State of single engine prices - Thoughts?

[A64Pilot]

In the Military often after the pilot was rated after flight school, if they busted a check ride, it became a training ride, then of course they were retrained until they met standards, didn’t help their career so it didn’t often happen.

The checkride part is necessary to ensure min standards are met, it validates level of proficiency.

If in flight school, the busted ride was documented as such and was to a great extent really not good for a Career, you certainly didn’t get to pick your aircraft if you ever busted a ride. I know of only a few specific cases of more than one busted ride with the student still in school, but that was 40 years ago or thereabouts.

But what’s paramount and what I haven’t seen in the Civilian world is that the ride isn’t signed off until the applicant has met EVERY standard.

Many will argue this of course, I can only comment on what I’ve seen.

So yes training is the answer, but only if it’s quality as in hard training. Many won’t participate in that level of difficulty and they aren’t required to.

[Echo]

So I am really looking forward to a massive recession in 2023 as I am ready to buy and NOT at $90k for a M20E.  Keep living for the day and upgrading with your cash.  When it gets real I am here to take that burden off your hands.

[Echo]

"It's coming"  Now I can smell it.  Hear it.  See it.  The party is just about over and the fat lady is about to sing.  The dam that is the economy, the smoke and mirrors of artificial stimulation, the debacle of modern monetary policy is, like a tsunami, starting to roll...

 

[Echo]

I wonder who will be "To Big To Fail" this time?

[Echo]

Monday should be very interesting.  Popcorn ready...

Edited March 12, 2023 by Echo
spelling

[Fly Boomer]

10 minutes ago, Echo said:

I wonder who will be "To Big To Fail" this time?

Yellen says not happening.

[Fly Boomer]

21 minutes ago, Echo said:

"It's coming"  Now I can smell it.  Hear it.  See it.  The party is just about over and the fat lady is about to sing.  The dam that is the economy, the smoke and mirrors of artificial stimulation, the debacle of modern monetary policy is, like a tsunami, starting to roll...

 

This is exactly analogous to investing.  Keeping your money under the mattress can be a good strategy, but sometimes the bus leaves without you.

[Echo]

13 minutes ago, Fly Boomer said:

This is exactly analogous to investing.  Keeping your money under the mattress can be a good strategy, but sometimes the bus leaves without you.

Lol.  Like most I am riding the bus.  Enough nickel and diming.  Let the reset begin.

[Echo]

19 minutes ago, Fly Boomer said:

Yellen says not happening.

Not a big trust guy when it comes to Janet.

[Steve0715]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm

 

 

[1980Mooney]

4 hours ago, Steve0715 said:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm

If you read the release it says:

• A second bank was shut down by the Treasury and Fed - Signature Bank, New York
  • It makes it sound like the state shut it down but it was ordered by the Treasury and Fed  - they ordered the "state chartering authority" to shut it down
•  The press release makes it sound like there is no cost to "taxpayers" - That's BS

The FDIC is self- insured requiring banks to keep cash/funds idle in a reserve fund (they can't lend it and make money from it - it is dead weight for the bank).  - it is cash/fund equal to approx 1.35% of "insured" funds (also depends upon size and risk of bank)  And yes the FDIC is backed up by the Treasury if there is a massive run on many banks that overwhelms the reserve fund.

The Fed and Treasury are forcing the FDIC to take funds from the "reserve" and make Both insured and UNINSURED depositors whole.  Making Uninsured depositors whole is not what they are set up or capitalized to do.

All the remaining banks will now need to contribute additional funds to the idle reserve accounts 

Every remaining bank will have higher costs which they will pass on to depositors  and borrowers - individuals and businesses.

Small banks are already complaining about the added costs.

Ultimately we pay for it with increased financing costs and higher costs in goods/services due to businesses higher banking costs.

SV Bank was the second largest US bank failure in history.  It was brought down by a tweet by Peter Theil which caused a run on the bank.  Admittedly the bank was weak but  that is all it took.

Edited March 13, 2023 by 1980Mooney

[N201MKTurbo]

I currently work for a startup that had all its money in SVB. It looks like we will get all our money today. The CEO told me yesterday how much it is, not as bad as It could be. But a moot point now. I’m personally against the government bailing out this kind of mismanagement, but they caused it. In the end the government is taking all our money anyway.

