What if...

[cbarry]

What if Mooney built an Executive Ultra (or an advanced J)... Although as Mooney innovates to maintain superiority over other brands, I often hear pilots say the J was the best Mooney ever built.  Are these pilots just remonissing about a time when GA was in its prime and the J’s introduction was a perfect coincidence?  Rather, is the J the best balance of the variables we focus on (fuel burn, useful load, range, speed, comfort, stability, acquisition, holding costs...) and anything before the J is lacking in at least one area and anything after the J is also lacking in at least one area?   What triggers my thought about Mooney recreating the J is this:  in a fairly decently growing economy with relatively low interest rates and fuel prices..., the new (albeit awesome) Ultras (which need to remain in production)  are just not moving at a pace that I believe is healthy enough for the company.  Obviously, competition is vibrant in many forms (the chute-strapped planes, the LSAs, the old standbys...). I wonder however, if the time is right to come to market with an technologically advanced new Executive version J at a price point that’s just a little north of the new C182 (say $490,000-$535,000).  I realize the M10 was thought to be similar to this idea, but in my opinion, it deviates too far the traditional Mooney and makes a effort to simulate non Mooney designs.  I also believe the new Ultras, as with most other comparable planes, have reached a price point that severely restricts the market.  Some may say that bringing a new J back online for basically a private company would be cost prohibitive and the final price differential from the Ultras would be marginal.  Others may say Mooney also tried this with the Eagle and Eagle 2–which is what I fly and I believe it to be a fine bird, but in a “I want more world”, the Ovation, Bravo, Encore, Acclaim, Ultras... models came on line to continue the competitive advantage—but at the risk of declining sales...Also, I realize that innovative companies very rarely humble themselves and  go back to a previously out of production design.  To the market, they believe this is akin to back sliding.  However, in a newly manufactured J (give it a new name like Executive Ultra) was configured to today’s technological standards, it may be very attractive to a wider range of the market.  

This is a topic that I know has been reviewed many times, but it’s just something I wanted  to share and get others thoughts on.

 

[Cruiser]

It is a tough decision.

I might point out that you are viewing the need from the wrong side of the track. I think your question is what gets someone to buy a Mooney and what can they buy as they grow. 

The first plane I owned was my trainer, the one I learned to fly in. I stayed with it through my IR 

I tried renting but that didn't work, then a couple of non equity partnerships that were ok. 

Finally when the time came I bought a Mooney M20J. I admit it is the sweet spot in the line and it would be nice to have a plane to step up to that is lacking in the Mooney line now. The question is...... can it be built for the right price?

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

Anybody willing to pay $500,000 for a plane probably does not care too much about the added efficiency of the J; better to get more speed for a little more operating cost.  Just look at the competition, i.e. Cessna 400, Cirrus, ...  Plus, when considering a new plane, is $500,000 really that much less than $769,000?  50% of a large number is sizable, but the underlying number is sooo large to begin with.  Unless you can get the price down substantially, I think it is a lost cause.

[MIm20c]

Even if you flew a ton the fuel savings might be $1500 a year.  The J is the sweet spot for under 100k planes.  Nobody is going to buy a 500k J. 

Economics of scale is the problem with aircraft. That is why many manufacturers try to keep everything the same between models besides outsourced parts. 

I actually really like the striped down sr20. For around 400 it is a decent deal but the have a hard time selling. 

[steingar]

Yeah, I don’t think you could build a J today at a price point where it’s efficiency matters at all. The fuel burn of a new airplane has to be a minority cost.

[gsxrpilot]

This topic has come up many times. And interestingly enough, according to Mooney, the difference in cost to build a modern J vs the current Ovation Ultra, would be much less than $100K. And so given the difference in cost, it's unlikely that anyone who can afford that number would opt to save a few bucks and get the smaller J over the Ovation.

 

[INA201]

7 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

This topic has come up many times. And interestingly enough, according to Mooney, the difference in cost to build a modern J vs the current Ovation Ultra, would be much less than $100K. And so given the difference in cost, it's unlikely that anyone who can afford that number would opt to save a few bucks and get the smaller J over the Ovation.

