What precipitation type is expected to reach the surface?

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Here's your chance to show your Skew-T acuity.  In this forecast sounding, what precipitation type would be expected to reach the surface based solely on the forecast below?  An explanation is also required with your answer.  

[0TreeLemur]

Freezing rain.  Atm. is saturated up to about the 650 mb level.   If precipitation is produced, it will likely be mostly liquid because the temperature in most of the saturated near-surface layer is 0 to 2C.  A strong temperature inversion exists with surface temperatures near 0C, and -5C at 850 mb (5k ft).  That will supercool  the rain falling through this air that is below 0C, yielding freezing rain at the surface.

<not an atmospheric scientist>

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by 0TreeLemur
spelling

[HXG]

I think a sleet and snow mix would be seen at the surface. Freezing rain is also possible, but, I favor sleet due to a more shallow warm layer above freezing associated with the inversion and a thicker below freezing level just above the surface. I would expect some freezing rain higher around 5000 feet, but would expect it to freeze to possible ice pellets with additional sleet at the surface. Given the prolonged near 0 temperatures in the inversion I would expect some mixed precipitation. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by HXG

[Hank]

This is why I'm so happy to have moved back South!

Around here the next couple days, we're just expecting liquid water to fall in variable inches with locally heavy spots, flash flooding, etc. Durned Zeta!

[carusoam]

Perfect time of the year for cold weather forecasting discussions!

Snow in the North, hurricanes in L.A.  (Lower A)

Thanks Scott!  

Best regards,

-a-

[jlunseth]

23 hours ago, Hank said:

This is why I'm so happy to have moved back South!

Around here the next couple days, we're just expecting liquid water to fall in variable inches with locally heavy spots, flash flooding, etc. Durned Zeta!

Nice, until you get an ice storm.  Up here, what falls in the winter we can plow. Down south, when there is cold precip it likes to stick to everything and you can't move it.

[Hank]

3 hours ago, jlunseth said:

Nice, until you get an ice storm.  Up here, what falls in the winter we can plow. Down south, when there is cold precip it likes to stick to everything and you can't move it.

Yep, we just stay home and hope the power doesn't go out . . . Which was a much more serious issue in Ohio winters than here in Alabama.  

[0TreeLemur]

20 hours ago, Hank said:

Yep, we just stay home and hope the power doesn't go out . . . Which was a much more serious issue in Ohio winters than here in Alabama.  

Agreed.  I'm in my 5th year in AL, and <knock on wood> haven't experienced an ice storm yet.  We've found winters here to be mild and easily tolerable.  The arctic parka I used to wear in my last northern residence has not been worn since moving here .  In fact, should donate it.

[Hank]

39 minutes ago, 0TreeLemur said:

Agreed.  I'm in my 5th year in AL, and <knock on wood> haven't experienced an ice storm yet.  We've found winters here to be mild and easily tolerable.  The arctic parka I used to wear in my last northern residence has not been worn since moving here .  In fact, should donate it.

Sadly, I can rarely wear my nice, heavy, leather G1 flight jacket, which was my winter mainstay for several years in WV for several months each year. Now I'm lucky to wear it a few weeks each winter . . . .

[MooneyMitch]

It never rains in California.......we call it the Golden State..... it’s actually brown from lack of rain..... lol.

74 today here in Dismal Beach ( Pismo Beach) right next to our blue Pacific Ocean.  Clear blue skies too.  Have the top lowered on the car too.

I do love my left coast weather!!  

[Hank]

2 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

It never rains in California.......we call it the Golden State..... it’s actually brown from lack of rain..... lol.

74 today here in Dismal Beach ( Pismo Beach) right next to our blue Pacific Ocean.  Clear blue skies too.  Have the top lowered on the car too.

I do love my left coast weather!!  

I enjoy green too much. With everything brown, I can't tell S. Cali from S. Arabia or the Sahara . . . . .

[MooneyMitch]

We do have green, it’s just seasonal..... LOL 

[jlunseth]

Well, why would it be wet precip such as freezing rain. I see the inversion at 5,000 ft., but the precip has another 4,000 feet to go to reach the ground and even in the inversion the temps are cold enough to form snow. The ground temp is freezing or within 2 degrees. It will be snow or ice pellets. Final answer.