Now is a Great Time to Self Quarantine

[Marauder]

This is an interesting chart from the CDC.  Have we already passed the peak?? 
 

That graph is showing the onset not necessarily the number of actual cases (look at the footnote).

When HCPs talk about the “curve”, they are looking at the confirmed cases. Those are known cases and have nothing to do with mortality.

Here is China’s curve:



I’d say we still have a ways to go to flatten the U.S. curve:



Data is from 9:46 AM EST today.


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[Shadrach]

10 minutes ago, Marauder said:

And for you, it’s a “normal flu” people. You don’t convert ice rinks to morgues in a “normal flu” season.

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1) Who exactly has proposed that this is the normal flu?

2) The absence of a vaccine for “normal flu” could well create a similar situation for the at risk population.

[Shadrach]

Interesting read

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

[Yetti]

4 minutes ago, Marauder said:

 

That graph is showing the onset not necessarily the number of actual cases (look at the footnote).

When HCPs talk about the “curve”, they are looking at the confirmed cases. Those are known cases and have nothing to do with mortality.

Here is China’s curve:



I’d say we still have a ways to go to flatten the U.S. curve:



Data is from 9:46 AM EST today.


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And here is the problem.  The data is from John Hopkins.   They are having a big lag in data.  I contacted them yesterday.  Local news is reporting 20 recovered for Houston Galveston area.  JH is reporting none recovered. 2 more days of bad data from JH and all their charts are meaningless.

[Marauder]

And here is the problem.  The data is from John Hopkins.   They are having a big lag in data.  I contacted them yesterday.  Local news is reporting 20 recovered for Houston Galveston area.  JH is reporting none recovered. 2 more days of bad data from JH and all their charts are meaningless.

 Happen to know a little bit about this. My son is camping out at John Hopkins (may need to rescue him at one point since Amazon food delivery in Baltimore is lagging - big time).

 

If you look at the sources section, you will notice that the typical sources are there WHO, CDC, etc. They also gather information from “other sources” like Twitter, news services releases, etc. When they discover new cases through one of those “other” sources, their practice is validate it through a validated source (local health department, CDC, etc.). So, there may be a lag from a news source and it being reported in the dashboard.

 

Since I live in Delaware with Danb and 12 other people, it is pretty easy to see that the news reports of new cases precede the Hopkin’s dashboard by roughly a day or two.

 

Their mechanism is explained here: https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

 

 

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[N9201A]

Of course they are! It doesn't feed the panic or support their own fears. "We're all gonna get infected and millions are gonna die!" is all that many (even here) can think, support or listen to.

Every science-based thing I’ve seen says while we ALL may not be infected, this thing will be like the common cold in prevalence, so like 40% or more of human beings will get it eventually. That’s science.

What I understand makes this different, though, is the lack of immunity (it’s “novel”), its transmissibility, and its lethality. These factors can be mitigated longer term by immunity (whether survival or vaccine) and, in the near term, preventing the spread.

So no panic, just science. I’m not a scientist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night...no FoxNews tho, maybe that’s my problem.

[Yetti]

@Marauder I know the ESRI tool they are using very well.   They are actually not using all the features.   There are some cool heat map and other things.   Our product interfaces to it for equipment.   We usually have much better data sources as they can be automated.   But the number one request from our customers is data quality.   realize some of our data that our customers deal with is sub-second vibration data.       Several times I have thought about getting a team and spinning up our tools on this effort/    Without the good data sources it puts some pretty question marks on the usefulness.    Like apparently you have to have two clean tests to be "recovered"   I know very few people who are going to wait in line with sick people 2-3 hours each to know they are feeling better when they do.

[Yetti]

3 minutes ago, N9201A said:

Every science-based thing I’ve seen says while we ALL may not be infected, this thing will be like the common cold in prevalence, so like 40% or more of human beings will get it eventually. That’s science.

What I understand makes this different, though, is the lack of immunity (it’s “novel”), its transmissibility, and its lethality. These factors can be mitigated longer term by immunity (whether survival or vaccine) and, in the near term, preventing the spread.

So no panic, just science. I’m not a scientist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night...no FoxNews tho, maybe that’s my problem.

I started my data quest by trying to determine how heat and humid might impact spread.  Some.  You want hot and humid.  and then got into Human cycles melioration rates and such

[N9201A]

The reason China, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are fairing better is they have a disciplined culture. Of course some of that discipline is placed on them. But none the less, they took this situation seriously from the start and reacted accordingly. Taiwan was the role model in this pandemic but Singapore’s DEFCON approach also was solid.
 
