Should Tesla buy Mooney?

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

4 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

So what’s the incentive needed for?

For buying the crappy EVs that nobody wants, but are made by unions for big, politically connected companies in politically 'important' places.

[Kmac]

14 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

There is zero problem with selling Tesla’s I’ll bet very soon the popular models will be sold out for this year.

Seeing values of used Tesla's, I placed an order for another MY back in September.   We are slated for a June delivery.  Our 2020 MY with 40k miles (who knows how many when we sell it) will be worth the same as our new MY order price.

[A64Pilot]

53 minutes ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

For buying the crappy EVs that nobody wants, but are made by unions for big, politically connected companies in politically 'important' places.

Quite a few apparently want them, and while I’m sure some are in fact crappy, not all are.

Tesla goes back to 03, started deliveries in 09 I think with the roadster, started delivery of the first four door in 2012, I believe and they were overpriced (in my opinion)and likely had their problems.

But ten years have gone by since then and in my opinion the Model 3 is a mature enough design and priced so I can afford one and in my opinion competes well against any other car, look at its crash ratings for instance, and it’s 0-60 / 1/4 mile times, and if your really so inclined see how well the performance model is doing on the Nuremberg ring, once they get decent brakes that is. An electric car is heavy, and if really pushed hard on a track, has to have world class brakes due to its weight, I assume it chews up tires too for the same reason.

 However many feel as you do, and I think it’s funny, the same was true with the Prius, many turned their noses up at it, and continued to put a large part of their income into paying for driving a large SUV, why?

Me, I gives a rats behind what powers the thing, I do want a safe, relatively quick fun car to drive that’s reliable, and inexpensive to own, you simply can’t have all of those things in an ICE vehicle, my Mazdaspeed Miata comes close in the fun to drive, but I don’t think anyone can argue it’s as safe, and it costs much more to operate. Her CTS-V is faster than the Tesla and certainly is a better track car, but not as fun as the Miata, but it’s operating costs would keep me from flying if she drove it to work everyday.

If the Tesla’s were crap it would be all over the news as especially in the car mags, they have their haters there fueled largely I’m sure because Tesla won’t spend a nickel on the car mag adds, unlike BMW who has more adds than everyone else combined.

It’s funny that so many hate them, why do they even care?

Oh, and Tesla isn’t union, which is I’m sure why politically they have been snubbed so much lately

Edited March 9, 2022 by A64Pilot

[EricJ]

34 minutes ago, Kmac said:

Seeing values of used Tesla's, I placed an order for another MY back in September.   We are slated for a June delivery.  Our 2020 MY with 40k miles (who knows how many when we sell it) will be worth the same as our new MY order price.

I bought a one-year-old 2017 Ford Fusion Hybrid in 2018 when I started commuting 45-minutes each way to A&P school.   I had planned to sell it and buy a Cayman or C8 Corvette or something when I finished school, but I liked it enough that I've kept it.   I've put 40k miles on it since I bought it.

It is worth what I paid for it or a little more.

The used car market is interesting these days.  The supply chain issues are still having quite an effect.    As things start to settle out I suspect the trends will shift significantly.   I'm hoping I can see it coming early enough to leverage some changes to my advantage.

[A64Pilot]

One wonders about the supply chain issues that keep Ford, GM, Toyota from building cars.

I believe Tesla actually pretty much doubled their production last year, I guess Tesla doesn’t have supply chain issues?

OK so it was only an 87% increase 

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38657616/tesla-million-evs-worldwide-2021/

[Schllc]

19 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

This is an Elon musk cringe thread. 
 

no way is any electric airplane going to be based on a metal airplane. Especially one with a history of not selling units. 
 

it needs to be a light clean sheet composite design, and not a retrofit of something from the 50s or 60s. 
 

Your performance information is fantasy. 
 

Your useful load is bad, your range is bad, your charging strategy is bad. 
 

I just drove my model Y across the country and it was a terrible experience I’d never want to share with my airplane. 