 

I agree. It would be nice to have a Mooney pipeline where there is a solid used market for planes post 1982ish era.  Mooney needs to sell more planes. Does anyone really know how many they are currently delivering?

[Danb]

Some companies totally refurbish planes to new but modern standards, if there was a strong market for midsized and midpriced planes one would think there would be availability. 

Aquire a run out Mooney, totally strip, IRAN everything on the plane, new paint, interior, engine new panel similar to Chris's or Kay's. What would the end cost be?

[Browncbr1]

Could be possible if they produced a new J design in kit form.   Think experimental J with diesel.

[carusoam]

Comparing empty weights...

J 1671 Lbs.

R 2397 Lbs.

Roughly a 700Lb difference of steel and aluminum.

At current prices the raw material cost is less than 1 AMU.

The power plant cost may be 50% higher, throw on 15amu to be safe.

Instruments can be maxed out, or contained, in either ship. Same for both.

Navcoms, maxed or  minned... Same for both.

Paint, mostly the cost of prep and application. 1 amu for more surface area.

Inerior, both are four seats, add something for the extra surface area of plastic sheet and rug... 1 amu.

 

The Eagle did an admirable job at lowering the cost of the extras...  didn't do much for lowering the cost of the plane.

 

So...If you are going to buy a 700amu plane do you want one with all the fixen's?

Or none of the fixens for 500amu?

You get a lot of fixen's for 100amu.

 

Buy the used O for 200 amu... load in 100amu of new fixen’s and paint...refresh the interior...  

A 300amu, better than new, plane is born!

 

or buy the used J for 100 amu and do the same...

 

Fun with math... from a PP's point of view...

Best regards,

-a-

[carusoam]

Kit...

Simplified pieces for self assembly to be completed in under 2000 hours?

Or 1000?

That one piece wing is going to be nice!

The Mooney Factory has built a fair amount of experience in composites over the years...

Best regards,

-a-

[cbarry]

Here’s the production data from the last five years of the J:  

1994:  J. 34 built $208,000; TLS, 19. $340,000;  Ovation  21. $205,000

1995:  J 19,  $211,000; TLS, 15, $297,000; Ovation  54, $290,000

1996:  J. 20, $245,000;  TLS 12, $395,000; Ovation. 20, $332,000

1997:  J. 19, $276,000;  TLS 20, $446,000;  Ovation, 36,  $368,000

1998:  J. 19, $286,000;  TLS 17,  $436,000; Ovation, 41, $378,000

I believe this shows that when choices are available, the marketability of a company’s entire product line is solid in solid economic conditions.  Remember the economy was in pretty good shape from 1994-1998 just as it is today.  When choices are limited to the top end of the product line only, a company is ignoring the true market demand and is not prepared for difficult times that might be ahead.

 

[Bennett]

You don’t need to buy a new J. There are many decent airframes in the fleet. I won’t go over all the details (see the achieves on MS), but I bought a fairly well maintained 1983 J, which I brought up to LASAR, with instructions to essentially replace all the wear parts, and make sure the airframe was as close to “remanufactured” as possible. The airplane was at LASAR for several months, and the airframe was as good as new. I then flew the airplane to

ArtCraft in Santa Maria for a complete strip and paint in 5 colors, airbrushed stripes, etc. to their highest standards. Then off to Executive Aircraft Maintenance in Scottsdale for a complete new panel with Garmin “everything”, plus backups and multiple redundancies. Next I flew the airplane to Tim at Pine Mountain Lake (Aircraft Designs) who stripped out the old interior and using Aircraft honeycomb, Kevlar, carbon fiber, and leather, built an interior that matched my SL500. The airplane was featured in AvWeb and other publications. The point here is that it was all done for about $225,000, (including a Top Overhaul of a mid time engine), and from a functional basis, I ended up with a better than new Mooney J at a fraction of the cost that it would cost to build, let alone sell, a new J. Some of the work done was a bit “over the top”, and a similar refurbishment could be accomplished for less. No, I don’t expect to get my money back when I sell her (in the too distant future - I’m 83 this year), but I am sure that she will sell easily to someone who appreciates the J model.