[glbtrottr]

Having spent a couple of decades at a technology company that sold to a lot of startups, automakers, airlines and the like?

I don’t buy “bailouts”. It’s just a scam to relieve you of your hard earned money.

I’ll use a simple well known example- Solyndra. I mean, who couldn’t possibly want green energy, right? You’d be a Scrooge not to! Your wife of course knows you don’t want pollution for your grandkids, right? Let me send some guilt your way while I pinch your wallet. Feel familiar? I bet you could even hear my pitch and timbre sound like you’ve heard me before.

After the big government cash infusion, the golden parachute and bonuses, the early outs, the earn outs and so on, the executive compensation package buyouts, the resulting pump and dump antics, the predictable bankruptcy, the “too big to fail” neurolinguistic programming to keep everyone on board till the last second as the moving trucks roll up, you shutter it.

Then Elon Musk comes in to buy it for Pennies on the dollar with…government favors and subsidies- hello, Solar City!

Did that feel good, Mister Taxpayer? Do you feel relief about the dividend your government paid you on such a brilliant bailout? Oh wait - no dividend? No payout? What happened to your wallet? Awwwww…you mean you weren’t in on the deal? Sooo sorry but Im not sorry…

But they neeeded a bailout! Look at your own company! You didn’t build thaaat…

[Steve0715]

1 hour ago, Evan said:

I'm against the general principle of "bailing out" as well. However, what other choice do we have? If regulators aren't going to be watching what banks are doing with their deposits, then these situations will continue to happen. Its human nature to push the limits until they break. 

Protecting the bank customers was the only move the Fed could make.  Period.  However, this is just the start.  There will be many more to come and the Fed balance sheet gets much larger.  Inflation will get worse because the Fed won’t raise interest rates sufficiently to squash the inflation.  In the end there will be pain. 
 

[N201MKTurbo]

1 hour ago, Evan said:

I'm against the general principle of "bailing out" as well. However, what other choice do we have? If regulators aren't going to be watching what banks are doing with their deposits, then these situations will continue to happen. Its human nature to push the limits until they break. 

Yes the regulators screwed up and let them invest in government bonds…..

[Steve0715]

5 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Yes the regulators screwed up and let them invest in government bonds…..

If they had invested in short term bond, no problem.  But the greed was too much, they invested in longer term bond.  As interest rates rose, the value of the bonds went down in a substantial manner.  It would have worked had their depositors just not made a run for their money.  But you are 100% right that the regulators let it happen.  Maybe it should be illegal for banks and their employees to donate or lobby politicians?

[N201MKTurbo]

32 minutes ago, Steve0715 said:

If they had invested in short term bond, no problem.  But the greed was too much, they invested in longer term bond.  As interest rates rose, the value of the bonds went down in a substantial manner.  It would have worked had their depositors just not made a run for their money.  But you are 100% right that the regulators let it happen.  Maybe it should be illegal for banks and their employees to donate or lobby politicians?

They should have known months ago if interest rates went up by X amount, they would be in trouble. Of course, they did that’s why they did the stock issue, but they weren’t counting on the stock crashing. It’s like the bank was living paycheck to paycheck. 

[Echo]

A bunch of excuse makers.  Just like 2008.  "Well the government had to bail them out".  Pffft.  Where is the pain?  The financial system is a bunch of smoke and mirrors and printing presses.  Consequences for poor decision making?  There are none when you can fire up the printing presses.  Keep being smug and knowing it all.  This is becoming Weimar 2.0.  The train has left the station and is picking up steam.  Burn it down says I.  Bail outs :(

[Mac80]

On 12/29/2022 at 7:30 PM, Tommooney said:

Its all time relative.

I bought my Ovation new in Sept 2003 for list price $399K with 10% down and 6% interest on a 15 year loan . It seemed like a huge amount of money then, compared to previously had a cherry twin commanche that I bought $45K 1987 and sold for $45K in 1992.  The Ovation is paid off now. I have no regrets and a great experience buying the best plane I could afford for commuting from SoCal home and business to my farm in OTH OR. It seldom has needed repairs between annuals. Unlike the many talented mechanical types on here, I don't do my own maintenance. I don't trust myself going there. I go to MSCs for annuals. It has never left me stranded.