I reluctantly agree with the comments about the airframe.
I  believe it’s also a function of the way our society evolved.  
We just aren’t producing skilled labor anymore.  Kids today are discouraged from using their hands (aside from mobile devices that is), and to what end?  
Look at any skilled labor industry, and you’ll notice almost everyone competent is in their late 40’s or older. The younger generation isn’t interested in working this way. 
The automated processes that ares so well suited to composites is an adaptation to lack of capable people as well technological advances. 
That being said, the value in Mooney is really in the manufacturing certificate.  
Anyone who did aspire to build planes would be well advised to buy a company that already had the ability to produce something, the revenue stream from supporting the fleet is a bonus(assuming you make a viable product) in cash flow.

Cirrus did a masterful job with marketing, creating a sub culture, but most importantly developing a financing and training arm that turned a lot of people who would otherwise never even have flown, into pilots. In the end though, it’s still really about demand

[A64Pilot]

Did you know that NASA looked at putting the F-1 back into production for the SLS (the saturn five booster motor) and discovered that we couldn’t do it, literally couldn’t even with unlimited funding.

The reason is lack of skilled labor, there are lots of excuses and explanations about how things are better and more precise now, but the bottom line is that the skilled fabricators, welders etc just don’t exist anymore. 

https://apollo11space.com/why-cant-we-remake-the-rocketdyne-f1-engine/

Edited March 10, 2022 by A64Pilot

[Kmac]

20 hours ago, Kmac said:

True that there are losses in charging, however, charging at a Supercharger only charges you for the kWh your vehicle accepted, they don't charge you for their losses.  That is part of the reason that charging at Superchargers are more expensive.

@Schllc

 

Sorry about the confusion...I can explain in further detail...

 

When you charge at home you take power from the power company to charge your electric vehicle.  There are charging losses that occur from your meter to actually getting the power to your battery.  The electric company may charge you for say 50kWh while your car only charged 45kWh.

At a supercharger if your car battery actually accepts 45kWh Tesla charges you for 45 kWh even though Tesla may have to pay the power company for 50kWh.

 

The same would be the case for an electric aircraft that you charge in your hangar.  It may take 230kWh from the electric company to charge your 220kWh battery to 100%.

[A64Pilot]

Funny thing about charging losses. I can find on the internet thet it’s only 85% efficient, which sounds high as that would be an enormous amount of heat and yet the pack doesn’t get hot when charged at home.

However looking at Teslafi it seems my charging has been roughly about 95% efficient , perhaps that 85% is coming from people up North who's car sit in the cold and the pack has to be heated to charge?

Bottom line is there are several sets of numbers. One set from fans who inflate them, another from haters who deflate them and the real numbers.

The real numbers aren’t hard to get though if you use a Tesla wall charger, it has a shunt and reports KWH consumed and the car reports KWH added to the battery, the difference of course is the charge efficiency.

My efficiency seems to run about 95% on average, one can also get cents per mile from this too

 

[Kmac]

While we're at it...

Adding solar panel sheeting to the wing of an electric aircraft could extend range and charge the aircraft while on the ramp.

A Mooney could accept about 150sq ft of solar panel sheeting while each square foot would provide around 15 watts of power per hour.  In good conditions your Mooney could add 2.25 kWh every hour.  Flying to the beach for a day and parking on the ramp for 10 hours would add back 22.5kWh.  If you fly somewhere for a week getaway and leave your Mooney on the ramp you could potentially have a full charge...

Just an example...175 Watt 12 Volt Flexible Monocrystalline Solar Panel | Renogy

 

[N201MKTurbo]

1 hour ago, A64Pilot said:

Did you know that NASA looked at putting the F-1 back into production for the SLS (the saturn five booster motor) and discovered that we couldn’t do it, literally couldn’t even with unlimited funding.

