To IFR or Not IFR - that is the question.

[DonMuncy]

1 minute ago, kortopates said:

But I am sure we all know scores of pilots that got their Instrument rating years ago and am not current and can only get it back legally with an IPC yet never do year after year. For these people, even after getting it, its clearly not worth the hassle to them to maintain it. They have other flying interest that keep them motivated without the need to go anywhere IFR. Just IMO though, these are the same folks that are more likely to push it VFR into IMC though. They have a trip and need to get somewhere and either push it scud running and even pushing through layers illegally neither talking to anyone. Maybe as an instructor I suspect I probably hear more confessions and more unapproving pilots telling on their friends. But I personally think the number of instrument rated pilots that have not been current in over a year is a very sizable group.  

Good point Paul. It would be interesting to study this group of pilots. I wonder if the odds of living over an encounter with IMC by a non current (but instrument trained) pilot is greater than such an encounter by a VFR only pilot. Then compare that to the risk of an instrument rated (but not current or proficient) pilot's willingness to push into IFR conditions. Naturally, no one will ever know those statistics, but they are well worth our consideration and discussion.

[ArtVandelay]

My view of it is that it is not that hard - I don't mean getting the instrument rating, that is difficult - but flying in IMC.

If you have some turbulence, the difficulty can quickly rise, takes effort just to do the buttonlogy.

[201er]

2 minutes ago, DonMuncy said:

Good point Paul. It would be interesting to study this group of pilots. I wonder if the odds of living over an encounter with IMC by a non current (but instrument trained) pilot is greater than such an encounter by a VFR only pilot. Then compare that to the risk of an instrument rated (but not current or proficient) pilot's willingness to push into IFR conditions. Naturally, no one will ever know those statistics, but they are well worth our consideration and discussion.

Unfortunately it's 50/50. The number isn't adjusted for number of ratings, currency, etc. 2015 nall report says that 56% of VFR into IMC accidents had an "IFR pilot on board." Still, there were 17 fatal accidents of VFR into IMC by non instrument rated pilots. How big of a role currency plays is not analyzed by the data in this report at all. For all we know, every single IFR on board pilot was not current or was. I do agree that a study that splits the role of currency off from IFR on board or not may be enlightening. I will recommend it.

https://www.aopa.org/-/media/files/aopa/home/training-and-safety/nall-report/25thnallreport.pdf

[DonMuncy]

Actually, in my opinion, flying in IMC is quite easy. As long as you only need to fly straight an level, of make ordinary course changes. There is that momentary panic-like feeling when entering IMC. But even that is not too bad. The only really rough part is trying to get to the ground somewhere around the airport. If there were never ceilings below 1200 AGL, I think we could get pilots instrument rated in very few hours.

[Cruiser]

On 1/19/2017 at 1:16 PM, midlifeflyer said:

You remind me of a time I let my currency lapse. We were out vising in Kansas and returning to Colorado. It was one of those May-June periods when we get flyable clouds. The weather was VFR but marginal (especially for a pilot in Colorado) and remaining VFR meant flying lower than I like while keeping required lateral distance from scattered clouds.

It became an object lesson for me in maintaining currency. It was a nail-biter for me as a VFR flight. It would have been an ridiculously easy IFR flight. Using Flight Following, I heard a plane from my home airport taking advantage of the weather for an instrument's student's dual cross country. I was very jealous.

This is an excellent description of why you should get the IFR endorsement. Scud running is extremely dangerous. I would have preferred to hear, "so we decided to stay another day or two........" as the OP claims he does.

[jlunseth]

46 minutes ago, teejayevans said:

If you have some turbulence, the difficulty can quickly rise, takes effort just to do the buttonlogy.

I completely agree. One of the things you don't learn in training, but find out on your own.  I have been in turbulence in IMC so bad it was difficult to control the aircraft let alone hit the buttons, and I was getting large altitude excursions.  There are alot of things they don't teach.  "Lost comm" for example.  What they should teach is "recovering comm.". There are a ton of ways to get back in touch with ATC, including your cell phone if you are at approach altitude.  And now that we can all make a bluetooth connection with our cell phone to our headset, even that is way easier.   Another one is reporting points as opposed to negotiating with ATC.  I remember spending alot of time on making reports at each mandatory reporting point.  But in all the hours I have flying IFR, I can remember sort of having to make reports only two or three times, and they don't want you ever to be reporting on a regular basis, they want to give you one reporting point, you make your report and then don't clutter up the channel.