 

 

 

 

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[Jerry 5TJ]

We’re just lucky Mooney built so many planes before 1980.  The remnants of that large fleet provided many or most of us a discounted route to 150 knot airplanes.  

 

[carusoam]

Bennet,

I really enjoy your experienced input! 

Speaking/typing of experience,  Have you seen the other thread (this week) regarding economics, flying, and retirement?

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Bob_Belville]

25 minutes ago, Bennett said:

You don’t need to buy a new J. There are many decent airframes in the fleet. I won’t go over all the details (see the achieves on MS), but I bought a fairly well maintained 1983 J, which I brought up to LASAR, with instructions to essentially replace all the wear parts, and make sure the airframe was as close to “remanufactured” as possible. The airplane was at LASAR for several months, and the airframe was as good as new. I then flew the airplane to

ArtCraft in Santa Maria for a complete strip and paint in 5 colors, airbrushed stripes, etc. to their highest standards. Then off to Executive Aircraft Maintenance in Scottsdale for a complete new panel with Garmin “everything”, plus backups and multiple redundancies. Next I flew the airplane to Tim at Pine Mountain Lake (Aircraft Designs) who stripped out the old interior and using Aircraft honeycomb, Kevlar, carbon fiber, and leather, built an interior that matched my SL500. The airplane was featured in AvWeb and other publications. The point here is that it was all done for about $225,000, (including a Top Overhaul of a mid time engine), and from a functional basis, I ended up with a better than new Mooney J at a fraction of the cost that it would cost to build, let alone sell, a new J. Some of the work done was a bit “over the top”, and a similar refurbishment could be accomplished for less. No, I don’t expect to get my money back when I sell her (in the too distant future - I’m 83 this year), but I am sure that she will sell easily to someone who appreciates the J model.

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Folks commenting on this thread need to read Bibel's post a couple of times. As he says, he will not get his money out of his creation. But, by comparison, does anyone anywhere suppose that a brand new plane will not depreciate? I suppose that Bibel will get a premium price and that his net cost for years of pleasure will compare nicely to most other planes that were nowhere near as nice. I suppose that his mx costs for the past 7 years have been minimal, after all he started with a "new" plane. Even if he had to quit flying tomorrow and he sold the plane for $150,000 (the line would be around the block, I suppose) that would only be $10,000 per year of depreciation. What do you suppose a new $700,000 O3 will go for in 7 years?

ISTM, this is a very practical solution for many of us. (If I had to sell my M20E after 7 years of ownership which would be 12 months from now, I would expect a proportionate outcome. (I started with an older, cheaper M20E and I probably have almost $100,000 less in mine than he does.)  

[carusoam]

^^^ Looks like Siri respelled Bennett's name...  

-a-

[Wayne Cease]

I'm wondering if there's a market for "better than new" J and pre-J models if they get added to the Dynon SkyView STC.  Take an C/E/F rip out all of the avionics and replace with SkyView and 650 or 440.  Then put on a sloped windshield and new aero cowl and paint.  Probably new interior too.  They would put most of the current J's to shame, plus the E/F models should keep up with the J's speed-wise.  Yeah, it wouldn't be a $45k plane anymore, but it would also be worth a lot more.  You'd have a glass panel with engine monitoring, high-end AP, ADS-B in/out and J speeds with more useful load.

Not the cheapest way to go, but it's gotta be cheaper than a factory brand new J.

 

[carusoam]

Wayne,

I think you may be trying to balance the wants with the affordability...

Many of us would love to add a full digital display full of av data...

Its the 100amu Of Cost That comes with it that makes it a big challenge.

Dynon is really making it interesting...