China is opening back up for business. I have an employee in Singapore who’s spouse is traveling to China for business. What discipline is applied? Upon arrival in China, they are sequestered, go through a medical screening and if okay, they are handed a barrier suite, mask, gloves and are bussed to a hotel where they are isolated for 2 weeks. After the 2 weeks and they are clean, they can conduct business in China. Upon their return to Singapore they reverse the process.
 

In China, for years it has been the case that every Customs entry point screens every human walking by for body temperature, 100%, no exceptions. Obviously this only detects someone with an elevated temperature, but it’s a start.

Here where, as of late, it’s become fashionable to blame aliens for everything, a friend returning from overseas just passed through KATL, the busiest airport we have. No body scan, no verbal screening, no nothing.

My friend had been in a safe place, a country with better health care than we have, adequate testing, only 4 reported cases, and a disciplined, science-based approach. She is now self-quarantined and cannot believe the risk she was subjected to needlessly by our lack of any measures whatsoever to check thousands of people coming into the US’ busiest airport.

I saw a piece by a doctor who explained that just one infected person could be the root cause of 30,000 infected people before showing any symptoms. How many unknowingly infected people went through KATL that day, or any day?

[N9201A]

I started my data quest by trying to determine how heat and humid might impact spread.  Some.  You want hot and humid.  and then got into Human cycles melioration rates and such

Yes, if this was July we might be in better shape. Never thought I would be cheering for an early summer ....

[Hank]

10 minutes ago, N9201A said:

Yes, if this was July we might be in better shape. Never thought I would be cheering for an early summer ....

It's starting here. S'posed to be pushing 90°F by the weekend.  

[Ibra]

33 minutes ago, N9201A said:

Yes, if this was July we might be in better shape. Never thought I would be cheering for an early summer ....

I really think that would really help, at 122F/50C the bug is dead on all surfaces or liquids in 10min, so hopefully a hot flying/gliding season  !

(when flying the damn bats raise their temperature to 105F/41C so neutralise everything without ever feeling ill, the same way fever "protects" humans but 105F fever )

Edited March 25, 2020 by Ibra

[Hank]

50 minutes ago, Ibra said:

I really think that would really help, at 122F/50C the bug is dead on all surfaces or liquids in 10min, so hopefully a hot flying/gliding season  !

(when flying the damn bats raise their temperature to 105F/41C so neutralise everything without ever feeling ill, the same way fever "protects" humans but 105F fever )

Sounds like a summer afternoon to me.

[Yetti]

1 hour ago, Ibra said:

I really think that would really help, at 122F/50C the bug is dead on all surfaces or liquids in 10min, so hopefully a hot flying/gliding season  !

(when flying the damn bats raise their temperature to 105F/41C so neutralise everything without ever feeling ill, the same way fever "protects" humans but 105F fever )

It is believed to be a combination of heat and humidity that limits the life span  You want both.  Houston is in a good position for both heat and humidity

 

[Yetti]

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log₁₀) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

 

[amillet]

1 minute ago, Yetti said:

It is believed to be a combination of heat and humidity that limits the life span  You want both.  Houston is in a good position for both heat and humidity

 

I’m going to spend more time in the hot tub 

[Yetti]

35 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

So the virus....... with flu you infect 1.3-1.4 people, with covid-19 you infect  3 people before you show symptoms, they then go on to infect 3 further people, etc etc.  This little bastard, and thats my name for it having had it, can be quite mild, but it doesn't always do that, if it doesn't you require Hospital treatment, in most countries thats ok, its free.......you know where im going.....in yours it isnt, so people who have been laid off will no longer have cover,  so if they get this badly will probably die.  You like most countries have a limited number of ventilators and this little bastard causes respiratory distress and failure, so ventilators are the limited resource, provided you have finance of course.  Thats why we have to ALL reduce our exposure to other people so that the amount of ventilators can go around and people can survive.  Sod the economy, we dont actually need it as Russia showed.  It is only our greed that requires us to want an economy.  We could go back to a barter system.  (Mooney owners obviously would still get everything given to them)

 

Now on a more serious note, has anyone thought of 9 months from now....omg the BABIES will popping out everywhere.

Ford is producing ventilators from car A/C seat fans.  Elon Musk is on it also.    even if you are laid off, just paying the COBRA will keep you going for a bit on insurance.   What is not know is of the total a)how many need some care  b)how many will need acute care.

 

[N9201A]

So the virus....... with flu you infect 1.3-1.4 people, with covid-19 you infect  3 people before you show symptoms, they then go on to infect 3 further people, etc etc.  