If buying a forever plane looking 20 years out, I recommend the newest , lowest hour plane you can find. I believe you will not regret the money,      but I do now regret selling that  twin commanche N7825Y for $45K.....( it broke a lot and parts were hard to get fast back then. )

Out of owning 4 planes in 45 years , I have not sold any of them for less than I paid.

Good luck out there.

Tom

 

 

[Mac80]

Bought my J 20 years ago, been paid off for several years. My wife insisted I get the best plane I could not afford.
Use it for commuting to ranch too. 

Just  paid $1,050 for replacement battery lasted 9 years. Last year had prop overhauled for second time.

Every time I leave the hangar I reflect on how lucky I have been to enjoy flying it and how amazing the Mooney is  cutting back travel time and enjoyment.

No regrets.

[1980Mooney]

42 minutes ago, Echo said:

A bunch of excuse makers.  Just like 2008.  "Well the government had to bail them out".  Pffft.  Where is the pain?  The financial system is a bunch of smoke and mirrors and printing presses.  Consequences for poor decision making?  There are none when you can fire up the printing presses.  Keep being smug and knowing it all.  This is becoming Weimar 2.0.  The train has left the station and is picking up steam.  Burn it down says I.  Bail outs

Signiture Bank, the other bank taken over and bailed out this weekend, was brought down by their more recent decision and push to attract Crypto currency deposits.  Crypto is the biggest black box in the world.  It needs more regulation not less - yet you have people like Ted Cruz arguing that crupto should be less regulated.  Thankfully Cruz is not on the Senate banking committee.

[1980Mooney]

1 hour ago, N201MKTurbo said:

They should have known months ago if interest rates went up by X amount, they would be in trouble. Of course, they did that’s why they did the stock issue, but they weren’t counting on the stock crashing. It’s like the bank was living paycheck to paycheck. 

Yes they were.  They were trying to manage through it.   And it was Peter Thiel's Tweet that caused the bank run.  It was the electronic version of yelling "Fire" at busy leaky gas station - and then tossing a lit cigarette as he drives off with a few of his "buddies" ....

[Fly Boomer]

2 hours ago, Steve0715 said:

Maybe it should be illegal for banks and their employees to donate or lobby politicians?

That ship sailed.  It's now legal for any entity to pump any amount of money into any PAC.  Anonymously.  The Golden Rule at work.

[1980Mooney]

5 hours ago, Evan said:

Anytime I hear this, I open up my brokerage accounts and start buying. I'm often reminded of the quote from Buffett "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy."

 

7 minutes ago, Evan said:

Remember when Bill Ackman did this at the beginning of COVID? Mass panic in the market. He comes in, buys up a bunch of stuff, and as the market typically does, it rebounded. 

That doesn't always work.  I recall people in Houston buying Enron when it was on the way down saying those same things.  Memories are selective...

[glbtrottr]

That ship sailed.  It's now legal for any entity to pump any amount of money into any PAC.  Anonymously.  The Golden Rule at work.

And this is the key. “Any” entity. Entities that are specifically against our best interests. Entities that are foreign governments that despise our way of life.

I’ve spent a few recent years in various college systems; if you’re in your 50’s and 60’s or later, the information people are demanded to learn and believe would make you enraged.

Want to get a straight 4.0 in college? Piece of cake- sign up with Quizlet, studyblue, Chegg, and the answers to every test are all listed. The value of an A obtained through hard work is virtually nil. Proctoring? That Can be defeated too- teachers cheat everywhere and so do students- so patriotism and doing the right thing is relabeled as racism and hatred…hard work to buy our Mooneys has been overtaken by our children staying in our homes well into their 30’s and beyond. Understanding basic micro and macroeconomics? Nope - we have other priorities. And please, don’t look at the Fed, our government budget being balanced, the value of currency, supply and demand, or even ask how government pays for things - government has unlimited money and certain groups of people simply just make too much. We need to make sure everyone has free healthcare, free college and a regular government- supplied income. Cloward Piven, anyone?