RobertE Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 Well, I'll take a shot at the reason for failure. It's the same reason pretty much all the GA manufacturers lacking a jet product line went bust at one time or the other - GA aircraft are competing in a really horrible environment in which the regulatory cost associated with innovation is absurdly high, which discourages innovation, which produces no good reason to buy new vs used, which reduces the unit sales of new to such a level that selling prices sufficient to recover costs have to be terribly high, which reduces further unit sales, which raises the needed price still higher,.... It's the opposite of a "virtuous cycle". It's a death spiral. I've got a 1981 J model that has pretty much all the functionality available in a new aircraft (were they making new Js) except a flat panel. What would I be willing to pay for new? Well, if I had the money lying around maybe twice the $110K I paid for used. 2X seems about right for the peace of mind that comes with knowing that every attach point, every nut & bolt, every wire is new and unchaffed. But were Mooney to go back to making new Js I'm guessing they would need to charge $500K or $550K (based on $650K for an Ovation). There simply is no management group on the planet smart enough to sell lots of new aircraft at 5X the price commanded for nearly similar aircraft in the used market. Only an entirely new market - China - for an entirely new aircraft (the M10s) would provide any hope, in my opinion. I really, really hope it works out for them but it's not an easy bet, in my opinion. My bet is that metal aircraft will be built forever in Kerrville, plastic aircraft will be designed in Kerrville but built in China, now and forever. You want to design aircraft where all the vendors and their technology are a phone call and quick visit away. That's the US. You want to build it in an area of the world where some advantage - and that advantage is labor and composite material costs in China - gives you some shot at beating Cirrus, At least that's how I see it. Quote
flyboy0681 Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 Take a look at two documentaries: 1) "How the west was lost" by Dambisa Moyo and 2) "Dreamliner - Broken Dream" by Al Jazeera perhaps they might shed some light? I watched the Al Jazeera program about the 787 and all I can say is - what a piece of sht. The producers clearly had some kind of agenda. For those that hadn't had the pleasure of seeing it, the program calls into question the safety of the entire composite airframe simply because the sections are manufactured all over the world and assembled by Boeing. It goes further by pointing to the non-union workers in the Charleston plant and portray them as drunks and drug users who can't be trusted with a wrench (hidden camera talk turns to some of the employees saying they would never, ever fly on a 787). It was the worst hatchet jobs I've ever seen. It was almost comical. They also covered the battery issue and you could imagine how that went. Never mind that the plane has flown millions of miles since it entered service without an incident due to a deficiency in the airframe. 2 Quote
Aerodon Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 Good luck to whoever builds and buys new Mooneys (no sarcasm or disrespect). To me the issue is pretty basic: 1) A Mooney takes 4000 man-hours to build, a Cirrus is down to less than 1500 now. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, with these numbers. 2) Both have similar size engines and avionics (similar cost). 3) In the overall scheme of things both have similar performance, don't try correct me here. 10 or 20kts or 2-300 lbs don't fundamentally change buyers or passengers decisions. 4) Both have sold enough to amortize the development cost, but I'd give the advantage to Mooney? I don't have a good manufacturing labor number for the US, but I suspect $50-100/hr for an all in number is not unreasonable. So a Mooney is going to cost $200,000 to $400,000 in labour alone, $125,000 to $250,000 more to build than a Cirrus in the USA. Is the customer prepared to pay that much more, or is the manufacturer going to be prepared to earn that much less on a sale? And the Mooney is on the factory floor for 3 months, vs 1 month for a Cirrus. If you are trying to build 200 planes a year, that is a lot of floorspace (and cost) you need. My guess is that any USA investor that looked at Mooney came to this conclusion pretty quickly. A foreign investor that has a fundamentally different cost structure on labour and floorspace, has a chance to build the same plane at a fundamentally different price. I would not be surprised if that 4000 man-hours cost $40,000. Enough to make sure every Mooney built will cost way less to build than a new Cirrus, especially if the end user is