as they are always indicators of extreme weather.