The reason is lack of skilled labor, there are lots of excuses and explanations about how things are better and more precise now, but the bottom line is that the skilled fabricators, welders etc just don’t exist anymore. 

https://apollo11space.com/why-cant-we-remake-the-rocketdyne-f1-engine/

Have you ever looked at one of those? the bell is thousands of SS tubes TIG welded together by hand. It has to take months to weld one of those up. Can you imagine being the welder who blew a hole in the thing on the last weld? that would be like a $10 megabuck mistake! They talk about steely eyed missile men. They are nothing compared to steely eyed welders!

[N201MKTurbo]

1 hour ago, Kmac said:

While we're at it...

Adding solar panel sheeting to the wing of an electric aircraft could extend range and charge the aircraft while on the ramp.

A Mooney could accept about 150sq ft of solar panel sheeting while each square foot would provide around 15 watts of power per hour.  In good conditions your Mooney could add 2.25 kWh every hour.  Flying to the beach for a day and parking on the ramp for 10 hours would add back 22.5kWh.  If you fly somewhere for a week getaway and leave your Mooney on the ramp you could potentially have a full charge...

Just an example...175 Watt 12 Volt Flexible Monocrystalline Solar Panel | Renogy

 

The EPA says that a gallon of gas is worth 33.7 KWh. If we could add 2.25 KWh for 8 hours a day (most solar panels will produce about 1/3 of their nameplate power over the course of a sunny day), it would take 125 days to produce the same power as a tank of gas.

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

8 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Have you ever looked at one of those? the bell is thousands of SS tubes TIG welded together by hand. It has to take months to weld one of those up. Can you imagine being the welder who blew a hole in the thing on the last weld? that would be like a $10 megabuck mistake! They talk about steely eyed missile men. They are nothing compared to steely eyed welders!

That is also one of the best applications for 3-D printing.  Its biggest problem, right now, is the cost.  Machinery is expensive and slow, and thus suitable only for very high-dollar projects.

I do see 3-D printing entire air frames for consumer production, but probably not for 30-40 years.

[N201MKTurbo]

3 minutes ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

That is also one of the best applications for 3-D printing.  Its biggest problem, right now, is the cost.  Machinery is expensive and slow, and thus suitable only for very high-dollar projects.

I do see 3-D printing entire air frames for consumer production, but probably not for 30-40 years.

That would be some SLS machine that could do a rocket bell 10 feet in diameter and 10 feet tall. It could be done. It would be an impressive machine!

[N201MKTurbo]

16 minutes ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

That is also one of the best applications for 3-D printing.  Its biggest problem, right now, is the cost.  Machinery is expensive and slow, and thus suitable only for very high-dollar projects.

I do see 3-D printing entire air frames for consumer production, but probably not for 30-40 years.

This is the biggest one out there now, and it isn't big enough to do a rocket bell.

https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/norsk-titanium-3d-prints-worlds-first-approved-structural-titanium-components-commercial-flight-110497/

 

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

11 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

That would be some SLS machine that could do a rocket bell 10 feet in diameter and 10 feet tall. It could be done. It would be an impressive machine!

Not necessarily SLS.  Could also be deposition-type, with several heads working at once.  Either way, you are right; an impressive machine.

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

16 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

Quite a few apparently want them, and while I’m sure some are in fact crappy, not all are.

Tesla goes back to 03, started deliveries in 09 I think with the roadster, started delivery of the first four door in 2012, I believe and they were overpriced (in my opinion)and likely had their problems.

But ten years have gone by since then and in my opinion the Model 3 is a mature enough design and priced so I can afford one and in my opinion competes well against any other car, look at its crash ratings for instance, and it’s 0-60 / 1/4 mile times, and if your really so inclined see how well the performance model is doing on the Nuremberg ring, once they get decent brakes that is. An electric car is heavy, and if really pushed hard on a track, has to have world class brakes due to its weight, I assume it chews up tires too for the same reason.

 However many feel as you do, and I think it’s funny, the same was true with the Prius, many turned their noses up at it, and continued to put a large part of their income into paying for driving a large SUV, why?