in China. Then where would you sell them. The order for 17 is probably going to a local flying school, they must be trying hard to stop sending students to every other country in the world. The Asian airlines appetite for new planes and therefore pilots is enormous. Don't be surprised if that order morphs into 200 local sales. And they are going to buy Mooney rather than Cirrus just as quickly as the US airlines buy Boieng vs. Airbus (or other). All countries have national pride. Seems to me that it's the start of a valid business plan. Do they care about all the 'legacy' Mooneys. Probably not, look how much Garmin care about 10 year old products, they can't wait to dump support without getting sued by someone or other. Do you care about US sales, probably not. Is there room for Mooney, Cirrus, Beech and Piper to crank out 1000 new planes a year? The market is unfair, it tends to exclude the weakest player rather than trim each company's share. So I do think there is a new Mooney rising from the ashes, but I don't think its one that people on this website will like. I wish them well in their business venture, they pulled out their wallet when others wouldn't. I wish them well in quality control, if they get that right, the world is their market. Aerodon. 3 Quote
Marauder Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 http://www.flyingmag.com/aircraft/pistons/first-mooney-acclaim-type-s-rolls-production-line-china?cmpid=enews010615&spPodID=030&spMailingID=21934255&spUserID=NTM5MzYyNTQ5NTIS1&spJobID=480728816&spReportId=NDgwNzI4ODE2S0 Quote
jrwilson Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 I watched the Al Jazeera program about the 787 and all I can say is - what a piece of sht. The producers clearly had some kind of agenda. For those that hadn't had the pleasure of seeing it, the program calls into question the safety of the entire composite airframe simply because the sections are manufactured all over the world and assembled by Boeing. It goes further by pointing to the non-union workers in the Charleston plant and portray them as drunks and drug users who can't be trusted with a wrench (hidden camera talk turns to some of the employees saying they would never, ever fly on a 787). It was the worst hatchet jobs I've ever seen. It was almost comical. They also covered the battery issue and you could imagine how that went. Never mind that the plane has flown millions of miles since it entered service without an incident due to a deficiency in the airframe. Well look at the title of the Al Jazeera show..."Broken Dreams..." That is some questionable journalism in the title alone and would indicate a pretty strong bias. Quote
TabulaRasa Posted January 7, 2015 Report Posted January 7, 2015 When I was at Oshkosh I touched, looked at, and sat in the first new built M20TN. I was a little disappointed that the pilot's window outside surface did not close straight and flush with the rest of the window. It looked like it would need a little extra shimming to be perfect. Is that Kerrville quality? Quote
DaV8or Posted January 7, 2015 Report Posted January 7, 2015 But were Mooney to go back to making new Js I'm guessing they would need to charge $500K or $550K (based on $650K for an Ovation). It's worse than that. The only real difference between an Ovation and a 201 is the engine, prop and maybe a hundred pounds of aluminum and fiberglass. The cost differential is likely well under $50,000. Quote
Tommy Posted January 7, 2015 Author Report Posted January 7, 2015 So to sum it up 1) Mooney USA is no longer a viable business because of various reasons - high cost, lack of innovations, plnety of regulations, overall economy, political, cultural, the list goes on... 2) Mooney Int'l (China) is currently experimenting with few strategies - M10s and built them in China. But 1) price remains uncompetitive (perhaps reflects the fact the new TNs are still built in Kerrville 2) no mentioning of vintage support. Let's just hope that they can make it work (it seems like if they can't, no one else can...) without compromising the quality and the reputation / goodwill of Mooney. Quote
scottfromiowa Posted January 7, 2015 Report Posted January 7, 2015 So to sum it up 1) Mooney USA is no longer a viable business because of various reasons - high cost, lack of innovations, plnety of regulations, overall economy, political, cultural, the list goes on...MOONEY INTERNATIONAL INCLUDES THE USA IN ITS CURRENT ITERATION. IN THE USA MOONEY IS CURRENTLY VIABLE AS THEY HAVE OPERATIONS IN KERRVILLE AND THE NETWORK FOR PARTS THROUGH MOONEY SERVICE CENTERS IS FUNCTIONING IN ADDITION TO SPARE PARTS ON LINE FROM SALVAGE ETC... 2) Mooney Int'l (China) is currently experimenting with few strategies - M10s and built them in China. THEY HAVE A BEYOND DESIGN CONCEPT TWO SEAT TRAINER AND A THREE PLACE CARBON AIRFRAME WITH DIESEL