I saw a video of an English medical expert explaining this quite succinctly. Basically by the time the “original” big has been passed through ten layers, it’s tens of thousands of people infected...from one original person who didn’t know they were carrying. Because there is no immunity - yet - and it’s SO contagious, it’s vastly different than the flu or cold, and comparisons are inapt.

Wish I could find the source video again, it was something like “it’s not only about you, you selfish bastard” or the like.

[flyboy0681]

59 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

So the virus....... with flu you infect 1.3-1.4 people, with covid-19 you infect  3 people before you show symptoms, they then go on to infect 3 further people, etc etc.  This little bastard, and thats my name for it having had it, can be quite mild, but it doesn't always do that, if it doesn't you require Hospital treatment, in most countries thats ok, its free.......you know where im going.....in yours it isnt, so people who have been laid off will no longer have cover,  so if they get this badly will probably die.  You like most countries have a limited number of ventilators and this little bastard causes respiratory distress and failure, so ventilators are the limited resource, provided you have finance of course.  Thats why we have to ALL reduce our exposure to other people so that the amount of ventilators can go around and people can survive.  Sod the economy, we dont actually need it as Russia showed.  It is only our greed that requires us to want an economy.  We could go back to a barter system.  (Mooney owners obviously would still get everything given to them)

 

Now on a more serious note, has anyone thought of 9 months from now....omg the BABIES will popping out everywhere.

Any idea why in the UK you go to hospital and here in the US we go to THE hospital? Same goes for higher learning, you go to university while we go to the university.

Not sure about the baby thing, most people I know are too depressed to do anything, let alone frolic around.

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, flyboy0681 said:

Any idea why in the UK you go to hospital and here in the US we go to THE hospital? Same goes for higher learning, you go to university while we go to the university.

Not sure about the baby thing, most people I know are too depressed to do anything, let alone frolic around.

I don't know.  Maybe you are mostly right but here 15 mi from the Canadian border - both ways sound good to my ear, but maybe that is the influence of the Queen's English on the Canadians leaking across the border.  But I am perfectly happy saying lets go to University just as much as I am happy saying lets go to school.

Edited March 25, 2020 by aviatoreb

[Hank]

25 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

re Hospitals you are correct, you go to The Hospital, I was being lazy.  So you would say have you been to The Hospital, but that is colloquially put as have you been to Hospital.  

Nobody on this side of the Great Divide (except British expats) "goes to hospital." We gonto the doctor, and/or to the hospital. Gotta have that indefinite article before the noun! God bless the Queen's English, you Brits murder it as bad as we do.

England and America, two countries divided by a common language. 

[GeeBee]

2 hours ago, amillet said:

I’m going to spend more time in the hot tub 

Hot tub.....aka MRSA pit. Out of the fire into the frying pan.

 

[GeeBee]

5 hours ago, N9201A said:

 

In China, for years it has been the case that every Customs entry point screens every human walking by for body temperature, 100%, no exceptions. Obviously this only detects someone with an elevated temperature, but it’s a start.

Here where, as of late, it’s become fashionable to blame aliens for everything, a friend returning from overseas just passed through KATL, the busiest airport we have. No body scan, no verbal screening, no nothing.

My friend had been in a safe place, a country with better health care than we have, adequate testing, only 4 reported cases, and a disciplined, science-based approach. She is now self-quarantined and cannot believe the risk she was subjected to needlessly by our lack of any measures whatsoever to check thousands of people coming into the US’ busiest airport.

I saw a piece by a doctor who explained that just one infected person could be the root cause of 30,000 infected people before showing any symptoms. How many unknowingly infected people went through KATL that day, or any day?

 

KATL has mass scanning. There are cameras. in the arrivals area as you arrive. The image is computer analyzed and some one  sits at a screen behind closed doors. If you are detected someone comes and gets you. 

 

[N9201A]

Are this simple.  We would go to The University of Sussex for example, but would go to Oxford University, the same as you would not go to The Buckingham Palace, just Buckingham Palace.  Ie it has to be THE university of somewhere, not The University.  
 
re Hospitals you are correct, you go to The Hospital, I was being lazy.  So you would say have you been to The Hospital, but that is colloquially put as have you been to Hospital.  

I have always thought “on holiday” sounds much better than “on vacation.”

The first time I heard a guy on the Tube tell a girl “I’ll come ‘round and knock you up” I was a little taken aback tho.

[aviatoreb]

Let's get serious.

Do we say, "Let's go to pub."  Or do we say, "Let's go to the pub."