Best regards,

-a-

[82Mike]

6 hours ago, Bennett said:

You don’t need to buy a new J. There are many decent airframes in the fleet. I won’t go over all the details (see the achieves on MS), but I bought a fairly well maintained 1983 J, which I brought up to LASAR, with instructions to essentially replace all the wear parts, and make sure the airframe was as close to “remanufactured” as possible. The airplane was at LASAR for several months, and the airframe was as good as new. I then flew the airplane to

ArtCraft in Santa Maria for a complete strip and paint in 5 colors, airbrushed stripes, etc. to their highest standards. Then off to Executive Aircraft Maintenance in Scottsdale for a complete new panel with Garmin “everything”, plus backups and multiple redundancies. Next I flew the airplane to Tim at Pine Mountain Lake (Aircraft Designs) who stripped out the old interior and using Aircraft honeycomb, Kevlar, carbon fiber, and leather, built an interior that matched my SL500. The airplane was featured in AvWeb and other publications. The point here is that it was all done for about $225,000, (including a Top Overhaul of a mid time engine), and from a functional basis, I ended up with a better than new Mooney J at a fraction of the cost that it would cost to build, let alone sell, a new J. Some of the work done was a bit “over the top”, and a similar refurbishment could be accomplished for less. No, I don’t expect to get my money back when I sell her (in the too distant future - I’m 83 this year), but I am sure that she will sell easily to someone who appreciates the J model.

 

 

 

 

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Bennett,

You and I think so much alike.  I bought 133DB for $95k almost 5 years ago.  First I started working on the airframe to make sure it was perfect.  I then added a GTN 750, 1 tube aspen, and a JPI830 (this was a mistake on my part as I ended up wanting primary and had to put in the JPI900).  Then I zero timed my engine at Airmark in Ft. Lauderdale.  Now I bought the plane with really nice interior (no quite as nice as yours, but for sure 8 or 9 out of 10).  Then came a 1 piece belly, new landing gear pucks, new glass throughout.  The. I had a new panel designed 3 tube aspen, JPI900, G5 so the vacuum system is gone.  ADSB in and out, LED all around.  Then off to Hawk for a tremendous paint job.  Mine is probably a step below yours but it is one of the nicest I have ever seen.  I probably have $200k in it.  Will I ever get that back?  No, but I have basically a brand new Mooney that I can fly for many years (I am 56).  I am going to add more.  A Garmin GFC500 or 600 when I can.  Speed brakes and passenger side brakes this annual.  Point is, for let’s say $225 you can have every bit as much Plane as what would cost $500 or $600 to build new Today.  We need to take our planes to the same place someday just to see how they compare

[Bennett]

That would be fun. I’ve also have the LoPresti cowl, the one piece belly pan, and most of the available speed mods. I wish I was your age to justify some new of the newest Gamin avionics. I will add the voice control for the GTNs now that LASAR has an avionics Unit.


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[gsxrpilot]

@Bennett and @82Mike This is exactly what I'm planning with my 252. Before I retire, I'd like to get my 252 back to a fully restored, as close to brand new as possible condition. Then retire and fly it as much as possible until I can no longer hold a medical.

JD at SWTA and I are currently working on an interesting upgrade... I can't speak about it yet as it is a prototype. But hope to get clearance to post some pictures in the near future. 

[82Mike]

1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

@Bennett and @82Mike This is exactly what I'm planning with my 252. Before I retire, I'd like to get my 252 back to a fully restored, as close to brand new as possible condition. Then retire and fly it as much as possible until I can no longer hold a medical.

JD at SWTA and I are currently working on an interesting upgrade... I can't speak about it yet as it is a prototype. But hope to get clearance to post some pictures in the near future. 

J.D. and Laura are the greatest.  Please say hi for me. He has helped me so much.  Can’t wait to see your prototype!

[steingar]

I’m with Bennet on this. You spend the coin to make your old airframe better than new.  No, you’ll never recoup you costs, but I bet you still won’t loose as much as you will in the depreciation of a new aircraft.  Had I the money that’s the way I’d go.