POWER. A 21ST CENTURY BIRD WITH 201 PERFORMANCE. THEY ALSO HAVE AN ALL METAL FUNCTIONING AIRCRAFT THAT WILL BE MADE TO ORDER WITH A LOW PRODUCTION/SALE EXPECTATION IN THEIR MODEL AS THEY "GEAR UP" WITH CARBON AIRFRAMES. But 1) price remains uncompetitive (perhaps reflects the fact the new TNs are still built in Kerrville MAYBE NOT IN CHINA 2) no mentioning of vintage support. BECAUSE THAT IS NOT THEIR EMPHASIS. MOONEY INTERNATIONAL WILL SUPPORT THEIR MANUFACTURED AIRFRAMES AND THEIR NEW AIRFRAME WITH HIGH PRICED PARTS FOR VINTAGE AVAILABLE...BUT WHY WHEN THE SALVAGE AND LASER ARE THERE? Let's just hope that they can make it work (it seems like if they can't, no one else can...) without compromising the quality and the reputation / goodwill of Mooney. BY YOUR PREVIOUS COMMENTS I CAN TELL YOU ARE REALLY IN THEIR COURT CHEERING THEM ON TO SUCCESS. TOKEN... WE SHALL SEE. Quote
Tommy Posted January 7, 2015 Author Report Posted January 7, 2015 Because I am capable of changing my opinions and moderating my thoughts based on new information and other's valid arguments.. That's why I come to this forum for.... It is, after all, quite telling to hear from Americans to say that, for one reasons or the other, an American business is no longer viable in America. Quote
flyboy0681 Posted January 7, 2015 Report Posted January 7, 2015 Because I am capable of changing my opinions and moderating my thoughts based on new information and other's valid arguments.. That's why I come to this forum for.... It is, after all, quite telling to hear from Americans to say that, for one reasons or the other, an American business is no longer viable in America. In the US you are known to have "evolved". This is commendable because "regressives" never change their view even when faced with irrefutable evidence. Quote
scottfromiowa Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 In the US you are known to have "evolved". This is commendable because "regressives" never change their view even when faced with irrefutable evidence. Wow, what a statement. Peas in a pod. But I regress... Quote
scottfromiowa Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 Because I am capable of changing my opinions and moderating my thoughts based on new information and other's valid arguments.. That's why I come to this forum for.... It is, after all, quite telling to hear from Americans to say that, for one reasons or the other, an American business is no longer viable in America. Oh, my mistake. I thought you came to make doom and gloom predications about Mooney International... Quote
flyboy0681 Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 Wow, what a statement. Peas in a pod. But I regress... Here is a typical example of how regressives want to set the clock back in time, to a period when bankers could speculate to their hearts content and plunge the economy into turmoil. I guess they didn't get the September 2008 memo. http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-republican-push-to-roll-back-wall-street-regulations-fails-1420670814 Quote
par Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 Saw this flash across my Facebook feed today: http://www.australianflying.com.au/news/mooney-rolls-out-first-chinese-acclaim "Mooney International is owned by Chinese real estate firm Meijing Group, and is targeting the local market for export sales from the Texas plant. According to Vice President of Sales Peter Claeys, the company sees China as a growth market. “There is certainly a large potential market for high performance personal and training aircraft in the world’s most populous country," he said, "and our Chinese office, known as Mooney Beijing, can now offer world class flight operations for a wide range of Chinese customers including small to medium size companies.” Quote
RobertE Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 Because I am capable of changing my opinions and moderating my thoughts based on new information and other's valid arguments.. That's why I come to this forum for.... It is, after all, quite telling to hear from Americans to say that, for one reasons or the other, an American business is no longer viable in America. Well, I'm certainly not suggesting that an American business isn't viable in America - just that America has its comparative advantages as do other countries. Our advantage is infrastructure that gives us an advantage in lots and lots of areas but not anything that requires really large inputs of unskilled or semi- skilled labor and China's is advantages are labor and certain other inputs. I wouldn't want to trade places with any other country but that doesn't mean we win in every dimension. Quote
scottfromiowa Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 You mean like an assemblyline at Government Motors? Quote
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