 

[bradp]

I'll post a picture of my flight this weekend - but the last leg got some decreasing ceilings and very quickly was in the middle of a snow squall that started from above. No Instrument rating could have been very dicey in that situation. For me it was a quick and easy changeover to instruments and an uneventful landing. IFR is another tool that is useful if you are trying not to die flying cross country trips. Otherwise the plus minus 5 days is an ok way to go. At least get sufficient training to be totally proficient by sole reference to instruments if you decide not to pursue the rating. My motivation for the rating was a trip I took from VA to NJ and got stuck for about a week waiting out ceilings.

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[Cyril Gibb]

1 hour ago, bradp said:

 My motivation for the rating was a trip I took from VA to NJ and got stuck for about a week waiting out ceiling.

+1

For me, I had the same frustration spending time and $$$$$ waiting for VFR on many of our trips.  It's absolutely true that if you have time to spare, you can be "safe" by waiting, but it's annoying to get stuck in some podunk town with nothing to see or do.  The final straw was scud running back from Florida 2 years ago.  That was NOT safe.  Now that we're traveling even more, the rating adds safety, flexibility and within reason, scheduling.  This month, our return trip to Florida included 3 approaches to 300/400/250 feet respectively.  Each one of those would have been a delay of at least 2 days based on the systems moving through.  I probably saved at least 1 AMU.  YMMV

[201er]

There's still plenty of sit and wait, even with IFR capability. Icing, tstorms, fog, storms, and just things breaking. However, of all the common things that cause you to sit and wait, perfectly simple IFR weather is probably the number one cause.

[midlifeflyer]

4 hours ago, Cruiser said:

This is an excellent description of why you should get the IFR endorsement. Scud running is extremely dangerous. I would have preferred to hear, "so we decided to stay another day or two........" as the OP claims he does.

Excellent description is why I wrote it. But I wasn't scud running.

In your part of the country, it would have been considered good VFR. it was "marginal" to me as a Colorado pilot used to clear below 60,000' and 100 miles visibility. 

[midlifeflyer]

5 hours ago, 201er said:

Unfortunately it's 50/50. The number isn't adjusted for number of ratings, currency, etc. 2015 nall report says that 56% of VFR into IMC accidents had an "IFR pilot on board." Still, there were 17 fatal accidents of VFR into IMC by non instrument rated pilots. How big of a role currency plays is not analyzed by the data in this report at all. For all we know, every single IFR on board pilot was not current or was. I do agree that a study that splits the role of currency off from IFR on board or not may be enlightening. I will recommend it.

https://www.aopa.org/-/media/files/aopa/home/training-and-safety/nall-report/25thnallreport.pdf

The psychology of a current instrument pilot who flies VFR into IMC would be interesting itself. I'll speculate a bit that it's a matter of confidence or failure to think ahead. In either case, he's just not prepared. 

I think of the small number of times I've flown VFR  when I encountered  conditions that began to deteriorate. A simple pop up was all it took. And in all those cases, the IFR was easy.

[bonal]

I guess it's a matter of experience skill and ability. I'm VFR so I stay out of weather. I truly hope all you IFR pilots don't get to full of yourselves  and lose respect for the risks you are trained to and willing to take on.  By way of comparison I have been riding high performance motorcycles all my life including a number of years on track. When conditions worsen because of weather the risk of riding goes up even though I have a ton of experience and riding a bike is a pretty simple task when compared to aviation. Please be careful out there I have read and heard too many cases where IFR pilots get themselves killed due to weather that I would be safely waiting for a better day to fly. 

God bless 

[midlifeflyer]

6 hours ago, bonal said:

I guess it's a matter of experience skill and ability. I'm VFR so I stay out of weather. I truly hope all you IFR pilots don't get to full of yourselves  and lose respect for the risks you are trained to and willing to take on.  By way of comparison I have been riding high performance motorcycles all my life including a number of years on track. When conditions worsen because of weather the risk of riding goes up even though I have a ton of experience and riding a bike is a pretty simple task when compared to aviation. Please be careful out there I have read and heard too many cases where IFR pilots get themselves killed due to weather that I would be safely waiting for a better day to fly. 