Me, I gives a rats behind what powers the thing, I do want a safe, relatively quick fun car to drive that’s reliable, and inexpensive to own, you simply can’t have all of those things in an ICE vehicle, my Mazdaspeed Miata comes close in the fun to drive, but I don’t think anyone can argue it’s as safe, and it costs much more to operate. Her CTS-V is faster than the Tesla and certainly is a better track car, but not as fun as the Miata, but it’s operating costs would keep me from flying if she drove it to work everyday.

If the Tesla’s were crap it would be all over the news as especially in the car mags, they have their haters there fueled largely I’m sure because Tesla won’t spend a nickel on the car mag adds, unlike BMW who has more adds than everyone else combined.

It’s funny that so many hate them, why do they even care?

Oh, and Tesla isn’t union, which is I’m sure why politically they have been snubbed so much lately

I think it is worth looking at the history of the Wankel.  It almost supplanted the reciprocating engine at the Big 3 in the 1970s, even though its advantages were/are countered by its numerous negatives.  A wall calendar cartoon of the time even made a joke about having to replace your Wankel for the seventh time, rather than waiting for the inevitable turbine.  The comparison to EVs and people's defense of them is repeating, (or at least rhyming), history.  Guys regularly lie about their performance, (double/triple entendre intended), and that is why you see what you call hate.

Tesla produces the vast majority of EVs in the US, and the figures I find in a quick search show that number to be about 1/12th that of large pick up trucks.  I regularly haul a 4-wheeler and other equipment and sometimes pull a boat, travel 800 miles on a tank of fuel, which no EV can presently do, and I suspect the other people who buy pick ups have similar needs. 

I submit that the EV market will not be much more than it is now, without serious changes, and that Tesla will remain the dominant player for some time, greatly because Tesla won the 'cool' war.  Other companies are trying with hybrids, which are nothing but an ugly compromise, or their crappy versions of EVs, which will remain a fraction of Tesla sales.

[Kmac]

3 minutes ago, AH-1 Cobra Pilot said:

Tesla won the 'cool' war.

Tesla didn't win that...Tesla, until recently, was the only electric vehicle that you could purchase that had any acceleration and respectable range.

Tesla is still the only manufacturer that installed its own charging infrastructure...

When you buy a Tesla you buy the charging infrastructure with it...with any other manufacturer all you are getting is an electric car...they don't care if you can charge it.

[chriscalandro]

4 hours ago, Kmac said:

Tesla didn't win that...Tesla, until recently, was the only electric vehicle that you could purchase that had any acceleration and respectable range.

Tesla is still the only manufacturer that installed its own charging infrastructure...

When you buy a Tesla you buy the charging infrastructure with it...with any other manufacturer all you are getting is an electric car...they don't care if you can charge it.

On my trip nearly every supercharger stop had a electrify America stop nearby. Because Tesla did t use a standardized charge port connector like everyone else, I need an adapter to charge anywhere that’s not a Tesla charger. Including home, work, and electrify America chargers. 
 

in my experience this is NOT a benefit of Tesla. 
 

Yes, they have the supercharger network for Tesla, but they are not the only infrastructure game in town, and as things grow it’s going to become more a negative to have a proprietary connector you have to have adaptors for.  I believe I could have made the same trip in the same way, if not faster in a rivian, which I can then charge at work, around town, and home without adaptors. 
 

it’s a good car, but it’s not without its problems. Problems I certainly wouldn’t want on my airplane. 
 

mooney failed to have a competitive product with a 60 year old design in a modern composite marketplace. Adapting it to be electric is not going to be a solid plan, tesla is not a magical company, and Elon Musk may be a great salesman, a genius he is not. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by chriscalandro

[aviatoreb]

Reading this thread - 

I am asking myself again - why isn't plug in hybrid electric bigger?  Its completely useful in all ways.  Long range no problem just fill up.  Short range you want to run all electric, no problem.

