Semi-rant... Pilots here prob feel the pain as I do...

[flyboy0681]

I think there is more pain to come when AVGAS starts creeping north of $7/gallon.

And just my rotten luck too. I'm retiring at the end of this month and thought I would start using some of my new found freedom by taking some long trips. When I first hatched this idea prices were south of $4.00

 

[Mark89114]

1 hour ago, flyboy0681 said:

I think there is more pain to come when AVGAS starts creeping north of $7/gallon.

And just my rotten luck too. I'm retiring at the end of this month and thought I would start using some of my new found freedom by taking some long trips. When I first hatched this idea prices were south of $4.00

 

I still have 60 gallons left I bought at $4.04.....am I inflation hedging?

 

[EricJ]

3 hours ago, Mark89114 said:

I still have 60 gallons left I bought at $4.04.....am I inflation hedging?

 

[A64Pilot]

21 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

You kind of answered your own question there

As a manager, there've been three main stories I've heard from people leaving the business:

1. "I don't get paid enough to deal with the s--t I do and didn't realize it until now, so I don't want to work"
2. "I've saved up enough to retire anyway"
3. "I always wanted to be a stay-at-home husband/wife and my partner makes enough"

I think most believe #1 is the most common.  In my experience is that it's actually in increasing order, with #3 the most common, so blame it on the costs of child care and the aging workforce.  All it takes is losing 5% of your workforce to #2 and #3 to cause a labor shortage.  We're experiencing a group of people who previously had little leverage suddenly having more economic power as a result of other people deciding not to work.  I'm unsure if that's a good or bad thing.

But that isn’t the low wage jobs I’m talking bout, those people rarely ever have any saved money, not because they are lazy or stupid but because at the end of the month there is nothing left to save.

So sure number 1. is certainly the attitude and it’s a deserved one too, but how do you pull it off? It takes money to live, eat, pay the rent 

Edited March 7, 2022 by A64Pilot

[jaylw314]

1 hour ago, A64Pilot said:

But that isn’t the low wage jobs I’m talking bout, those people rarely ever have any saved money, not because they are lazy or stupid but because at the end of the month there is nothing left to save.

So sure number 1. is certainly the attitude and it’s a deserved one too, but how do you pull it off? It takes money to live, eat, pay the rent 

I was talking about some fairly low wage jobs, not physicians.  A lot of the health care industry is built on staff that is underpaid simply because a part of them isn't doing it for the money.

So far the majority who've left have pointed out that with schools closed for a chunk of time, it would have cost them more to find a way to pay for child care than to stay home when they're being paid a little more than minimum wage, and we are one of the higher minimum wage vs cost of living states.  So yes, it makes total sense for those dual earners to bail on one of their salaries in exchange for not having to pay for child care.  That will always be a factor since people are always having children.  At least the people retiring early have cleared out, so that there isn't another wave of people ready to retire for a while longer.

Edited March 8, 2022 by jaylw314

[0TreeLemur]

11 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

I think there is more pain to come when AVGAS starts creeping north of $7/gallon.

And just my rotten luck too. I'm retiring at the end of this month and thought I would start using some of my new found freedom by taking some long trips. When I first hatched this idea prices were south of $4.00

 

The bulk of avgas is still BTEX, isn't it?   I always thought that the TEL is what made our fuel more expensive than UL because it is made globally only at one facility in the UK.  Am I wrong?  It seems to me that at least in the US, BTEX+TEL+tax should be TEL+tax higher than UL?   That is unless you to to one of those "red-carpet/white gloves, free water, soda and mints, FOLLOW-ME golf cart type" FBOs.

[A64Pilot]

Physicians? where did that come from? Low wage people don’t Retire, they eventually age out and can’t work. There is no Retirement  from fast food, working at Walmart or JCPenny’s etc. has no Retirement, most aren’t even full time so there are no benefits either.

Yes I can see the logic of low wages not covering child care, but that’s always been the case, that’s not new, people work low wage jobs because they have to not because they love it, but suddenly they apparently don’t have to anymore, so how is that the case? Yes I know during the pandemic foreclosures were stopped and unemployment was greatly enhanced and extended and that a not insignificant number of people actually had more money than they did working, but that’s come to an end hasn’t it?

So what’s driving the huge shortage in Labor? It can’t last? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/29/job-market-2021/

Edited March 8, 2022 by A64Pilot

[carusoam]

Hey… what da ya know…

Things are increasing in price rapidly lately…

Inflation is just the latest change… essentially the leftover affects of the Covid issue…

Price of fuel increasing is an ongoing problem… that we got a weird brake from… due to Covid…

Do you remember the price of oil going negative?  (Those were THE days)

When it comes to investments… seek professional help… kind of like finding the right CFI….

 

The cool thing about inflation…  buy your plane today… and pay for it over time… like a house…  beat the banks at their own game…  (here now today…)

Keep both eyes open… stuff is in flux all of the time…. If you stop to complain about one thing… you will miss the next thing coming up over the horizon…

Things are always getting tougher… if you don’t look in other directions….

With change… there is always room for profit… even for the new guys…

With stagnation… if you can’t afford something today… what is going to make a difference tomorrow?

Don’t get bogged down…

Work smart…

Work hard…

Invest in your own future….

If you want to scare yourself… get involved with world politics… 

A long time ago… I think I was afraid of the Soviet Union… 

Today… I think I might be afraid of what is going on in what used to be the USSR…. 

Some things are just to big to be afraid of while searching for the right Mooney…

Only worry about the things you can change…  -mom

 

Wait a sec….

Some people are afraid to buy a used plane… because the factory that built it cut production….

There probably isn’t ever going to be a good time to buy an airplane…  just some days are better than others… for some people…

Go Mooney!

Make it happen….

Have you ever got a raise that was meaningful?

Was it broken down into merit and cost of living increases?

Inflation has always been here before, and it has always been balanced by GDP growth… 

Some economists think 6% is a happy medium…

The more you become familiar... the better armed for the future you will be… 

If you remember candy bars for a dime, that turned into candy bars for a quarter, over a short period of time… and you didn’t get an allowance increase… that sucked!  
 

You know what else….

Few will agree on how to measure inflation… or unemployment… or GDP…

Unemployment numbers out this past week were looking really good… people looking for a job are getting them… young kids are getting opportunities in the multiples…

Best advice… Marry a partner that likes working and airplanes….    

PP thoughts only, not a futurist… and my memory of the past isn’t that strong either…

Best regards,

-a-

[philiplane]

Inflation in airplane parts is running more like 20 to 80 percent since January 2021.

Oil is up more than 50%, filters about 20%, Goodyear tires up 30%, lithium ELT batteries up 55%, cylinders up 30%, and that is when you can get them due to shortages.

Superior is nearly 20,000 cylinders behind in production. Lycoming is about the same.

Nothing works anymore. AT any price.

[carusoam]

Capitalism and democracy take time to level things out… best two systems we have…

JIT production makes things affordable…. But that system fell a bit short during Covid…

Computer chip manufacturing has also taken a beating… mostly for JIT issues…

I would hate to be the company or government that ordered a bunch of last years chips for this year’s production… they will be stuck with that aging inventory for a long time… as JIT production isn’t down for long…

Great Depression

Great recession 

Great Resignation

Nothing (good or bad) lasts forever….

Back to Work! - M. Patey  

If thoughts of recession get you depressed… before you resign, watch Mike Patey building airplanes on YouTube….

Find YOUR way!  Because nobody can do it for you… 

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Yetti]

Learn to weld.   Move to Midland, Tx.    Learn to install avionics.  Seems that lots of shops need those skills.