God bless 

While I can really only speak for myself, I can honestly say I have not seen even one post in this thread that even remotely suggests that. You must be picturing scenarios far different than those that I've seen discussed here.

There is weather that should definitely keep an IFR pilot on the ground or lead to a diversion. There are some universals but there is a huge variation among pilots with respect to personal minimums (both IFR and VFR).

But weather that should keep a VFR pilot on the ground is, more often than not, pretty benign from an IFR standpoint. Simpler and safer than riding a motorcycle in the rain.

[jlunseth]

One of the things I think you learn more about as an IFR pilot is weather.  You had better, there are conditions that are deadly, just as there are for VFR only pilots.  A major safety upgrade in the last decade, IMHO, is the availability of SatWX on a panel display.  ADSB weather is second best, but will work in a pinch.  The biggest difference between the two is range.  With ADSB you can only get the 100 mile "puck" weather, whereas with SatWX I can look as far ahead as I want to, which allows, on a long trip, seeing what is transpiring at your destination of intended landing.  I have, on a couple occasions, slowed down or sped up to avoid weather at the destination that is dissapating slower than expected, or building faster.  It is a real life saver and allows the pilot to see and circumnavigate the bad stuff, whether that means under, over, or around.

There is quite alot about weather you learn from experience.  One needs to be willing to be a constant student of weather to fly IFR, but then, that is part of the fun of it.

Edited February 1, 2017 by jlunseth

[Ftlausa]

Instrument trained pilots have learned more precise control of the aircraft and better situational awareness of aircraft instrumentation.  Full stop.  Instrument trained pilots have learned how to survive flight into IMC.  Full stop.  Instrument trained pilots can get to the ground safely if the weather unexpectedly deteriorates.  Full stop.

All of those skills increase the safety of flight for you and your passengers.  My and my family's safety were worth every hour and every dollar I spent on the instrument rating.  Full stop.   

[bonal]

No need to get defensive I'm just stirring the pot because I like the discussion and only saying bad weather doesn't care what rating you have and we were ALL taught  about the mental attitudes that some of us can have that can make us think it can't happen to me. Just seeing comments that kind of have a little invulnerability in them.

[Marauder]

No need to get defensive I'm just stirring the pot because I like the discussion and only saying bad weather doesn't care what rating you have and we were ALL taught  about the mental attitudes that some of us can have that can make us think it can't happen to me. Just seeing comments that kind of have a little invulnerability in them.

You mean weather like this? "The forecast said the tops were 7000'!"

Or this one. What are the odds that tower of rain is over my airport?

Or this one? "Anyone see an airport around here?" I wish Hola Girl would help look for the airport!

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[bradp]

Anyone see an airport around here?" I wish Hola Girl would help look for the airport!

Is she Spanish speaking now?


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[Marauder]

Anyone see an airport around here?" I wish Hola Girl would help look for the airport!

Is she Spanish speaking now?


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Hard to say. She refuses to wear a headset and being a person of short stature it is hard to hear what she is saying, even if she screams it.

I will say that since my plane starting vibrating a bit more, she is back to being a Hula Girl.


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[eman1200]

9 hours ago, midlifeflyer said:

....Simpler and safer than riding a motorcycle in the rain.

billy joel even rode his motorcycle in the rain......

[thinwing]

On 2/1/2017 at 7:01 AM, Marauder said:

 

Hard to say. She refuses to wear a headset and being a person of short stature it is hard to hear what she is saying, even if she screams it.

I will say that since my plane starting vibrating a bit more, she is back to being a Hula Girl.


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That's a Hawaii iced prop detector!

[thinwing]

On 2/1/2017 at 6:45 AM, bradp said:

Anyone see an airport around here?" I wish Hola Girl would help look for the airport!

Is she Spanish speaking now?


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Maybe she is Georgetown grad!

[gsengle]

billy joel even rode his motorcycle in the rain......

And Prince through the Purple Rain...


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[kmyfm20s]

Last weekend I flew back from KSMO to KMYF in IMC almost the entire flight. Not a very long flight but rewarding to put my skills to work! I attached a couple of photos that would be a more common use of my IR, getting on top of the marine layer. Hopefully they show up in the correct orientation.

[Marauder]

 

 

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