I remember watching part of a series on was it Amazon, of some Scottish guys who wanted to drive the length of South America as an adventure show, on electric motorcycles built by Harley.  Sometimes they had a real problem making their next stop so what they did was tie a rope between the bike and the film crew truck and drag a few miles which both made miles and served to put a little bit of charge in the batteries.  Now that's hybrid electric!

[Kmac]

5 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

On my trip nearly every supercharger stop had a electrify America stop nearby.

I've charged at probably 75 different superchargers and I don't recall seeing an Electrify America charger near any of them.  I do recall some Chargepoint chargers but they were only level 2...

By the way...I spoke about the VW's I drove previously.  They were all diesel vehicles which were purchased back because of dieselgate.  Part of that settlement was $2 billion that went to install Electrify America chargers.  Whenever you see an EA charger you can think of VW and dieslegate...

5 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

Because Tesla did t use a standardized charge port connector like everyone else, I need an adapter to charge anywhere that’s not a Tesla charger. Including home, work, and electrify America chargers. 

Tesla developed their plug before there was even a standard.  https://thedriven.io/2018/10/10/tesla/amp/  It is also much more aesthetically pleasing than the other versions that have now become standard...

5 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

Including home, work, and electrify America chargers. 

You don't use a Tesla charger at home?  Why would you have a Tesla and charge at an Electrify America charger?

5 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

mooney failed to have a competitive product with a 60 year old design in a modern composite marketplace.

I don't disagree that older Mooney's look older...  Soon, though, you will be saying that about any aircraft that has an ICE engine and not an electric motor...

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Kmac
addition

[A64Pilot]

The adapter you speak of is about the size of my hand, made of plastic and cheap.

I’ve never charged anywhere but home, so never used the included adapter, Tesla will soon open its Supercharger network to everyone. Why? Because they are a moneymaker that’s why

Trucks and SUV’s are unfortunately on the horizon, why do I say unfortunately? Because however they are powered, they are inefficient for just hauling people and that is what the majority of them are used for, the truck to drive the Accountant to work, the three row SUV to drive his wife shopping.

I don’t hate trucks, fo r people that have an actual use, they are fine, my last truck was a C3500 four door Duramax Diesel but I pulled a JD-410 backhoe, a 36 ft fifth wheel, Center console boat and associated farm equipment.

But most buy F-150’s and never put anything in the bed much less tow anything.

I post real numbers as of this morning she clocked over 5,000 miles, and we spent $190 on electricity doing so.

To drive that Miata 5,000 miles takes 200 gl of gas, at todays price that’s $1,000, those are “real” numbers. To drive an SUV or PU those 5,000 miles I’d bet cost at least half again what it does to drive a Miata, probably more.

This chart is “real numbers” as of today

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by A64Pilot

[A64Pilot]

28 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Reading this thread - 

I am asking myself again - why isn't plug in hybrid electric bigger?  Its completely useful in all ways.  Long range no problem just fill up.  Short range you want to run all electric, no problem.

I remember watching part of a series on was it Amazon, of some Scottish guys who wanted to drive the length of South America as an adventure show, on electric motorcycles built by Harley.  Sometimes they had a real problem making their next stop so what they did was tie a rope between the bike and the film crew truck and drag a few miles which both made miles and served to put a little bit of charge in the batteries.  Now that's hybrid electric!

Hybrids are very complex, they contain ALL of the parts of an ICE vehicle, and ALL of the parts of an EV and therefore are expensive and complex machines. Toyota Engineers had to be Geniuses to pull off the Prius, when you dig into it, it’s far and away the most complex car on the road.

‘These links explain just a little about a Prius

https://priuschat.com/threads/the-five-stages-of-prius-hybrid-operation.12919/

http://prius.ecrostech.com/original/Understanding/PowerSplitDevice.htm

An EV by comparison is really just a golf cart, sure a high speed computerized golf cart, but a golf cart none the less.

An EV ought to cost a fraction of what it cost to build a Hybrid, and I believe much cheaper than an ICE vehicle, think about all of the parts an EV doesn’t have from starters to pollution controls, exhaust systems, alternators, it’s a long list.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by A64Pilot

[jaylw314]

21 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

Hybrids are very complex, they contain ALL of the parts of an ICE vehicle, and ALL of the parts of an EV and therefore are expensive and complex machines. Toyota Engineers had to be Geniuses to pull off the Prius, when you dig into it, it’s far and away the most complex car on the road.

‘These links explain just a little about a Prius

https://priuschat.com/threads/the-five-stages-of-prius-hybrid-operation.12919/

http://prius.ecrostech.com/original/Understanding/PowerSplitDevice.htm

An EV by comparison is really just a golf cart, sure a high speed computerized golf cart, but a golf cart none the less.

An EV ought to cost a fraction of what it cost to build a Hybrid, and I believe much cheaper than an ICE vehicle, think about all of the parts an EV doesn’t have from starters to pollution controls, exhaust systems, alternators, it’s a long list.

 

Honda's Accord Hybrid is an interesting simpler variant.  At low speeds, it functions as a gasoline-electric, with the gas motor only driving a generator, and the wheels only powered by an electric motor, which gets power from either the battery, generator or both.  Once above 50 mph at low power, a clutch connects the gas motor to the drivetrain directly (with the electric motor assisting).  If needed, the gas motor can declutch from the drivetrain and go back to gas-electric mode.

The advantage is it eliminates the weight and complexity of the geared transmission.  Practically, it drives like a CVT a low speeds, and once it hits highway speed the drivetrain works like other hybrids.

I thought it was a pretty good idea, and it overcomes one limitation of a true electric or gasoline-electric (low available power at high speeds), while still having less complexity and weight than a true hybrid

[EricJ]

8 minutes ago, jaylw314 said:

Honda's Accord Hybrid is an interesting simpler variant.  At low speeds, it functions as a gasoline-electric, with the gas motor only driving a generator, and the wheels only powered by an electric motor, which gets power from either the battery, generator or both.  Once above 50 mph at low power, a clutch connects the gas motor to the drivetrain directly (with the electric motor assisting).  If needed, the gas motor can declutch from the drivetrain and go back to gas-electric mode.

The advantage is it eliminates the weight and complexity of the geared transmission.  Practically, it drives like a CVT a low speeds, and once it hits highway speed the drivetrain works like other hybrids.

I thought it was a pretty good idea, and it overcomes one limitation of a true electric or gasoline-electric (low available power at high speeds), while still having less complexity and weight than a true hybrid

Hybrids seem like a good long-term solution to me.   They provide the energy recapture of an electric vehicle, and the current gasoline infrastructure eliminates electric range or charge time limitations.   The energy density problem is essentially solved with a small fuel tank.  

I've been a performance car guy most of my life, and prior to my Fusion Hybrid had a Cadillac CTS-V as a daily driver.   I was a little worried about it being underpowered, but it isn't.   The gas and electric drivetrains operate pretty seamlessly together.   I drive it like I'd drive anything else, and even though it just has a little four cylinder naturally-aspirated ICE, I've never felt like it was underpowered.    I don't think the complexity argument is valid.    This car is a lot simpler than than the CTS-V was, and has been nearly zero maintenance in the four years that I've owned it.   It's probably one of the most reliable cars I've ever owned, and I commuted 45-minutes each way with it every day for two years.

While I hope all-electric vehicle technology catches on and works out ultimately, I suspect it'll take a long time to get there.   Changing the infrastructure and solving the remaining battery problems seem like pretty high hurdles that may potentially never get solved due to physical, environmental, or economic limitations.    It is, however, pretty practical already to do hybrid systems and get the benefits of both worlds.   After driving mine for the last four years I'd be happy with hybrid everything for ground vehicles.   Airplanes not so much, but Ford has some really nice hybrid trucks right now, too.   The towing capacity of their hybrid pickups was higher than the gas models the last time I looked.